Informations Rapides · 28 May 2025 · n° 133

In the first quarter of 2025, GDP rebounded moderately (+0.1%) and household purchasing power increased slightly (+0.1% per consumption unit) Quarterly national accounts - detailed figures - first quarter 2025

In the first quarter of 2025, real gross domestic product (GDP) rebounded moderately (+0.1% after rounding).

The purchasing power of household gross disposable income (GDI) per consumption unit continued to rise (+0.1% after +0.1%). The household savings rate rose again, to 18.8% of GDI, after 18.5% in the previous quarter.

The profit margin of non-financial corporations (NFCs) fell slightly in the first quarter of 2025 to 31.8% of their value added, after 32.0% in the previous quarter.

In the first quarter of 2025, real GDP* rebounded moderately (+0.1% quarter on quarter after -0.1%). Household consumption fell back (-0.2% after +0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024), pulled down in particular by the drop in spending on transport equipment (-4.0% after +2.5%). Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) was again stable in the first quarter of 2025 (0.0% after 0.0%): the further decline in construction GFCF (-0.9% after -0.5%) was offset by the dynamism of information and communication GFCF (+2.0% after +0.5%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventories made a negative contribution to GDP growth this quarter (-0.1 points after +0.2 points).

Exports fell sharply in the first quarter of 2025 (-1.8% after +0.7%), due to the sharp drop in exports of transport equipment and chemical products. Imports rose again (+0.5% after +0.6%), boosted by imports of energy, particularly gas and electricity, and of “other industrial products” (in particular metallurgy, pharmaceuticals and jewellery). Overall, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was strongly negative in the first quarter of 2025 (-0.8 points after 0.0 points).

Finally, the contribution of changes in inventories to GDP growth was clearly positive this quarter (+1.0 point after -0.3 points in Q4 2024). This contribution comes from chemical, pharmaceutical and food products, and other transport equipment.

Household gross disposable income (GDI) in current euros rebounded in the first quarter of 2025, rising by 0.8% after -0.2% in the previous quarter. Social benefits were again buoyant this quarter (+1.0% after +0.8%), reflecting the 2.2% revaluation of basic pensions on 1st January. Total wages and salaries received by households rose at the same rate as in the previous quarter (+0.4%, after +0.4%). Taxes paid by households were dynamic (+2.5% after -0.4%), driven by income tax.

At the same time, the price of household consumption rebounded (+0.5% after -0.4%, SA-WDA). As a result, the purchasing power of household GDI increased by 0.3% this quarter, as in the previous quarter. Measured per consumption unit, in order to bring it down to an individual level, it increased slightly (+0.1% after +0.1%).

The household savings rate rose again, as a result of the fall in consumption in volume terms and the increase in purchasing power; it stood at 18.8%, after 18.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The total number of hours worked continued to fall in the first quarter of 2025 (-0.4%, after -0.2% in the previous quarter). This decline is explained by the fall in total employment (-0.3% after -0.1%), while the number of hours worked per job also fell (-0.2% after -0.1%), in line with a rise in sick leave.

In the first quarter of 2025, the profit margin of non-financial corporations (NFCs) fell slightly to 31.8%, compared with 32.0% in the previous quarter. This slight decline reflects the fall in the price of value added, which was driven down by electricity and freight prices, as well as by the reduction in subsidies. Conversely, productivity is recovering and making a positive contribution to the change in the margin rate, while the contribution from the rise in real wages is slightly negative. The margin rate is falling mainly in the energy and transport services sectors, where it has reached a high level.

In the first quarter of 2025, the general government borrowing requirement fell by 0.2 points of GDP. It stood at 5.6% of GDP after 5.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Government revenues increased by €2.1bn, driven by the rebound in income and wealth tax receipts. Public spending was also up (+€0.8bn), but less than revenues. It was driven by operating expenditure (+€1.1 bn), and to a lesser extent by social benefits (+€0.5bn) due to the revaluation of basic pensions on 1st January. This increase was offset by a drop in subsidies paid (-€0.6bn).

GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 was not revised (after rounding). The contribution of foreign trade to quarterly GDP growth was lowered to -0.8 points from -0.4 points in the first estimate. Exports had in fact been revised sharply downwards, while imports had been raised slightly. As a mirror, the contribution of changes in inventories was revised upwards to +1.0 point (compared with +0.5 points in the first estimate). The contribution of final domestic demand to growth was revised downwards by 0.1 points, due to a downward revision in household consumption (-0.2% instead of a stability).

Since the previous publication, the quarterly accounts have been recalibrated to the annual accounts (2022 definitive, 2023 semi-definitive and 2024 provisional). In addition, the models used to estimate the quarterly accounts have been reviewed, as they are every year when the detailed results for the first quarter are published.