Informations Rapides · 30 April 2025 · n° 109

GDP rebounded moderately in Q1 2025 (+0.1% after -0.1%) Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - first quarter 2025

Gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms* rebounded moderately in the first quarter of 2025, increasing by +0.1% after a fall of 0.1% in the fourth quarter (as a knock-on effect of the Paris Olympic and Paralympic Games).

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) stalled (contribution of 0.0 point after +0.2 points in Q4 2024), as was household consumption (0.0% after +0.2%). Gross fixed capital formation was down again (-0.2% after -0.1%).

Foreign trade kept contributing negatively to GDP growth in the first quarter (-0.4 points after -0.1 points): exports fell sharply this quarter (-0.7% after +0.2%), while imports rose again (+0.4% after +0.5%).

Finally, changes in inventories made a positive contribution to GDP this quarter: +0.5 points after -0.2 points in Q4 2024.

Total production (goods and services) increased in the first quarter of 2025, rising by +0.2% after +0.1% in the previous quarter.

Production in the manufacturing industry accelerated this quarter (+0.4% after +0.1%). Production in the food and beverage industries accelerated sharply (+1.6% after +0.9%), driven by beverage manufacturing. Production of transport equipment also rose sharply this quarter (+1.4% after +0.1%), but remains 5% below its level at the end of 2023. Conversely, production fell back in the capital goods sector (-0.8% after +0.5%), particularly in electrical equipment manufacturing, and in refining (-3.2% after +6.8%). Electricity production was also down this quarter.

Production of market services rebounded in the first quarter (+0.4% after +0.1% in the previous quarter). Production picked up again in household services (+0.5% after the 2.5% drop in the previous quarter as a knock-on effect of the Olympic and Paralympic Games). It accelerated in business services (+0.6% after +0.2%) in the wake of the rebound in industrial production in the first quarter.

Conversely, production continued to fall in construction (-0.5% after -0.7%).

Household consumption was stable in the first quarter of 2025 (after +0.2%).

Purchases of goods declined in the first quarter (-0.6% after +0.1%), penalized by the drop in consumption of transport equipment (-4.4% after +2.6%). This can be explained by the reduction in the ecological bonus for electric or hydrogen-powered vehicles at the end of 2024, the introduction of new vehicle standards in January 2025, and the tightening of the ecological penalty in March.

Food consumption (including tobacco) also fell this quarter (-0.8% after +0.1%). This sharp decline is due in particular to the drop in tobacco purchases following the price hike in January. Excluding tobacco, consumption also fell (-0.2% after 0.0%).

By contrast, household consumption of services picked up (+0.5% after -0.1%). It rebounded in household services (+0.3% after the sharp decline of 6.1% in Q4 2024 as a knock-on effect of the Olympic and Paralympic Games). Consumption of transport services was dynamic (+1.0% after +0.4%). Conversely, consumption of accommodation and catering services slowed in the first quarter (+0.2% after +0.5%), as did consumption of information and communications services (+0.5% after +0.9%).

Total GFCF fell again in the first quarter of 2025 (-0.2% after -0.1%). Investment in construction continued to fall this quarter (-0.8% after -0.9%), while GFCF in manufactured goods fell back (-0.5% after a stability).

Investment in manufactured goods was penalized by the sharp decline in GFCF for capital goods (-1.6% after -0.3%) and other manufactured goods (-1.1% after -1.2%). Conversely, GFCF for transport equipment remained dynamic (+1.3% after +1.4%). Investment in construction went sharply down again (-0.8% after -0.9%). In services excluding construction, investment was dynamic (+0.9% after +1.0%), driven by investment in information and communications (+1.1% after +0.3%).

The contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth remained negative in Q1 2025 (-0.4 points, after -0.1 points in the previous quarter).

Exports fell sharply in the first quarter of 2025 (-0.7% after +0.2%), led by manufacturing exports (-1.2% after +1.7%). In particular, exports were down sharply in the chemicals and automotive industries. Electricity exports also fell sharply this quarter. By contrast, exports of other transport equipment rebounded, because of the delivery of a cruise ship. Exports of services were stable (after -2.3%).

Imports rose again this quarter (+0.4% after +0.5%). They were driven in particular by an acceleration in the “other manufacturing industry” (in particular metallurgy, pharmaceuticals and jewellery), and by a further rise in imports of agricultural products. Electricity imports were also up this quarter. Conversely, automobile imports continued to fall.

Inventory changes contributed positively to GDP growth this quarter: +0.5 points, after ‑0.2 points in Q4 2024. This contribution comes from chemicals, pharmaceuticals and food products.

The estimate of GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 is not revised (after rounding). Growth for 2024 is unrevised (after rounding to one decimal place), estimated at +1.1% for the sum of the four quarters. The profit margin of non-financial corporations has been revised up by 0.2 percentage points (after rounding) in the third and fourth quarters of 2024, to 32.6% and 32.4% respectively. On the other hand, agent accounts have been calibrated to the general government accounts published at the end of March.

Since the previous publication, new information has been incorporated, and the coefficients for seasonal adjustment (CVS) and working-day adjustment (CJO) have been updated.

In the next publication on 28 May 2025, the quarterly accounts will be revised following the recalibration of the annual accounts (2022 definitive, 2023 semi-definitive and 2024 provisional), published on the same date. In addition, the estimation models for the quarterly financial statements will be reviewed, as they are every year, when the detailed results for the first quarter are published.