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Informations Rapides · 23 August 2024 · n° 207
Informations rapidesIn August 2024, the business climate in services has partially recovered Monthly survey of services - August 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in August 2024, the business climate in services has partially rebounded. At 98, the indicator that synthesizes it has gained back three points after losing six points the previous month and remains below its long-term average (100). This increase is mainly the result of the rebound in the forward-looking balances of opinion on demand and on workforce size. The business climate has especially improved in accommodation and food services.

Informations rapides
No 207
Paru le :Paru le23/08/2024
Prochaine parution le : 21/02/2025 at 08:45 - February 2025

According to the business managers surveyed in August 2024, the business climate in services has partially rebounded. At 98, the indicator that synthesizes it has gained back three points after losing six points the previous month and remains below its long-term average (100). This increase is mainly the result of the rebound in the forward-looking balances of opinion on demand and on workforce size. The business climate has especially improved in accommodation and food services.

Business climate composite indicator

Business climate composite indicator
Business climate composite indicator
2024-08 97.8
2024-07 95.1
2024-06 101.0
2024-05 102.4
2024-04 100.1
2024-03 101.7
2024-02 99.9
2024-01 101.1
2023-12 100.2
2023-11 100.0
2023-10 100.4
2023-09 101.4
2023-08 101.6
2023-07 101.5
2023-06 101.5
2023-05 101.4
2023-04 102.9
2023-03 103.5
2023-02 105.2
2023-01 104.0
2022-12 103.5
2022-11 103.8
2022-10 104.9
2022-09 105.5
2022-08 106.5
2022-07 106.0
2022-06 107.3
2022-05 108.9
2022-04 108.3
2022-03 107.9
2022-02 111.9
2022-01 104.9
2021-12 107.3
2021-11 113.9
2021-10 113.1
2021-09 110.4
2021-08 108.9
2021-07 111.1
2021-06 112.5
2021-05 106.8
2021-04 91.4
2021-03 93.2
2021-02 87.7
2021-01 90.8
2020-12 89.2
2020-11 75.7
2020-10 87.6
2020-09 93.8
2020-08 93.7
2020-07 88.7
2020-06 77.6
2020-05 49.5
2020-04 38.2
2020-03 91.7
2020-02 105.8
2020-01 106.0
2019-12 106.4
2019-11 105.9
2019-10 105.5
2019-09 105.9
2019-08 105.4
2019-07 104.9
2019-06 105.7
2019-05 105.5
2019-04 105.5
2019-03 104.4
2019-02 103.6
2019-01 103.5
2018-12 101.7
2018-11 103.5
2018-10 103.2
2018-09 104.6
2018-08 104.4
2018-07 104.6
2018-06 104.6
2018-05 104.3
2018-04 105.8
2018-03 106.8
2018-02 106.8
2018-01 107.7
2017-12 108.8
2017-11 107.1
2017-10 106.6
2017-09 106.7
2017-08 106.7
2017-07 104.0
2017-06 103.5
2017-05 102.8
2017-04 103.1
2017-03 103.1
2017-02 102.9
2017-01 101.7
2016-12 103.6
2016-11 100.9
2016-10 100.8
2016-09 100.7
2016-08 100.1
2016-07 100.3
2016-06 99.1
2016-05 100.7
2016-04 98.3
2016-03 99.5
2016-02 99.9
2016-01 100.2
2015-12 97.1
2015-11 99.2
2015-10 99.4
2015-09 97.6
2015-08 98.5
2015-07 97.4
2015-06 96.8
2015-05 95.4
2015-04 93.9
2015-03 92.3
2015-02 91.4
2015-01 91.1
2014-12 91.3
2014-11 91.2
2014-10 91.1
2014-09 91.0
2014-08 91.5
2014-07 92.4
2014-06 92.2
2014-05 92.2
2014-04 93.2
2014-03 93.1
2014-02 92.2
2014-01 92.2
2013-12 90.8
2013-11 92.4
2013-10 91.8
2013-09 92.3
2013-08 88.7
2013-07 86.6
2013-06 85.9
2013-05 84.5
2013-04 83.2
2013-03 84.1
2013-02 87.0
2013-01 88.1
2012-12 87.1
2012-11 85.5
2012-10 86.0
2012-09 87.1
2012-08 87.4
2012-07 89.5
2012-06 90.0
2012-05 92.0
2012-04 95.6
2012-03 93.2
2012-02 91.9
2012-01 92.4
2011-12 94.5
2011-11 95.0
2011-10 97.2
2011-09 98.3
2011-08 100.5
2011-07 105.1
2011-06 107.1
2011-05 107.4
2011-04 108.9
2011-03 110.3
2011-02 109.2
2011-01 107.2
2010-12 106.8
2010-11 104.8
2010-10 102.9
2010-09 101.7
2010-08 100.7
2010-07 99.2
2010-06 98.3
2010-05 99.3
2010-04 97.8
2010-03 94.4
2010-02 94.3
2010-01 94.0
2009-12 92.6
2009-11 92.2
2009-10 90.6
2009-09 87.5
2009-08 84.1
2009-07 81.6
2009-06 77.8
2009-05 73.2
2009-04 68.9
2009-03 68.4
2009-02 73.5
2009-01 74.7
2008-12 77.3
2008-11 80.2
2008-10 84.2
2008-09 92.9
2008-08 94.9
2008-07 96.4
2008-06 100.8
2008-05 104.1
2008-04 106.6
2008-03 108.4
2008-02 108.5
2008-01 110.4
2007-12 109.0
2007-11 110.1
2007-10 110.0
2007-09 111.5
2007-08 112.3
2007-07 113.1
2007-06 112.7
2007-05 112.9
2007-04 113.0
2007-03 113.3
2007-02 112.4
2007-01 110.9
2006-12 111.2
2006-11 113.0
2006-10 110.7
2006-09 110.6
2006-08 110.5
2006-07 110.4
2006-06 109.1
2006-05 110.4
2006-04 107.7
2006-03 107.4
2006-02 106.2
2006-01 109.1
2005-12 107.0
2005-11 106.5
2005-10 108.3
2005-09 106.8
2005-08 107.1
2005-07 107.5
2005-06 108.2
2005-05 106.1
2005-04 108.0
2005-03 108.3
2005-02 106.4
2005-01 106.4

Business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

The demand outlook and the expected workforce size have picked up

In August 2024, the business managers in services are less pessimistic than in the previous month about their business outlook. The balance of opinion on the expected demand has sharply increased, and the one related to the expected activity over the next three months too, but to a lesser extent. Both remain below their long-term average and below their June level though. The one concerning the general business outlook for the sector is virtually stable, below its average. The balance on the economic uncertainty felt has sharply retreated.

The balance of opinion related to the activity over the past three months is stable and remains below its average level.

The balance related to the recent selling prices change is stable, whereas the one on their expected change has diminished again, at its lowest level since June 2021. Both of them remain nonetheless above their respective average.

Expected prices in services

Expected prices in services
Expected prices
2024-08 0.9
2024-07 2.9
2024-06 4.3
2024-05 2.8
2024-04 7.2
2024-03 8.2
2024-02 7.7
2024-01 6.8
2023-12 7.0
2023-11 3.7
2023-10 5.3
2023-09 7.6
2023-08 6.9
2023-07 6.3
2023-06 6.2
2023-05 7.0
2023-04 13.4
2023-03 14.1
2023-02 15.8
2023-01 19.1
2022-12 17.3
2022-11 12.4
2022-10 12.2
2022-09 10.4
2022-08 10.3
2022-07 10.9
2022-06 10.9
2022-05 9.9
2022-04 11.6
2022-03 7.7
2022-02 8.0
2022-01 7.4
2021-12 6.5
2021-11 6.3
2021-10 4.4
2021-09 3.3
2021-08 4.0
2021-07 3.8
2021-06 0.6
2021-05 -1.1
2021-04 -8.6
2021-03 -7.6
2021-02 -11.5
2021-01 -9.8
2020-12 -7.3
2020-11 -13.0
2020-10 -9.0
2020-09 -3.4
2020-08 -5.4
2020-07 -8.6
2020-06 -12.6
2020-05 -22.9
2020-04 -23.1
2020-03 -3.4
2020-02 0.5
2020-01 0.1
2019-12 0.8
2019-11 -0.4
2019-10 1.6
2019-09 -1.1
2019-08 -1.1
2019-07 0.1
2019-06 0.2
2019-05 -2.0
2019-04 -2.5
2019-03 -1.0
2019-02 -2.3
2019-01 -2.2
2018-12 0.3
2018-11 -2.5
2018-10 -2.9
2018-09 -2.1
2018-08 -0.7
2018-07 -6.8
2018-06 -4.8
2018-05 -2.2
2018-04 -3.0
2018-03 -3.2
2018-02 -3.4
2018-01 -2.4
2017-12 -3.3
2017-11 -2.7
2017-10 -2.5
2017-09 -2.4
2017-08 -5.6
2017-07 -7.0
2017-06 -4.2
2017-05 -5.1
2017-04 -5.3
2017-03 -3.7
2017-02 -3.2
2017-01 -6.3
2016-12 -5.5
2016-11 -7.7
2016-10 -6.8
2016-09 -4.8
2016-08 -5.2
2016-07 -4.7
2016-06 -6.8
2016-05 -6.2
2016-04 -4.9
2016-03 -5.1
2016-02 -4.6
2016-01 -8.5
2015-12 -8.9
2015-11 -5.8
2015-10 -5.9
2015-09 -7.5
2015-08 -6.4
2015-07 -6.9
2015-06 -6.1
2015-05 -6.2
2015-04 -7.8
2015-03 -9.8
2015-02 -9.7
2015-01 -11.4
2014-12 -11.0
2014-11 -10.3
2014-10 -9.5
2014-09 -10.6
2014-08 -9.0
2014-07 -9.2
2014-06 -9.3
2014-05 -9.9
2014-04 -9.6
2014-03 -10.8
2014-02 -11.0
2014-01 -8.4
2013-12 -9.4
2013-11 -8.5
2013-10 -10.1
2013-09 -10.4
2013-08 -10.7
2013-07 -12.3
2013-06 -12.0
2013-05 -12.3
2013-04 -12.3
2013-03 -12.0
2013-02 -11.9
2013-01 -9.8
2012-12 -9.2
2012-11 -9.6
2012-10 -11.0
2012-09 -7.6
2012-08 -7.8
2012-07 -4.3
2012-06 -6.0
2012-05 -5.6
2012-04 -4.2
2012-03 -0.7
2012-02 -3.4
2012-01 0.5
2011-12 -2.3
2011-11 -4.3
2011-10 -3.0
2011-09 -1.6
2011-08 -1.5
2011-07 -0.3
2011-06 0.5
2011-05 5.1
2011-04 2.4
2011-03 3.5
2011-02 3.3
2011-01 -0.1
2010-12 0.0
2010-11 -1.1
2010-10 -0.9
2010-09 -3.1
2010-08 -3.8
2010-07 -7.7
2010-06 -5.4
2010-05 -5.7
2010-04 -7.8
2010-03 -7.5
2010-02 -9.0
2010-01 -8.5
2009-12 -10.1
2009-11 -10.1
2009-10 -9.4
2009-09 -12.4
2009-08 -14.4
2009-07 -18.5
2009-06 -15.4
2009-05 -17.8
2009-04 -17.7
2009-03 -17.1
2009-02 -13.1
2009-01 -13.1
2008-12 -13.8
2008-11 -9.6
2008-10 -2.7
2008-09 0.3
2008-08 1.5
2008-07 3.4
2008-06 3.2
2008-05 3.4
2008-04 3.9
2008-03 2.6
2008-02 2.1
2008-01 2.2
2007-12 3.0
2007-11 2.7
2007-10 1.3
2007-09 2.3
2007-08 3.2
2007-07 3.4
2007-06 2.1
2007-05 2.9
2007-04 2.2
2007-03 1.5
2007-02 1.1
2007-01 1.8

Expected prices in services

  • Source: INSEE

The balance of opinion on the change in the expected workforce size over the next three months has sharply rebounded and has moved closer to its average. Conversely, the one on the workforce size over the last three months has significantly retreated, remaining well below its own.

Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Average* May 2024 June 2024 July 2024 Aug. 2024
Composite indicator 100 102 101 95 98
General outlook -7 -5 -5 -10 -9
Past activity 2 5 -4 -1 -1
Expected activity 2 4 1 -3 -1
Expected demand 0 2 4 -10 -3
Past selling prices -3 9 5 3 3
Expected selling prices -2 3 4 3 1
Past employment 2 1 -8 -7 -11
     Past employment except temporary work agencies 0 0 -3 -6 -7
Expected employment 2 0 1 -10 -2
     Expected employment except temporary work agencies 0 2 -2 -5 -3
Economic uncertainty felt** 12 11 9 14 10
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
  • ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

The business climate has sharply improved in accommodation and food services, those of other sub-sectors remain below their long-term average

In August 2024, the business climate in accommodation and food services has sharply improved, moving away from its long-term average. In particular, the forward-looking balances of opinion on the demand, on the activity and on the workforce size have sharply rebounded. Conversely, those on the past workforce size and activity have decreased.

In real estate activities, the business climate has brightened without reaching back its long-term average. The balances of opinion on the past activity, on the general business outlook and especially on the past workforce size have significantly risen, whereas the one on the expected workforce size has strongly declined.

Similarly, in administrative and support services, the business climate indicator has rebounded but remains significantly weakened. This improvement results mainly from the very sharp rebound of the balance of opinion on the expected workforce size, particularly low the previous month.

In road freight transport, the business climate indicator is stable for the third month in a row, a little below its average level. The increase of the balances on the expected workforce size and on the general business outlook has been offset by the decrease of the one on the expected activity.

In information-communication, the business climate indicator has struggled to get back to its level of the first semester: in August, it remains stable below its long-term average. In particular, the balance on the recent activity has improved, whereas the one on the expected activity has diminished and moved below its average.

Finally, in professional, scientific and technical activities the business climate indicator is also stable, below its average level.

Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Average* May 2024 June 2024 July 2024 Aug. 2024
Road transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 100 98 98 98
General outlook -18 -25 -20 -27 -25
Past activity -6 -8 -12 -19 -19
Expected activity -7 -2 -10 -10 -11
Expected demand -9 -12 -14 -12 -12
Past employment -5 -8 -6 -4 -5
Expected employment -6 -8 -10 -9 -6
Accommodation and food service activities (8%)
Composite indicator 100 109 104 102 106
General outlook -13 -3 -5 -5 -8
Past activity -7 4 -2 4 -23
Expected activity -7 1 -3 -11 5
Expected demand -9 10 -5 -7 9
Past employment -5 8 0 -5 -14
Expected employment -6 1 -9 -12 0
Information and communication (29%)
Composite indicator 100 107 103 97 97
General outlook 0 4 2 -3 -1
Past activity 8 26 6 11 18
Expected activity 9 25 18 14 6
Expected demand 10 20 22 -7 7
Past employment 6 6 0 -5 -4
Expected employment 10 10 7 1 -5
Real estate activities (10%)
Composite indicator 100 97 97 92 95
General outlook -4 -6 -1 -9 -4
Past activity 6 1 2 4 8
Expected activity 6 7 4 -1 0
Expected demand 1 8 0 -2 -4
Past employment 2 -10 -8 -7 4
Expected employment 3 2 0 2 -5
Professional, scientific and technical activities (25%)
Composite indicator 100 100 100 96 96
General outlook -8 -5 -7 -12 -12
Past activity -1 -5 -3 -6 -2
Expected activity -2 -5 -5 -7 -7
Expected demand -5 -6 -6 -11 -12
Past employment 1 -4 -3 -2 -1
Expected employment 1 2 3 -1 -1
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 94 98 91 93
General outlook -3 -4 -3 -5 -3
Past activity 5 1 -9 -6 -10
Expected activity 5 -6 1 -10 -6
Expected demand 3 -8 2 -6 -6
Past employment 7 0 -19 -10 -15
Expected employment 7 -4 6 -28 -4
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

Revision

The business climate indicator in services of July 2024 has not been revised (after rounding).

For further information

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

The responses to this survey were collected between 26 July 2024 and 20 August 2024; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 20 September 2024 at 8:45 am.

Pour en savoir plus

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

The responses to this survey were collected between 26 July 2024 and 20 August 2024; most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 20 September 2024 at 8:45 am.

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