Informations Rapides · 30 July 2024 · n° 188

GDP increased by 0.3% in Q2 2024  Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - second quarter 2024

Real gross domestic product (GDP)* increased in Q2 2024 (+0.3% after +0.3% in the previous quarter).

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) picked up slightly and made a positive contribution to GDP growth this quarter (+0.1 point after 0.0 point in the first quarter of 2024), due to the slight rebound in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, +0.1% after -0.4%). Household consumption was stable this quarter (0.0% after -0.1%).

Foreign trade also made a positive contribution to growth in Q2 2024 (+0.2 point after +0.3 point). Imports were stable (0.0% after -0.3%), while exports remained dynamic (+0.6% after +0.7%).

Finally, changes in inventories made no contribution to GDP growth again this quarter (0.0 points after 0.0 points in the first quarter of 2024).

* Volumes are measured at previous year's prices, chain-linked and adjusted for seasonal variations and working day effects (SA-WDA).

Total production (goods and services) rebounded in Q2 2024 (+0.5% after -0.1% in the previous quarter).

Agricultural output fell this quarter. Manufacturing industry output fell again this quarter (-0.4% after -0.7%): production continued to decline in transport equipment (-1.0% after -4.4%), and fell in other manufactured products (-0.6% after +0.2%) and in food industry (-0.7% after +3.6%). On the other hand, production rebounded sharply in coking and refining (+5.3% after -8.7%).

Construction output fell again (-0.7% after -1.1%), for the fourth consecutive quarter.

By contrast, the output of market services remained dynamic this quarter (+0.8% after +0.7%), driven by increases in business services (+1.2% after +0.8%), accommodation and catering (+0.7% after +0.1%), and information and communication (+1.4% after +1.6%).

Household consumption was stable in Q2 2024 (0.0% after -0.1%). Purchases of goods stagnated this quarter (0.0% after -0.1%). In detail, food consumption fell (-1.6% after -0.1%), as did fuel consumption (-1.0% after +1.8%). Conversely, consumption of gas and electricity accelerated (+3.5% after +0.3%), due to a cooler spring than in previous years, and consumption of transport equipment, particularly cars, rebounded (+1.6% after -3.5%).

Household consumption of services rose by 0.5% this quarter, at a faster rate than in the previous quarter (+0.3%). It was driven by the acceleration in consumption of transport services (+1.8% after +0.6%) and accommodation and restaurant services (+0.8% after +0.1%).

The territorial correction pulled down household consumption in Q2 2024, as in the first. This is because spending by non-residents in France is increasing faster than spending by French residents abroad.

Total GFCF picked up slightly in Q2 2024 (+0.1% after -0.4%). GFCF in market services accelerated (+1.7% after +0.5%) while the GFCF for manufactured products continued to fall (-1.0% after -0.6%).

The acceleration in investment in market services was driven by the dynamism of investment in information and communication (+2.3% after +2.3%) and the rebound in investment in legal, scientific, technical, administrative and support services (+1.2% after -0.9%).

In manufactured goods, investment decreased in transport equipment (-0.7% after 0.0%) and capital goods (-1.6% after -1.2%).

Investment in construction fell again this quarter (-0.6% after -0.9%), particularly in the building sector.

Foreign trade made a positive contribution to GDP growth in Q2 2024 (+0.2 points, after +0.3 points in the previous quarter).

Imports were stable this quarter (+0.0% after -0.3%). They were dragged down by imports of manufactured goods (-0.4% after +0.6%), particularly transport equipment (-2.4% after +1.3%). Conversely, imports of legal, scientific, technical, administrative and support services recovered (+0.5% after -2.2%).

Exports remained dynamic in Q2 2024 (+0.6% after +0.7%). They were risen by transport equipment (+1.8% after +1.5%), due to the delivery of a new ship, and “other manufactured goods” (+0.7% after +3.5%). Conversely, exports of services fell again (-0.7% after -1.1%).

Changes in inventories did not contribute to GDP growth this quarter: 0.0 point, as in Q1 2024.

The GDP growth estimate is revised upwards (after rounding) by 0.1 points in both the first quarter of 2024 and the fourth quarter of 2023; to +0.3% in the first quarter of 2024 and +0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023. In detail, the contribution of foreign trade is revised upwards by 0.1 points in the first quarter of 2024 and in the fourth quarter of 2023, due to revisions to the balance of payments in services. The contribution of final domestic demand (excluding inventories) is revised downwards by 0.1 points in the first quarter of 2024 and is not revised in the fourth quarter of 2023. The revised contribution of inventory changes offset some of these revisions in both quarters.

Since the previous publication, new information has been incorporated and the seasonal adjustment (SA) and working day adjustment (WDA) coefficients have been updated.