Insee
Informations Rapides · 25 July 2024 · n° 181
Informations rapidesIn July 2024, the business climate has deteriorated in wholesale trade Bimonthly survey of wholesaling - July 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2024, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated. At 92, the composite indicator has lost three points compared to May 2024, and remains for the tenth two-month period in a row below its long-term average (100). This deterioration reflects in particular the decrease of the balances of opinion concerning the general business outlook and the past sales.

Informations rapides
No 181
Paru le :Paru le25/07/2024
Prochaine parution le : 21/11/2024 at 08:45 - November 2024
Warning

The seasonal coefficients as well as the parameters of the composite indicators have been updated in July 2024. That has led to revisions in the set of results previously published from this survey. Those revisions are for the most part quite minor and have no impact on the analysis of the business situation.

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2024, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated. At 92, the composite indicator has lost three points compared to May 2024, and remains for the tenth two-month period in a row below its long-term average (100). This deterioration reflects in particular the decrease of the balances of opinion concerning the general business outlook and the past sales.

Composite indicator

Composite indicator
Composite indicator
2024-B4 92.4
2024-B3 95.3
2024-B2 95.9
2024-B1 91.6
2023-B6 91.9
2023-B5 93.8
2023-B4 92.8
2023-B3 94.8
2023-B2 98.6
2023-B1 97.6
2022-B6 100.4
2022-B5 96.0
2022-B4 100.8
2022-B3 101.7
2022-B2 105.3
2022-B1 116.3
2021-B6 113.3
2021-B5 108.7
2021-B4 112.6
2021-B3 110.3
2021-B2 99.1
2021-B1 96.8
2020-B6 85.7
2020-B5 89.4
2020-B4 78.2
2020-B3 66.5
2020-B2 96.8
2020-B1 105.2
2019-B6 105.9
2019-B5 106.2
2019-B4 105.2
2019-B3 107.4
2019-B2 105.7
2019-B1 100.9
2018-B6 103.5
2018-B5 103.6
2018-B4 101.5
2018-B3 104.8
2018-B2 109.5
2018-B1 108.7
2017-B6 110.7
2017-B5 108.5
2017-B4 108.8
2017-B3 104.5
2017-B2 102.8
2017-B1 105.0
2016-B6 98.1
2016-B5 97.4
2016-B4 103.1
2016-B3 101.8
2016-B2 99.6
2016-B1 102.5
2015-B6 101.7
2015-B5 99.4
2015-B4 102.0
2015-B3 101.0
2015-B2 96.3
2015-B1 95.7
2014-B6 95.3
2014-B5 90.8
2014-B4 96.1
2014-B3 97.8
2014-B2 98.0
2014-B1 97.1
2013-B6 97.8
2013-B5 97.0
2013-B4 87.5
2013-B3 87.7
2013-B2 88.3
2013-B1 88.9
2012-B6 89.0
2012-B5 90.9
2012-B4 94.8
2012-B3 92.8
2012-B2 99.4
2012-B1 95.4
2011-B6 96.0
2011-B5 100.2
2011-B4 106.0
2011-B3 107.4
2011-B2 108.3
2011-B1 106.2
2010-B6 104.6
2010-B5 105.2
2010-B4 100.5
2010-B3 94.6
2010-B2 85.1
2010-B1 85.1
2009-B6 77.9
2009-B5 76.4
2009-B4 70.8
2009-B3 68.6
2009-B2 67.2
2009-B1 79.1
2008-B6 84.0
2008-B5 94.3
2008-B4 96.7
2008-B3 101.6
2008-B2 106.8
2008-B1 107.5
2007-B6 109.0
2007-B5 111.7
2007-B4 107.7
2007-B3 110.6
2007-B2 111.8
2007-B1 108.2
2006-B6 110.2
2006-B5 107.0
2006-B4 107.5
2006-B3 102.0
2006-B2 99.3
2006-B1 103.8
2005-B6 99.5
2005-B5 94.8
2005-B4 96.1
2005-B3 92.4
2005-B2 97.5
2005-B1 100.8

Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.

The balance of opinion related to the general business outlook has fallen strongly

In July 2024, the balance of opinion of wholesalers regarding the general business outlook has fallen strongly and has reached its lowest level since November 2020. The one on the past sales has diminished again sharply and has moved away from its average. This decline can be clearly seen in the sub-sectors of the wholesale trade of food products and beverages, of information and communication equipment, of “other industrial capital goods” and in “other specialised wholesale trade”.

The balance on the received merchandise, whatever their origin, is almost stable, well below its long-term average.

Finally, the balance on the ordering intentions has diminished, as well as the one specific to the orderings from abroad; both balances have moved away from their long-term average.

Economic outlook in the wholesale trade sector

Balances of opinion in %, S.A.
Economic outlook in the wholesale trade sector (Balances of opinion in %, S.A.)
Ave. (1) Jan. 24 Mar. 24 May 24 July 24
Business climate 100 92 96 95 92
General business outlook -23 -30 -27 -24 -41
Sales -14 -27 -25 -24 -28
   export sales -15 -18 -12 -18 -19
Received merchandise -10 -21 -21 -22 -22
   received from abroad -11 -22 -15 -16 -17
Ordering intentions -15 -21 -17 -17 -19
   ordering from abroad -15 -19 -14 -16 -18
Shipments abroad -15 -16 -9 -14 -18
Stocks 8 12 7 5 6
Past workforce -1 -9 -10 -11 -11
Expected workforce -2 -3 -1 -2 -5
Cash position -9 -10 -10 -6 -8
Past selling prices 8 -2 -6 -2 6
Expected selling prices 15 3 5 6 8
  • (1) Average since July 1979.
  • Source : INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade

The balances of opinion on the past and expected selling prices have increased again

In July 2024, the balance of opinion on the past selling prices of wholesalers has increased again sharply whereas the one on the expected prices has increased for the third two-month period in a row. Both of them have moved closer to their long-term average.

Expected prices in wholesale trade

Expected prices in wholesale trade
Expected prices
2024-B4 8.0
2024-B3 5.9
2024-B2 4.9
2024-B1 3.0
2023-B6 6.5
2023-B5 10.5
2023-B4 6.1
2023-B3 10.7
2023-B2 29.2
2023-B1 34.0
2022-B6 40.4
2022-B5 41.8
2022-B4 44.8
2022-B3 52.7
2022-B2 49.6
2022-B1 36.0
2021-B6 37.4
2021-B5 32.0
2021-B4 32.2
2021-B3 27.1
2021-B2 19.7
2021-B1 9.3
2020-B6 -6.0
2020-B5 2.8
2020-B4 1.3
2020-B3 -2.8
2020-B2 -0.8
2020-B1 7.4
2019-B6 6.7
2019-B5 3.3
2019-B4 2.8
2019-B3 3.2
2019-B2 3.3
2019-B1 6.8
2018-B6 9.1
2018-B5 13.5
2018-B4 9.1
2018-B3 6.9
2018-B2 11.4
2018-B1 8.4
2017-B6 11.2
2017-B5 4.5
2017-B4 4.8
2017-B3 3.5
2017-B2 4.0
2017-B1 10.7
2016-B6 2.4
2016-B5 -2.8
2016-B4 0.1
2016-B3 -0.9
2016-B2 -3.4
2016-B1 -5.7
2015-B6 -1.4
2015-B5 -8.2
2015-B4 2.9
2015-B3 5.1
2015-B2 -0.5
2015-B1 -6.7
2014-B6 -10.7
2014-B5 -8.7
2014-B4 -4.2
2014-B3 -0.8
2014-B2 2.1
2014-B1 6.0
2013-B6 0.5
2013-B5 0.3
2013-B4 -3.9
2013-B3 -3.2
2013-B2 -2.2
2013-B1 5.1
2012-B6 5.5
2012-B5 11.3
2012-B4 8.9
2012-B3 6.0
2012-B2 11.7
2012-B1 11.0
2011-B6 14.2
2011-B5 6.2
2011-B4 11.9
2011-B3 19.8
2011-B2 24.6
2011-B1 22.9
2010-B6 8.7
2010-B5 11.5
2010-B4 8.6
2010-B3 5.1
2010-B2 0.2
2010-B1 -3.9
2009-B6 -7.2
2009-B5 -6.8
2009-B4 -11.9
2009-B3 -7.5
2009-B2 -12.5
2009-B1 -5.5
2008-B6 0.4
2008-B5 10.3
2008-B4 18.8
2008-B3 15.3
2008-B2 18.6
2008-B1 26.9
2007-B6 23.9
2007-B5 20.9
2007-B4 16.2
2007-B3 14.1
2007-B2 10.1
2007-B1 10.2

Expected prices in wholesale trade

  • Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.

Wholesalers are again a little more pessimistic concerning the expected evolution of their workforce size

The balance of opinion on the expected change in the workforce size has diminished again, continuing a decline virtually uninterrupted since March 2022, while the balance on its recent change is stable. Both of them lie below their average.

The balance of opinion on the level of inventories has increased again slightly

After four two-month periods of decline in a row, the balance of opinion on the level of inventories has increased a little but remains below its average. It has increased in the majority of the sub-sectors of wholesale trade and particularly in the ones of household goods and of information and communication equipment, and has decreased in the sub-sector of food products and beverages, and of “other industrial capital goods”.

Finally, the balance related to the cash position has diminished again but remains above its long-term average.

Balances of opinion by sub-sector in wholesale trade

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Balances of opinion by sub-sector in wholesale trade (Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.)
Ave. (1) Jan. 24 Mar. 24 May 24 July 24
Raw agricultural products and live animals
Sales -13 -32 -19 -12 -12
Export sales -16 -22 -15 -19 -19
Merchandise received from abroad -11 -25 -19 -33 -27
Ordering intentions -13 -19 -9 -5 -10
Current stocks 5 18 14 9 10
Food products and beverages
Sales -15 -22 -15 -18 -24
Export sales -13 -23 -12 -14 -20
Merchandise received from abroad -13 -15 -1 2 -12
Ordering intentions -11 -14 -12 -12 -12
Current stocks 4 4 4 6 1
Household goods
Sales -10 -8 -7 -13 -10
Export sales -11 -12 -2 -13 -11
Merchandise received from abroad -6 -23 -11 -15 -7
Ordering intentions -13 -15 -12 -13 -11
Current stocks 12 19 9 9 14
Information and communication equipment
Sales -8 -22 -20 -6 -17
Export sales -12 -20 -14 -26 -17
Merchandise received from abroad -8 -26 -24 -16 -22
Ordering intentions -10 -15 -1 -4 -4
Current stocks 8 7 13 8 18
Other industrial capital goods
Sales -16 -31 -36 -36 -44
Export sales -21 -17 -21 -30 -34
Merchandise received from abroad -12 -17 -13 -27 -22
Ordering intentions -21 -29 -27 -30 -37
Current stocks 12 20 17 16 12
Other specialised wholesale trade
Sales -17 -44 -44 -40 -44
Export sales -18 -17 -14 -16 -16
Merchandise received from abroad -13 -27 -26 -19 -23
Ordering intentions -18 -29 -26 -24 -29
Current stocks 6 6 -1 -9 -6
  • (1) Average since July 1979.
  • Source : INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade

Revisions

The business climate in wholesale trade in May 2024 has been revised upwards by one point (after rounding). This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from companies and the update of the seasonal coefficients and the parameters of the composite indicators.

Further information

A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.

Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 June and 22 July 2024, most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.

Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 20 September 2024 at 8:45 am.

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