Informations Rapides ·
25 July 2024 · n° 181In July 2024, the business climate has deteriorated in wholesale trade Bimonthly survey of wholesaling - July 2024
According to the business managers surveyed in July 2024, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated. At 92, the composite indicator has lost three points compared to May 2024, and remains for the tenth two-month period in a row below its long-term average (100). This deterioration reflects in particular the decrease of the balances of opinion concerning the general business outlook and the past sales.
The seasonal coefficients as well as the parameters of the composite indicators have been updated in July 2024. That has led to revisions in the set of results previously published from this survey. Those revisions are for the most part quite minor and have no impact on the analysis of the business situation.
- The balance of opinion related to the general business outlook has fallen strongly
- The balances of opinion on the past and expected selling prices have increased again
- Wholesalers are again a little more pessimistic concerning the expected evolution of their workforce size
- The balance of opinion on the level of inventories has increased again slightly
- Revisions
- Further information
According to the business managers surveyed in July 2024, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated. At 92, the composite indicator has lost three points compared to May 2024, and remains for the tenth two-month period in a row below its long-term average (100). This deterioration reflects in particular the decrease of the balances of opinion concerning the general business outlook and the past sales.
tableauComposite indicator
Composite indicator | |
---|---|
2024-B4 | 92.4 |
2024-B3 | 95.3 |
2024-B2 | 95.9 |
2024-B1 | 91.6 |
2023-B6 | 91.9 |
2023-B5 | 93.8 |
2023-B4 | 92.8 |
2023-B3 | 94.8 |
2023-B2 | 98.6 |
2023-B1 | 97.6 |
2022-B6 | 100.4 |
2022-B5 | 96.0 |
2022-B4 | 100.8 |
2022-B3 | 101.7 |
2022-B2 | 105.3 |
2022-B1 | 116.3 |
2021-B6 | 113.3 |
2021-B5 | 108.7 |
2021-B4 | 112.6 |
2021-B3 | 110.3 |
2021-B2 | 99.1 |
2021-B1 | 96.8 |
2020-B6 | 85.7 |
2020-B5 | 89.4 |
2020-B4 | 78.2 |
2020-B3 | 66.5 |
2020-B2 | 96.8 |
2020-B1 | 105.2 |
2019-B6 | 105.9 |
2019-B5 | 106.2 |
2019-B4 | 105.2 |
2019-B3 | 107.4 |
2019-B2 | 105.7 |
2019-B1 | 100.9 |
2018-B6 | 103.5 |
2018-B5 | 103.6 |
2018-B4 | 101.5 |
2018-B3 | 104.8 |
2018-B2 | 109.5 |
2018-B1 | 108.7 |
2017-B6 | 110.7 |
2017-B5 | 108.5 |
2017-B4 | 108.8 |
2017-B3 | 104.5 |
2017-B2 | 102.8 |
2017-B1 | 105.0 |
2016-B6 | 98.1 |
2016-B5 | 97.4 |
2016-B4 | 103.1 |
2016-B3 | 101.8 |
2016-B2 | 99.6 |
2016-B1 | 102.5 |
2015-B6 | 101.7 |
2015-B5 | 99.4 |
2015-B4 | 102.0 |
2015-B3 | 101.0 |
2015-B2 | 96.3 |
2015-B1 | 95.7 |
2014-B6 | 95.3 |
2014-B5 | 90.8 |
2014-B4 | 96.1 |
2014-B3 | 97.8 |
2014-B2 | 98.0 |
2014-B1 | 97.1 |
2013-B6 | 97.8 |
2013-B5 | 97.0 |
2013-B4 | 87.5 |
2013-B3 | 87.7 |
2013-B2 | 88.3 |
2013-B1 | 88.9 |
2012-B6 | 89.0 |
2012-B5 | 90.9 |
2012-B4 | 94.8 |
2012-B3 | 92.8 |
2012-B2 | 99.4 |
2012-B1 | 95.4 |
2011-B6 | 96.0 |
2011-B5 | 100.2 |
2011-B4 | 106.0 |
2011-B3 | 107.4 |
2011-B2 | 108.3 |
2011-B1 | 106.2 |
2010-B6 | 104.6 |
2010-B5 | 105.2 |
2010-B4 | 100.5 |
2010-B3 | 94.6 |
2010-B2 | 85.1 |
2010-B1 | 85.1 |
2009-B6 | 77.9 |
2009-B5 | 76.4 |
2009-B4 | 70.8 |
2009-B3 | 68.6 |
2009-B2 | 67.2 |
2009-B1 | 79.1 |
2008-B6 | 84.0 |
2008-B5 | 94.3 |
2008-B4 | 96.7 |
2008-B3 | 101.6 |
2008-B2 | 106.8 |
2008-B1 | 107.5 |
2007-B6 | 109.0 |
2007-B5 | 111.7 |
2007-B4 | 107.7 |
2007-B3 | 110.6 |
2007-B2 | 111.8 |
2007-B1 | 108.2 |
2006-B6 | 110.2 |
2006-B5 | 107.0 |
2006-B4 | 107.5 |
2006-B3 | 102.0 |
2006-B2 | 99.3 |
2006-B1 | 103.8 |
2005-B6 | 99.5 |
2005-B5 | 94.8 |
2005-B4 | 96.1 |
2005-B3 | 92.4 |
2005-B2 | 97.5 |
2005-B1 | 100.8 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
The balance of opinion related to the general business outlook has fallen strongly
In July 2024, the balance of opinion of wholesalers regarding the general business outlook has fallen strongly and has reached its lowest level since November 2020. The one on the past sales has diminished again sharply and has moved away from its average. This decline can be clearly seen in the sub-sectors of the wholesale trade of food products and beverages, of information and communication equipment, of “other industrial capital goods” and in “other specialised wholesale trade”.
The balance on the received merchandise, whatever their origin, is almost stable, well below its long-term average.
Finally, the balance on the ordering intentions has diminished, as well as the one specific to the orderings from abroad; both balances have moved away from their long-term average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the wholesale trade sector
Ave. (1) | Jan. 24 | Mar. 24 | May 24 | July 24 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business climate | 100 | 92 | 96 | 95 | 92 |
General business outlook | -23 | -30 | -27 | -24 | -41 |
Sales | -14 | -27 | -25 | -24 | -28 |
export sales | -15 | -18 | -12 | -18 | -19 |
Received merchandise | -10 | -21 | -21 | -22 | -22 |
received from abroad | -11 | -22 | -15 | -16 | -17 |
Ordering intentions | -15 | -21 | -17 | -17 | -19 |
ordering from abroad | -15 | -19 | -14 | -16 | -18 |
Shipments abroad | -15 | -16 | -9 | -14 | -18 |
Stocks | 8 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
Past workforce | -1 | -9 | -10 | -11 | -11 |
Expected workforce | -2 | -3 | -1 | -2 | -5 |
Cash position | -9 | -10 | -10 | -6 | -8 |
Past selling prices | 8 | -2 | -6 | -2 | 6 |
Expected selling prices | 15 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source : INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
The balances of opinion on the past and expected selling prices have increased again
In July 2024, the balance of opinion on the past selling prices of wholesalers has increased again sharply whereas the one on the expected prices has increased for the third two-month period in a row. Both of them have moved closer to their long-term average.
tableauExpected prices in wholesale trade
Expected prices | |
---|---|
2024-B4 | 8.0 |
2024-B3 | 5.9 |
2024-B2 | 4.9 |
2024-B1 | 3.0 |
2023-B6 | 6.5 |
2023-B5 | 10.5 |
2023-B4 | 6.1 |
2023-B3 | 10.7 |
2023-B2 | 29.2 |
2023-B1 | 34.0 |
2022-B6 | 40.4 |
2022-B5 | 41.8 |
2022-B4 | 44.8 |
2022-B3 | 52.7 |
2022-B2 | 49.6 |
2022-B1 | 36.0 |
2021-B6 | 37.4 |
2021-B5 | 32.0 |
2021-B4 | 32.2 |
2021-B3 | 27.1 |
2021-B2 | 19.7 |
2021-B1 | 9.3 |
2020-B6 | -6.0 |
2020-B5 | 2.8 |
2020-B4 | 1.3 |
2020-B3 | -2.8 |
2020-B2 | -0.8 |
2020-B1 | 7.4 |
2019-B6 | 6.7 |
2019-B5 | 3.3 |
2019-B4 | 2.8 |
2019-B3 | 3.2 |
2019-B2 | 3.3 |
2019-B1 | 6.8 |
2018-B6 | 9.1 |
2018-B5 | 13.5 |
2018-B4 | 9.1 |
2018-B3 | 6.9 |
2018-B2 | 11.4 |
2018-B1 | 8.4 |
2017-B6 | 11.2 |
2017-B5 | 4.5 |
2017-B4 | 4.8 |
2017-B3 | 3.5 |
2017-B2 | 4.0 |
2017-B1 | 10.7 |
2016-B6 | 2.4 |
2016-B5 | -2.8 |
2016-B4 | 0.1 |
2016-B3 | -0.9 |
2016-B2 | -3.4 |
2016-B1 | -5.7 |
2015-B6 | -1.4 |
2015-B5 | -8.2 |
2015-B4 | 2.9 |
2015-B3 | 5.1 |
2015-B2 | -0.5 |
2015-B1 | -6.7 |
2014-B6 | -10.7 |
2014-B5 | -8.7 |
2014-B4 | -4.2 |
2014-B3 | -0.8 |
2014-B2 | 2.1 |
2014-B1 | 6.0 |
2013-B6 | 0.5 |
2013-B5 | 0.3 |
2013-B4 | -3.9 |
2013-B3 | -3.2 |
2013-B2 | -2.2 |
2013-B1 | 5.1 |
2012-B6 | 5.5 |
2012-B5 | 11.3 |
2012-B4 | 8.9 |
2012-B3 | 6.0 |
2012-B2 | 11.7 |
2012-B1 | 11.0 |
2011-B6 | 14.2 |
2011-B5 | 6.2 |
2011-B4 | 11.9 |
2011-B3 | 19.8 |
2011-B2 | 24.6 |
2011-B1 | 22.9 |
2010-B6 | 8.7 |
2010-B5 | 11.5 |
2010-B4 | 8.6 |
2010-B3 | 5.1 |
2010-B2 | 0.2 |
2010-B1 | -3.9 |
2009-B6 | -7.2 |
2009-B5 | -6.8 |
2009-B4 | -11.9 |
2009-B3 | -7.5 |
2009-B2 | -12.5 |
2009-B1 | -5.5 |
2008-B6 | 0.4 |
2008-B5 | 10.3 |
2008-B4 | 18.8 |
2008-B3 | 15.3 |
2008-B2 | 18.6 |
2008-B1 | 26.9 |
2007-B6 | 23.9 |
2007-B5 | 20.9 |
2007-B4 | 16.2 |
2007-B3 | 14.1 |
2007-B2 | 10.1 |
2007-B1 | 10.2 |
graphiqueExpected prices in wholesale trade
Wholesalers are again a little more pessimistic concerning the expected evolution of their workforce size
The balance of opinion on the expected change in the workforce size has diminished again, continuing a decline virtually uninterrupted since March 2022, while the balance on its recent change is stable. Both of them lie below their average.
The balance of opinion on the level of inventories has increased again slightly
After four two-month periods of decline in a row, the balance of opinion on the level of inventories has increased a little but remains below its average. It has increased in the majority of the sub-sectors of wholesale trade and particularly in the ones of household goods and of information and communication equipment, and has decreased in the sub-sector of food products and beverages, and of “other industrial capital goods”.
Finally, the balance related to the cash position has diminished again but remains above its long-term average.
tableauBalances of opinion by sub-sector in wholesale trade
Ave. (1) | Jan. 24 | Mar. 24 | May 24 | July 24 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
Sales | -13 | -32 | -19 | -12 | -12 |
Export sales | -16 | -22 | -15 | -19 | -19 |
Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -25 | -19 | -33 | -27 |
Ordering intentions | -13 | -19 | -9 | -5 | -10 |
Current stocks | 5 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 10 |
Food products and beverages | |||||
Sales | -15 | -22 | -15 | -18 | -24 |
Export sales | -13 | -23 | -12 | -14 | -20 |
Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -15 | -1 | 2 | -12 |
Ordering intentions | -11 | -14 | -12 | -12 | -12 |
Current stocks | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
Household goods | |||||
Sales | -10 | -8 | -7 | -13 | -10 |
Export sales | -11 | -12 | -2 | -13 | -11 |
Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | -23 | -11 | -15 | -7 |
Ordering intentions | -13 | -15 | -12 | -13 | -11 |
Current stocks | 12 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 14 |
Information and communication equipment | |||||
Sales | -8 | -22 | -20 | -6 | -17 |
Export sales | -12 | -20 | -14 | -26 | -17 |
Merchandise received from abroad | -8 | -26 | -24 | -16 | -22 |
Ordering intentions | -10 | -15 | -1 | -4 | -4 |
Current stocks | 8 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 18 |
Other industrial capital goods | |||||
Sales | -16 | -31 | -36 | -36 | -44 |
Export sales | -21 | -17 | -21 | -30 | -34 |
Merchandise received from abroad | -12 | -17 | -13 | -27 | -22 |
Ordering intentions | -21 | -29 | -27 | -30 | -37 |
Current stocks | 12 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 12 |
Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
Sales | -17 | -44 | -44 | -40 | -44 |
Export sales | -18 | -17 | -14 | -16 | -16 |
Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -27 | -26 | -19 | -23 |
Ordering intentions | -18 | -29 | -26 | -24 | -29 |
Current stocks | 6 | 6 | -1 | -9 | -6 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source : INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Revisions
The business climate in wholesale trade in May 2024 has been revised upwards by one point (after rounding). This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from companies and the update of the seasonal coefficients and the parameters of the composite indicators.
Further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.
Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 June and 22 July 2024, most companies answer during the first two weeks of collection.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 20 September 2024 at 8:45 am.
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade