Insee
Informations Rapides · 22 February 2024 · n° 42
Informations rapidesIn February 2024, the business climate has sharply retreated in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles Monthly survey of retailing - February 2024

In February 2024, the business climate has sharply retreated in retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles as a whole, following two months of significant rise. At 99, the indicator that synthesizes it has lost five points and has moved just below its long-term average (100). This decrease is mainly the result of the decline of the balances of opinion related to the general business outlook, the past sales and the ordering intentions.

Informations rapides
No 42
Paru le :Paru le22/02/2024
Prochaine parution le : 25/04/2024 at 08:45 - April 2024

In February 2024, the business climate has sharply retreated in retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles as a whole, following two months of significant rise. At 99, the indicator that synthesizes it has lost five points and has moved just below its long-term average (100). This decrease is mainly the result of the decline of the balances of opinion related to the general business outlook, the past sales and the ordering intentions.

Composite indicator

Composite indicator
Business climate synthetic indicator
2024-02 99.1
2024-01 103.8
2023-12 99.6
2023-11 96.5
2023-10 98.0
2023-09 102.7
2023-08 105.0
2023-07 105.7
2023-06 101.7
2023-05 96.7
2023-04 100.0
2023-03 97.5
2023-02 100.1
2023-01 99.4
2022-12 98.7
2022-11 96.1
2022-10 97.5
2022-09 96.8
2022-08 99.1
2022-07 95.4
2022-06 94.5
2022-05 94.1
2022-04 91.1
2022-03 98.7
2022-02 105.7
2022-01 104.0
2021-12 106.8
2021-11 107.8
2021-10 106.6
2021-09 108.0
2021-08 110.1
2021-07 114.2
2021-06 116.4
2021-05 107.8
2021-04 91.7
2021-03 96.4
2021-02 89.2
2021-01 93.6
2020-12 93.5
2020-11 70.8
2020-10 98.0
2020-09 98.1
2020-08 96.8
2020-07 90.4
2020-06 86.6
2020-05 61.6
2020-04 58.1
2020-03 93.6
2020-02 107.3
2020-01 106.8
2019-12 108.7
2019-11 106.7
2019-10 106.6
2019-09 107.1
2019-08 103.4
2019-07 106.1
2019-06 104.8
2019-05 104.9
2019-04 107.8
2019-03 105.1
2019-02 103.5
2019-01 102.1
2018-12 100.2
2018-11 107.5
2018-10 107.6
2018-09 110.1
2018-08 116.1
2018-07 113.9
2018-06 113.7
2018-05 113.1
2018-04 113.6
2018-03 114.5
2018-02 117.0
2018-01 117.3
2017-12 116.7
2017-11 116.2
2017-10 116.7
2017-09 113.4
2017-08 111.2
2017-07 112.0
2017-06 111.2
2017-05 107.1
2017-04 105.7
2017-03 107.9
2017-02 107.6
2017-01 108.9
2016-12 108.2
2016-11 103.2
2016-10 102.0
2016-09 102.9
2016-08 104.6
2016-07 104.6
2016-06 104.0
2016-05 106.2
2016-04 103.0
2016-03 103.9
2016-02 102.6
2016-01 104.3
2015-12 101.6
2015-11 105.2
2015-10 108.3
2015-09 106.0
2015-08 106.6
2015-07 103.2
2015-06 104.3
2015-05 103.1
2015-04 103.1
2015-03 102.2
2015-02 102.0
2015-01 98.8
2014-12 94.4
2014-11 92.8
2014-10 89.3
2014-09 88.5
2014-08 90.6
2014-07 96.7
2014-06 94.6
2014-05 96.4
2014-04 96.5
2014-03 95.4
2014-02 94.7
2014-01 95.2
2013-12 94.0
2013-11 91.9
2013-10 95.4
2013-09 97.7
2013-08 93.4
2013-07 85.4
2013-06 85.0
2013-05 83.5
2013-04 84.5
2013-03 86.4
2013-02 89.6
2013-01 85.0
2012-12 87.9
2012-11 88.2
2012-10 87.4
2012-09 85.8
2012-08 90.9
2012-07 89.3
2012-06 93.0
2012-05 90.9
2012-04 96.0
2012-03 93.3
2012-02 90.6
2012-01 88.2
2011-12 92.9
2011-11 93.8
2011-10 94.6
2011-09 93.9
2011-08 98.2
2011-07 101.4
2011-06 102.1
2011-05 103.9
2011-04 103.1
2011-03 103.8
2011-02 106.5
2011-01 106.6
2010-12 107.8
2010-11 104.3
2010-10 107.5
2010-09 105.9
2010-08 106.2
2010-07 101.0
2010-06 101.0
2010-05 101.7
2010-04 103.1
2010-03 97.9
2010-02 98.7
2010-01 98.3
2009-12 96.6
2009-11 98.2
2009-10 92.7
2009-09 90.4
2009-08 87.4
2009-07 86.0
2009-06 79.7
2009-05 80.5
2009-04 75.7
2009-03 82.4
2009-02 78.6
2009-01 77.6
2008-12 76.4
2008-11 84.0
2008-10 80.6
2008-09 96.2
2008-08 93.0
2008-07 95.4
2008-06 99.4
2008-05 103.0
2008-04 103.4
2008-03 109.4
2008-02 108.6
2008-01 110.0
2007-12 114.4
2007-11 112.6
2007-10 111.4
2007-09 111.8
2007-08 115.1
2007-07 117.1
2007-06 120.5
2007-05 114.5
2007-04 113.2
2007-03 110.9
2007-02 112.2
2007-01 107.6
2006-12 108.3
2006-11 110.7
2006-10 111.6
2006-09 110.2
2006-08 109.6
2006-07 108.0
2006-06 107.5
2006-05 105.2
2006-04 103.5
2006-03 102.1
2006-02 102.5
2006-01 103.0
2005-12 103.9
2005-11 99.5
2005-10 101.5
2005-09 98.9
2005-08 97.6
2005-07 95.8
2005-06 97.8
2005-05 101.2
2005-04 103.5
2005-03 104.1
2005-02 103.6
2005-01 105.9

Composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

The balances of opinion related to the activity have sharply diminished

In February 2024, the balances of opinion on the general business outlook and the past sales have retreated sharply. The former has moved closer to its long-term average while the latter has moved back below its own. The balance on the ordering intentions has retreated for its part more modestly and has moved just below its average.

Furthermore, the balance of opinion associated with the past change in the workforce size has retreated sharply, while the one related to its expected change has increased slightly. Both of them remain below their long-term average.

The balance of opinion associated with the current level of stocks has diminished but remains above its long-term average. Finally, the business managers are as numerous as in the previous month to consider that the evolution of their business situation is difficult to forecast.

Tendency in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Tendency in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles (Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.)
Ave. (1) Nov. 23 Dec. 23 Jan. 24 Feb. 24
Business climate 100 96 100 104 99
General business outlook -27 -20 -18 -17 -23
Recent sales -7 -14 -13 -1 -15
Expected sales -4 -12 -11 -11 -11
Ordering intentions -8 -15 -13 -6 -9
Stocks 10 23 19 19 15
Past selling prices (2) -3 13 - 4 -
Expected selling prices 0 8 9 3 5
Cash position (2) -15 -26 - -21 -
Past workforce size -1 -13 -9 -6 -13
Expected workforce size -4 -13 -7 -8 -7
Economic uncertainty felt (3) 38 40 41 38 38
  • (1) Average since 1991 (except 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions, and April 2021 for uncertainty felt).
  • (2) Bimonthly question (odd-numbered months).
  • (3) Non-seasonally adjusted balance.
  • Source: INSEE - monthly survey in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

Recent sales and ordering intentions

Recent sales and ordering intentions
Ordering intentions Recent sales
2024-02 -9.2 -14.7
2024-01 -6.3 -0.6
2023-12 -13.5 -12.6
2023-11 -15.2 -14.2
2023-10 -11.6 -5.2
2023-09 -7.8 1.7
2023-08 -8.0 6.2
2023-07 -8.5 -1.9
2023-06 -8.8 -9.1
2023-05 -16.0 -5.8
2023-04 -11.3 -1.6
2023-03 -14.9 -5.7
2023-02 -10.4 -1.2
2023-01 -11.8 6.0
2022-12 -10.4 -1.4
2022-11 -15.4 2.1
2022-10 -8.7 -2.8
2022-09 -13.9 -4.9
2022-08 -7.4 -12.3
2022-07 -10.7 -20.4
2022-06 -12.6 -16.1
2022-05 -14.4 -12.9
2022-04 -18.7 -18.6
2022-03 -5.0 -12.4
2022-02 -3.1 -7.0
2022-01 -3.3 -4.7
2021-12 -1.6 -6.2
2021-11 -0.5 -11.0
2021-10 -3.8 -17.6
2021-09 -2.0 -11.2
2021-08 3.9 11.0
2021-07 2.6 0.3
2021-06 1.0 -2.0
2021-05 -7.2 -10.9
2021-04 -16.0 -7.4
2021-03 -8.5 -16.4
2021-02 -15.5 -14.1
2021-01 -13.4 -5.4
2020-12 -11.4 -21.8
2020-11 -37.0 7.4
2020-10 0.4 -2.1
2020-09 -6.3 6.2
2020-08 -3.9 -9.9
2020-07 -9.6 -42.0
2020-06 -13.8 -48.2
2020-05 -47.3 -56.4
2020-04 -56.4 -4.3
2020-03 -12.5 -4.4
2020-02 -0.6 1.6
2020-01 -2.8 11.1
2019-12 1.3 -1.5
2019-11 -1.0 -5.8
2019-10 -2.5 -6.3
2019-09 -3.7 0.5
2019-08 -7.8 -5.0
2019-07 -5.0 -3.7
2019-06 -7.6 -9.0
2019-05 -6.3 -10.9
2019-04 0.3 -12.9
2019-03 -2.4 -17.9
2019-02 -6.2 -10.0
2019-01 -6.4 -9.1
2018-12 -5.6 -9.1
2018-11 -0.6 -6.8
2018-10 -2.2 -8.1
2018-09 0.6 2.0
2018-08 13.4 0.3
2018-07 3.7 -2.1
2018-06 5.2 -8.7
2018-05 2.6 -6.9
2018-04 2.1 -9.7
2018-03 2.3 -8.2
2018-02 4.2 5.1
2018-01 6.3 1.9
2017-12 5.9 1.5
2017-11 7.7 -5.1
2017-10 9.3 -0.4
2017-09 2.3 -1.6
2017-08 -0.8 -1.0
2017-07 -1.4 5.5
2017-06 -1.0 -5.9
2017-05 -3.2 -5.5
2017-04 -3.5 -11.9
2017-03 0.2 -1.8
2017-02 -0.4 4.2
2017-01 1.5 1.0
2016-12 -0.1 -1.2
2016-11 -9.2 -6.3
2016-10 -8.2 -10.7
2016-09 -6.1 -10.5
2016-08 -3.9 -4.1
2016-07 -5.1 -5.1
2016-06 -3.7 -4.0
2016-05 -3.8 4.8
2016-04 -8.7 1.5
2016-03 -3.5 -5.2
2016-02 -6.8 -9.2
2016-01 -6.1 -4.9
2015-12 -5.2 -15.3
2015-11 -3.5 3.0
2015-10 0.3 4.4
2015-09 -2.6 1.6
2015-08 -1.5 8.0
2015-07 -6.3 -0.6
2015-06 -1.3 -8.3
2015-05 -3.0 -4.4
2015-04 -2.2 -2.6
2015-03 -3.3 -5.4
2015-02 -1.9 -4.3
2015-01 -4.9 -8.6
2014-12 -12.7 -10.2
2014-11 -13.6 -14.7
2014-10 -16.8 -23.7
2014-09 -18.4 -30.6
2014-08 -17.3 -19.8
2014-07 -10.3 -5.9
2014-06 -13.8 -11.9
2014-05 -11.3 -14.8
2014-04 -9.6 -21.3
2014-03 -11.1 -16.9
2014-02 -13.3 -13.1
2014-01 -12.7 -10.7
2013-12 -15.2 -10.6
2013-11 -13.5 -12.9
2013-10 -13.4 -11.5
2013-09 -7.5 -12.8
2013-08 -13.4 -18.3
2013-07 -23.1 -26.0
2013-06 -19.4 -24.4
2013-05 -21.7 -29.8
2013-04 -19.6 -31.8
2013-03 -17.1 -25.9
2013-02 -14.0 -27.2
2013-01 -25.5 -17.3
2012-12 -17.7 -21.2
2012-11 -18.5 -16.4
2012-10 -19.3 -23.0
2012-09 -21.7 -23.8
2012-08 -15.1 -8.3
2012-07 -15.4 -19.5
2012-06 -12.9 -18.3
2012-05 -16.8 -14.8
2012-04 -13.7 -8.1
2012-03 -16.0 -12.3
2012-02 -15.4 -15.4
2012-01 -19.9 -20.3
2011-12 -13.9 -17.5
2011-11 -12.6 -13.0
2011-10 -13.5 -15.7
2011-09 -13.1 -17.4
2011-08 -11.3 -6.5
2011-07 -11.6 -9.4
2011-06 -11.4 0.1
2011-05 -7.9 3.6
2011-04 -7.2 1.7
2011-03 -5.8 -6.4
2011-02 -2.4 1.6
2011-01 -1.8 4.3
2010-12 -1.3 4.1
2010-11 -4.9 -8.0
2010-10 1.3 -3.9
2010-09 -2.3 -1.8
2010-08 -1.6 4.0
2010-07 -7.9 -5.3
2010-06 -4.7 -1.0
2010-05 -7.0 2.1
2010-04 -4.5 -2.7
2010-03 -10.0 -20.1
2010-02 -9.9 -13.0
2010-01 -13.4 -4.7

Recent sales and ordering intentions

  • Source: INSEE

The balance of opinion on the expected prices has rebounded slightly

In February 2024, the balance of opinion on the expected prices has rebounded slightly and remains a little above its long-term average.

Expected prices in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

Expected prices in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles
Expected prices
2024-02 5.0
2024-01 3.2
2023-12 9.1
2023-11 8.0
2023-10 13.6
2023-09 14.4
2023-08 13.9
2023-07 14.4
2023-06 18.8
2023-05 26.8
2023-04 37.0
2023-03 46.7
2023-02 45.3
2023-01 41.2
2022-12 37.3
2022-11 38.2
2022-10 44.5
2022-09 40.9
2022-08 42.2
2022-07 40.3
2022-06 41.0
2022-05 41.3
2022-04 36.1
2022-03 37.5
2022-02 35.8
2022-01 26.1
2021-12 24.9
2021-11 26.2
2021-10 23.5
2021-09 15.1
2021-08 14.4
2021-07 13.4
2021-06 10.1
2021-05 3.7
2021-04 0.5
2021-03 1.7
2021-02 -0.2
2021-01 0.3
2020-12 -3.9
2020-11 -4.0
2020-10 2.9
2020-09 1.0
2020-08 -0.1
2020-07 -2.7
2020-06 -3.6
2020-05 -8.2
2020-04 -8.1
2020-03 -1.5
2020-02 2.1
2020-01 -0.2
2019-12 3.0
2019-11 1.5
2019-10 3.9
2019-09 1.8
2019-08 -1.0
2019-07 -1.2
2019-06 -3.3
2019-05 -0.5
2019-04 2.3
2019-03 0.9
2019-02 0.3
2019-01 -2.9
2018-12 4.1
2018-11 -1.3
2018-10 -0.6
2018-09 0.3
2018-08 -1.6
2018-07 0.7
2018-06 -3.3
2018-05 -2.0
2018-04 -3.0
2018-03 -3.4
2018-02 0.9
2018-01 -3.5
2017-12 -1.6
2017-11 1.4
2017-10 3.6
2017-09 -2.0
2017-08 -0.4
2017-07 -2.5
2017-06 -2.1
2017-05 -7.4
2017-04 -4.2
2017-03 -1.1
2017-02 -4.1
2017-01 0.2
2016-12 -0.7
2016-11 -1.2
2016-10 -7.3
2016-09 -6.5
2016-08 -4.2
2016-07 -4.5
2016-06 -7.6
2016-05 -4.7
2016-04 -6.4
2016-03 -5.1
2016-02 -6.6
2016-01 -8.3
2015-12 -7.5
2015-11 -2.8
2015-10 -3.0
2015-09 -7.2
2015-08 -7.8
2015-07 -5.6
2015-06 -3.1
2015-05 -7.4
2015-04 -5.3
2015-03 -9.3
2015-02 -10.0
2015-01 -11.7
2014-12 -11.4
2014-11 -11.8
2014-10 -13.8
2014-09 -14.0
2014-08 -12.2
2014-07 -9.7
2014-06 -13.9
2014-05 -14.2
2014-04 -16.4
2014-03 -12.7
2014-02 -10.3
2014-01 -2.4
2013-12 -1.0
2013-11 -3.6
2013-10 -2.9
2013-09 -0.5
2013-08 -3.5
2013-07 -1.6
2013-06 -6.9
2013-05 -0.7
2013-04 -13.8
2013-03 -1.6
2013-02 -8.2
2013-01 -6.3
2012-12 -1.6
2012-11 -5.0
2012-10 -4.8
2012-09 -0.9
2012-08 -3.6
2012-07 -1.8
2012-06 -2.0
2012-05 -1.6
2012-04 -1.2
2012-03 3.7
2012-02 3.7
2012-01 5.1
2011-12 7.1
2011-11 4.8
2011-10 3.3
2011-09 3.3
2011-08 5.2
2011-07 4.8
2011-06 5.2
2011-05 9.7
2011-04 9.0
2011-03 7.6
2011-02 5.8
2011-01 2.5
2010-12 -1.4
2010-11 -0.2
2010-10 0.8
2010-09 -1.7
2010-08 -5.0
2010-07 -3.6
2010-06 -0.8
2010-05 -3.4
2010-04 -4.2
2010-03 -4.3
2010-02 -5.0
2010-01 -5.7
2009-12 -5.7
2009-11 -9.3
2009-10 -8.0
2009-09 -4.9
2009-08 -11.4
2009-07 -5.7
2009-06 -16.4
2009-05 -17.4
2009-04 -18.3
2009-03 -30.6
2009-02 -17.4
2009-01 -17.8
2008-12 -20.4
2008-11 -26.8
2008-10 -6.3
2008-09 -15.4
2008-08 4.6
2008-07 6.0
2008-06 3.8
2008-05 1.9
2008-04 1.5
2008-03 8.1
2008-02 1.5
2008-01 5.4
2007-12 3.1
2007-11 14.5
2007-10 0.0
2007-09 7.8
2007-08 0.7
2007-07 -6.0
2007-06 -5.0
2007-05 -1.7
2007-04 -8.9
2007-03 -5.8
2007-02 -1.7
2007-01 -6.2

Expected prices in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

  • Source: INSEE

The general business outlook has deteriorated both in retail trade (excluding motor vehicles) and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

The balances associated with the past sales and the ordering intentions have retreated sharply in February 2024 in retail trade (excluding motor vehicles) and lie respectively below and at the level of their average. The balance on the general economic outlook has retreated sharply while remaining above its average. In trade and repair of motor vehicles, the balance related to the past sales has rebounded and has moved closer to its average but those related to the general outlook and to the expected sales have deteriorated sharply and lie below their average.

The balance on the expected selling prices has rebounded in retail trade (excluding motor vehicles) and has moved away from its long-term average, mainly because of food products. Conversely, in trade and repair of motor vehicles, it has diminished and has moved away from its own.

Finally, the balance on the expected change in the workforce size has retreated sharply in retail trade (excluding motor vehicles) and has moved away from its long-term average. Conversely, in trade and repair of motor vehicles, it has increased again and has moved away from its own.

Balances of opinion by sub-sector in retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles

Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.
Balances of opinion by sub-sector in retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles (Balances of opinion, in %, S.A.)
Ave. (1) Nov. 23 Dec. 23 Jan. 24 Feb. 24
Retail trade
General business outlook -28 -20 -16 -14 -21
Recent sales -7 -22 -13 7 -16
Expected sales -2 -13 -9 -9 -5
Ordering intentions -7 -18 -13 -2 -7
Stocks 10 25 20 20 14
Past selling prices (2) -5 17 - 4 -
Expected selling prices -2 13 11 3 8
Cash position (2) -14 -26 - -21 -
Past workforce size 0 -15 -12 -7 -18
Expected workforce size -4 -15 -9 -9 -10
Economic uncertainty felt (3) 36 39 39 37 33
Trade and repair of motor vehicles
General business outlook -25 -19 -22 -24 -31
Recent sales -8 3 -12 -19 -11
Expected sales -7 -8 -15 -15 -24
Ordering intentions -9 -10 -14 -15 -13
Stocks 12 19 16 15 18
Past selling prices (2) 5 3 - 4 -
Expected selling prices 7 -3 4 4 -1
Cash position (2) -21 -25 - -21 -
Past workforce size -7 -8 -3 -2 2
Expected workforce size -5 -8 0 -6 2
Economic uncertainty felt (3) 43 43 44 42 48
  • (1) Average since 1991 for retail trade and 2003 for trade and repair of motor vehicles (except 2004 for recent and expected sales and ordering intentions, and April 2021 for uncertainty felt).
  • (2) Bimonthly question (odd-numbered months).
  • (3) Non-seasonally adjusted balance.
  • Source: INSEE - monthly survey in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles

Revisions

The business climate for January 2024 in retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles is unchanged (after rounding).

For more information

The whole sector “retail trade and trade and repair of motor vehicles” is composed for 70% of retail trade and for 30% of trade and repair of motor vehicles.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is the difference between weighted percentage of “increase” or “above normal” answers and weighted percentage of “decrease” or “below normal” answers.

This survey is part of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, partly funded by the European Commission.

Company responses were collected between 29 January and 19 February 2024.

Next issue: 21 March 2024 at 8:45 am.

Pour en savoir plus

: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
: