Insee
Informations Rapides · 30 January 2024 · n° 23
Informations rapidesGDP remained stable in Q4 2023. On average in 2023, it increased by 0.9% Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - fourth quarter 2023

In Q4 2023, gross domestic product (GDP) was stable in volume terms* (0.0% after 0.0% in the previous quarter).

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed negatively to GDP growth this quarter (‑0.1 points after +0.4 points in Q3 2023), due to the decrease of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, ‑0.7% after +0.2%) and of household consumption (‑0.1% after +0.5%).

Conversely, foreign trade recovered in Q4 2023 and contributed positively to GDP growth (+1.2 points after ‑0.1 points). Imports fell sharply (‑3.1% after ‑0.4%), while exports remained virtually unchanged (‑0.1% after ‑0.6%).

Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was negative again this quarter (‑1.1 points after ‑0.3 points in Q3 2023).

On average in 2023, GDP increased by 0.9% (after +2.5% in 2022 and +6.4% in 2021). This annual growth was mostly the result of a sharp rise in the second quarter of 2023, while activity remained stable over the rest of the year. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, the growth overhang for 2024 stood at +0.1%.

Informations rapides
No 23
Paru le :Paru le30/01/2024
Prochaine parution le : 30/04/2024 at 07:30 - first quarter 2024

In Q4 2023, gross domestic product (GDP) was stable in volume terms* (0.0% after 0.0% in the previous quarter).

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed negatively to GDP growth this quarter (‑0.1 points after +0.4 points in Q3 2023), due to the decrease of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, ‑0.7% after +0.2%) and of household consumption (‑0.1% after +0.5%).

Conversely, foreign trade recovered in Q4 2023 and contributed positively to GDP growth (+1.2 points after ‑0.1 points). Imports fell sharply (‑3.1% after ‑0.4%), while exports remained virtually unchanged (‑0.1% after ‑0.6%).

Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was negative again this quarter (‑1.1 points after ‑0.3 points in Q3 2023).

On average in 2023, GDP increased by 0.9% (after +2.5% in 2022 and +6.4% in 2021). This annual growth was mostly the result of a sharp rise in the second quarter of 2023, while activity remained stable over the rest of the year. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, the growth overhang for 2024 stood at +0.1%.

* Volumes are measured at previous year's prices, chain-linked and adjusted for seasonal variations and working day effects (SA-WDA).

GDP - SA-WDA

GDP - SA-WDA
PIB
2023-Q4 593430
2023-Q3 593541
2023-Q2 593716
2023-Q1 589832
2022-Q4 589557
2022-Q3 589847
2022-Q2 586553
2022-Q1 584381
2021-Q4 585106
2021-Q3 581962
2021-Q2 565102
2021-Q1 560239
2020-Q4 559961
2020-Q3 563613
2020-Q2 479520
2020-Q1 552143
2019-Q4 583011
2019-Q3 585477
2019-Q2 584868
2019-Q1 581151
2018-Q4 577139
2018-Q3 574029
2018-Q2 571310
2018-Q1 568769
2017-Q4 568824
2017-Q3 565468
2017-Q2 560438
2017-Q1 555589
2016-Q4 552109
2016-Q3 548804
2016-Q2 546655
2016-Q1 548731
2015-Q4 545331
2015-Q3 544253
2015-Q2 543116
2015-Q1 542234
2014-Q4 539354
2014-Q3 539858
2014-Q2 536819
2014-Q1 536322
2013-Q4 536583
2013-Q3 532693
2013-Q2 533206
2013-Q1 529338
2012-Q4 529233
2012-Q3 529952
2012-Q2 528689
2012-Q1 529190
2011-Q4 529450
2011-Q3 528136
2011-Q2 525827
2011-Q1 525979
2010-Q4 520430
2010-Q3 517268
2010-Q2 514117
2010-Q1 511560
2009-Q4 510183
2009-Q3 505876
2009-Q2 505470
2009-Q1 505375
2008-Q4 514212
2008-Q3 522091
2008-Q2 522749
2008-Q1 525884
2007-Q4 523299
2007-Q3 522188
2007-Q2 519978
2007-Q1 516465
2006-Q4 512461
2006-Q3 509336
2006-Q2 508479
2006-Q1 503245
2005-Q4 499526
2005-Q3 496360
2005-Q2 493075
2005-Q1 491962

GDP - SA-WDA

  • Source: INSEE

GDP and its main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2022 2023
GDP 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.9
Imports -3.1 2.4 -0.4 -3.1 8.8 -0.3
Household consumption expenditure 0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.1 2.1 0.7
General government’s consumption expenditure -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 2.6 0.5
GFCF -0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.7 2.3 1.2
Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises -0.6 1.1 0.3 -0.6 3.8 2.8
Households -2.0 -1.4 -1.1 -1.4 -1.3 -5.0
General government 1.6 0.9 1.6 0.4 1.5 4.7
Exports -1.8 2.7 -0.6 -0.1 7.4 1.5
Contributions:
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.0 0.2 0.4 -0.1 2.4 0.8
Inventory changes -0.5 0.5 -0.3 -1.1 0.7 -0.5
Net foreign trade 0.6 0.0 -0.1 1.2 -0.6 0.6
  • This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
  • Source: INSEE

Total production was stable in Q4 2023 (0.0% after +0.1%)

Total production (goods and services) was sluggish in the fourth quarter of 2023 (0.0% after +0.1% in the previous quarter).

Manufacturing industry production rebounded slightly (+0.1% after ‑0.2%), driven by upturns in transport equipment (+2.1% after ‑0.7%), and “other manufactured products” (+0.4% after ‑0.3%). However, production fell in refineries (‑1.4% after +6.8%) and in food industry (‑1.5% after ‑1.6%).

Construction production continued to fall (‑0.7% after ‑0.3%).

The production of market services was stable this quarter (0.0% after +0.1%) due, in part, to the fall of production in trade (‑0.4% after +0.2%) and, mainly, in the accommodation and catering sector (‑1.1% after ‑0.2%). Conversely, production remained on the rise in business services (+0.3% after +0.4%) and in household services (+0.7% after +0.6%).

Over 2023, production decelerated significantly (+1.7% after +3.7%). This was particularly the case in services (+1.1% after +4.7%, especially in the accommodation and catering sector, which in 2022 benefited from the rebound following the health crisis). In contrast, production of manufactured goods kept a similar rate to the previous year (+1.4% after +1.7%).

GDP and its main components

GDP and its main components
Inventory changes Net foreign trade Consumption GDP GFCF
2023-Q4 -1.06 1.15 0.05 0.0 -0.17
2023-Q3 -0.35 -0.07 0.34 0.0 0.05
2023-Q2 0.5 -0.01 0.06 0.7 0.11
2023-Q1 -0.46 0.56 0.09 0.0 -0.14
2022-Q4 -0.3 0.25 -0.09 0.0 0.09
2022-Q3 0.18 -0.5 0.35 0.6 0.53
2022-Q2 0.46 -0.46 0.25 0.4 0.12
2022-Q1 0.34 -0.01 -0.54 -0.1 0.08
2021-Q4 0.67 -0.42 0.3 0.5 -0.01
2021-Q3 -0.96 0.65 3.3 3.0 0.0
2021-Q2 -0.08 -0.17 0.72 0.9 0.4
2021-Q1 0.19 -0.51 0.24 0.0 0.13

GDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE

Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2022 2023
Production of branches 0.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.7 1.7
Goods 1.9 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.5 3.3
Manufactured industry 0.8 1.0 -0.2 0.1 1.7 1.4
Construction -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -1.0
Market services -0.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.6 1.5
Non-market services 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 0.7
Household consumption 0.3 0.0 0.5 -0.1 2.1 0.7
Food products -1.8 -1.8 0.2 -1.1 -3.6 -4.7
Energy 5.9 0.2 0.1 -2.5 -4.1 -1.0
Engineered goods -0.1 0.1 1.2 0.6 -1.1 0.9
Services 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.3 8.5 2.4
GFCF -0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.7 2.3 1.2
Manufactured goods -0.1 0.4 1.1 -0.8 3.5 4.7
Construction -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 -1.0 -0.9 -1.4
Market services -0.7 1.4 0.3 -0.2 5.4 2.2
  • Source: INSEE

Household consumption fell slightly in Q4 2023 (‑0.1% after +0.5%)

Household consumption fell slightly in the fourth quarter of 2023 (‑0.1% after +0.5%). Household purchases of goods shrank this quarter (‑0.6% after +0.6%), in particular food consumption (‑1.1% after +0.2%). Energy consumption weakened sharply (‑2.5% after +0.1%) as a result of milder temperatures this autumn. By contrast, spendings on transport equipment continued to rise (+3.3% after +2.6%).

Unlike consumption of goods, household consumption of services was up 0.3% this quarter, at a similar rate to the previous quarter (+0.4%). Consumption of transport services accelerated (+2.0% after +0.4%), especially in rail transport. However, consumption of accommodation and catering services fell back sharply (‑1.3% after +0.1%).

Over 2023, household consumption slowed down (+0.7% after +2.1%). Household consumption of services decelerated significantly (+2.4% after +8.5%), due to accommodation and catering. Consumption of goods fell again (‑1.6% after ‑2.6%), driven by a further decline in the food sector (‑4.7% after ‑3.6%), and despite the rebound in transport equipment (+7.4% after ‑2.8%).

GFCF declined in Q4 2023 (‑0.7% after +0.2%)

Total GFCF declined significantly in the fourth quarter of 2023 (‑0.7% after +0.2%), due to a decline in both GFCF in manufactured goods (‑0.8% after +1.1%) and GFCF in market services (‑0.2% after +0.3%). In manufactured products, investment in transport equipment decreased (‑0.8% after +4.7%), as in capital goods (‑0.9% after +0.1%) and in the “other manufactured products” (‑0.7% after ‑1.5%).

Construction investment continued to decline (‑1.0% after ‑0.4%) and investment in real estate services were still falling (‑1.6% after ‑5.7%). Investment in information-communication fell this quarter (‑0.6% after +0.9%) for the first time since the second quarter of 2020.

Over 2023, investment slowed slightly (+1.2% after +2.3%), held back by a further decline in investment in construction (‑1.4% after ‑0.9%), and by a slowdown in investment in information- communication (+7.3% after +10.4%), which nevertheless remained very dynamic. However, investment in transport equipment rebounded (+14.3% after ‑5.6%).

Foreign trade contributed positively to GDP growth (+1.2 points)

The contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was positive in Q4 2023 (+1.2 points, after ‑0.1 points in the previous quarter), due to a sharp fall in imports.

Imports fell sharply this quarter (‑3.1% after ‑0.4%). They were driven down by imports of manufactured goods (‑4.0% after ‑1.7%), especially imports of refined oil (‑9.8% after ‑12.5%), capital goods (‑4.6% after ‑2.7%) and transport equipment (‑4.1% after +3.7%).

Exports were almost stable in the fourth quarter of 2023 (‑0.1% after ‑0.6%). They declined in agricultural products (‑2.6% after +0.1%), agri-food products (‑1.8% after ‑2.0%), transport equipment (‑2.7% after ‑4.6%), and “other manufactured products” (‑1.5% after +0.6%). Conversely, exports of services rebounded (+1.4% after ‑0.5%), in particular in transport services (+3.9% after ‑1.4%).

Over 2023, imports fell slightly (‑0.3% after +8.8%), while exports rose (+1.5% after +7.4%) so that the annual contribution from foreign trade was +0.6 points (after ‑0.6 points).

The contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was negative in Q4 2023 (‑1.1 points)

The contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was negative again this quarter: ‑1.1 points, after ‑0.3 points in Q3 2023. Negative contributions were particularly marked for refined oil, capital goods and “other manufactured products”.

Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2022 2023 (ovhg)
HDI 0.9 1.5 0.9 na 5.1 7.0
HDI (purchasing power) -1.0 0.1 -0.1 na 0.2 0.7
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) -1.2 0.0 -0.2 na -0.4 0.2
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) -0.8 0.1 0.0 na 1.1 0.7
Saving rate (level) 17.7 17.7 17.3 na 17.5 na
Financial saving rate (level) 6.7 7.0 6.7 na 6.2 na
  • * cu: consumption unit
  • na: not available at first estimate
  • Source: INSEE

Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account (level (in percent), WDA-SA data)
2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2022
Profit share 31.6 33.1 33.0 na 31.7
Investment ratio 26.0 25.5 25.6 na 25.9
Savings ratio 21.1 22.4 22.3 na 22.2
Self-financing ratio 81.2 87.7 87.0 na 85.8
  • na: not available at first estimate
  • Source: INSEE

Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations (level, WDA-SA data)
2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2022
In billions of euros
Total expenditure 392.5 391.9 394.5 na 1,538.8
Total receipts 361.9 360.7 360.4 na 1,412.0
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -30.6 -31.2 -34.1 na -126.8
In % of GDP
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -4.5 -4.5 -4.8 na -4.8
  • na: not available at first estimate
  • Source: INSEE

Revisions

The estimate of GDP growth has been revised upwards by 0.1 points (after rounding) in the third quarter of 2023, it therefore stood at 0.0%. Imports have been significantly revised downwards and exports slightly upwards: the contribution of foreign trade has therefore been revised upwards by 0.3 points, to ‑0.1 points, compared with ‑0.4 points in the previous publication. Contribution of final domestic demand (excluding inventories) has been revised downwards by 0.1 points, to +0.4 points, compared with +0.5 point. The contribution of inventory changes has been revised downwards by 0.1 points, to ‑0.3 points, compared with ‑0.2 point.

Since the previous publication, new information has been incorporated and the seasonal adjustment (SA) and working day adjustment (WDA) coefficients have been updated.

For further information

Next publication: 29 February 2024, at 8:45 am.

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