Informations Rapides · 30 January 2024 · n° 23

GDP remained stable in Q4 2023. On average in 2023, it increased by 0.9% Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - fourth quarter 2023

In Q4 2023, gross domestic product (GDP) was stable in volume terms* (0.0% after 0.0% in the previous quarter).

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed negatively to GDP growth this quarter (‑0.1 points after +0.4 points in Q3 2023), due to the decrease of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, ‑0.7% after +0.2%) and of household consumption (‑0.1% after +0.5%).

Conversely, foreign trade recovered in Q4 2023 and contributed positively to GDP growth (+1.2 points after ‑0.1 points). Imports fell sharply (‑3.1% after ‑0.4%), while exports remained virtually unchanged (‑0.1% after ‑0.6%).

Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was negative again this quarter (‑1.1 points after ‑0.3 points in Q3 2023).

On average in 2023, GDP increased by 0.9% (after +2.5% in 2022 and +6.4% in 2021). This annual growth was mostly the result of a sharp rise in the second quarter of 2023, while activity remained stable over the rest of the year. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, the growth overhang for 2024 stood at +0.1%.

_{* Volumes are measured at previous year's prices, chain-linked and adjusted for seasonal variations and working day effects (SA-WDA).}

Total production (goods and services) was sluggish in the fourth quarter of 2023 (0.0% after +0.1% in the previous quarter).

Manufacturing industry production rebounded slightly (+0.1% after ‑0.2%), driven by upturns in transport equipment (+2.1% after ‑0.7%), and “other manufactured products” (+0.4% after ‑0.3%). However, production fell in refineries (‑1.4% after +6.8%) and in food industry (‑1.5% after ‑1.6%).

Construction production continued to fall (‑0.7% after ‑0.3%).

The production of market services was stable this quarter (0.0% after +0.1%) due, in part, to the fall of production in trade (‑0.4% after +0.2%) and, mainly, in the accommodation and catering sector (‑1.1% after ‑0.2%). Conversely, production remained on the rise in business services (+0.3% after +0.4%) and in household services (+0.7% after +0.6%).

Over 2023, production decelerated significantly (+1.7% after +3.7%). This was particularly the case in services (+1.1% after +4.7%, especially in the accommodation and catering sector, which in 2022 benefited from the rebound following the health crisis). In contrast, production of manufactured goods kept a similar rate to the previous year (+1.4% after +1.7%).

Household consumption fell slightly in the fourth quarter of 2023 (‑0.1% after +0.5%). Household purchases of goods shrank this quarter (‑0.6% after +0.6%), in particular food consumption (‑1.1% after +0.2%). Energy consumption weakened sharply (‑2.5% after +0.1%) as a result of milder temperatures this autumn. By contrast, spendings on transport equipment continued to rise (+3.3% after +2.6%).

Unlike consumption of goods, household consumption of services was up 0.3% this quarter, at a similar rate to the previous quarter (+0.4%). Consumption of transport services accelerated (+2.0% after +0.4%), especially in rail transport. However, consumption of accommodation and catering services fell back sharply (‑1.3% after +0.1%).

Over 2023, household consumption slowed down (+0.7% after +2.1%). Household consumption of services decelerated significantly (+2.4% after +8.5%), due to accommodation and catering. Consumption of goods fell again (‑1.6% after ‑2.6%), driven by a further decline in the food sector (‑4.7% after ‑3.6%), and despite the rebound in transport equipment (+7.4% after ‑2.8%).

Total GFCF declined significantly in the fourth quarter of 2023 (‑0.7% after +0.2%), due to a decline in both GFCF in manufactured goods (‑0.8% after +1.1%) and GFCF in market services (‑0.2% after +0.3%). In manufactured products, investment in transport equipment decreased (‑0.8% after +4.7%), as in capital goods (‑0.9% after +0.1%) and in the “other manufactured products” (‑0.7% after ‑1.5%).

Construction investment continued to decline (‑1.0% after ‑0.4%) and investment in real estate services were still falling (‑1.6% after ‑5.7%). Investment in information-communication fell this quarter (‑0.6% after +0.9%) for the first time since the second quarter of 2020.

Over 2023, investment slowed slightly (+1.2% after +2.3%), held back by a further decline in investment in construction (‑1.4% after ‑0.9%), and by a slowdown in investment in information- communication (+7.3% after +10.4%), which nevertheless remained very dynamic. However, investment in transport equipment rebounded (+14.3% after ‑5.6%).

The contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was positive in Q4 2023 (+1.2 points, after ‑0.1 points in the previous quarter), due to a sharp fall in imports.

Imports fell sharply this quarter (‑3.1% after ‑0.4%). They were driven down by imports of manufactured goods (‑4.0% after ‑1.7%), especially imports of refined oil (‑9.8% after ‑12.5%), capital goods (‑4.6% after ‑2.7%) and transport equipment (‑4.1% after +3.7%).

Exports were almost stable in the fourth quarter of 2023 (‑0.1% after ‑0.6%). They declined in agricultural products (‑2.6% after +0.1%), agri-food products (‑1.8% after ‑2.0%), transport equipment (‑2.7% after ‑4.6%), and “other manufactured products” (‑1.5% after +0.6%). Conversely, exports of services rebounded (+1.4% after ‑0.5%), in particular in transport services (+3.9% after ‑1.4%).

Over 2023, imports fell slightly (‑0.3% after +8.8%), while exports rose (+1.5% after +7.4%) so that the annual contribution from foreign trade was +0.6 points (after ‑0.6 points).

The contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was negative again this quarter: ‑1.1 points, after ‑0.3 points in Q3 2023. Negative contributions were particularly marked for refined oil, capital goods and “other manufactured products”.

The estimate of GDP growth has been revised upwards by 0.1 points (after rounding) in the third quarter of 2023, it therefore stood at 0.0%. Imports have been significantly revised downwards and exports slightly upwards: the contribution of foreign trade has therefore been revised upwards by 0.3 points, to ‑0.1 points, compared with ‑0.4 points in the previous publication. Contribution of final domestic demand (excluding inventories) has been revised downwards by 0.1 points, to +0.4 points, compared with +0.5 point. The contribution of inventory changes has been revised downwards by 0.1 points, to ‑0.3 points, compared with ‑0.2 point.

Since the previous publication, new information has been incorporated and the seasonal adjustment (SA) and working day adjustment (WDA) coefficients have been updated.