Informations Rapides ·
24 October 2023 · n° 270
In October 2023, the business climate remains deteriorated in the building craft sector Quarterly survey of the building crafts sector - October 2023
Given that this survey’s response rate has been continuously deteriorating across the years, the quarterly business survey in the building craft sector will not be renewed in 2024. Indeed, its weak response rate significantly diminishes its accuracy and thus the reliability of its results. The present edition of the Informations Rapides dedicated to the economic outlook in the building craft sector is thus the last one. The corresponding indexes are also stopped, while still remaining available in the INSEE database. Additionally, the outlook in the building construction sector keeps on being monitored, mainly through the business survey in the building construction sector, which is conducted among companies with at least 11 employees, and whose response rate remains at a good level.
The opinion on the activity remains degraded despite a slight rebound in the balance on the upcoming activity
In October 2023, the craftsmen hold a more degraded assessment regarding their past activity compared to that of the previous quarter: the associated balance of opinion has gone back slightly and remains below its long term average. Conversely, craftsmen’s opinion about their upcoming activity over the next three months has somewhat improved. The corresponding balance of opinion has rebounded slightly, but also remains below its long term average.
The balance of opinion regarding the general outlook of the sector is stable, well below its long term average.
Building craftsmen’s opinion regarding the change in their workforce size is stable
In October 2023, craftsmen’s opinion on the evolution of both their upcoming and past workforce size is almost stable. While the balance of opinion about their past workforce size remains well below its long term average, the balance regarding their upcoming workforce size stands right above its own.
Recruitment difficulties remain frequent
In October 2023, 57% of craftsmen have reported experiencing recruiting difficulties. This proportion, widely above its long term average, has risen slightly compared to July.
The share of building craftsmen declaring that they are training apprentices has increased a bit: at 43%, it stands slightly above its long term average (38%).
tableauBuilding crafts sector economic outlook
| Mean* | Jan. 23 | Apr. 23 | Jul. 23 | Oct. 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past activity | -5 | -2 | 8 | -9 | -10 |
| Expected activity | -8 | -9 | -4 | -16 | -13 |
| General business outlook | -18 | -22 | -20 | -33 | -33 |
| Past employment | -4 | -4 | -9 | -12 | -12 |
| Expected employment | -3 | -3 | -5 | 0 | 1 |
| Recruiting problems (in %) | 43 | 58 | 58 | 54 | 57 |
| Apprentice training (in %) | 38 | 40 | 38 | 40 | 43 |
- * Mean since October 1990.
- Source: French business survey, building crafts sector - INSEE
tableauActivity tendency in the building crafts sector
| Expected activity | Past activity | |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-Q4 | -13.2 | -9.7 |
| 2023-Q3 | -15.7 | -8.5 |
| 2023-Q2 | -4.2 | 7.7 |
| 2023-Q1 | -9.5 | -1.8 |
| 2022-Q4 | -4.3 | 0.0 |
| 2022-Q3 | -5.7 | -2.1 |
| 2022-Q2 | 2.7 | 0.1 |
| 2022-Q1 | 13.7 | 4.9 |
| 2021-Q4 | 5.3 | 8.0 |
| 2021-Q3 | 13.5 | 7.2 |
| 2021-Q2 | 8.1 | 3.1 |
| 2021-Q1 | -4.7 | -16.9 |
| 2020-Q4 | -0.5 | 5.0 |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.2 | -46.3 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | 6.2 | -8.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | -3.1 | 2.1 |
| 2019-Q3 | -5.2 | 6.5 |
| 2019-Q2 | -2.2 | -3.8 |
| 2019-Q1 | -5.7 | -12.5 |
| 2018-Q4 | -2.9 | -1.7 |
| 2018-Q3 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 2018-Q2 | -2.7 | 5.3 |
| 2018-Q1 | 11.1 | 6.4 |
| 2017-Q4 | 2.9 | -3.7 |
| 2017-Q3 | -3.7 | 1.5 |
| 2017-Q2 | -1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.6 | -3.7 |
| 2016-Q4 | -8.4 | -5.7 |
| 2016-Q3 | -8.0 | -12.2 |
| 2016-Q2 | -16.6 | -15.2 |
| 2016-Q1 | -16.3 | -9.5 |
| 2015-Q4 | -17.1 | -19.6 |
| 2015-Q3 | -22.2 | -14.9 |
| 2015-Q2 | -30.0 | -29.7 |
| 2015-Q1 | -32.4 | -29.8 |
| 2014-Q4 | -33.8 | -24.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -29.6 | -31.7 |
| 2014-Q2 | -26.1 | -22.2 |
| 2014-Q1 | -28.1 | -25.1 |
| 2013-Q4 | -24.1 | -24.3 |
| 2013-Q3 | -28.6 | -28.6 |
| 2013-Q2 | -31.7 | -27.3 |
| 2013-Q1 | -24.7 | -24.1 |
| 2012-Q4 | -39.4 | -26.0 |
| 2012-Q3 | -25.8 | -18.2 |
| 2012-Q2 | -21.2 | -15.4 |
| 2012-Q1 | -22.6 | -11.2 |
| 2011-Q4 | -17.6 | -14.1 |
| 2011-Q3 | -11.7 | -9.3 |
| 2011-Q2 | -7.2 | -6.5 |
| 2011-Q1 | -8.5 | -15.4 |
| 2010-Q4 | -6.2 | -9.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | -14.6 | -18.6 |
| 2010-Q2 | -19.1 | -21.4 |
| 2010-Q1 | -17.4 | -20.2 |
| 2009-Q4 | -20.9 | -21.9 |
| 2009-Q3 | -30.3 | -29.4 |
| 2009-Q2 | -25.8 | -15.6 |
| 2009-Q1 | -36.7 | -34.5 |
| 2008-Q4 | -35.3 | -24.2 |
| 2008-Q3 | -14.4 | -16.0 |
| 2008-Q2 | -8.8 | -11.9 |
| 2008-Q1 | 12.9 | -7.3 |
| 2007-Q4 | 5.1 | -2.8 |
| 2007-Q3 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| 2007-Q1 | 4.9 | 6.9 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueActivity tendency in the building crafts sector
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
Revisions
The balances of opinion for July 2023 have been revised due to the integration of late responses from companies. In particular, the balance of opinion on the upcoming activity has been revised downwards by 7 points: it now stands at -16. The large spread of this revision is due, among other things, to a weak response rate.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 26 September and 18 October 2023.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “higher than usual” or “increase” responses and the percentage of “lower than usual” or “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 26 September and 18 October 2023.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.