Informations Rapides · 28 July 2023 · n° 193

GDP increased significantly in Q2 2023 (+0.5% after +0.1%) Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - second quarter 2023

In Q2 2023, gross domestic product (GDP) increased significantly (+0.5% in volume terms*, after +0.1% in the previous quarter).

Foreign trade contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.7 points after +0.5 points). Exports bounced back this quarter (+2.6% after -0.8%), as well as imports to a lesser extent (+0.4% after - 2.0%).

Conversely, final domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed again negatively to GDP growth (-0.1 points in Q2 2023, as in the previous quarter), because of the decrease of household consumption (-0.4% after 0.0%). Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased (+0.1% after - 0.4%).

Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was slightly negative this quarter (- 0.1 points after -0.3 points in Q1 2023).

* Volumes are measured at previous year's prices, chain-linked and adjusted for seasonal variations and working day effects (SA-WDA).

Total production (goods and services) rose in the second quarter of 2023 at a faster pace than in the previous quarter (+0.8% after +0.4%).

This acceleration was partly due to the dynamism of the manufacturing industry (+1.1% after +0.8%). Production accelerated in transport equipment (+3.6% after +2.8%), slowed down significantly in the refineries (+1.7% after +10.1%), and recovered in “other manufactured products” (+0.5% after -0.4%). At the same time, energy production remained dynamic, following the continued reopening of nuclear power plants (+4.1% after +4.0%). Production of market services accelerated as well (+0.7% after 0.0%). It was driven in particular by production of business services (+0.8% after +0.2%), in information-communication (+1.4% after +1.1%), and of transport services (+1.2% after -1.1%). Conversely, production declined more markedly in construction (‑0.8% after ‑0.3%).

Household consumption declined in the second quarter of 2023 (-0,4% after 0.0%). The decline in household purchases of goods this quarter (-0.7% after +0.1%) was due to a further decrease of food consumption, which fell for the sixth consecutive quarter (-2.7% after -2.6%).

Energy consumption slowed down (+1.7% after +6.2%). Half of the increase in the second quarter was explained by the rise in actual energy consumption, and half by a further reduction this quarter in the share of energy expenditure borne by the public sector, due to the timing of payment of the energy voucher.

Household consumption of services rose by 0.7% (after +0.4% in the previous quarter). This acceleration was driven by accommodation and food services (+1.6% after -0.3%) and transport services (+3.0% after +1.6%).

Total GFCF was slightly back on the rise in Q2 2023 (+0.1% after -0.4%). This rebound was driven by the GFCF in manufactured goods (+0.4% after -0.9%), thanks in particular to increased investment in transport equipment (+1.9% after ‑0.8%). GFCF in market services rebounded this quarter (+1.2% after -0.2%), driven by the dynamism of investment in information-communication (+2.1% after +1.7%), and despite the continuing decline of investment in real estate transaction services (‑1.3% after ‑8.0%). Investment in construction declined also again (‑0.9% after ‑0.4%).

In particular, household GFCF kept falling for the fourth consecutive quarter (-1.6% after -1.4%) due to a decline in new housing construction and a drop in real estate transactions in both new and existing buildings.

The contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was positive again in Q2 2023 (+0.7 points, after +0.5 points in the previous quarter), due to a greater increase in exports than in imports.

Exports recovered clearly in the second quarter of 2023 (+2.6% after -0.8%). In particular, exports of transport equipment increased sharply (+11.2% after +1.8%), with notably the delivery of a cruise ship. Moreover, exports rebounded in coking and refining (+10.3% after -5.9%) and in the “other manufactured products” (+1.4% after -1.3%). Exports of services were for their part almost stable (+0.1% after -1.0%).

Imports partially rebounded in the second quarter of 2023 (+0.4% after -2.0%) driven by a rebound in manufactured product imports (+1.2% after -2.3%). In particular, imports in coking and refining grew significantly this quarter (+12.1%), after a sharp decline (-17.8%) in Q1 2023. Imports of the “others manufactured goods” increased this quarter (+1.5% after -3.0%) while those of capital goods continued to decline (-1.2% after -1.0%). At last, imports of services fell back this quarter (-2.0% after +2.5%), due to a decline in transport services (-7.0% after +7.7%).

The contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was slightly negative this quarter: -0.1 points, after -0.3 points in Q1 2023. This near-stability was due to a fall in transport equipment inventories, due in particular to the delivery of a cruise ship, offset by a rebound in coking and refining inventories, following the strikes in the first quarter of 2023.

The estimate of GDP growth has been revised downwards by 0.1 points in the first quarter of 2023 and upwards by 0.1 points in the fourth quarter of 2022. GDP thus increased by +0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 as in the first quarter of 2023. Since the previous publication, new information has been incorporated and the seasonal adjustment (SVA) and working day adjustment (WDA) coefficients have been updated.