Informations Rapides ·
25 July 2023 · n° 189
In July 2023, the opinion of the business managers in civil engineering on their activity
prospects has degraded compared to April Quaterly survey of public works - July 2023
In July 2023, the business climate in the civil engineering sector has deteriorated, regarding both the past and expected activity.
The seasonal coefficients have been updated in July 2023. This has led to revisions in the set of results previously released in this survey. Those revisions have however no impact on the analysis of the economic outlook for the sector.
In July 2023, the business climate in the civil engineering sector has deteriorated, regarding both the past and expected activity.
Business manager’s opinion on their activity has deteriorated
In July 2023, business managers are way less optimistic than in April regarding their upcoming activity over the next three months: the corresponding balance of opinion has gone back significantly, dipping below its long term average. The balances of opinion associated with the evolution of the expected activity within both the public and the private sector have dropped firmly. Both balances are back below their long term averages.
tableauPublic works economic outlook
| Average* | Oct. 22 | Jan. 23 | Apr. 23 | Jul. 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past activity | -5 | -4 | 5 | -5 | -15 |
| - public-sector project | -11 | -12 | -10 | -16 | -26 |
| - private-sector project | -8 | -4 | -1 | -2 | -12 |
| Expected activity | -12 | -7 | -12 | -8 | -15 |
| - public-sector project | -16 | -18 | -18 | -16 | -26 |
| - private-sector project | -14 | -14 | -9 | -7 | -16 |
| Opinion on order books | -23 | -12 | -15 | -13 | -18 |
| Obstacles to production increase because of workforce shortage (in %) | 18 | 45 | 48 | 44 | 43 |
| Expected workforce | -12 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 25 | 36 | 26 | 25 | 17 |
- Note: the balances of opinion by custumer may differ from the balance of the whole, because sometimes the firms don't distinguish public-sector project and private-sector project.
- * Average since January 1981 and since April 2021 for the balances of opinion on the economic uncertainty felt.
- ** Non-seasonally adjusted balance of opinion
- Source: INSEE and FNTP
tableauActivity tendency in civil engineering
| Past activity | Expected activity | |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-Q3 | -15.0 | -15.0 |
| 2023-Q2 | -4.9 | -8.1 |
| 2023-Q1 | 5.0 | -12.1 |
| 2022-Q4 | -4.0 | -6.8 |
| 2022-Q3 | 5.0 | -18.0 |
| 2022-Q2 | 3.0 | -13.4 |
| 2022-Q1 | -4.8 | -1.0 |
| 2021-Q4 | -2.6 | 6.0 |
| 2021-Q3 | 15.6 | 5.4 |
| 2021-Q2 | -9.8 | -8.0 |
| 2021-Q1 | -8.9 | -19.8 |
| 2020-Q4 | 3.6 | -29.8 |
| 2020-Q3 | -89.9 | 17.7 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q1 | 19.3 | -4.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | 29.2 | 10.5 |
| 2019-Q3 | 29.9 | 18.6 |
| 2019-Q2 | 37.3 | 22.8 |
| 2019-Q1 | 32.8 | 25.9 |
| 2018-Q4 | 43.2 | 26.5 |
| 2018-Q3 | 29.6 | 27.8 |
| 2018-Q2 | 28.1 | 32.6 |
| 2018-Q1 | 36.2 | 22.7 |
| 2017-Q4 | 32.5 | 31.4 |
| 2017-Q3 | 36.2 | 28.4 |
| 2017-Q2 | 27.8 | 19.5 |
| 2017-Q1 | 11.2 | 3.4 |
| 2016-Q4 | 9.4 | -5.5 |
| 2016-Q3 | -5.6 | -1.0 |
| 2016-Q2 | -16.8 | -15.4 |
| 2016-Q1 | -18.5 | -15.6 |
| 2015-Q4 | -37.5 | -15.0 |
| 2015-Q3 | -41.0 | -31.7 |
| 2015-Q2 | -50.2 | -43.5 |
| 2015-Q1 | -59.9 | -42.3 |
| 2014-Q4 | -60.3 | -54.5 |
| 2014-Q3 | -45.6 | -48.4 |
| 2014-Q2 | 4.2 | -30.4 |
| 2014-Q1 | -4.2 | -25.6 |
| 2013-Q4 | 3.3 | -15.6 |
| 2013-Q3 | -7.4 | -11.9 |
| 2013-Q2 | -18.4 | -13.5 |
| 2013-Q1 | -11.3 | -13.3 |
| 2012-Q4 | -9.8 | -26.5 |
| 2012-Q3 | -22.6 | -7.6 |
| 2012-Q2 | -12.9 | -6.8 |
| 2012-Q1 | 7.0 | -12.4 |
| 2011-Q4 | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 2011-Q3 | 26.5 | 0.1 |
| 2011-Q2 | 36.8 | 2.3 |
| 2011-Q1 | -32.5 | 0.0 |
| 2010-Q4 | -7.9 | -17.9 |
| 2010-Q3 | -15.9 | -23.9 |
| 2010-Q2 | -33.7 | -20.5 |
| 2010-Q1 | -23.1 | -16.7 |
| 2009-Q4 | -33.3 | -16.1 |
| 2009-Q3 | -50.5 | -34.0 |
| 2009-Q2 | -48.8 | -52.0 |
| 2009-Q1 | -55.3 | -50.6 |
| 2008-Q4 | -30.5 | -47.6 |
| 2008-Q3 | -10.8 | -26.0 |
| 2008-Q2 | 16.3 | -16.0 |
| 2008-Q1 | 20.1 | 2.7 |
| 2007-Q4 | 22.8 | 14.6 |
| 2007-Q3 | 36.2 | 13.9 |
| 2007-Q2 | 39.7 | 21.5 |
| 2007-Q1 | 39.0 | 16.9 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueActivity tendency in civil engineering
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
- Sources: FNTP and INSEE.
In July 2023, business manager’s opinion on the evolution of their activity over the past three months has clearly deteriorated again. The corresponding balance of opinion has gone below its long term average. This drop concerns both the private and the public sector.
Less business managers than in April have considered the evolution of their company situation to be unpredictable: the balance of opinion about the economic uncertainty felt has dropped sharply.
The order books are judged less garnished than in April
In July 2023, less business managers than in April have reported the level of their order book to be higher than average. The corresponding balance of opinion has dropped back. It remains however above its long term average.
Difficulties due to a lack of manpower remain important
In July 2023, difficulties due to a lack of manpower are mentioned almost as often as in April: 43% of companies have reported some (against 44% in April), a proportion that remains way above its long term average.
Employment prospects have improved
In July 2023, more business managers than in April have reported that they plan to increase their workforce size over the next three months. The corresponding balance has rebounded after two consecutive quarters of decline. It stands well above its long term average.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 21 June 2023 and 17 July 2023.
Next issue: 24 October 2023 at 12:00 pm.
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,123 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 21 June 2023 and 17 July 2023.
Next issue: 24 October 2023 at 12:00 pm.