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Informations Rapides · 20 July 2023 · n° 185
Informations rapidesIn July 2023, the business climate is stable in services Monthly survey of services - July 2023

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2023, the business climate is stable in services. At 102, the indicator that synthesizes it remains above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 185
Paru le :Paru le20/07/2023
Prochaine parution le : 23/01/2025 at 08:45 - January 2025
Warning

The seasonal coefficients as well as the parameters of the composite indicators have been updated in July 2023. That has led to revisions in the set of results previously published from this survey. Those revisions are for the most part quite minor and have no impact on the analysis of the business situation.

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2023, the business climate is stable in services. At 102, the indicator that synthesizes it remains above its long-term average (100).

Business climate composite indicator

Business climate composite indicator
Business climate composite indicator
2023-07 101.6
2023-06 101.9
2023-05 101.3
2023-04 103.0
2023-03 104.6
2023-02 105.2
2023-01 104.4
2022-12 103.5
2022-11 103.4
2022-10 104.4
2022-09 105.5
2022-08 106.5
2022-07 106.1
2022-06 107.5
2022-05 108.6
2022-04 108.2
2022-03 108.6
2022-02 111.5
2022-01 105.1
2021-12 107.1
2021-11 113.3
2021-10 112.3
2021-09 110.1
2021-08 108.6
2021-07 110.7
2021-06 112.2
2021-05 106.4
2021-04 91.6
2021-03 93.9
2021-02 87.8
2021-01 91.1
2020-12 89.4
2020-11 76.2
2020-10 87.5
2020-09 93.9
2020-08 93.6
2020-07 88.7
2020-06 77.9
2020-05 50.4
2020-04 39.7
2020-03 92.4
2020-02 105.6
2020-01 106.0
2019-12 106.3
2019-11 105.7
2019-10 105.1
2019-09 105.6
2019-08 105.1
2019-07 104.7
2019-06 105.5
2019-05 105.4
2019-04 105.5
2019-03 104.6
2019-02 103.5
2019-01 103.5
2018-12 101.8
2018-11 103.4
2018-10 102.8
2018-09 104.4
2018-08 104.0
2018-07 104.3
2018-06 104.3
2018-05 104.2
2018-04 105.8
2018-03 106.8
2018-02 106.7
2018-01 107.5
2017-12 108.6
2017-11 107.0
2017-10 106.3
2017-09 106.4
2017-08 106.2
2017-07 103.8
2017-06 103.1
2017-05 102.8
2017-04 103.1
2017-03 103.2
2017-02 102.9
2017-01 101.6
2016-12 103.4
2016-11 100.8
2016-10 100.7
2016-09 100.7
2016-08 100.1
2016-07 100.3
2016-06 99.1
2016-05 100.7
2016-04 98.3
2016-03 99.5
2016-02 99.8
2016-01 100.1
2015-12 97.1
2015-11 99.2
2015-10 99.4
2015-09 97.6
2015-08 98.5
2015-07 97.4
2015-06 96.8
2015-05 95.4
2015-04 94.0
2015-03 92.5
2015-02 91.6
2015-01 91.3
2014-12 91.4
2014-11 91.3
2014-10 91.3
2014-09 91.1
2014-08 91.6
2014-07 92.6
2014-06 92.3
2014-05 92.3
2014-04 93.4
2014-03 93.2
2014-02 92.3
2014-01 92.4
2013-12 91.0
2013-11 92.5
2013-10 91.9
2013-09 92.4
2013-08 88.8
2013-07 86.8
2013-06 86.2
2013-05 84.9
2013-04 83.5
2013-03 84.4
2013-02 87.3
2013-01 88.4
2012-12 87.4
2012-11 85.8
2012-10 86.3
2012-09 87.4
2012-08 87.7
2012-07 89.8
2012-06 90.2
2012-05 92.1
2012-04 95.7
2012-03 93.5
2012-02 92.1
2012-01 92.6
2011-12 94.7
2011-11 95.2
2011-10 97.3
2011-09 98.4
2011-08 100.5
2011-07 105.0
2011-06 107.0
2011-05 107.3
2011-04 108.7
2011-03 110.1
2011-02 109.0
2011-01 107.0
2010-12 106.7
2010-11 104.7
2010-10 102.8
2010-09 101.6
2010-08 100.6
2010-07 99.1
2010-06 98.3
2010-05 99.3
2010-04 97.7
2010-03 94.5
2010-02 94.4
2010-01 94.1
2009-12 92.7
2009-11 92.3
2009-10 90.8
2009-09 87.7
2009-08 84.4
2009-07 82.0
2009-06 78.2
2009-05 73.7
2009-04 69.6
2009-03 69.2
2009-02 74.2
2009-01 75.4
2008-12 77.9
2008-11 80.8
2008-10 84.7
2008-09 93.2
2008-08 95.2
2008-07 96.7
2008-06 101.0
2008-05 104.1
2008-04 106.6
2008-03 108.3
2008-02 108.3
2008-01 110.2
2007-12 108.8
2007-11 109.9
2007-10 109.8
2007-09 111.2
2007-08 112.0
2007-07 112.9
2007-06 112.4
2007-05 112.6
2007-04 112.7
2007-03 113.0
2007-02 112.1
2007-01 110.6
2006-12 111.1
2006-11 112.8
2006-10 110.5
2006-09 110.4
2006-08 110.2
2006-07 110.1
2006-06 108.9
2006-05 110.2
2006-04 107.6
2006-03 107.3
2006-02 106.1
2006-01 108.8
2005-12 106.8
2005-11 106.4
2005-10 108.2
2005-09 106.7
2005-08 107.1
2005-07 107.4
2005-06 108.1
2005-05 106.0
2005-04 107.8
2005-03 108.1
2005-02 106.2
2005-01 106.3

Business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

The business managers are less optimistic about their personal activity prospects

In July 2023, the business managers in services are less optimistic than in the previous month about their personal activity prospects: the balance of opinion on expected activity has fallen back and has moved below its long-term average. Conversely, the one on the general business outlook for the sector has slightly improved and has moved above its own. The balance related to the expected demand is for its part stable, just above its average. At the same time, the balance on economic uncertainty felt has rebounded.

The balance of opinion on the activity over the past three months has decreased and has moved below its average level.

The balance on the recent and expected change in selling prices have both slightly decreased but remain above their long-term average.

Expected prices in services

Expected prices in services
Expected prices
2023-07 5.8
2023-06 6.7
2023-05 7.3
2023-04 11.9
2023-03 14.5
2023-02 16.1
2023-01 18.6
2022-12 15.8
2022-11 13.2
2022-10 12.2
2022-09 11.2
2022-08 10.7
2022-07 10.8
2022-06 11.4
2022-05 10.3
2022-04 10.3
2022-03 8.0
2022-02 8.2
2022-01 7.1
2021-12 5.2
2021-11 7.0
2021-10 4.5
2021-09 3.9
2021-08 4.3
2021-07 3.7
2021-06 1.0
2021-05 -0.6
2021-04 -9.7
2021-03 -7.4
2021-02 -11.5
2021-01 -10.1
2020-12 -8.2
2020-11 -12.5
2020-10 -8.9
2020-09 -3.0
2020-08 -5.3
2020-07 -8.7
2020-06 -12.3
2020-05 -22.4
2020-04 -23.9
2020-03 -3.3
2020-02 0.4
2020-01 0.0
2019-12 0.2
2019-11 -0.1
2019-10 1.7
2019-09 -0.6
2019-08 -1.1
2019-07 0.0
2019-06 0.2
2019-05 -1.6
2019-04 -3.0
2019-03 -1.0
2019-02 -2.6
2019-01 -2.3
2018-12 0.1
2018-11 -2.5
2018-10 -2.8
2018-09 -1.5
2018-08 -0.6
2018-07 -6.8
2018-06 -4.9
2018-05 -1.8
2018-04 -3.2
2018-03 -3.4
2018-02 -3.7
2018-01 -2.4
2017-12 -3.4
2017-11 -2.7
2017-10 -2.4
2017-09 -1.7
2017-08 -5.6
2017-07 -7.0
2017-06 -4.5
2017-05 -4.8
2017-04 -5.4
2017-03 -3.7
2017-02 -3.7
2017-01 -6.3
2016-12 -5.5
2016-11 -7.7
2016-10 -6.8
2016-09 -4.8
2016-08 -5.2
2016-07 -4.7
2016-06 -6.8
2016-05 -6.2
2016-04 -4.9
2016-03 -5.1
2016-02 -4.6
2016-01 -8.5
2015-12 -8.9
2015-11 -5.8
2015-10 -5.9
2015-09 -7.5
2015-08 -6.4
2015-07 -6.9
2015-06 -6.1
2015-05 -6.2
2015-04 -7.8
2015-03 -9.8
2015-02 -9.7
2015-01 -11.4
2014-12 -11.0
2014-11 -10.3
2014-10 -9.5
2014-09 -10.6
2014-08 -9.0
2014-07 -9.2
2014-06 -9.3
2014-05 -9.9
2014-04 -9.6
2014-03 -10.8
2014-02 -11.0
2014-01 -8.4
2013-12 -9.4
2013-11 -8.5
2013-10 -10.1
2013-09 -10.4
2013-08 -10.7
2013-07 -12.3
2013-06 -12.0
2013-05 -12.3
2013-04 -12.3
2013-03 -12.0
2013-02 -11.9
2013-01 -9.8
2012-12 -9.2
2012-11 -9.6
2012-10 -11.0
2012-09 -7.6
2012-08 -7.8
2012-07 -4.3
2012-06 -6.0
2012-05 -5.6
2012-04 -4.2
2012-03 -0.7
2012-02 -3.4
2012-01 0.5
2011-12 -2.3
2011-11 -4.3
2011-10 -3.0
2011-09 -1.6
2011-08 -1.5
2011-07 -0.3
2011-06 0.5
2011-05 5.1
2011-04 2.4
2011-03 3.5
2011-02 3.3
2011-01 -0.1
2010-12 0.0
2010-11 -1.1
2010-10 -0.9
2010-09 -3.1
2010-08 -3.8
2010-07 -7.7
2010-06 -5.4
2010-05 -5.7
2010-04 -7.8
2010-03 -7.5
2010-02 -9.0
2010-01 -8.5
2009-12 -10.1
2009-11 -10.1
2009-10 -9.4
2009-09 -12.4
2009-08 -14.4
2009-07 -18.5
2009-06 -15.4
2009-05 -17.8
2009-04 -17.7
2009-03 -17.1
2009-02 -13.1
2009-01 -13.1
2008-12 -13.8
2008-11 -9.6
2008-10 -2.7
2008-09 0.3
2008-08 1.5
2008-07 3.4
2008-06 3.2
2008-05 3.4
2008-04 3.9
2008-03 2.6
2008-02 2.1
2008-01 2.2
2007-12 3.0
2007-11 2.7
2007-10 1.3
2007-09 2.3
2007-08 3.2
2007-07 3.4
2007-06 2.1
2007-05 2.9
2007-04 2.2
2007-03 1.5
2007-02 1.1
2007-01 1.8

Expected prices in services

  • Source: INSEE

In July 2023, the balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months has fallen back and remains below its average. The one on the expected workforce size over the next three months has also fallen back but remains above its own.

Besides, 53% of the business managers have reported difficulties in recruitment. This share remains high, but has decreased since the beginning of the year.

The quarterly balance of opinion on the expected investments for the next three months has decreased again but remains just above its average.

Among the obstacles preventing them from increasing their activity, slightly fewer business managers compared to April have reported difficulties of demand only. This proportion remains well below its long-term average. Similarly, slightly fewer business managers compared to April have reported difficulties of supply only, a proportion above its average.

The quarterly balance on the cash position has slightly decreased compared to April but remains above its average.

Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Average* Apr. 2023 May 2023 Jun. 2023 Jul. 2023
Composite indicator 100 103 101 102 102
General outlook -7 -1 -5 -7 -5
Past activity 2 5 4 4 1
Expected activity 2 1 0 3 1
Expected demand 0 -2 0 1 1
Past selling prices -3 15 14 13 12
Expected selling prices -2 12 7 7 6
Past employment 2 7 -3 0 -2
Past employment except temporary work agencies 0 6 -1 1 1
Expected employment 2 6 4 5 4
Expected employment except temporary work agencies 0 6 6 3 2
Cash position -11 -6 -7
Difficulties of supply and demand
difficulties of supply and demand (in %) 9 6 7
difficulties of supply only (in %) 24 30 27
difficulties of demand only (in %) 29 13 12
Difficulties in recruitment (in %) 31 57 53
Expected investments 3 6 4
Economic uncertainty felt** 12 17 15 9 12
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
  • ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

The business climate is favourable in accommodation and food services but remains gloomy in real estate activities

In July 2023, in accommodation and food services, the business climate indicator has improved sharply and stands well above its average level. In particular, the balances of opinion on the general business outlook and on the expected demand have increased sharply.

In administrative and support services, the business climate has improved slightly and stands just above its average. In particular, the balances of opinion on the general and personal business outlook have rebounded

In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate indicator has increased slightly and stands just above its average. The balances of opinion on the general business outlook and on the expected demand have especially increased.

In road freight transport, the business climate has improved a bit but remains well below its long-term average. In particular, the balances of opinion on activity have increased sharply but remain below their respective average.

In real estate activities, the business climate indicator is stable and remains well below its average. The balances of opinion on activity have increased but those related to the recent and expected change in the workforce size have declined again.

Finally, in information-communication, the business climate indicator has decreased but remains above its average.

Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Average* Apr. 2023 May 2023 Jun. 2023 Jul. 2023
Road freight transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 100 94 94 95
General outlook -18 -16 -27 -22 -28
Past activity -5 -12 -13 -23 -19
Expected activity -6 -7 -18 -21 -16
Expected demand -9 -16 -29 -21 -24
Past employment -5 4 -9 -4 -6
Expected employment -6 -4 -1 -8 1
Accommodation and food service activities (8%)
Composite indicator 100 113 105 105 109
General outlook -13 3 5 1 12
Past activity -7 15 -28 -20 -6
Expected activity -7 14 -10 -2 -12
Expected demand -9 6 -9 -14 6
Past employment -5 4 -18 -1 -2
Expected employment -6 16 6 14 -10
Information and communication (29%)
Composite indicator 100 103 107 108 105
General outlook 0 3 2 4 1
Past activity 8 5 22 27 16
Expected activity 9 -2 18 24 17
Expected demand 9 -2 20 20 20
Past employment 6 21 14 14 14
Expected employment 10 16 19 15 12
Real estate activities (10%)
Composite indicator 100 102 96 90 90
General outlook -4 -9 -8 -12 -11
Past activity 7 9 3 -8 -5
Expected activity 6 5 -4 -3 0
Expected demand 2 -6 -4 -2 -5
Past employment 3 8 2 0 -4
Expected employment 3 5 5 -1 -10
Professional, scientific and technical activities (25%)
Composite indicator 100 104 100 102 103
General outlook -8 -4 -8 -9 -4
Past activity -1 5 0 -1 -2
Expected activity -2 -1 -6 0 -2
Expected demand -5 -5 -7 -6 -2
Past employment 1 2 10 2 -1
Expected employment 1 6 5 3 6
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 103 102 100 101
General outlook -3 7 3 -2 1
Past activity 5 8 7 10 9
Expected activity 5 6 6 4 5
Expected demand 3 5 3 -1 0
Past employment 8 -3 -15 -5 1
Expected employment 7 3 0 2 8
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

Revision

The business climate indicator in services of June 2023 has not been revised (after rounding).

For further information

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

The responses to this survey were collected between 26 June and 17 July 2023.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 24 August 2023 at 8:45 am.

Pour en savoir plus

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

The responses to this survey were collected between 26 June and 17 July 2023.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 24 August 2023 at 8:45 am.

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