Insee
Informations Rapides · 28 April 2023 · n° 110
Informations rapidesGDP increased moderately in Q1 2023 (+0.2%) Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - first quarter 2023

In Q1 2023, gross domestic product (GDP) rose moderately over a quarter (+0.2% in volume terms*) after a stability in the previous quarter.

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed again negatively to GDP growth but less than in the previous quarter (-0.1 points in Q1 2023 after -0.4 points), because of the stability of household consumption (0.0% after -1.0%), whereas gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) declined slightly (-0.2% after 0.0%).

Conversely, foreign trade contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.6 points after +0.2 points). Imports decreased this quarter (-0.6% after +0.1%), while exports remained dynamic (+1.1% after +0.9%).

Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to the evolution of GDP was negative this quarter (-0.3 points after +0.2 points in Q4 2022).

Informations rapides
No 110
Paru le :Paru le28/04/2023
Prochaine parution le : 30/01/2025 at 07:30 - fourth quarter 2024

In Q1 2023, gross domestic product (GDP) rose moderately over a quarter (+0.2% in volume terms*) after a stability in the previous quarter.

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed again negatively to GDP growth but less than in the previous quarter (-0.1 points in Q1 2023 after -0.4 points), because of the stability of household consumption (0.0% after -1.0%), whereas gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) declined slightly (-0.2% after 0.0%).

Conversely, foreign trade contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.6 points after +0.2 points). Imports decreased this quarter (-0.6% after +0.1%), while exports remained dynamic (+1.1% after +0.9%).

Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to the evolution of GDP was negative this quarter (-0.3 points after +0.2 points in Q4 2022).

* Volumes are measured at previous year's prices, chain-linked and adjusted for seasonal variations and working day effects (SA-WDA).

GDP - SA-WDA

GDP - SA-WDA
PIB
2023-Q1 590658
2022-Q4 589605
2022-Q3 589459
2022-Q2 588921
2022-Q1 585770
2021-Q4 587170
2021-Q3 583607
2021-Q2 564937
2021-Q1 559435
2020-Q4 558741
2020-Q3 563877
2020-Q2 476133
2020-Q1 550979
2019-Q4 583269
2019-Q3 584983
2019-Q2 585034
2019-Q1 580933
2018-Q4 577012
2018-Q3 573648
2018-Q2 571467
2018-Q1 568911
2017-Q4 568521
2017-Q3 565172
2017-Q2 560443
2017-Q1 555889
2016-Q4 551793
2016-Q3 548688
2016-Q2 547107
2016-Q1 548695
2015-Q4 545238
2015-Q3 544271
2015-Q2 543021
2015-Q1 542350
2014-Q4 539461
2014-Q3 539799
2014-Q2 536707
2014-Q1 536182
2013-Q4 536089
2013-Q3 532713
2013-Q2 533167
2013-Q1 529624
2012-Q4 529153
2012-Q3 529910
2012-Q2 528639
2012-Q1 529445
2011-Q4 529191
2011-Q3 528370
2011-Q2 525722
2011-Q1 526176
2010-Q4 520659
2010-Q3 517388
2010-Q2 514118
2010-Q1 511609
2009-Q4 509864
2009-Q3 506252
2009-Q2 505356
2009-Q1 505427
2008-Q4 514210
2008-Q3 522062
2008-Q2 522941
2008-Q1 525785
2007-Q4 523293
2007-Q3 522304
2007-Q2 519845
2007-Q1 516306
2006-Q4 512593
2006-Q3 508953
2006-Q2 508505
2006-Q1 503285
2005-Q4 499465
2005-Q3 496144
2005-Q2 493402
2005-Q1 492025

GDP - SA-WDA

  • Source: INSEE

GDP and its main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2022 2023 (ovhg)
GDP 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 2.6 0.4
Imports 1.3 3.8 0.1 -0.6 9.4 1.6
Household consumption expenditure 0.4 0.4 -1.0 0.0 2.7 -0.5
General government’s consumption expenditure -0.1 0.2 0.5 -0.1 2.6 0.4
GFCF 0.2 2.0 0.0 -0.2 2.2 0.9
Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises 0.5 3.5 0.4 0.1 3.3 2.3
Households -0.2 -1.0 -1.6 -1.4 0.1 -3.1
General government -0.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.8 1.5
Exports 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.1 7.2 2.6
Contributions:
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.3 0.8 -0.4 -0.1 2.7 0.1
Inventory changes 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.6 0.1
Net foreign trade -0.1 -1.0 0.2 0.6 -0.8 0.2
  • This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
  • Source: INSEE

Total production accelerated slightly in Q1 2023 (+0.4% after +0.1%)

Total production (goods and services) rose once again in the first quarter of 2023 at a slightly faster pace than the previous quarter (+0.4% after +0.1%).

This acceleration was mainly due to the dynamism of the manufacturing industry (+0.7% after -0.4%). Production bounced back in the refineries (+13.1% after -11.4%), the strikes of March 2023 having been less important than those of October 2022, and it accelerated in transport equipment (+2.8% after +1.5%) and equipment goods (+2.1% after +0.3%). In addition, energy production continued its rebound started in the previous quarter following the reopening of nuclear power plants (+3.1% after +1.3%). The production of services rose slightly (+0.2% after +0.1%). It continued to be driven by production in accommodation and food services (+1.5% after +0.2%) and information-communication (+1.3% after +1.1%), but it was notably held back by the decline in transport services (-0.7% after +0.6%).

GDP and its main components

GDP and its main components
Inventory changes Net foreign trade Consumption GDP GFCF
2023-Q1 -0.31 0.57 -0.05 0.2 -0.03
2022-Q4 0.16 0.24 -0.38 0.0 0.0
2022-Q3 0.3 -0.98 0.28 0.1 0.48
2022-Q2 0.34 -0.07 0.21 0.5 0.06
2022-Q1 0.16 -0.18 -0.35 -0.2 0.14
2021-Q4 0.76 -0.6 0.51 0.6 -0.06
2021-Q3 -0.9 0.51 3.6 3.3 0.1
2021-Q2 -0.38 0.26 0.68 1.0 0.42
2021-Q1 0.46 -0.78 0.23 0.1 0.21

GDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE

Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2022 2023 (ovhg)
Production of branches 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.4 3.4 0.8
Goods 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 1.1 0.0 1.0
Manufactured industry 0.7 0.5 -0.4 0.7 1.3 0.8
Construction -0.8 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 -0.6
Market services 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 5.9 1.1
Non-market services -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.5 0.3
Household consumption 0.4 0.4 -1.0 0.0 2.7 -0.5
Food products -1.9 -1.3 -3.1 -2.3 -4.7 -5.7
Energy -1.6 0.7 -6.4 3.7 -4.0 -1.4
Engineered goods -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.0 -1.1 0.1
Services 2.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 9.1 1.7
GFCF 0.2 2.0 0.0 -0.2 2.2 0.9
Manufactured goods -0.4 6.1 0.6 -0.5 1.0 2.8
Construction -1.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.9
Market services 2.1 2.3 -0.2 0.4 5.5 1.9
  • Source: INSEE

Household consumption was stable in Q1 2023 (0.0% after -1.0%)

Household consumption was stable in the first quarter of 2023 (after -1.0%). The decline in household purchases of goods is less pronounced than in the previous quarter (-0.2% after -2.2%) even though food consumption fell for the fifth consecutive quarter (-2.3% after -3.1%). On the other hand, energy consumption rebounded (+3.7% after -6.4%), due to an increase in effective consumption but also caused by the reduction of the share of energy expenses covered by public administrations in the first quarter, in view of the payment schedule for the energy voucher. Household consumption of services increased by 0.6% (after +0.5% in the previous quarter). This slight acceleration was driven by accommodation and food services (+1.6% after +0.2%) and household services (+1.3% after +1.1%).

GFCF declined slightly in Q1 2023 (-0.2% after 0.0%)

Total GFCF contracted slightly in Q1 2023 (-0.2% after 0.0%). This decline is notably due to the decrease of GFCF in manufactured goods (-0.5% after +0.6%), held back in particular by the decline in investment in equipment goods (-1.2% after +3.3%). GFCF in market services rebounded this quarter (+0.4% after -0.2%), driven by the dynamism of GFCF in information-communication (+1.5% after +1.1%) and despite the continued decline of GFCF in real estate services. Finally, GFCF in construction declined again in Q1 2023 (-0.4% after -0.2%).

In particular, household GFCF kept falling for the sixth consecutive quarter (-1.4% after -1.6%) due to a decline in new housing construction and a drop in real estate transactions in both new and existing buildings.

Foreign trade contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.6 points)

The contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was positive again in Q1 2023 (+0.6 points, after +0.2 points in the previous quarter) due to an increase in exports and a decrease in imports.

Exports rose again in the first quarter of 2023 (+1.1% after +0.9%). In particular, exports of transport equipment accelerated significantly (+9.5% after +0.1%). On the contrary, exports of agricultural products dropped sharply (-21.5% after +3.5%).

Imports decreased in the first quarter of 2023 (-0.6% after +0.1%): imports of manufactured goods fell sharply (-2.4% after +1.0%). In particular, imports of refined petroleum dropped significantly this quarter (-18.5%) after a strong increase (+21.8%) in the fourth quarter of 2022 affected by the October strikes. Imports of “others manufactured goods” were down again this quarter (-4.5% after -1.1%) while imports of transport equipment were dynamic (+7.8% after +3.8%). At last, imports of services remained on the rise (+3.3% after +3.9%), driven by imports in transport services (+6.1% after +10.5%).

The contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was slightly negative in Q1 2023 (-0.3 points)

Inventory changes contributed negatively to GDP growth this quarter: -0.3 points, after +0.2 points in Q4 2022. This contribution came notably from the “other manufactured goods”, as the drop in imports of these products was not coupled with an increase in production or a drop in demand excluding inventories.

Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2022
HDI 1.3 2.4 2.8 na 5.5
HDI (purchasing power) -0.7 0.7 0.8 na 0.2
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) -0.8 0.6 0.7 na -0.2
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) -0.5 0.6 0.8 na 1.2
Saving rate (level) 15.9 16.1 17.6 na 16.6
Financial saving rate (level) 4.5 4.8 6.7 na 5.4
  • * cu: consumption unit
  • na: not available at first estimate
  • Source: INSEE

Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account (level (in percent), WDA-SA data)
2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2022
Profit share 32.0 31.9 32.2 na 31.9
Investment ratio 25.3 26.2 26.0 na 25.7
Savings ratio 22.9 23.7 24.3 na 23.7
Self-financing ratio 90.7 90.4 93.6 na 92.2
  • na: not available at first estimate
  • Source: INSEE

Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations (level, WDA-SA data)
2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2023 Q1 2022
In billions of euros
Total expenditure 381.0 388.3 391.3 na 1536.2
Total receipts 356.5 356.6 351.5 na 1411.2
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -24.6 -31.8 -39.9 na -124.9
In % of GDP
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -3.8 -4.8 -5.9 na -4.7
  • na: not available at first estimate
  • Source: INSEE

Revisions

The GDP growth estimate is revised downwards by 0.1 points in the third and fourth quarter of 2022. Thus, GDP rose by 0.1% in Q3 2022 and stabilized in Q4 2022. On the other hand, GDP growth for 2022 is not revised (after rounding) at +2.6%. Since the previous publication, new information have been included and the seasonal adjustment (SA) and working day adjustment (WDA) coefficients have been updated, but these revisions broadly offset each other in the GDP growth estimate.

The quarterly national accounts may be revised at the next release (on 31 May 2023), as a result of the integration of the annual accounts (2020 definitive, 2021 semi-definitive and 2022 provisory), released at the same time and the integration of the annual review of the estimation models for the quarterly accounts. This recalibration takes place every year when the detailed figures for the first quarter are released.

To go further

Next publication: 31 May 2023, at 8:45 am.

Documentation

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