Informations Rapides · 28 April 2023 · n° 110

GDP increased moderately in Q1 2023 (+0.2%) Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - first quarter 2023

In Q1 2023, gross domestic product (GDP) rose moderately over a quarter (+0.2% in volume terms*) after a stability in the previous quarter.

Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed again negatively to GDP growth but less than in the previous quarter (-0.1 points in Q1 2023 after -0.4 points), because of the stability of household consumption (0.0% after -1.0%), whereas gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) declined slightly (-0.2% after 0.0%).

Conversely, foreign trade contributed positively to GDP growth (+0.6 points after +0.2 points). Imports decreased this quarter (-0.6% after +0.1%), while exports remained dynamic (+1.1% after +0.9%).

Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to the evolution of GDP was negative this quarter (-0.3 points after +0.2 points in Q4 2022).

_{* Volumes are measured at previous year's prices, chain-linked and adjusted for seasonal variations and working day effects (SA-WDA).}

Total production (goods and services) rose once again in the first quarter of 2023 at a slightly faster pace than the previous quarter (+0.4% after +0.1%).

This acceleration was mainly due to the dynamism of the manufacturing industry (+0.7% after -0.4%). Production bounced back in the refineries (+13.1% after -11.4%), the strikes of March 2023 having been less important than those of October 2022, and it accelerated in transport equipment (+2.8% after +1.5%) and equipment goods (+2.1% after +0.3%). In addition, energy production continued its rebound started in the previous quarter following the reopening of nuclear power plants (+3.1% after +1.3%). The production of services rose slightly (+0.2% after +0.1%). It continued to be driven by production in accommodation and food services (+1.5% after +0.2%) and information-communication (+1.3% after +1.1%), but it was notably held back by the decline in transport services (-0.7% after +0.6%).

Household consumption was stable in the first quarter of 2023 (after -1.0%). The decline in household purchases of goods is less pronounced than in the previous quarter (-0.2% after -2.2%) even though food consumption fell for the fifth consecutive quarter (-2.3% after -3.1%). On the other hand, energy consumption rebounded (+3.7% after -6.4%), due to an increase in effective consumption but also caused by the reduction of the share of energy expenses covered by public administrations in the first quarter, in view of the payment schedule for the energy voucher. Household consumption of services increased by 0.6% (after +0.5% in the previous quarter). This slight acceleration was driven by accommodation and food services (+1.6% after +0.2%) and household services (+1.3% after +1.1%).

Total GFCF contracted slightly in Q1 2023 (-0.2% after 0.0%). This decline is notably due to the decrease of GFCF in manufactured goods (-0.5% after +0.6%), held back in particular by the decline in investment in equipment goods (-1.2% after +3.3%). GFCF in market services rebounded this quarter (+0.4% after -0.2%), driven by the dynamism of GFCF in information-communication (+1.5% after +1.1%) and despite the continued decline of GFCF in real estate services. Finally, GFCF in construction declined again in Q1 2023 (-0.4% after -0.2%).

In particular, household GFCF kept falling for the sixth consecutive quarter (-1.4% after -1.6%) due to a decline in new housing construction and a drop in real estate transactions in both new and existing buildings.

The contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was positive again in Q1 2023 (+0.6 points, after +0.2 points in the previous quarter) due to an increase in exports and a decrease in imports.

Exports rose again in the first quarter of 2023 (+1.1% after +0.9%). In particular, exports of transport equipment accelerated significantly (+9.5% after +0.1%). On the contrary, exports of agricultural products dropped sharply (-21.5% after +3.5%).

Imports decreased in the first quarter of 2023 (-0.6% after +0.1%): imports of manufactured goods fell sharply (-2.4% after +1.0%). In particular, imports of refined petroleum dropped significantly this quarter (-18.5%) after a strong increase (+21.8%) in the fourth quarter of 2022 affected by the October strikes. Imports of “others manufactured goods” were down again this quarter (-4.5% after -1.1%) while imports of transport equipment were dynamic (+7.8% after +3.8%). At last, imports of services remained on the rise (+3.3% after +3.9%), driven by imports in transport services (+6.1% after +10.5%).

Inventory changes contributed negatively to GDP growth this quarter: -0.3 points, after +0.2 points in Q4 2022. This contribution came notably from the “other manufactured goods”, as the drop in imports of these products was not coupled with an increase in production or a drop in demand excluding inventories.

The GDP growth estimate is revised downwards by 0.1 points in the third and fourth quarter of 2022. Thus, GDP rose by 0.1% in Q3 2022 and stabilized in Q4 2022. On the other hand, GDP growth for 2022 is not revised (after rounding) at +2.6%. Since the previous publication, new information have been included and the seasonal adjustment (SA) and working day adjustment (WDA) coefficients have been updated, but these revisions broadly offset each other in the GDP growth estimate.

The quarterly national accounts may be revised at the next release (on 31 May 2023), as a result of the integration of the annual accounts (2020 definitive, 2021 semi-definitive and 2022 provisory), released at the same time and the integration of the annual review of the estimation models for the quarterly accounts. This recalibration takes place every year when the detailed figures for the first quarter are released.