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Informations Rapides · 20 April 2023 · n° 102
Informations rapidesIn April 2023, the business climate has darkened in services Monthly survey of services - April 2023

According to the business managers surveyed in April 2023, the business climate has deteriorated in services. At 103, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it has lost two points but remains above its long-term average (100). This deterioration is mainly due to the decline in the forward-looking balances of opinion on activity, demand and the workforce size.

Informations rapides
No 102
Paru le :Paru le20/04/2023
Prochaine parution le : 25/04/2024 at 08:45 - April 2024

According to the business managers surveyed in April 2023, the business climate has deteriorated in services. At 103, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it has lost two points but remains above its long-term average (100). This deterioration is mainly due to the decline in the forward-looking balances of opinion on activity, demand and the workforce size.

Business climate composite indicator

Business climate composite indicator
Business climate composite indicator
2023-04 103.0
2023-03 104.7
2023-02 106.2
2023-01 104.8
2022-12 103.8
2022-11 104.2
2022-10 105.4
2022-09 105.4
2022-08 106.5
2022-07 106.5
2022-06 107.5
2022-05 108.9
2022-04 108.0
2022-03 108.4
2022-02 111.8
2022-01 105.2
2021-12 107.0
2021-11 113.8
2021-10 112.6
2021-09 109.7
2021-08 108.2
2021-07 110.6
2021-06 111.6
2021-05 106.1
2021-04 91.1
2021-03 93.4
2021-02 87.9
2021-01 90.9
2020-12 89.4
2020-11 77.1
2020-10 88.2
2020-09 93.9
2020-08 93.1
2020-07 88.3
2020-06 77.3
2020-05 50.5
2020-04 40.2
2020-03 92.4
2020-02 105.7
2020-01 105.9
2019-12 106.2
2019-11 106.0
2019-10 105.5
2019-09 105.4
2019-08 104.8
2019-07 104.8
2019-06 105.5
2019-05 105.2
2019-04 105.2
2019-03 104.4
2019-02 103.4
2019-01 103.4
2018-12 101.7
2018-11 103.5
2018-10 103.0
2018-09 104.2
2018-08 103.7
2018-07 104.2
2018-06 104.3
2018-05 103.8
2018-04 105.6
2018-03 106.5
2018-02 106.4
2018-01 107.4
2017-12 108.3
2017-11 107.1
2017-10 106.5
2017-09 106.3
2017-08 105.8
2017-07 103.7
2017-06 103.2
2017-05 102.4
2017-04 103.0
2017-03 103.0
2017-02 102.6
2017-01 101.5
2016-12 103.3
2016-11 100.7
2016-10 100.6
2016-09 100.6
2016-08 100.0
2016-07 100.2
2016-06 99.0
2016-05 100.6
2016-04 98.3
2016-03 99.4
2016-02 99.8
2016-01 99.9
2015-12 97.0
2015-11 99.2
2015-10 99.4
2015-09 97.5
2015-08 98.5
2015-07 97.4
2015-06 96.8
2015-05 95.4
2015-04 93.9
2015-03 92.4
2015-02 91.5
2015-01 91.2
2014-12 91.4
2014-11 91.3
2014-10 91.4
2014-09 91.1
2014-08 91.7
2014-07 92.6
2014-06 92.3
2014-05 92.3
2014-04 93.3
2014-03 93.0
2014-02 92.2
2014-01 92.4
2013-12 91.0
2013-11 92.4
2013-10 91.8
2013-09 92.3
2013-08 88.7
2013-07 86.8
2013-06 86.3
2013-05 85.1
2013-04 83.6
2013-03 84.5
2013-02 87.3
2013-01 88.5
2012-12 87.4
2012-11 85.8
2012-10 86.5
2012-09 87.6
2012-08 87.8
2012-07 89.9
2012-06 90.3
2012-05 92.2
2012-04 95.8
2012-03 93.7
2012-02 92.4
2012-01 93.0
2011-12 95.0
2011-11 95.3
2011-10 97.4
2011-09 98.5
2011-08 100.6
2011-07 105.0
2011-06 107.0
2011-05 107.5
2011-04 108.8
2011-03 110.2
2011-02 109.0
2011-01 106.9
2010-12 106.6
2010-11 104.6
2010-10 102.7
2010-09 101.5
2010-08 100.5
2010-07 99.0
2010-06 98.2
2010-05 99.2
2010-04 97.6
2010-03 94.4
2010-02 94.2
2010-01 94.0
2009-12 92.6
2009-11 92.1
2009-10 90.7
2009-09 87.6
2009-08 84.4
2009-07 81.9
2009-06 78.3
2009-05 73.7
2009-04 69.7
2009-03 69.6
2009-02 74.6
2009-01 75.8
2008-12 78.3
2008-11 81.4
2008-10 85.3
2008-09 93.7
2008-08 95.7
2008-07 97.1
2008-06 101.4
2008-05 104.5
2008-04 106.9
2008-03 108.5
2008-02 108.4
2008-01 110.2
2007-12 108.8
2007-11 110.0
2007-10 109.8
2007-09 111.2
2007-08 111.9
2007-07 112.8
2007-06 112.2
2007-05 112.5
2007-04 112.7
2007-03 113.0
2007-02 112.0
2007-01 110.6
2006-12 111.2
2006-11 112.8
2006-10 110.6
2006-09 110.4
2006-08 110.2
2006-07 110.1
2006-06 109.0
2006-05 110.3
2006-04 107.7
2006-03 107.4
2006-02 106.1
2006-01 108.5
2005-12 106.6
2005-11 106.3
2005-10 108.2
2005-09 106.8
2005-08 107.2
2005-07 107.5
2005-06 108.2
2005-05 105.9
2005-04 107.8
2005-03 108.1
2005-02 106.1
2005-01 106.3

Business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

The business managers are again less optimistic about their personal activity prospects

In April 2023, the business managers in services are less optimistic than in the previous month about their activity prospects: the related balance of opinion has decreased again and has moved just below its long-term average. The balance of opinion on expected demand has also fallen back sharply and has also moved below its average. The one on the general business outlook for the sector is stable, above its average level. At the same time, the balance on economic uncertainty felt has increased sharply.

The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has decreased slightly but remains just above its average.

The balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices is virtually stable, at a very high level. The one about the expected change in selling prices has rebounded slightly after two months of decline and remains well above its long-term average.

Expected prices in services

Expected prices in services
Expected prices
2023-04 14.6
2023-03 13.7
2023-02 17.0
2023-01 19.8
2022-12 16.2
2022-11 12.9
2022-10 10.5
2022-09 8.8
2022-08 10.4
2022-07 12.4
2022-06 11.0
2022-05 10.5
2022-04 12.1
2022-03 7.3
2022-02 9.0
2022-01 8.0
2021-12 5.5
2021-11 6.6
2021-10 2.9
2021-09 1.8
2021-08 4.0
2021-07 5.2
2021-06 0.8
2021-05 -0.6
2021-04 -8.1
2021-03 -8.0
2021-02 -10.9
2021-01 -9.4
2020-12 -8.1
2020-11 -12.7
2020-10 -10.3
2020-09 -4.8
2020-08 -5.4
2020-07 -7.0
2020-06 -12.3
2020-05 -22.6
2020-04 -22.6
2020-03 -3.7
2020-02 0.7
2020-01 0.3
2019-12 0.1
2019-11 -0.2
2019-10 0.7
2019-09 -2.2
2019-08 -0.9
2019-07 1.7
2019-06 0.4
2019-05 -1.9
2019-04 -2.1
2019-03 -1.3
2019-02 -2.5
2019-01 -2.2
2018-12 -0.2
2018-11 -2.4
2018-10 -3.6
2018-09 -2.8
2018-08 -0.3
2018-07 -5.3
2018-06 -4.6
2018-05 -2.3
2018-04 -2.7
2018-03 -3.5
2018-02 -3.9
2018-01 -2.5
2017-12 -3.7
2017-11 -2.6
2017-10 -2.8
2017-09 -2.8
2017-08 -5.2
2017-07 -5.7
2017-06 -4.0
2017-05 -5.3
2017-04 -5.1
2017-03 -3.8
2017-02 -3.9
2017-01 -6.5
2016-12 -5.5
2016-11 -7.7
2016-10 -6.8
2016-09 -4.8
2016-08 -5.2
2016-07 -4.7
2016-06 -6.8
2016-05 -6.2
2016-04 -4.9
2016-03 -5.1
2016-02 -4.6
2016-01 -8.5
2015-12 -8.8
2015-11 -5.8
2015-10 -5.9
2015-09 -7.5
2015-08 -6.4
2015-07 -6.9
2015-06 -6.1
2015-05 -6.2
2015-04 -7.8
2015-03 -9.8
2015-02 -9.7
2015-01 -11.4
2014-12 -11.0
2014-11 -10.3
2014-10 -9.5
2014-09 -10.6
2014-08 -9.0
2014-07 -9.2
2014-06 -9.3
2014-05 -9.9
2014-04 -9.6
2014-03 -10.8
2014-02 -11.0
2014-01 -8.4
2013-12 -9.4
2013-11 -8.4
2013-10 -10.1
2013-09 -10.4
2013-08 -10.7
2013-07 -12.3
2013-06 -12.0
2013-05 -12.2
2013-04 -12.2
2013-03 -12.0
2013-02 -11.9
2013-01 -9.8
2012-12 -9.2
2012-11 -9.5
2012-10 -11.0
2012-09 -7.6
2012-08 -7.8
2012-07 -4.3
2012-06 -6.0
2012-05 -5.6
2012-04 -4.2
2012-03 -0.7
2012-02 -3.4
2012-01 0.5
2011-12 -2.3
2011-11 -4.3
2011-10 -3.0
2011-09 -1.6
2011-08 -1.5
2011-07 -0.3
2011-06 0.5
2011-05 5.1
2011-04 2.4
2011-03 3.5
2011-02 3.3
2011-01 -0.1
2010-12 0.0
2010-11 -1.1
2010-10 -0.9
2010-09 -3.1
2010-08 -3.8
2010-07 -7.7
2010-06 -5.4
2010-05 -5.7
2010-04 -7.8
2010-03 -7.5
2010-02 -9.0
2010-01 -8.5
2009-12 -10.1
2009-11 -10.1
2009-10 -9.4
2009-09 -12.4
2009-08 -14.4
2009-07 -18.5
2009-06 -15.4
2009-05 -17.8
2009-04 -17.7
2009-03 -17.1
2009-02 -13.1
2009-01 -13.1
2008-12 -13.8
2008-11 -9.6
2008-10 -2.7
2008-09 0.3
2008-08 1.5
2008-07 3.4
2008-06 3.3
2008-05 3.4
2008-04 3.9
2008-03 2.6
2008-02 2.1
2008-01 2.2
2007-12 3.0
2007-11 2.8
2007-10 1.3
2007-09 2.3
2007-08 3.2
2007-07 3.4
2007-06 2.1
2007-05 2.9
2007-04 2.2
2007-03 1.5
2007-02 1.1
2007-01 1.8

Expected prices in services

  • Source: INSEE

Concerning employment, the balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months has rebounded and has got back above its average. The one on the expected workforce size has fallen back sharply but remains above its average.

Besides, 56% of the business managers have reported difficulties in recruitment. This share remains high, but has decreased since its peak (62%) in October 2022.

The quarterly balance of opinion on the expected investments for the next three months has fallen back sharply and has moved below its average.

Among the obstacles preventing them from increasing their activity, as many business managers as in January have reported difficulties of demand only. Nevertheless, this proportion remains well below its long-term average. Slightly fewer business managers compared to January have reported difficulties of supply only, a proportion above its average.

The quarterly balance on the cash position has fallen back compared to January and has got closer to its average.

Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Average* Jan. 2023 Feb. 2023 Mar. 2023 Apr. 2023
Composite indicator 100 105 106 105 103
General outlook -7 -5 -3 -2 -2
Past activity 2 10 11 4 3
Expected activity 2 4 7 2 1
Expected demand 0 0 1 3 -2
Past selling prices -3 15 17 17 16
Expected selling prices -2 20 17 14 15
Past employment 2 6 4 1 3
Past employment except temporary work agencies 0 2 6 5 5
Expected employment 2 13 10 12 5
Expected employment except temporary work agencies 0 8 7 7 4
Cash position -11 -4 -7
Difficulties of supply and demand
difficulties of supply and demand (in %) 10 5 6
difficulties of supply only (in %) 24 32 30
difficulties of demand only (in %) 29 14 14
Difficulties in recruitment (in %) 31 59 56
Expected investments 3 13 0
Economic uncertainty felt** 12 11 10 11 17
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
  • ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

The business climate has evolved in mixed ways in the sub-sectors of services

In April 2023, in information-communication and in professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate has deteriorated. The forward-looking balances of opinion on expected demand and the general and personal outlook have decreased sharply.

In administrative and support services, the business climate has deteriorated slightly but remains above its average. In particular, the balance on expected activity has decreased again.

In real estate activities, the business climate indicator has increased slightly, above its average. In particular, the balance on the expected change in the workforce size has improved and has returned above its average.

In accommodation and food services, the business climate has improved slightly too and remains well above its average. In particular the balances of opinion on expected activity and the general business outlook have rebounded.

In road freight transport, the business climate has improved sharply and has returned above its long-term average. In particular, the balances on expected activity and expected demand have increased sharply.

Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Mean* Jan. 2023 Feb. 2023 Mar. 2023 Apr. 2023
Road freight transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 99 98 95 101
General outlook -18 -31 -23 -22 -15
Past activity -5 8 -10 -17 -11
Expected activity -6 -12 -17 -16 -3
Expected demand -8 -18 -18 -25 -15
Past employment -5 4 5 -3 0
Expected employment -6 -3 2 -5 0
Accommodation and food service activities (11%)
Composite indicator 100 106 111 110 111
General outlook -13 -6 5 4 6
Past activity -7 12 27 2 6
Expected activity -7 -2 7 -1 3
Expected demand -9 -4 -3 2 2
Past employment -5 -1 3 6 8
Expected employment -6 -1 4 8 7
Information and communication (26%)
Composite indicator 100 107 109 106 102
General outlook 0 3 5 5 3
Past activity 8 12 21 7 -1
Expected activity 9 12 17 10 1
Expected demand 9 11 8 8 -3
Past employment 6 26 28 21 20
Expected employment 10 24 21 22 16
Real estate activities (11%)
Composite indicator 100 106 102 101 102
General outlook -4 -2 -7 -9 -8
Past activity 7 0 8 10 8
Expected activity 6 9 6 1 0
Expected demand 2 -1 -1 2 0
Past employment 3 7 1 6 6
Expected employment 3 5 2 2 5
Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%)
Composite indicator 100 104 105 105 103
General outlook -8 -6 -4 -1 -3
Past activity -1 8 3 2 3
Expected activity -2 -1 0 -3 -4
Expected demand -5 -3 -2 1 -8
Past employment 1 1 3 2 3
Expected employment 1 8 5 7 6
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 103 107 106 105
General outlook -3 2 3 7 7
Past activity 5 12 5 4 7
Expected activity 5 7 15 12 9
Expected demand 3 2 9 8 9
Past employment 8 5 -3 -8 -8
Expected employment 7 19 13 19 -1
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

Revision

The business climate indicator in services of March 2023 has not been revised (after rounding).

For further information

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

The responses to this survey were collected between 27 March and 17 April 2023.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 25 May 2023 at 8:45 am.

Pour en savoir plus

The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.

For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.

The responses to this survey were collected between 27 March and 17 April 2023.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 25 May 2023 at 8:45 am.

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