Informations Rapides ·
28 March 2023 · n° 81
In March 2023, the business climate has deteriorated slightly in services Monthly survey of services - March 2023
According to the business managers surveyed in March 2023, the business climate has deteriorated slightly in services. At 105, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it has lost one point but remains above its long-term average (100). This deterioration is mainly due to the decline in the balances of opinion on past and expected activity.
According to the business managers surveyed in March 2023, the business climate has deteriorated slightly in services. At 105, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it has lost one point but remains above its long-term average (100). This deterioration is mainly due to the decline in the balances of opinion on past and expected activity.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2023-03 | 104.7 |
| 2023-02 | 106.2 |
| 2023-01 | 104.9 |
| 2022-12 | 103.9 |
| 2022-11 | 104.3 |
| 2022-10 | 105.4 |
| 2022-09 | 105.4 |
| 2022-08 | 106.5 |
| 2022-07 | 106.5 |
| 2022-06 | 107.6 |
| 2022-05 | 108.9 |
| 2022-04 | 108.0 |
| 2022-03 | 108.4 |
| 2022-02 | 111.8 |
| 2022-01 | 105.2 |
| 2021-12 | 107.0 |
| 2021-11 | 113.7 |
| 2021-10 | 112.6 |
| 2021-09 | 109.7 |
| 2021-08 | 108.2 |
| 2021-07 | 110.6 |
| 2021-06 | 111.6 |
| 2021-05 | 106.1 |
| 2021-04 | 91.1 |
| 2021-03 | 93.4 |
| 2021-02 | 87.9 |
| 2021-01 | 90.9 |
| 2020-12 | 89.5 |
| 2020-11 | 77.2 |
| 2020-10 | 88.2 |
| 2020-09 | 93.9 |
| 2020-08 | 93.1 |
| 2020-07 | 88.3 |
| 2020-06 | 77.4 |
| 2020-05 | 50.6 |
| 2020-04 | 40.3 |
| 2020-03 | 92.4 |
| 2020-02 | 105.7 |
| 2020-01 | 105.9 |
| 2019-12 | 106.2 |
| 2019-11 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 105.5 |
| 2019-09 | 105.4 |
| 2019-08 | 104.8 |
| 2019-07 | 104.8 |
| 2019-06 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 105.2 |
| 2019-04 | 105.2 |
| 2019-03 | 104.4 |
| 2019-02 | 103.4 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2018-12 | 101.8 |
| 2018-11 | 103.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.0 |
| 2018-09 | 104.2 |
| 2018-08 | 103.7 |
| 2018-07 | 104.2 |
| 2018-06 | 104.3 |
| 2018-05 | 103.9 |
| 2018-04 | 105.6 |
| 2018-03 | 106.5 |
| 2018-02 | 106.4 |
| 2018-01 | 107.3 |
| 2017-12 | 108.3 |
| 2017-11 | 107.1 |
| 2017-10 | 106.5 |
| 2017-09 | 106.3 |
| 2017-08 | 105.8 |
| 2017-07 | 103.7 |
| 2017-06 | 103.2 |
| 2017-05 | 102.4 |
| 2017-04 | 103.0 |
| 2017-03 | 103.0 |
| 2017-02 | 102.6 |
| 2017-01 | 101.5 |
| 2016-12 | 103.3 |
| 2016-11 | 100.7 |
| 2016-10 | 100.6 |
| 2016-09 | 100.6 |
| 2016-08 | 100.0 |
| 2016-07 | 100.2 |
| 2016-06 | 99.0 |
| 2016-05 | 100.6 |
| 2016-04 | 98.3 |
| 2016-03 | 99.4 |
| 2016-02 | 99.8 |
| 2016-01 | 99.9 |
| 2015-12 | 97.0 |
| 2015-11 | 99.2 |
| 2015-10 | 99.4 |
| 2015-09 | 97.5 |
| 2015-08 | 98.5 |
| 2015-07 | 97.4 |
| 2015-06 | 96.8 |
| 2015-05 | 95.4 |
| 2015-04 | 93.9 |
| 2015-03 | 92.4 |
| 2015-02 | 91.5 |
| 2015-01 | 91.2 |
| 2014-12 | 91.4 |
| 2014-11 | 91.3 |
| 2014-10 | 91.4 |
| 2014-09 | 91.1 |
| 2014-08 | 91.7 |
| 2014-07 | 92.6 |
| 2014-06 | 92.3 |
| 2014-05 | 92.3 |
| 2014-04 | 93.3 |
| 2014-03 | 93.1 |
| 2014-02 | 92.2 |
| 2014-01 | 92.4 |
| 2013-12 | 91.0 |
| 2013-11 | 92.5 |
| 2013-10 | 91.8 |
| 2013-09 | 92.3 |
| 2013-08 | 88.7 |
| 2013-07 | 86.8 |
| 2013-06 | 86.3 |
| 2013-05 | 85.1 |
| 2013-04 | 83.7 |
| 2013-03 | 84.5 |
| 2013-02 | 87.4 |
| 2013-01 | 88.5 |
| 2012-12 | 87.4 |
| 2012-11 | 85.9 |
| 2012-10 | 86.5 |
| 2012-09 | 87.6 |
| 2012-08 | 87.8 |
| 2012-07 | 89.9 |
| 2012-06 | 90.3 |
| 2012-05 | 92.3 |
| 2012-04 | 95.8 |
| 2012-03 | 93.8 |
| 2012-02 | 92.4 |
| 2012-01 | 93.0 |
| 2011-12 | 95.0 |
| 2011-11 | 95.3 |
| 2011-10 | 97.5 |
| 2011-09 | 98.5 |
| 2011-08 | 100.6 |
| 2011-07 | 105.0 |
| 2011-06 | 107.0 |
| 2011-05 | 107.5 |
| 2011-04 | 108.8 |
| 2011-03 | 110.2 |
| 2011-02 | 109.0 |
| 2011-01 | 106.8 |
| 2010-12 | 106.6 |
| 2010-11 | 104.6 |
| 2010-10 | 102.7 |
| 2010-09 | 101.5 |
| 2010-08 | 100.5 |
| 2010-07 | 99.0 |
| 2010-06 | 98.2 |
| 2010-05 | 99.2 |
| 2010-04 | 97.6 |
| 2010-03 | 94.4 |
| 2010-02 | 94.2 |
| 2010-01 | 94.0 |
| 2009-12 | 92.6 |
| 2009-11 | 92.1 |
| 2009-10 | 90.8 |
| 2009-09 | 87.7 |
| 2009-08 | 84.5 |
| 2009-07 | 81.9 |
| 2009-06 | 78.3 |
| 2009-05 | 73.7 |
| 2009-04 | 69.8 |
| 2009-03 | 69.6 |
| 2009-02 | 74.7 |
| 2009-01 | 75.8 |
| 2008-12 | 78.4 |
| 2008-11 | 81.4 |
| 2008-10 | 85.4 |
| 2008-09 | 93.8 |
| 2008-08 | 95.7 |
| 2008-07 | 97.1 |
| 2008-06 | 101.4 |
| 2008-05 | 104.5 |
| 2008-04 | 106.9 |
| 2008-03 | 108.5 |
| 2008-02 | 108.4 |
| 2008-01 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 108.8 |
| 2007-11 | 110.0 |
| 2007-10 | 109.8 |
| 2007-09 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 111.9 |
| 2007-07 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.2 |
| 2007-05 | 112.5 |
| 2007-04 | 112.6 |
| 2007-03 | 113.0 |
| 2007-02 | 112.0 |
| 2007-01 | 110.6 |
| 2006-12 | 111.2 |
| 2006-11 | 112.7 |
| 2006-10 | 110.6 |
| 2006-09 | 110.4 |
| 2006-08 | 110.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.1 |
| 2006-06 | 108.9 |
| 2006-05 | 110.2 |
| 2006-04 | 107.7 |
| 2006-03 | 107.4 |
| 2006-02 | 106.1 |
| 2006-01 | 108.5 |
| 2005-12 | 106.6 |
| 2005-11 | 106.3 |
| 2005-10 | 108.2 |
| 2005-09 | 106.8 |
| 2005-08 | 107.2 |
| 2005-07 | 107.5 |
| 2005-06 | 108.2 |
| 2005-05 | 105.9 |
| 2005-04 | 107.8 |
| 2005-03 | 108.1 |
| 2005-02 | 106.1 |
| 2005-01 | 106.3 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The business managers are less optimistic about their personal activity prospects
In March 2023, the business managers in services are less optimistic than in the previous month about their activity prospects: the related balance of opinion has deteriorated but remains just above its long-term average. Conversely, the balances of opinion on the general business outlook for the sector and on the expected demand have both improved slightly and remain above their average level. At the same time, the balance on economic uncertainty felt is stable.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has fallen back sharply but remains just above its average.
The balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices is stable, at its highest level since the beginning of the series (1988). The one about the expected change in selling prices has decreased sharply again but remains well above its long-term average.
tableauExpected prices in services
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2023-03 | 14.4 |
| 2023-02 | 17.0 |
| 2023-01 | 19.8 |
| 2022-12 | 16.2 |
| 2022-11 | 12.9 |
| 2022-10 | 10.5 |
| 2022-09 | 8.8 |
| 2022-08 | 10.4 |
| 2022-07 | 12.4 |
| 2022-06 | 11.0 |
| 2022-05 | 10.5 |
| 2022-04 | 12.1 |
| 2022-03 | 7.3 |
| 2022-02 | 9.0 |
| 2022-01 | 8.0 |
| 2021-12 | 5.5 |
| 2021-11 | 6.6 |
| 2021-10 | 2.9 |
| 2021-09 | 1.8 |
| 2021-08 | 4.0 |
| 2021-07 | 5.2 |
| 2021-06 | 0.8 |
| 2021-05 | -0.6 |
| 2021-04 | -8.1 |
| 2021-03 | -8.0 |
| 2021-02 | -10.9 |
| 2021-01 | -9.4 |
| 2020-12 | -8.1 |
| 2020-11 | -12.7 |
| 2020-10 | -10.3 |
| 2020-09 | -4.8 |
| 2020-08 | -5.4 |
| 2020-07 | -7.0 |
| 2020-06 | -12.3 |
| 2020-05 | -22.6 |
| 2020-04 | -22.6 |
| 2020-03 | -3.7 |
| 2020-02 | 0.7 |
| 2020-01 | 0.3 |
| 2019-12 | 0.1 |
| 2019-11 | -0.2 |
| 2019-10 | 0.7 |
| 2019-09 | -2.2 |
| 2019-08 | -0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 1.7 |
| 2019-06 | 0.4 |
| 2019-05 | -1.9 |
| 2019-04 | -2.1 |
| 2019-03 | -1.3 |
| 2019-02 | -2.5 |
| 2019-01 | -2.2 |
| 2018-12 | -0.2 |
| 2018-11 | -2.4 |
| 2018-10 | -3.6 |
| 2018-09 | -2.8 |
| 2018-08 | -0.3 |
| 2018-07 | -5.3 |
| 2018-06 | -4.6 |
| 2018-05 | -2.3 |
| 2018-04 | -2.7 |
| 2018-03 | -3.5 |
| 2018-02 | -3.9 |
| 2018-01 | -2.5 |
| 2017-12 | -3.7 |
| 2017-11 | -2.6 |
| 2017-10 | -2.8 |
| 2017-09 | -2.8 |
| 2017-08 | -5.2 |
| 2017-07 | -5.7 |
| 2017-06 | -4.0 |
| 2017-05 | -5.3 |
| 2017-04 | -5.1 |
| 2017-03 | -3.8 |
| 2017-02 | -3.9 |
| 2017-01 | -6.5 |
| 2016-12 | -5.5 |
| 2016-11 | -7.7 |
| 2016-10 | -6.8 |
| 2016-09 | -4.8 |
| 2016-08 | -5.2 |
| 2016-07 | -4.7 |
| 2016-06 | -6.8 |
| 2016-05 | -6.2 |
| 2016-04 | -4.9 |
| 2016-03 | -5.1 |
| 2016-02 | -4.6 |
| 2016-01 | -8.5 |
| 2015-12 | -8.8 |
| 2015-11 | -5.8 |
| 2015-10 | -5.9 |
| 2015-09 | -7.5 |
| 2015-08 | -6.4 |
| 2015-07 | -6.9 |
| 2015-06 | -6.1 |
| 2015-05 | -6.2 |
| 2015-04 | -7.8 |
| 2015-03 | -9.8 |
| 2015-02 | -9.7 |
| 2015-01 | -11.4 |
| 2014-12 | -11.0 |
| 2014-11 | -10.3 |
| 2014-10 | -9.5 |
| 2014-09 | -10.6 |
| 2014-08 | -9.0 |
| 2014-07 | -9.2 |
| 2014-06 | -9.3 |
| 2014-05 | -9.9 |
| 2014-04 | -9.6 |
| 2014-03 | -10.8 |
| 2014-02 | -11.0 |
| 2014-01 | -8.4 |
| 2013-12 | -9.4 |
| 2013-11 | -8.4 |
| 2013-10 | -10.1 |
| 2013-09 | -10.4 |
| 2013-08 | -10.7 |
| 2013-07 | -12.3 |
| 2013-06 | -12.0 |
| 2013-05 | -12.2 |
| 2013-04 | -12.2 |
| 2013-03 | -12.0 |
| 2013-02 | -11.9 |
| 2013-01 | -9.8 |
| 2012-12 | -9.2 |
| 2012-11 | -9.5 |
| 2012-10 | -11.0 |
| 2012-09 | -7.6 |
| 2012-08 | -7.8 |
| 2012-07 | -4.3 |
| 2012-06 | -6.0 |
| 2012-05 | -5.6 |
| 2012-04 | -4.2 |
| 2012-03 | -0.7 |
| 2012-02 | -3.4 |
| 2012-01 | 0.5 |
| 2011-12 | -2.3 |
| 2011-11 | -4.3 |
| 2011-10 | -3.0 |
| 2011-09 | -1.6 |
| 2011-08 | -1.5 |
| 2011-07 | -0.3 |
| 2011-06 | 0.5 |
| 2011-05 | 5.1 |
| 2011-04 | 2.4 |
| 2011-03 | 3.5 |
| 2011-02 | 3.3 |
| 2011-01 | -0.1 |
| 2010-12 | 0.0 |
| 2010-11 | -1.1 |
| 2010-10 | -0.9 |
| 2010-09 | -3.1 |
| 2010-08 | -3.8 |
| 2010-07 | -7.7 |
| 2010-06 | -5.4 |
| 2010-05 | -5.7 |
| 2010-04 | -7.8 |
| 2010-03 | -7.5 |
| 2010-02 | -9.0 |
| 2010-01 | -8.5 |
| 2009-12 | -10.1 |
| 2009-11 | -10.1 |
| 2009-10 | -9.4 |
| 2009-09 | -12.4 |
| 2009-08 | -14.4 |
| 2009-07 | -18.5 |
| 2009-06 | -15.4 |
| 2009-05 | -17.8 |
| 2009-04 | -17.7 |
| 2009-03 | -17.1 |
| 2009-02 | -13.1 |
| 2009-01 | -13.1 |
| 2008-12 | -13.8 |
| 2008-11 | -9.6 |
| 2008-10 | -2.7 |
| 2008-09 | 0.3 |
| 2008-08 | 1.5 |
| 2008-07 | 3.4 |
| 2008-06 | 3.3 |
| 2008-05 | 3.4 |
| 2008-04 | 3.9 |
| 2008-03 | 2.6 |
| 2008-02 | 2.1 |
| 2008-01 | 2.2 |
| 2007-12 | 3.0 |
| 2007-11 | 2.8 |
| 2007-10 | 1.3 |
| 2007-09 | 2.3 |
| 2007-08 | 3.2 |
| 2007-07 | 3.4 |
| 2007-06 | 2.1 |
| 2007-05 | 2.9 |
| 2007-04 | 2.2 |
| 2007-03 | 1.5 |
| 2007-02 | 1.1 |
| 2007-01 | 1.8 |
graphiqueExpected prices in services
- Source: INSEE
Concerning employment, the balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months has decreased for the third month in a row and has returned to its average. The one on the expected workforce size is stable above its own.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Dec. 2022 | Jan. 2023 | Feb. 2023 | Mar. 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 105 |
| General outlook | -7 | -3 | -5 | -3 | -2 |
| Past activity | 2 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 3 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| Expected demand | 0 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Past selling prices | -3 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 17 |
| Expected selling prices | -2 | 16 | 20 | 17 | 14 |
| Past employment | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Past employment except temporary work agencies | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| Expected employment except temporary work agencies | 0 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 12 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has deteriorated or remains stable in the sub-sectors of services
In March 2023, in accommodation and food services, the business climate has deteriorated but remains well above its average. In particular, the balances of opinion on past and expected activity have decreased sharply.
In information-communication, the business climate has also deteriorated and remains above its average. In particular, the balance on past activity has decreased very sharply.
In road freight transport, the business climate has deteriorated again and has moved away from its long-term average. The balance of opinion on expected demand has decreased sharply.
Eventually, in real estate activities, professional, scientific and technical activities and administrative and support services, the business climate is stable or virtually stable, above its average.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Dec. 2022 | Jan. 2023 | Feb. 2023 | Mar. 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 101 | 99 | 98 | 96 |
| Past activity | -5 | 5 | 8 | -10 | -15 |
| Expected activity | -6 | -8 | -12 | -17 | -16 |
| Expected demand | -8 | -18 | -18 | -18 | -24 |
| Past employment | -5 | -1 | 4 | 5 | -3 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 5 | -3 | 2 | -6 |
| General outlook | -18 | -20 | -31 | -23 | -21 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 106 | 112 | 109 |
| Past activity | -7 | 5 | 12 | 27 | 6 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -1 | -2 | 7 | -1 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -8 | -4 | -3 | -1 |
| Past employment | -5 | 10 | -1 | 3 | 12 |
| Expected employment | -6 | -2 | -1 | 4 | -3 |
| General outlook | -14 | -6 | -6 | 5 | 3 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 107 | 109 | 106 |
| Past activity | 8 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 7 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 10 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| Past employment | 6 | 25 | 26 | 28 | 20 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 12 | 24 | 21 | 21 |
| General outlook | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 101 | 106 | 102 | 102 |
| Past activity | 7 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 2 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 4 |
| Past employment | 3 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| General outlook | -4 | -9 | -2 | -7 | -9 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 104 | 105 | 105 |
| Past activity | -1 | -2 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
| Expected activity | -2 | -3 | -1 | 0 | -2 |
| Expected demand | -5 | -1 | -3 | -2 | 0 |
| Past employment | 1 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| General outlook | -8 | -3 | -6 | -4 | -1 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 103 | 107 | 106 |
| Past activity | 5 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 13 |
| Expected demand | 3 | -4 | 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Past employment | 8 | 13 | 5 | -3 | -7 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 15 | 19 | 13 | 22 |
| General outlook | -3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion. The “other services” sub-sector is not displayed due to its low weight.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator in services of February 2023 has not been revised (after rounding).
For further information
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey were collected between 24 February and 22 March 2023.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 20 April 2023 at 8:45 am.
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (in French) (pdf,193 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey were collected between 24 February and 22 March 2023.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 20 April 2023 at 8:45 am.