Informations Rapides ·
28 March 2023 · n° 80
In March 2023, the business climate has slightly rebounded in wholesale trade Bimonthly survey of wholesaling - March 2023
According to the business managers surveyed in March 2023, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has slightly improved. The composite indicator has gained two points compared to January and stands at 98. It has thus moved closer to its long-term average (100). This improvement is mainly due to the sharp rise in the balance of opinion regarding the volume of merchandise received from abroad and, to a lesser extent, by the rebound of the one related to the volume of past sales abroad.
- The opinion of wholesalers on the volume of received merchandise from abroad has improved
- The balance of opinion on ordering intentions is stable
- The balances of opinion on selling prices have retreated markedly again
- Wholesalers have cast a more favourable judgement on the recent evolution of their workforce
- Wholesalers still consider their stock levels to be well above normal
- Updates
- Further information
According to the business managers surveyed in March 2023, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has slightly improved. The composite indicator has gained two points compared to January and stands at 98. It has thus moved closer to its long-term average (100). This improvement is mainly due to the sharp rise in the balance of opinion regarding the volume of merchandise received from abroad and, to a lesser extent, by the rebound of the one related to the volume of past sales abroad.
tableauComposite indicator
| Composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2023-B2 | 98.2 |
| 2023-B1 | 96.1 |
| 2022-B6 | 101.7 |
| 2022-B5 | 96.6 |
| 2022-B4 | 101.6 |
| 2022-B3 | 100.6 |
| 2022-B2 | 104.7 |
| 2022-B1 | 114.9 |
| 2021-B6 | 114.2 |
| 2021-B5 | 109.3 |
| 2021-B4 | 112.8 |
| 2021-B3 | 109.4 |
| 2021-B2 | 98.6 |
| 2021-B1 | 95.3 |
| 2020-B6 | 87.3 |
| 2020-B5 | 90.8 |
| 2020-B4 | 78.6 |
| 2020-B3 | 65.9 |
| 2020-B2 | 96.6 |
| 2020-B1 | 103.8 |
| 2019-B6 | 106.0 |
| 2019-B5 | 105.9 |
| 2019-B4 | 105.8 |
| 2019-B3 | 106.8 |
| 2019-B2 | 105.2 |
| 2019-B1 | 99.7 |
| 2018-B6 | 103.3 |
| 2018-B5 | 103.3 |
| 2018-B4 | 102.1 |
| 2018-B3 | 103.8 |
| 2018-B2 | 109.1 |
| 2018-B1 | 107.1 |
| 2017-B6 | 110.5 |
| 2017-B5 | 108.3 |
| 2017-B4 | 109.5 |
| 2017-B3 | 104.1 |
| 2017-B2 | 102.7 |
| 2017-B1 | 103.9 |
| 2016-B6 | 97.7 |
| 2016-B5 | 97.3 |
| 2016-B4 | 102.9 |
| 2016-B3 | 101.6 |
| 2016-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2016-B1 | 102.1 |
| 2015-B6 | 101.3 |
| 2015-B5 | 99.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 101.8 |
| 2015-B3 | 100.7 |
| 2015-B2 | 96.1 |
| 2015-B1 | 95.6 |
| 2014-B6 | 95.3 |
| 2014-B5 | 90.9 |
| 2014-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2014-B3 | 97.7 |
| 2014-B2 | 97.8 |
| 2014-B1 | 96.9 |
| 2013-B6 | 97.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 96.7 |
| 2013-B4 | 87.3 |
| 2013-B3 | 87.7 |
| 2013-B2 | 88.1 |
| 2013-B1 | 88.8 |
| 2012-B6 | 89.0 |
| 2012-B5 | 90.8 |
| 2012-B4 | 94.7 |
| 2012-B3 | 92.8 |
| 2012-B2 | 99.2 |
| 2012-B1 | 95.3 |
| 2011-B6 | 95.9 |
| 2011-B5 | 100.0 |
| 2011-B4 | 105.6 |
| 2011-B3 | 107.1 |
| 2011-B2 | 108.1 |
| 2011-B1 | 105.8 |
| 2010-B6 | 104.4 |
| 2010-B5 | 104.9 |
| 2010-B4 | 100.4 |
| 2010-B3 | 94.4 |
| 2010-B2 | 84.9 |
| 2010-B1 | 84.9 |
| 2009-B6 | 77.6 |
| 2009-B5 | 76.3 |
| 2009-B4 | 70.6 |
| 2009-B3 | 68.5 |
| 2009-B2 | 67.2 |
| 2009-B1 | 79.3 |
| 2008-B6 | 84.0 |
| 2008-B5 | 94.4 |
| 2008-B4 | 96.8 |
| 2008-B3 | 101.5 |
| 2008-B2 | 106.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 107.3 |
| 2007-B6 | 108.5 |
| 2007-B5 | 111.4 |
| 2007-B4 | 107.2 |
| 2007-B3 | 110.2 |
| 2007-B2 | 111.6 |
| 2007-B1 | 107.9 |
| 2006-B6 | 110.2 |
| 2006-B5 | 106.7 |
| 2006-B4 | 107.4 |
| 2006-B3 | 101.9 |
| 2006-B2 | 98.9 |
| 2006-B1 | 103.6 |
| 2005-B6 | 99.5 |
| 2005-B5 | 94.8 |
| 2005-B4 | 96.0 |
| 2005-B3 | 92.3 |
| 2005-B2 | 97.3 |
| 2005-B1 | 100.6 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
The opinion of wholesalers on the volume of received merchandise from abroad has improved
In March 2023, the balance of opinion of wholesalers regarding the volume of merchandise received from abroad over the past two months has rebounded sharply and has moved closer to its average. It has increased sharply in the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products and live animals and in the one of food products and beverages. The balance of opinion related to received merchandise, whatever their origin, has slightly diminished for its part and has moved away from its average.
The balance of opinion of wholesalers on the volume of their past sales is stable and remains slightly below its average. The balance on the volume of past sales abroad has recovered and has moved closer to its own. It has mainly increased in the wholesale trade of food products and beverages, as well as in the one of “other industrial products”.
tableauPast activity (sales) in capital goods
| Capital goods in information and communication | Other industrial capital goods | |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-B2 | -26.4 | -10.9 |
| 2023-B1 | -35.6 | -7.5 |
| 2022-B6 | -25.6 | -10.0 |
| 2022-B5 | -23.3 | -17.3 |
| 2022-B4 | -6.1 | -13.4 |
| 2022-B3 | 5.3 | -11.3 |
| 2022-B2 | -3.6 | -11.5 |
| 2022-B1 | 6.6 | 11.5 |
| 2021-B6 | 10.6 | 2.9 |
| 2021-B5 | 14.2 | -0.6 |
| 2021-B4 | 29.8 | 14.5 |
| 2021-B3 | 32.7 | 13.4 |
| 2021-B2 | 19.6 | -3.0 |
| 2021-B1 | 0.3 | -19.8 |
| 2020-B6 | 9.3 | -31.2 |
| 2020-B5 | 10.3 | -28.6 |
| 2020-B4 | -54.4 | -56.0 |
| 2020-B3 | -54.9 | -84.6 |
| 2020-B2 | -6.6 | -14.1 |
| 2020-B1 | -18.1 | -9.2 |
| 2019-B6 | -6.7 | -4.8 |
| 2019-B5 | -1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2019-B4 | -18.1 | -4.1 |
| 2019-B3 | 11.6 | -1.3 |
| 2019-B2 | 18.2 | -3.4 |
| 2019-B1 | -20.3 | -15.2 |
| 2018-B6 | 4.4 | -9.4 |
| 2018-B5 | 11.7 | -7.2 |
| 2018-B4 | 10.1 | -7.8 |
| 2018-B3 | 2.1 | -5.2 |
| 2018-B2 | -0.6 | 1.3 |
| 2018-B1 | -12.0 | 8.9 |
| 2017-B6 | -8.4 | 8.9 |
| 2017-B5 | -2.9 | -2.2 |
| 2017-B4 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2017-B3 | -6.2 | -7.0 |
| 2017-B2 | -7.5 | -12.4 |
| 2017-B1 | -7.3 | -15.4 |
| 2016-B6 | -12.9 | -19.2 |
| 2016-B5 | -5.1 | -24.9 |
| 2016-B4 | 1.6 | -16.9 |
| 2016-B3 | -10.1 | -17.6 |
| 2016-B2 | -1.4 | -21.6 |
| 2016-B1 | 1.4 | -17.7 |
| 2015-B6 | -9.1 | -27.8 |
| 2015-B5 | -4.8 | -25.0 |
| 2015-B4 | -1.6 | -22.3 |
| 2015-B3 | 4.3 | -28.8 |
| 2015-B2 | -8.9 | -33.1 |
| 2015-B1 | -11.6 | -35.2 |
| 2014-B6 | -10.4 | -38.5 |
| 2014-B5 | -25.3 | -41.2 |
| 2014-B4 | -7.5 | -38.8 |
| 2014-B3 | -14.1 | -27.4 |
| 2014-B2 | -15.8 | -20.1 |
| 2014-B1 | -27.5 | -27.4 |
| 2013-B6 | -12.7 | -25.7 |
| 2013-B5 | -18.0 | -30.9 |
| 2013-B4 | -37.0 | -38.3 |
| 2013-B3 | -17.6 | -38.0 |
| 2013-B2 | -13.7 | -33.8 |
| 2013-B1 | -36.3 | -41.1 |
| 2012-B6 | -31.0 | -36.8 |
| 2012-B5 | -17.4 | -28.3 |
| 2012-B4 | -20.7 | -30.0 |
| 2012-B3 | -23.3 | -28.9 |
| 2012-B2 | -17.2 | -15.6 |
| 2012-B1 | -11.5 | -11.7 |
| 2011-B6 | -28.6 | -12.8 |
| 2011-B5 | -7.8 | -0.1 |
| 2011-B4 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 2011-B3 | 1.2 | 6.5 |
| 2011-B2 | -12.4 | 1.7 |
| 2011-B1 | 15.3 | -16.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 19.0 | -18.1 |
| 2010-B5 | 18.6 | -16.2 |
| 2010-B4 | 31.2 | -32.9 |
| 2010-B3 | 0.3 | -40.4 |
| 2010-B2 | -37.2 | -57.6 |
| 2010-B1 | -12.8 | -56.3 |
| 2009-B6 | -21.4 | -68.1 |
| 2009-B5 | -57.6 | -70.2 |
| 2009-B4 | -61.3 | -70.0 |
| 2009-B3 | -63.2 | -67.9 |
| 2009-B2 | -61.5 | -74.3 |
| 2009-B1 | -32.1 | -56.6 |
| 2008-B6 | -16.2 | -35.3 |
| 2008-B5 | -11.9 | -20.9 |
| 2008-B4 | -5.4 | -14.3 |
| 2008-B3 | 3.5 | -3.6 |
| 2008-B2 | -6.6 | 4.4 |
| 2008-B1 | -23.1 | 5.5 |
graphiquePast activity (sales) in capital goods
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
The balance of opinion on ordering intentions is stable
In March 2023, the balance of opinion of wholesalers on their ordering intentions is stable, at its average level. The one related to ordering intentions from abroad has rebounded and has moved above its own.
The balance of opinion on the general business outlook has also rebounded, but remains far below its long-term average.
The balances of opinion on selling prices have retreated markedly again
The balances of opinion on the past and expected changes in selling prices of wholesalers have declined markedly again. However, both balances remain well above their respective averages.
tableauExpected prices in wholesale trade
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2023-B2 | 29.4 |
| 2023-B1 | 32.3 |
| 2022-B6 | 41.4 |
| 2022-B5 | 40.2 |
| 2022-B4 | 44.4 |
| 2022-B3 | 55.0 |
| 2022-B2 | 50.4 |
| 2022-B1 | 34.1 |
| 2021-B6 | 38.3 |
| 2021-B5 | 30.6 |
| 2021-B4 | 32.1 |
| 2021-B3 | 29.2 |
| 2021-B2 | 20.3 |
| 2021-B1 | 7.5 |
| 2020-B6 | -4.9 |
| 2020-B5 | 1.6 |
| 2020-B4 | 1.2 |
| 2020-B3 | -1.2 |
| 2020-B2 | 0.3 |
| 2020-B1 | 6.9 |
| 2019-B6 | 7.1 |
| 2019-B5 | 1.2 |
| 2019-B4 | 2.2 |
| 2019-B3 | 4.2 |
| 2019-B2 | 4.9 |
| 2019-B1 | 6.6 |
| 2018-B6 | 9.6 |
| 2018-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2018-B4 | 8.3 |
| 2018-B3 | 7.5 |
| 2018-B2 | 13.5 |
| 2018-B1 | 8.6 |
| 2017-B6 | 11.8 |
| 2017-B5 | 2.0 |
| 2017-B4 | 3.9 |
| 2017-B3 | 4.0 |
| 2017-B2 | 5.8 |
| 2017-B1 | 10.7 |
| 2016-B6 | 2.4 |
| 2016-B5 | -2.8 |
| 2016-B4 | 0.1 |
| 2016-B3 | -0.9 |
| 2016-B2 | -3.4 |
| 2016-B1 | -5.7 |
| 2015-B6 | -1.4 |
| 2015-B5 | -8.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 2.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2015-B2 | -0.4 |
| 2015-B1 | -6.7 |
| 2014-B6 | -10.7 |
| 2014-B5 | -8.7 |
| 2014-B4 | -4.2 |
| 2014-B3 | -0.8 |
| 2014-B2 | 2.1 |
| 2014-B1 | 6.0 |
| 2013-B6 | 0.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 0.3 |
| 2013-B4 | -3.9 |
| 2013-B3 | -3.2 |
| 2013-B2 | -2.2 |
| 2013-B1 | 5.1 |
| 2012-B6 | 5.5 |
| 2012-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2012-B4 | 8.9 |
| 2012-B3 | 6.0 |
| 2012-B2 | 11.7 |
| 2012-B1 | 11.0 |
| 2011-B6 | 14.2 |
| 2011-B5 | 6.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 11.9 |
| 2011-B3 | 19.8 |
| 2011-B2 | 24.6 |
| 2011-B1 | 22.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 8.7 |
| 2010-B5 | 11.5 |
| 2010-B4 | 8.6 |
| 2010-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2010-B2 | 0.2 |
| 2010-B1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-B6 | -7.2 |
| 2009-B5 | -6.7 |
| 2009-B4 | -11.9 |
| 2009-B3 | -7.5 |
| 2009-B2 | -12.5 |
| 2009-B1 | -5.5 |
| 2008-B6 | 0.4 |
| 2008-B5 | 10.3 |
| 2008-B4 | 18.8 |
| 2008-B3 | 15.3 |
| 2008-B2 | 18.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 26.9 |
| 2007-B6 | 23.9 |
| 2007-B5 | 20.9 |
| 2007-B4 | 16.2 |
| 2007-B3 | 14.1 |
| 2007-B2 | 10.1 |
| 2007-B1 | 10.2 |
graphiqueExpected prices in wholesale trade
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
Wholesalers have cast a more favourable judgement on the recent evolution of their workforce
The balance of opinion on the change in workforce size over the last two months has increased again and lies above its average level. The one on the expected change in workforce size is virtually stable and remains far higher than its average.
Wholesalers still consider their stock levels to be well above normal
The balance of opinion on the level of inventories has very slightly increased and has reached its highest level since 1989. It has increased in particular in the wholesale trade of food products and beverages as well as in the one of “other industrial products”. It remains very high in the one of information and communication equipment especially.
Finally, the balance related to the cash position has slightly diminished, and remains slightly below its average.
Updates
The business climate in wholesale trade in January 2023 has been revised upwards by one point (after rounding). This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from companies.
tableauEconomic outlook in the wholesale trade sector
| Ave. (1) | Sept. 22 | Nov. 22 | Jan. 23 | Mar. 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climate | 100 | 97 | 102 | 96 | 98 |
| General business outlook | -23 | -32 | -31 | -35 | -30 |
| Sales | -14 | -14 | -7 | -16 | -16 |
| export sales | -15 | -19 | -15 | -19 | -16 |
| Received merchandise | -9 | -13 | -7 | -13 | -14 |
| received from abroad | -10 | -20 | -11 | -18 | -13 |
| Ordering intentions | -15 | -12 | -11 | -15 | -15 |
| ordering from abroad | -15 | -14 | -15 | -18 | -14 |
| Shipments abroad | -15 | -15 | -17 | -20 | -16 |
| Stocks | 8 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 17 |
| Past workforce | -1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| Expected workforce | -2 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| Cash position | -9 | -9 | -9 | -8 | -7 |
| Past selling prices | 8 | 36 | 46 | 34 | 28 |
| Expected selling prices | 15 | 40 | 41 | 32 | 29 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source : INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
tableauBalances of opinion by sub-sector in wholesale trade
| Ave. (1) | Sept. 22 | Nov. 22 | Jan. 23 | Mar. 23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | -13 | -7 | -1 | -20 | -21 |
| Export sales | -16 | -24 | -23 | -16 | -23 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -10 | -41 | -25 | -36 | -28 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -10 | -14 | -19 | -24 |
| Current stocks | 5 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 2 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | -15 | -10 | -16 | -26 | -14 |
| Export sales | -12 | -28 | -26 | -39 | -20 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -14 | -21 | -31 | -4 |
| Ordering intentions | -11 | -18 | -15 | -16 | -15 |
| Current stocks | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 | 11 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | -10 | -12 | -3 | -1 | -9 |
| Export sales | -11 | -9 | -3 | -8 | -14 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | -9 | -6 | -15 | -22 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -8 | -3 | -8 | -11 |
| Current stocks | 12 | 16 | 11 | 22 | 21 |
| Information and communication equipment | |||||
| Sales | -8 | -23 | -26 | -36 | -26 |
| Export sales | -12 | -48 | -49 | -24 | -27 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -7 | -46 | -45 | -30 | -33 |
| Ordering intentions | -10 | -21 | -20 | -22 | -23 |
| Current stocks | 8 | 42 | 43 | 35 | 24 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | -16 | -17 | -10 | -7 | -11 |
| Export sales | -21 | -17 | -14 | -19 | -6 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -22 | -10 | -9 | -6 |
| Ordering intentions | -21 | -10 | -16 | -24 | -15 |
| Current stocks | 11 | 22 | 27 | 20 | 22 |
| Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | -17 | -23 | -1 | -14 | -22 |
| Export sales | -18 | -24 | -14 | -12 | -14 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -12 | -33 | -7 | -6 | -7 |
| Ordering intentions | -18 | -13 | -9 | -12 | -15 |
| Current stocks | 6 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
- (1) Average since July 1979.
- Source : INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
Further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.
Since the May 2020 survey, the way of correcting missing answers has been modified. The usual method was to fill them in by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Answers to this survey have been gathered between 24 February and 22 March 2023.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 25 May 2023 at 8:45 am.
Documentation
Methodology (pdf, 20 Ko )
Pour en savoir plus
Time series : Wholesale trade