Informations Rapides ·
24 January 2023 · n° 19
In January 2023, the business climate has deteriorated sharply in wholesale trade Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - January 2023
According to the business managers surveyed in January 2023, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated sharply. The composite indicator has lost seven points compared to November 2022 and stands at 95. It has thus moved back below its long-term average (100). This deterioration is mainly due to the sharp decline in the balances of opinion regarding the volume of merchandise received from abroad and the volume of past sales.
- The opinion of wholesalers on the volume of received merchandise, especially from abroad, has deteriorated
- The balances of opinion on ordering intentions have decreased
- The balances of opinion on selling prices have retreated very sharply
- Wholesalers have cast a slightly less favourable judgement on the recent evolution of their workforce
- Wholesalers keep considering their stock levels to be well above normal
- Updates
- For further information
According to the business managers surveyed in January 2023, the bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated sharply. The composite indicator has lost seven points compared to November 2022 and stands at 95. It has thus moved back below its long-term average (100). This deterioration is mainly due to the sharp decline in the balances of opinion regarding the volume of merchandise received from abroad and the volume of past sales.
tableauComposite indicator
| Composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2023-B1 | 95.0 |
| 2022-B6 | 101.7 |
| 2022-B5 | 96.6 |
| 2022-B4 | 101.6 |
| 2022-B3 | 100.6 |
| 2022-B2 | 104.7 |
| 2022-B1 | 114.9 |
| 2021-B6 | 114.1 |
| 2021-B5 | 109.2 |
| 2021-B4 | 112.8 |
| 2021-B3 | 109.4 |
| 2021-B2 | 98.6 |
| 2021-B1 | 95.3 |
| 2020-B6 | 87.4 |
| 2020-B5 | 90.8 |
| 2020-B4 | 78.7 |
| 2020-B3 | 66.0 |
| 2020-B2 | 96.6 |
| 2020-B1 | 103.8 |
| 2019-B6 | 106.0 |
| 2019-B5 | 105.9 |
| 2019-B4 | 105.8 |
| 2019-B3 | 106.8 |
| 2019-B2 | 105.2 |
| 2019-B1 | 99.7 |
| 2018-B6 | 103.3 |
| 2018-B5 | 103.3 |
| 2018-B4 | 102.1 |
| 2018-B3 | 103.8 |
| 2018-B2 | 109.1 |
| 2018-B1 | 107.1 |
| 2017-B6 | 110.5 |
| 2017-B5 | 108.3 |
| 2017-B4 | 109.5 |
| 2017-B3 | 104.1 |
| 2017-B2 | 102.7 |
| 2017-B1 | 103.9 |
| 2016-B6 | 97.7 |
| 2016-B5 | 97.3 |
| 2016-B4 | 102.9 |
| 2016-B3 | 101.6 |
| 2016-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2016-B1 | 102.1 |
| 2015-B6 | 101.3 |
| 2015-B5 | 99.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 101.8 |
| 2015-B3 | 100.7 |
| 2015-B2 | 96.1 |
| 2015-B1 | 95.6 |
| 2014-B6 | 95.3 |
| 2014-B5 | 90.9 |
| 2014-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2014-B3 | 97.7 |
| 2014-B2 | 97.8 |
| 2014-B1 | 96.9 |
| 2013-B6 | 97.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 96.8 |
| 2013-B4 | 87.3 |
| 2013-B3 | 87.8 |
| 2013-B2 | 88.2 |
| 2013-B1 | 88.9 |
| 2012-B6 | 89.0 |
| 2012-B5 | 90.8 |
| 2012-B4 | 94.7 |
| 2012-B3 | 92.8 |
| 2012-B2 | 99.2 |
| 2012-B1 | 95.3 |
| 2011-B6 | 95.9 |
| 2011-B5 | 100.0 |
| 2011-B4 | 105.6 |
| 2011-B3 | 107.1 |
| 2011-B2 | 108.1 |
| 2011-B1 | 105.8 |
| 2010-B6 | 104.4 |
| 2010-B5 | 104.9 |
| 2010-B4 | 100.4 |
| 2010-B3 | 94.4 |
| 2010-B2 | 84.9 |
| 2010-B1 | 84.9 |
| 2009-B6 | 77.7 |
| 2009-B5 | 76.3 |
| 2009-B4 | 70.6 |
| 2009-B3 | 68.6 |
| 2009-B2 | 67.3 |
| 2009-B1 | 79.3 |
| 2008-B6 | 84.0 |
| 2008-B5 | 94.5 |
| 2008-B4 | 96.8 |
| 2008-B3 | 101.5 |
| 2008-B2 | 106.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 107.3 |
| 2007-B6 | 108.5 |
| 2007-B5 | 111.4 |
| 2007-B4 | 107.2 |
| 2007-B3 | 110.1 |
| 2007-B2 | 111.6 |
| 2007-B1 | 107.9 |
| 2006-B6 | 110.1 |
| 2006-B5 | 106.7 |
| 2006-B4 | 107.4 |
| 2006-B3 | 101.9 |
| 2006-B2 | 98.9 |
| 2006-B1 | 103.6 |
| 2005-B6 | 99.5 |
| 2005-B5 | 94.8 |
| 2005-B4 | 96.0 |
| 2005-B3 | 92.3 |
| 2005-B2 | 97.3 |
| 2005-B1 | 100.5 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
The opinion of wholesalers on the volume of received merchandise, especially from abroad, has deteriorated
In January 2023, the balance of opinion of wholesalers regarding the volume of merchandise received over the past two months has retreated sharply and has moved below its average. The balance of opinion specific to the merchandise received from abroad has also diminished sharply and has moved below its average level. It has mainly decreased in the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products and live animals, of food products and beverages, as well as of household goods.
The balance of opinion of wholesalers on the volume of their past sales has retreated markedly and has moved back below its average. This balance has more specifically decreased in the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products, of food products and beverages, as well as of information and communication equipment. The balance on the volume of sales abroad has also retreated and lies well below its average level. It has declined in all sub-sectors, except in the wholesale trade of capital goods in information and communication.
tableauPast activity (sales) in capital goods
| Capital goods in information and communication | Other industrial capital goods | |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-B1 | -40.4 | -5.7 |
| 2022-B6 | -25.6 | -10.0 |
| 2022-B5 | -23.3 | -17.3 |
| 2022-B4 | -6.1 | -13.4 |
| 2022-B3 | 5.3 | -11.3 |
| 2022-B2 | -3.6 | -11.5 |
| 2022-B1 | 6.6 | 11.5 |
| 2021-B6 | 10.6 | 2.9 |
| 2021-B5 | 14.2 | -0.6 |
| 2021-B4 | 29.8 | 14.5 |
| 2021-B3 | 32.7 | 13.4 |
| 2021-B2 | 19.6 | -3.0 |
| 2021-B1 | 0.3 | -19.8 |
| 2020-B6 | 9.3 | -31.2 |
| 2020-B5 | 10.3 | -28.6 |
| 2020-B4 | -54.4 | -56.0 |
| 2020-B3 | -54.9 | -84.6 |
| 2020-B2 | -6.6 | -14.1 |
| 2020-B1 | -18.1 | -9.2 |
| 2019-B6 | -6.7 | -4.8 |
| 2019-B5 | -1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2019-B4 | -18.1 | -4.1 |
| 2019-B3 | 11.6 | -1.3 |
| 2019-B2 | 18.2 | -3.4 |
| 2019-B1 | -20.3 | -15.2 |
| 2018-B6 | 4.4 | -9.4 |
| 2018-B5 | 11.7 | -7.2 |
| 2018-B4 | 10.1 | -7.8 |
| 2018-B3 | 2.1 | -5.2 |
| 2018-B2 | -0.6 | 1.3 |
| 2018-B1 | -12.0 | 8.9 |
| 2017-B6 | -8.4 | 8.9 |
| 2017-B5 | -2.9 | -2.2 |
| 2017-B4 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2017-B3 | -6.2 | -7.0 |
| 2017-B2 | -7.5 | -12.4 |
| 2017-B1 | -7.3 | -15.4 |
| 2016-B6 | -12.9 | -19.2 |
| 2016-B5 | -5.1 | -24.9 |
| 2016-B4 | 1.6 | -16.9 |
| 2016-B3 | -10.1 | -17.6 |
| 2016-B2 | -1.4 | -21.6 |
| 2016-B1 | 1.4 | -17.7 |
| 2015-B6 | -9.1 | -27.8 |
| 2015-B5 | -4.8 | -25.0 |
| 2015-B4 | -1.6 | -22.3 |
| 2015-B3 | 4.3 | -28.8 |
| 2015-B2 | -8.9 | -33.1 |
| 2015-B1 | -11.6 | -35.2 |
| 2014-B6 | -10.4 | -38.5 |
| 2014-B5 | -25.3 | -41.2 |
| 2014-B4 | -7.5 | -38.8 |
| 2014-B3 | -14.1 | -27.4 |
| 2014-B2 | -15.8 | -20.1 |
| 2014-B1 | -27.5 | -27.4 |
| 2013-B6 | -12.7 | -25.7 |
| 2013-B5 | -18.0 | -30.9 |
| 2013-B4 | -37.0 | -38.3 |
| 2013-B3 | -17.6 | -38.0 |
| 2013-B2 | -13.7 | -33.8 |
| 2013-B1 | -36.3 | -41.1 |
| 2012-B6 | -31.0 | -36.8 |
| 2012-B5 | -17.4 | -28.3 |
| 2012-B4 | -20.7 | -30.0 |
| 2012-B3 | -23.3 | -28.9 |
| 2012-B2 | -17.2 | -15.6 |
| 2012-B1 | -11.5 | -11.7 |
| 2011-B6 | -28.6 | -12.8 |
| 2011-B5 | -7.8 | -0.1 |
| 2011-B4 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 2011-B3 | 1.2 | 6.5 |
| 2011-B2 | -12.4 | 1.7 |
| 2011-B1 | 15.3 | -16.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 19.0 | -18.1 |
| 2010-B5 | 18.6 | -16.2 |
| 2010-B4 | 31.2 | -32.9 |
| 2010-B3 | 0.3 | -40.4 |
| 2010-B2 | -37.2 | -57.6 |
| 2010-B1 | -12.8 | -56.3 |
| 2009-B6 | -21.4 | -68.1 |
| 2009-B5 | -57.6 | -70.2 |
| 2009-B4 | -61.3 | -70.0 |
| 2009-B3 | -63.2 | -67.9 |
| 2009-B2 | -61.5 | -74.3 |
| 2009-B1 | -32.1 | -56.6 |
| 2008-B6 | -16.2 | -35.3 |
| 2008-B5 | -11.9 | -20.9 |
| 2008-B4 | -5.4 | -14.3 |
| 2008-B3 | 3.5 | -3.6 |
| 2008-B2 | -6.6 | 4.4 |
| 2008-B1 | -23.1 | 5.5 |
graphiquePast activity (sales) in capital goods
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
The balances of opinion on ordering intentions have decreased
In January 2023, the balance of opinion of wholesalers on their ordering intentions has retreated to its average level. The one related to ordering intentions from abroad has slightly fallen and has moved away from its own.
The balance of opinion on the general business outlook has retreated. It remains far below its long-term average.
The balances of opinion on selling prices have retreated very sharply
The balances of opinion on the past and expected changes in selling prices of wholesalers have retreated very sharply. Yet, both balances remain well above their respective averages.
tableauExpected prices in wholesale trade
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2023-B1 | 32.7 |
| 2022-B6 | 41.4 |
| 2022-B5 | 40.2 |
| 2022-B4 | 44.4 |
| 2022-B3 | 55.0 |
| 2022-B2 | 50.4 |
| 2022-B1 | 34.1 |
| 2021-B6 | 38.3 |
| 2021-B5 | 30.6 |
| 2021-B4 | 32.1 |
| 2021-B3 | 29.2 |
| 2021-B2 | 20.3 |
| 2021-B1 | 7.5 |
| 2020-B6 | -4.9 |
| 2020-B5 | 1.6 |
| 2020-B4 | 1.2 |
| 2020-B3 | -1.2 |
| 2020-B2 | 0.3 |
| 2020-B1 | 6.9 |
| 2019-B6 | 7.1 |
| 2019-B5 | 1.2 |
| 2019-B4 | 2.2 |
| 2019-B3 | 4.2 |
| 2019-B2 | 4.9 |
| 2019-B1 | 6.6 |
| 2018-B6 | 9.6 |
| 2018-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2018-B4 | 8.3 |
| 2018-B3 | 7.5 |
| 2018-B2 | 13.5 |
| 2018-B1 | 8.6 |
| 2017-B6 | 11.8 |
| 2017-B5 | 2.0 |
| 2017-B4 | 3.9 |
| 2017-B3 | 4.0 |
| 2017-B2 | 5.8 |
| 2017-B1 | 10.7 |
| 2016-B6 | 2.4 |
| 2016-B5 | -2.8 |
| 2016-B4 | 0.1 |
| 2016-B3 | -0.9 |
| 2016-B2 | -3.4 |
| 2016-B1 | -5.7 |
| 2015-B6 | -1.4 |
| 2015-B5 | -8.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 2.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2015-B2 | -0.4 |
| 2015-B1 | -6.7 |
| 2014-B6 | -10.7 |
| 2014-B5 | -8.7 |
| 2014-B4 | -4.2 |
| 2014-B3 | -0.8 |
| 2014-B2 | 2.1 |
| 2014-B1 | 6.0 |
| 2013-B6 | 0.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 0.3 |
| 2013-B4 | -3.9 |
| 2013-B3 | -3.2 |
| 2013-B2 | -2.2 |
| 2013-B1 | 5.1 |
| 2012-B6 | 5.5 |
| 2012-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2012-B4 | 8.9 |
| 2012-B3 | 6.0 |
| 2012-B2 | 11.7 |
| 2012-B1 | 11.0 |
| 2011-B6 | 14.2 |
| 2011-B5 | 6.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 11.9 |
| 2011-B3 | 19.8 |
| 2011-B2 | 24.6 |
| 2011-B1 | 22.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 8.7 |
| 2010-B5 | 11.5 |
| 2010-B4 | 8.6 |
| 2010-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2010-B2 | 0.2 |
| 2010-B1 | -3.9 |
| 2009-B6 | -7.2 |
| 2009-B5 | -6.7 |
| 2009-B4 | -11.9 |
| 2009-B3 | -7.5 |
| 2009-B2 | -12.5 |
| 2009-B1 | -5.5 |
| 2008-B6 | 0.4 |
| 2008-B5 | 10.3 |
| 2008-B4 | 18.8 |
| 2008-B3 | 15.3 |
| 2008-B2 | 18.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 26.9 |
| 2007-B6 | 23.9 |
| 2007-B5 | 20.9 |
| 2007-B4 | 16.2 |
| 2007-B3 | 14.1 |
| 2007-B2 | 10.1 |
| 2007-B1 | 10.2 |
graphiqueExpected prices in wholesale trade
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
Wholesalers have cast a slightly less favourable judgement on the recent evolution of their workforce
The balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last two months has declined again and has moved closer to its average level. The balance on the expected change in the workforce size has continued a decline that began in May 2022, but remains higher than its average.
Wholesalers keep considering their stock levels to be well above normal
The balance of opinion related to the level of inventories has rebounded markedly and has reached its highest level since 1989. It has increased in particular in the wholesale trade of household goods, and remains at very high levels in the one of information and communication equipment and that of “other industrial products” notably.
Finally, the balance related to the cash position remains stable, at its average level.
Updates
The business climate in wholesale trade of November 2022 has not been revised (after rounding).
tableauEconomic outlook in the wholesale trade sector
| Ave* | July-22 | Sept.-22 | Nov.-22 | Jan.-23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicators | 100 | 102 | 97 | 102 | 95 |
| General business outlook | -23 | -32 | -32 | -31 | -35 |
| Sales | -14 | -11 | -14 | -7 | -18 |
| sales abroad | -15 | -11 | -19 | -15 | -24 |
| Received merchandise | -9 | -10 | -13 | -7 | -14 |
| received from abroad | -10 | -12 | -20 | -11 | -18 |
| Ordering intentions | -15 | -8 | -12 | -11 | -15 |
| ordering from abroad | -15 | -14 | -14 | -15 | -17 |
| Shipments abroad | -15 | -13 | -15 | -17 | -22 |
| Stocks | 8 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 17 |
| Past workforce | -1 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Expected workforce | -2 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| Cash position | -9 | -9 | -9 | -9 | -9 |
| Past selling prices | 8 | 46 | 36 | 46 | 34 |
| Expected selling prices | 15 | 44 | 40 | 41 | 33 |
- *: average since July 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
tableauBalances of opinion by sub-sector in wholesale trade
| Ave* | July-22 | Sept.-22 | Nov.-22 | Jan.-23 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | -13 | -16 | -7 | -1 | -21 |
| Sales abroad | -16 | -21 | -24 | -23 | -28 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -10 | -30 | -41 | -25 | -43 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -13 | -10 | -14 | -19 |
| Current stock | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | -15 | -11 | -10 | -16 | -29 |
| Sales abroad | -12 | -26 | -28 | -26 | -44 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -19 | -14 | -21 | -28 |
| Ordering intentions | -11 | -10 | -18 | -15 | -16 |
| Current stocks | 4 | -1 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | -10 | -2 | -12 | -3 | -2 |
| Sales abroad | -11 | 4 | -9 | -3 | -8 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | -4 | -9 | -6 | -16 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -3 | -8 | -3 | -7 |
| Current stock | 12 | 13 | 16 | 11 | 23 |
| Information and communication equipment | |||||
| Sales | -8 | -6 | -23 | -26 | -40 |
| Sales abroad | -12 | -37 | -48 | -49 | -48 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -7 | -33 | -46 | -45 | -35 |
| Ordering intentions | -10 | -15 | -21 | -20 | -27 |
| Current stock | 8 | 32 | 42 | 43 | 39 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | -16 | -13 | -17 | -10 | -6 |
| Sales abroad | -21 | -25 | -17 | -14 | -18 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -21 | -22 | -10 | -4 |
| Ordering intentions | -21 | -9 | -10 | -16 | -20 |
| Current stock | 11 | 13 | 22 | 27 | 23 |
| Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | -17 | -16 | -23 | -1 | -18 |
| Sales abroad | -19 | 7 | -24 | -14 | -18 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -12 | 2 | -33 | -7 | -8 |
| Ordering intentions | -18 | -9 | -13 | -9 | -12 |
| Current stock | 6 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 17 |
- *: average since July 1979
- Source: INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
For further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.
Since the May 2020 survey, the way of correcting missing answers has been modified. The usual method was to fill them in by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Answers to this survey have been gathered between 28 December 2022 and 18 January 2023.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 28 March 2023 at 8:45 am.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of “above normal” or “increase” answers and the weighted percentage of “below normal” or “decrease” answers.
Since the May 2020 survey, the way of correcting missing answers has been modified. The usual method was to fill them in by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Answers to this survey have been gathered between 28 December 2022 and 18 January 2023.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 28 March 2023 at 8:45 am.
Time series : Wholesale trade