Informations Rapides · 15 December 2022 · n° 325
In December 2022, the business climate is stable in services Monthly survey of services - December 2022
According to the business managers surveyed in December 2022, the business climate is stable in services. At 104, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it remains above its long-term average (100).
According to the business managers surveyed in December 2022, the business climate is stable in services. At 104, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it remains above its long-term average (100).
tableau Business climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2022-12 | 104.3 |
| 2022-11 | 104.4 |
| 2022-10 | 105.5 |
| 2022-09 | 105.5 |
| 2022-08 | 106.6 |
| 2022-07 | 106.6 |
| 2022-06 | 107.6 |
| 2022-05 | 109.0 |
| 2022-04 | 108.1 |
| 2022-03 | 108.4 |
| 2022-02 | 111.9 |
| 2022-01 | 105.3 |
| 2021-12 | 107.1 |
| 2021-11 | 113.8 |
| 2021-10 | 112.6 |
| 2021-09 | 109.7 |
| 2021-08 | 108.2 |
| 2021-07 | 110.7 |
| 2021-06 | 111.6 |
| 2021-05 | 106.1 |
| 2021-04 | 91.2 |
| 2021-03 | 93.5 |
| 2021-02 | 88.0 |
| 2021-01 | 91.0 |
| 2020-12 | 89.6 |
| 2020-11 | 77.4 |
| 2020-10 | 88.3 |
| 2020-09 | 94.0 |
| 2020-08 | 93.2 |
| 2020-07 | 88.4 |
| 2020-06 | 77.5 |
| 2020-05 | 50.8 |
| 2020-04 | 40.7 |
| 2020-03 | 92.5 |
| 2020-02 | 105.8 |
| 2020-01 | 105.9 |
| 2019-12 | 106.3 |
| 2019-11 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 105.5 |
| 2019-09 | 105.4 |
| 2019-08 | 104.8 |
| 2019-07 | 104.8 |
| 2019-06 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 105.3 |
| 2019-04 | 105.3 |
| 2019-03 | 104.5 |
| 2019-02 | 103.5 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2018-12 | 101.8 |
| 2018-11 | 103.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.1 |
| 2018-09 | 104.2 |
| 2018-08 | 103.8 |
| 2018-07 | 104.2 |
| 2018-06 | 104.3 |
| 2018-05 | 103.9 |
| 2018-04 | 105.6 |
| 2018-03 | 106.5 |
| 2018-02 | 106.4 |
| 2018-01 | 107.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.3 |
| 2017-11 | 107.1 |
| 2017-10 | 106.5 |
| 2017-09 | 106.3 |
| 2017-08 | 105.8 |
| 2017-07 | 103.7 |
| 2017-06 | 103.2 |
| 2017-05 | 102.4 |
| 2017-04 | 103.0 |
| 2017-03 | 103.1 |
| 2017-02 | 102.7 |
| 2017-01 | 101.5 |
| 2016-12 | 103.3 |
| 2016-11 | 100.7 |
| 2016-10 | 100.6 |
| 2016-09 | 100.7 |
| 2016-08 | 100.1 |
| 2016-07 | 100.3 |
| 2016-06 | 99.0 |
| 2016-05 | 100.6 |
| 2016-04 | 98.3 |
| 2016-03 | 99.5 |
| 2016-02 | 99.8 |
| 2016-01 | 100.0 |
| 2015-12 | 97.1 |
| 2015-11 | 99.2 |
| 2015-10 | 99.5 |
| 2015-09 | 97.5 |
| 2015-08 | 98.6 |
| 2015-07 | 97.5 |
| 2015-06 | 96.9 |
| 2015-05 | 95.4 |
| 2015-04 | 94.0 |
| 2015-03 | 92.5 |
| 2015-02 | 91.6 |
| 2015-01 | 91.3 |
| 2014-12 | 91.5 |
| 2014-11 | 91.4 |
| 2014-10 | 91.5 |
| 2014-09 | 91.2 |
| 2014-08 | 91.8 |
| 2014-07 | 92.7 |
| 2014-06 | 92.4 |
| 2014-05 | 92.3 |
| 2014-04 | 93.4 |
| 2014-03 | 93.1 |
| 2014-02 | 92.3 |
| 2014-01 | 92.4 |
| 2013-12 | 91.1 |
| 2013-11 | 92.5 |
| 2013-10 | 91.8 |
| 2013-09 | 92.4 |
| 2013-08 | 88.8 |
| 2013-07 | 86.9 |
| 2013-06 | 86.4 |
| 2013-05 | 85.2 |
| 2013-04 | 83.8 |
| 2013-03 | 84.6 |
| 2013-02 | 87.4 |
| 2013-01 | 88.6 |
| 2012-12 | 87.5 |
| 2012-11 | 86.0 |
| 2012-10 | 86.6 |
| 2012-09 | 87.7 |
| 2012-08 | 87.9 |
| 2012-07 | 90.0 |
| 2012-06 | 90.4 |
| 2012-05 | 92.4 |
| 2012-04 | 95.9 |
| 2012-03 | 93.9 |
| 2012-02 | 92.5 |
| 2012-01 | 93.2 |
| 2011-12 | 95.1 |
| 2011-11 | 95.4 |
| 2011-10 | 97.5 |
| 2011-09 | 98.6 |
| 2011-08 | 100.7 |
| 2011-07 | 105.0 |
| 2011-06 | 107.1 |
| 2011-05 | 107.5 |
| 2011-04 | 108.9 |
| 2011-03 | 110.2 |
| 2011-02 | 109.0 |
| 2011-01 | 106.9 |
| 2010-12 | 106.6 |
| 2010-11 | 104.6 |
| 2010-10 | 102.8 |
| 2010-09 | 101.5 |
| 2010-08 | 100.6 |
| 2010-07 | 99.1 |
| 2010-06 | 98.3 |
| 2010-05 | 99.2 |
| 2010-04 | 97.6 |
| 2010-03 | 94.5 |
| 2010-02 | 94.3 |
| 2010-01 | 94.1 |
| 2009-12 | 92.7 |
| 2009-11 | 92.2 |
| 2009-10 | 90.8 |
| 2009-09 | 87.7 |
| 2009-08 | 84.6 |
| 2009-07 | 82.0 |
| 2009-06 | 78.4 |
| 2009-05 | 73.9 |
| 2009-04 | 69.9 |
| 2009-03 | 69.8 |
| 2009-02 | 74.8 |
| 2009-01 | 76.0 |
| 2008-12 | 78.5 |
| 2008-11 | 81.6 |
| 2008-10 | 85.5 |
| 2008-09 | 93.9 |
| 2008-08 | 95.8 |
| 2008-07 | 97.3 |
| 2008-06 | 101.5 |
| 2008-05 | 104.6 |
| 2008-04 | 107.0 |
| 2008-03 | 108.5 |
| 2008-02 | 108.5 |
| 2008-01 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 108.9 |
| 2007-11 | 110.0 |
| 2007-10 | 109.9 |
| 2007-09 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 111.9 |
| 2007-07 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.2 |
| 2007-05 | 112.5 |
| 2007-04 | 112.7 |
| 2007-03 | 113.0 |
| 2007-02 | 112.0 |
| 2007-01 | 110.6 |
| 2006-12 | 111.2 |
| 2006-11 | 112.7 |
| 2006-10 | 110.6 |
| 2006-09 | 110.4 |
| 2006-08 | 110.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.1 |
| 2006-06 | 109.0 |
| 2006-05 | 110.2 |
| 2006-04 | 107.7 |
| 2006-03 | 107.4 |
| 2006-02 | 106.1 |
| 2006-01 | 108.5 |
| 2005-12 | 106.6 |
| 2005-11 | 106.3 |
| 2005-10 | 108.3 |
| 2005-09 | 106.8 |
| 2005-08 | 107.2 |
| 2005-07 | 107.5 |
| 2005-06 | 108.2 |
| 2005-05 | 106.0 |
| 2005-04 | 107.8 |
| 2005-03 | 108.1 |
| 2005-02 | 106.1 |
| 2005-01 | 106.3 |
graphique Business climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Business managers expectations on activity have deteriorated very slightly
In December 2022, the business managers in services are a bit less optimistic than in the previous month about their activity prospects: the balances of opinion related to the general business outlook for the sector and to expected demand have decreased slightly again. The first one remains above its average whereas the second one has reached its own. For its part, the balance about the personal business outlook is stable, just above its average. At the same time, the balance on economic uncertainty felt has rebounded slightly.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months is virtually stable and remains above its average.
The balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices is stable, well above its average. The one on the expected change in selling prices has increased for the third month in a row and has reached a level not seen since 1988.
tableau Expected prices in services
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2022-12 | 14.5 |
| 2022-11 | 12.9 |
| 2022-10 | 10.5 |
| 2022-09 | 8.8 |
| 2022-08 | 10.4 |
| 2022-07 | 12.4 |
| 2022-06 | 11.0 |
| 2022-05 | 10.5 |
| 2022-04 | 12.1 |
| 2022-03 | 7.3 |
| 2022-02 | 9.0 |
| 2022-01 | 8.0 |
| 2021-12 | 5.5 |
| 2021-11 | 6.6 |
| 2021-10 | 2.9 |
| 2021-09 | 1.8 |
| 2021-08 | 4.0 |
| 2021-07 | 5.2 |
| 2021-06 | 0.8 |
| 2021-05 | -0.6 |
| 2021-04 | -8.1 |
| 2021-03 | -8.0 |
| 2021-02 | -10.9 |
| 2021-01 | -9.4 |
| 2020-12 | -8.1 |
| 2020-11 | -12.7 |
| 2020-10 | -10.3 |
| 2020-09 | -4.8 |
| 2020-08 | -5.4 |
| 2020-07 | -7.0 |
| 2020-06 | -12.3 |
| 2020-05 | -22.6 |
| 2020-04 | -22.6 |
| 2020-03 | -3.7 |
| 2020-02 | 0.7 |
| 2020-01 | 0.3 |
| 2019-12 | 0.1 |
| 2019-11 | -0.2 |
| 2019-10 | 0.7 |
| 2019-09 | -2.2 |
| 2019-08 | -0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 1.7 |
| 2019-06 | 0.4 |
| 2019-05 | -1.9 |
| 2019-04 | -2.1 |
| 2019-03 | -1.3 |
| 2019-02 | -2.5 |
| 2019-01 | -2.2 |
| 2018-12 | -0.2 |
| 2018-11 | -2.4 |
| 2018-10 | -3.6 |
| 2018-09 | -2.8 |
| 2018-08 | -0.3 |
| 2018-07 | -5.3 |
| 2018-06 | -4.6 |
| 2018-05 | -2.3 |
| 2018-04 | -2.7 |
| 2018-03 | -3.5 |
| 2018-02 | -3.9 |
| 2018-01 | -2.5 |
| 2017-12 | -3.7 |
| 2017-11 | -2.6 |
| 2017-10 | -2.8 |
| 2017-09 | -2.8 |
| 2017-08 | -5.2 |
| 2017-07 | -5.7 |
| 2017-06 | -4.0 |
| 2017-05 | -5.3 |
| 2017-04 | -5.1 |
| 2017-03 | -3.8 |
| 2017-02 | -3.9 |
| 2017-01 | -6.5 |
| 2016-12 | -5.5 |
| 2016-11 | -7.7 |
| 2016-10 | -6.8 |
| 2016-09 | -4.8 |
| 2016-08 | -5.2 |
| 2016-07 | -4.7 |
| 2016-06 | -6.8 |
| 2016-05 | -6.2 |
| 2016-04 | -4.9 |
| 2016-03 | -5.1 |
| 2016-02 | -4.6 |
| 2016-01 | -8.5 |
| 2015-12 | -8.8 |
| 2015-11 | -5.8 |
| 2015-10 | -5.9 |
| 2015-09 | -7.5 |
| 2015-08 | -6.4 |
| 2015-07 | -6.9 |
| 2015-06 | -6.1 |
| 2015-05 | -6.2 |
| 2015-04 | -7.8 |
| 2015-03 | -9.8 |
| 2015-02 | -9.7 |
| 2015-01 | -11.4 |
| 2014-12 | -11.0 |
| 2014-11 | -10.3 |
| 2014-10 | -9.5 |
| 2014-09 | -10.6 |
| 2014-08 | -9.0 |
| 2014-07 | -9.2 |
| 2014-06 | -9.3 |
| 2014-05 | -9.9 |
| 2014-04 | -9.6 |
| 2014-03 | -10.8 |
| 2014-02 | -11.0 |
| 2014-01 | -8.4 |
| 2013-12 | -9.4 |
| 2013-11 | -8.4 |
| 2013-10 | -10.1 |
| 2013-09 | -10.4 |
| 2013-08 | -10.7 |
| 2013-07 | -12.3 |
| 2013-06 | -12.0 |
| 2013-05 | -12.2 |
| 2013-04 | -12.2 |
| 2013-03 | -12.0 |
| 2013-02 | -11.9 |
| 2013-01 | -9.8 |
| 2012-12 | -9.2 |
| 2012-11 | -9.5 |
| 2012-10 | -11.0 |
| 2012-09 | -7.6 |
| 2012-08 | -7.8 |
| 2012-07 | -4.3 |
| 2012-06 | -6.0 |
| 2012-05 | -5.6 |
| 2012-04 | -4.2 |
| 2012-03 | -0.7 |
| 2012-02 | -3.4 |
| 2012-01 | 0.5 |
| 2011-12 | -2.3 |
| 2011-11 | -4.3 |
| 2011-10 | -3.0 |
| 2011-09 | -1.6 |
| 2011-08 | -1.5 |
| 2011-07 | -0.3 |
| 2011-06 | 0.5 |
| 2011-05 | 5.1 |
| 2011-04 | 2.4 |
| 2011-03 | 3.5 |
| 2011-02 | 3.3 |
| 2011-01 | -0.1 |
| 2010-12 | 0.0 |
| 2010-11 | -1.1 |
| 2010-10 | -0.9 |
| 2010-09 | -3.1 |
| 2010-08 | -3.8 |
| 2010-07 | -7.7 |
| 2010-06 | -5.4 |
| 2010-05 | -5.7 |
| 2010-04 | -7.8 |
| 2010-03 | -7.5 |
| 2010-02 | -9.0 |
| 2010-01 | -8.5 |
| 2009-12 | -10.1 |
| 2009-11 | -10.1 |
| 2009-10 | -9.4 |
| 2009-09 | -12.4 |
| 2009-08 | -14.4 |
| 2009-07 | -18.5 |
| 2009-06 | -15.4 |
| 2009-05 | -17.8 |
| 2009-04 | -17.7 |
| 2009-03 | -17.1 |
| 2009-02 | -13.1 |
| 2009-01 | -13.1 |
| 2008-12 | -13.8 |
| 2008-11 | -9.6 |
| 2008-10 | -2.7 |
| 2008-09 | 0.3 |
| 2008-08 | 1.5 |
| 2008-07 | 3.4 |
| 2008-06 | 3.3 |
| 2008-05 | 3.4 |
| 2008-04 | 3.9 |
| 2008-03 | 2.6 |
| 2008-02 | 2.1 |
| 2008-01 | 2.2 |
| 2007-12 | 3.0 |
| 2007-11 | 2.8 |
| 2007-10 | 1.3 |
| 2007-09 | 2.3 |
| 2007-08 | 3.2 |
| 2007-07 | 3.4 |
| 2007-06 | 2.1 |
| 2007-05 | 2.9 |
| 2007-04 | 2.2 |
| 2007-03 | 1.5 |
| 2007-02 | 1.1 |
| 2007-01 | 1.8 |
graphique Expected prices in services
- Source: INSEE
Concerning employment, the balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months has rebounded sharply and stands well above its average. Conversely, the one on the expected workforce size has fallen back but remains above its own.
tableau Economic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Sep. 2022 | Oct. 2022 | Nov. 2022 | Dec. 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 105 | 104 | 104 |
| General outlook | -7 | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 |
| Past activity | 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Past selling prices | -3 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Expected selling prices | -2 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| Past employment | 2 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 12 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 12 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has evolved in mixed ways in the sub-sectors of services
In December 2022, the business climate indicator has fallen back sharply in real estate activities and has returned just below its average. In particular, the balances about past and expected employment and expected activity have decreased sharply.
In road freight transport, the business climate has deteriorated and has returned to its average level. The forward-looking balances on activity and the general business outlook have decreased and have returned below their average.
In accommodation and food services, the business climate has deteriorated again but remains above its average. In particular, the balance on past activity and the one on expected demand have decreased strongly. The latter has returned below its average.
In administrative and support services, the business climate has improved and stands above its average. In particular, the forward-looking balances on activity and demand have improved.
tableau Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Sep. 2022 | Oct. 2022 | Nov. 2022 | Dec. 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 103 | 102 | 102 | 100 |
| Past activity | -5 | -2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| Expected activity | -6 | -6 | -1 | -4 | -7 |
| Expected demand | -8 | -1 | -16 | -16 | -18 |
| Past employment | -5 | -5 | 2 | -4 | -1 |
| Expected employment | -6 | -6 | -1 | 6 | 6 |
| General outlook | -18 | -13 | -11 | -13 | -23 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 106 | 104 | 103 |
| Past activity | -7 | 28 | 28 | 27 | 5 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -2 | -1 | -8 | -3 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -5 | -6 | -8 | -16 |
| Past employment | -5 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| General outlook | -14 | -15 | -15 | -13 | -10 |
| Information and communication (26 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 105 | 105 | 106 |
| Past activity | 7 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 11 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 12 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 14 | 6 | 15 | 10 |
| Past employment | 6 | 9 | 20 | 20 | 28 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 11 |
| General outlook | 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| Real estate activities (11 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 102 | 105 | 104 | 99 |
| Past activity | 7 | 17 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 0 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 | -1 |
| Past employment | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 2 |
| General outlook | -4 | -5 | -5 | -7 | -9 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 107 | 106 | 104 | 104 |
| Past activity | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -1 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | -3 |
| Expected demand | -5 | 1 | 2 | -3 | -1 |
| Past employment | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| General outlook | -8 | 2 | -3 | -1 | -3 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 101 | 105 | 101 | 103 |
| Past activity | 5 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 13 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| Past employment | 8 | -6 | 16 | -3 | 25 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 15 | 15 | 18 | 9 |
| General outlook | -3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator in services of November 2022 has not been revised (after rounding).
For further information
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 28 November and 12 December 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 24 January 2023 at 8:45 am.
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf, 181 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (in French) (pdf, 193 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 28 November and 12 December 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 24 January 2023 at 8:45 am.