Informations Rapides · 30 November 2022 · n° 309

In Q3 2022, GDP slowed down (+0.2%) while the purchasing power of GDHI per consumption unit rebounded (+0.8%) Quarterly national accounts - detailed figures - third quarter 2022

In Q3 2022, GDP slowed down in volume terms* (+0.2% in quarterly variation, after +0.5% in Q2 2022). Household consumption fell slightly (-0.1% after +0.4%), pulled down by their consumption of goods. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) was dynamic (+1.7% after +0.5%), driven in particular by business investment in automobiles and computer services. Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventories contributed to GDP growth by +0.4 points (after +0.3 points in Q2).

Foreign trade accelerated: imports grew significantly (+3.5% after +1.6%). Exports increased more moderately (+2.0% after +0.9%), with dynamic exports of goods but stable exports of services. The contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was consequently negative for the second consecutive quarter, at -0.5 points after -0.2 points.

Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was positive this quarter (+0.3 points after +0.4 points in Q2 2022).

* Volumes are measured at previous year's prices, chain-linked and adjusted for seasonal variations and working day effects (SVC-WD).

Household gross disposable income (GDI) in current euros accelerated in Q3 2022 (+2.6% after +1.1%). Social benefits in cash rebounded strongly (+2.9% after +0.1%), due to the effect of the anticipated revaluation of basic retirement pensions and family benefits in July, and the payment of exceptional back-to-school aid to modest households. The wage bill received by households accelerated (+1.8% after +1.4%): salaried employment continued to grow (+0.4% after +0.3%) while the average wage per capita accelerated (+1.5% after +1.0%), due in particular to the revaluation of the civil service index point and the increase in the minimum wage. This dynamism was partly mitigated by the mechanical rise in social security contributions in the wake of the wage bill. Moreover, there is a clear increase in tax levies (+2.0% after +0.5%), in particular income taxes and despite the initial effects of the suppression of the public broadcasting contribution.

At the same time, the household consumption deflator slowed down slightly but remained very dynamic (+1.7% after +2.0%). Thus, the purchasing power of GDHI rebounded (+0.9% after -0.9%). Measured per consumption unit to be brought back to an individual level, it increased by 0.8% (after -1.0%).

The household savings rate rebounded this quarter to 16.6%, after 15.8% in Q2 2022. Household consumption expenditure in value terms increased by 1.6% this quarter, one point less than their gross disposable income (+2.6%).

Total hours worked increased by 0.3% in the third quarter (after +1.2%). Total employment continued to rise (+0.4% after +0.3%) but the number of hours per job was almost stable, as the number of sick days remained high.

In the third quarter of 2022, the margin rate of non-financial corporations (NFC) increased again, by 0.3 percentage points, to 31.8% after 31.5%, below its average level in 2021 (34.2%). The increase in the margin rate was due in part to the decline in the apparent employer's contribution rate, as a result of the payment of bonuses exempt from contributions ("prime de partage de la valeur") and the mechanical increase in general contribution reductions with the revaluation of the minimum wage. Wages paid increased in line with the price of NFC value added, but less strongly than the price of consumption. The contributions of the fall in real wages and the deterioration in the terms of trade to the evolution of the margin rate therefore offset each other. Finally, productivity per capita was almost stable this quarter and is therefore neutral on the evolution of the margin rate.

In Q3 2022, the general government borrowing requirement increased by 1.5 percentage points, after two consecutive quarters of decline. It stands at 4.7% of GDP, after 3.2% in Q2 2022. The dynamism of public spending increased sharply (+2.3% after +1.6%), due to the revaluation of social benefits and the civil service index point. On the opposite, public revenues fell back slightly (-0.3% after +3.2%), mainly due to the mechanical backlash from the strong increase in corporate income tax revenues in the previous quarter.

The evolution of GDP in Q3 2022 is confirmed at +0.2%, as in the first estimate.

Since the previous publication, new informations have been included and the seasonal adjustment (SVA) and working day adjustment (WDA) coefficients have been updated, but these revisions broadly offset each other in the GDP growth estimate. In particular, exports and imports have been revised upwards significantly, but the revisions offset each other so that the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth is unchanged.