Informations Rapides ·
22 September 2022 · n° 246
In September 2022, the business climate has deteriorated slightly in services Monthly survey of services - September 2022
According to the business managers surveyed in September 2022, the business climate has deteriorated slightly in services. At 106, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it has lost one point but remains above its long-term average (100).
According to the business managers surveyed in September 2022, the business climate has deteriorated slightly in services. At 106, the business climate indicator that synthesizes it has lost one point but remains above its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2022-09 | 105.9 |
| 2022-08 | 106.7 |
| 2022-07 | 106.7 |
| 2022-06 | 107.7 |
| 2022-05 | 109.0 |
| 2022-04 | 108.2 |
| 2022-03 | 108.5 |
| 2022-02 | 111.9 |
| 2022-01 | 105.3 |
| 2021-12 | 107.1 |
| 2021-11 | 113.8 |
| 2021-10 | 112.6 |
| 2021-09 | 109.7 |
| 2021-08 | 108.3 |
| 2021-07 | 110.7 |
| 2021-06 | 111.6 |
| 2021-05 | 106.1 |
| 2021-04 | 91.3 |
| 2021-03 | 93.5 |
| 2021-02 | 88.1 |
| 2021-01 | 91.1 |
| 2020-12 | 89.7 |
| 2020-11 | 77.5 |
| 2020-10 | 88.4 |
| 2020-09 | 94.1 |
| 2020-08 | 93.3 |
| 2020-07 | 88.5 |
| 2020-06 | 77.6 |
| 2020-05 | 51.1 |
| 2020-04 | 41.0 |
| 2020-03 | 92.6 |
| 2020-02 | 105.8 |
| 2020-01 | 105.9 |
| 2019-12 | 106.3 |
| 2019-11 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 105.5 |
| 2019-09 | 105.4 |
| 2019-08 | 104.8 |
| 2019-07 | 104.9 |
| 2019-06 | 105.6 |
| 2019-05 | 105.3 |
| 2019-04 | 105.3 |
| 2019-03 | 104.5 |
| 2019-02 | 103.5 |
| 2019-01 | 103.4 |
| 2018-12 | 101.9 |
| 2018-11 | 103.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.1 |
| 2018-09 | 104.3 |
| 2018-08 | 103.8 |
| 2018-07 | 104.2 |
| 2018-06 | 104.4 |
| 2018-05 | 103.9 |
| 2018-04 | 105.7 |
| 2018-03 | 106.5 |
| 2018-02 | 106.4 |
| 2018-01 | 107.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.3 |
| 2017-11 | 107.1 |
| 2017-10 | 106.5 |
| 2017-09 | 106.3 |
| 2017-08 | 105.8 |
| 2017-07 | 103.7 |
| 2017-06 | 103.2 |
| 2017-05 | 102.5 |
| 2017-04 | 103.0 |
| 2017-03 | 103.1 |
| 2017-02 | 102.7 |
| 2017-01 | 101.6 |
| 2016-12 | 103.3 |
| 2016-11 | 100.8 |
| 2016-10 | 100.6 |
| 2016-09 | 100.7 |
| 2016-08 | 100.1 |
| 2016-07 | 100.3 |
| 2016-06 | 99.1 |
| 2016-05 | 100.7 |
| 2016-04 | 98.4 |
| 2016-03 | 99.5 |
| 2016-02 | 99.9 |
| 2016-01 | 100.0 |
| 2015-12 | 97.1 |
| 2015-11 | 99.3 |
| 2015-10 | 99.5 |
| 2015-09 | 97.6 |
| 2015-08 | 98.6 |
| 2015-07 | 97.5 |
| 2015-06 | 96.9 |
| 2015-05 | 95.5 |
| 2015-04 | 94.1 |
| 2015-03 | 92.5 |
| 2015-02 | 91.7 |
| 2015-01 | 91.4 |
| 2014-12 | 91.5 |
| 2014-11 | 91.5 |
| 2014-10 | 91.5 |
| 2014-09 | 91.3 |
| 2014-08 | 91.8 |
| 2014-07 | 92.8 |
| 2014-06 | 92.5 |
| 2014-05 | 92.4 |
| 2014-04 | 93.5 |
| 2014-03 | 93.2 |
| 2014-02 | 92.3 |
| 2014-01 | 92.5 |
| 2013-12 | 91.2 |
| 2013-11 | 92.6 |
| 2013-10 | 91.9 |
| 2013-09 | 92.4 |
| 2013-08 | 88.9 |
| 2013-07 | 87.0 |
| 2013-06 | 86.5 |
| 2013-05 | 85.3 |
| 2013-04 | 83.9 |
| 2013-03 | 84.7 |
| 2013-02 | 87.5 |
| 2013-01 | 88.7 |
| 2012-12 | 87.6 |
| 2012-11 | 86.1 |
| 2012-10 | 86.7 |
| 2012-09 | 87.8 |
| 2012-08 | 88.0 |
| 2012-07 | 90.1 |
| 2012-06 | 90.5 |
| 2012-05 | 92.5 |
| 2012-04 | 96.0 |
| 2012-03 | 94.0 |
| 2012-02 | 92.6 |
| 2012-01 | 93.3 |
| 2011-12 | 95.2 |
| 2011-11 | 95.5 |
| 2011-10 | 97.6 |
| 2011-09 | 98.6 |
| 2011-08 | 100.7 |
| 2011-07 | 105.0 |
| 2011-06 | 107.1 |
| 2011-05 | 107.6 |
| 2011-04 | 108.9 |
| 2011-03 | 110.2 |
| 2011-02 | 109.0 |
| 2011-01 | 106.9 |
| 2010-12 | 106.7 |
| 2010-11 | 104.7 |
| 2010-10 | 102.8 |
| 2010-09 | 101.6 |
| 2010-08 | 100.6 |
| 2010-07 | 99.1 |
| 2010-06 | 98.3 |
| 2010-05 | 99.2 |
| 2010-04 | 97.6 |
| 2010-03 | 94.6 |
| 2010-02 | 94.3 |
| 2010-01 | 94.1 |
| 2009-12 | 92.7 |
| 2009-11 | 92.2 |
| 2009-10 | 90.9 |
| 2009-09 | 87.8 |
| 2009-08 | 84.7 |
| 2009-07 | 82.1 |
| 2009-06 | 78.6 |
| 2009-05 | 74.0 |
| 2009-04 | 70.1 |
| 2009-03 | 70.0 |
| 2009-02 | 75.0 |
| 2009-01 | 76.2 |
| 2008-12 | 78.7 |
| 2008-11 | 81.7 |
| 2008-10 | 85.6 |
| 2008-09 | 94.0 |
| 2008-08 | 95.9 |
| 2008-07 | 97.4 |
| 2008-06 | 101.6 |
| 2008-05 | 104.6 |
| 2008-04 | 107.0 |
| 2008-03 | 108.5 |
| 2008-02 | 108.5 |
| 2008-01 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 108.9 |
| 2007-11 | 110.0 |
| 2007-10 | 109.9 |
| 2007-09 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 111.9 |
| 2007-07 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.2 |
| 2007-05 | 112.5 |
| 2007-04 | 112.6 |
| 2007-03 | 113.0 |
| 2007-02 | 112.0 |
| 2007-01 | 110.6 |
| 2006-12 | 111.2 |
| 2006-11 | 112.7 |
| 2006-10 | 110.6 |
| 2006-09 | 110.4 |
| 2006-08 | 110.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.1 |
| 2006-06 | 109.0 |
| 2006-05 | 110.2 |
| 2006-04 | 107.7 |
| 2006-03 | 107.4 |
| 2006-02 | 106.1 |
| 2006-01 | 108.5 |
| 2005-12 | 106.6 |
| 2005-11 | 106.3 |
| 2005-10 | 108.3 |
| 2005-09 | 106.8 |
| 2005-08 | 107.2 |
| 2005-07 | 107.6 |
| 2005-06 | 108.2 |
| 2005-05 | 106.0 |
| 2005-04 | 107.8 |
| 2005-03 | 108.1 |
| 2005-02 | 106.2 |
| 2005-01 | 106.4 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The business managers are a bit less optimistic about their activity prospects compared to August
In September 2022, the business managers in services are a bit less optimistic than in the previous month about their activity prospects: the balances of opinion related to the general business outlook for the sector and to the personal business outlook have deteriorated but remain above their averages. The balance about expected demand has improved after three months of decline in a row and therefore remains above its average. At the same time, the balance on economic uncertainty felt has rebounded.
The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months has decreased sharply but remains above its average.
The balances of opinion on the recent and expected change in selling prices have both decreased for the second month in a row but remain well above their long-term averages.
tableauExpected prices in services
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2022-09 | 8.7 |
| 2022-08 | 10.4 |
| 2022-07 | 12.4 |
| 2022-06 | 11.0 |
| 2022-05 | 10.5 |
| 2022-04 | 12.1 |
| 2022-03 | 7.3 |
| 2022-02 | 9.0 |
| 2022-01 | 8.0 |
| 2021-12 | 5.5 |
| 2021-11 | 6.6 |
| 2021-10 | 2.9 |
| 2021-09 | 1.8 |
| 2021-08 | 4.0 |
| 2021-07 | 5.2 |
| 2021-06 | 0.8 |
| 2021-05 | -0.6 |
| 2021-04 | -8.1 |
| 2021-03 | -8.0 |
| 2021-02 | -10.9 |
| 2021-01 | -9.4 |
| 2020-12 | -8.1 |
| 2020-11 | -12.7 |
| 2020-10 | -10.3 |
| 2020-09 | -4.8 |
| 2020-08 | -5.4 |
| 2020-07 | -7.0 |
| 2020-06 | -12.3 |
| 2020-05 | -22.6 |
| 2020-04 | -22.6 |
| 2020-03 | -3.7 |
| 2020-02 | 0.7 |
| 2020-01 | 0.3 |
| 2019-12 | 0.1 |
| 2019-11 | -0.2 |
| 2019-10 | 0.7 |
| 2019-09 | -2.2 |
| 2019-08 | -0.9 |
| 2019-07 | 1.7 |
| 2019-06 | 0.4 |
| 2019-05 | -1.9 |
| 2019-04 | -2.1 |
| 2019-03 | -1.3 |
| 2019-02 | -2.5 |
| 2019-01 | -2.2 |
| 2018-12 | -0.2 |
| 2018-11 | -2.4 |
| 2018-10 | -3.6 |
| 2018-09 | -2.8 |
| 2018-08 | -0.3 |
| 2018-07 | -5.3 |
| 2018-06 | -4.6 |
| 2018-05 | -2.3 |
| 2018-04 | -2.7 |
| 2018-03 | -3.5 |
| 2018-02 | -3.9 |
| 2018-01 | -2.5 |
| 2017-12 | -3.7 |
| 2017-11 | -2.6 |
| 2017-10 | -2.8 |
| 2017-09 | -2.8 |
| 2017-08 | -5.2 |
| 2017-07 | -5.7 |
| 2017-06 | -4.0 |
| 2017-05 | -5.3 |
| 2017-04 | -5.1 |
| 2017-03 | -3.8 |
| 2017-02 | -3.9 |
| 2017-01 | -6.5 |
| 2016-12 | -5.5 |
| 2016-11 | -7.7 |
| 2016-10 | -6.8 |
| 2016-09 | -4.8 |
| 2016-08 | -5.2 |
| 2016-07 | -4.7 |
| 2016-06 | -6.8 |
| 2016-05 | -6.2 |
| 2016-04 | -4.9 |
| 2016-03 | -5.1 |
| 2016-02 | -4.6 |
| 2016-01 | -8.5 |
| 2015-12 | -8.8 |
| 2015-11 | -5.8 |
| 2015-10 | -5.9 |
| 2015-09 | -7.5 |
| 2015-08 | -6.4 |
| 2015-07 | -6.9 |
| 2015-06 | -6.1 |
| 2015-05 | -6.2 |
| 2015-04 | -7.8 |
| 2015-03 | -9.8 |
| 2015-02 | -9.7 |
| 2015-01 | -11.4 |
| 2014-12 | -11.0 |
| 2014-11 | -10.3 |
| 2014-10 | -9.5 |
| 2014-09 | -10.6 |
| 2014-08 | -9.0 |
| 2014-07 | -9.2 |
| 2014-06 | -9.3 |
| 2014-05 | -9.9 |
| 2014-04 | -9.6 |
| 2014-03 | -10.8 |
| 2014-02 | -11.0 |
| 2014-01 | -8.4 |
| 2013-12 | -9.4 |
| 2013-11 | -8.4 |
| 2013-10 | -10.1 |
| 2013-09 | -10.4 |
| 2013-08 | -10.7 |
| 2013-07 | -12.3 |
| 2013-06 | -12.0 |
| 2013-05 | -12.2 |
| 2013-04 | -12.2 |
| 2013-03 | -12.0 |
| 2013-02 | -11.9 |
| 2013-01 | -9.8 |
| 2012-12 | -9.2 |
| 2012-11 | -9.5 |
| 2012-10 | -11.0 |
| 2012-09 | -7.6 |
| 2012-08 | -7.8 |
| 2012-07 | -4.3 |
| 2012-06 | -6.0 |
| 2012-05 | -5.6 |
| 2012-04 | -4.2 |
| 2012-03 | -0.7 |
| 2012-02 | -3.4 |
| 2012-01 | 0.5 |
| 2011-12 | -2.3 |
| 2011-11 | -4.3 |
| 2011-10 | -3.0 |
| 2011-09 | -1.6 |
| 2011-08 | -1.5 |
| 2011-07 | -0.3 |
| 2011-06 | 0.5 |
| 2011-05 | 5.1 |
| 2011-04 | 2.4 |
| 2011-03 | 3.5 |
| 2011-02 | 3.3 |
| 2011-01 | -0.1 |
| 2010-12 | 0.0 |
| 2010-11 | -1.1 |
| 2010-10 | -0.9 |
| 2010-09 | -3.1 |
| 2010-08 | -3.8 |
| 2010-07 | -7.7 |
| 2010-06 | -5.4 |
| 2010-05 | -5.7 |
| 2010-04 | -7.8 |
| 2010-03 | -7.5 |
| 2010-02 | -9.0 |
| 2010-01 | -8.5 |
| 2009-12 | -10.1 |
| 2009-11 | -10.1 |
| 2009-10 | -9.4 |
| 2009-09 | -12.4 |
| 2009-08 | -14.4 |
| 2009-07 | -18.5 |
| 2009-06 | -15.4 |
| 2009-05 | -17.8 |
| 2009-04 | -17.7 |
| 2009-03 | -17.1 |
| 2009-02 | -13.1 |
| 2009-01 | -13.1 |
| 2008-12 | -13.8 |
| 2008-11 | -9.6 |
| 2008-10 | -2.7 |
| 2008-09 | 0.3 |
| 2008-08 | 1.5 |
| 2008-07 | 3.4 |
| 2008-06 | 3.3 |
| 2008-05 | 3.4 |
| 2008-04 | 3.9 |
| 2008-03 | 2.6 |
| 2008-02 | 2.1 |
| 2008-01 | 2.2 |
| 2007-12 | 3.0 |
| 2007-11 | 2.8 |
| 2007-10 | 1.3 |
| 2007-09 | 2.3 |
| 2007-08 | 3.2 |
| 2007-07 | 3.4 |
| 2007-06 | 2.1 |
| 2007-05 | 2.9 |
| 2007-04 | 2.2 |
| 2007-03 | 1.5 |
| 2007-02 | 1.1 |
| 2007-01 | 1.8 |
graphiqueExpected prices in services
- Source: INSEE
Concerning employment, the balance of opinion on the change in the workforce size over the last three months has rebounded and has returned to its average level. The one on expected workforce size has also improved and has moved away from its own.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | June 2022 | July 2022 | Aug. 2022 | Sep. 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 108 | 107 | 107 | 106 |
| General outlook | -7 | 2 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
| Past activity | 2 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 6 |
| Expected activity | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| Expected demand | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Past selling prices | -3 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 9 |
| Expected selling prices | -2 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| Past employment | 2 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| Expected employment | 2 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| Economic uncertainty felt** | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (June 2000) and uncertainty (April 2021)
- ** Balance of opinion not seasonally adjusted
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has deteriorated again in accommodation and food services and remains quite favourable
In September 2022, in accommodation and food services, the business climate indicator has declined sharply but remains above its average. In particular, the forward-looking balances on the general and personal business outlook and on expected demand have decreased strongly.
In real estate activities, the business climate has deteriorated and stands just above its average. In particular, the balance of opinion on the general business outlook has fallen back and has moved below its average, as well as the one on past employment.
In information-communication, the business climate indicator has decreased but remains above its average. In particular, the balance of opinion on expected employment has decreased sharply but remains above its average.
In professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate indicator is virtually stable. Indeed, the balance on past activity has decreased and has moved below its average whereas the one on expected demand has improved and remains above its own.
In road freight transport and administrative and support services, the business climate indicators have improved and have moved above their long-term average. In particular, the balances of opinion on expected demand have improved sharply.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | June 2022 | July 2022 | Aug. 2022 | Sep. 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 101 | 100 | 100 | 102 |
| Past activity | -5 | 13 | 7 | 5 | -2 |
| Expected activity | -6 | -5 | -9 | -3 | -7 |
| Expected demand | -8 | -13 | -14 | -17 | -1 |
| Past employment | -5 | -10 | -12 | -12 | -5 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -9 | -3 | -4 | -5 |
| General outlook | -18 | -13 | -14 | -17 | -12 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 121 | 117 | 114 | 105 |
| Past activity | -7 | 34 | 28 | 23 | 30 |
| Expected activity | -8 | 7 | 9 | 10 | -4 |
| Expected demand | -9 | 22 | 8 | 1 | -6 |
| Past employment | -5 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| Expected employment | -6 | 5 | 6 | -3 | -1 |
| General outlook | -14 | 23 | 20 | 11 | -14 |
| Information and communication (26 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 107 | 108 | 106 |
| Past activity | 7 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 9 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 12 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 17 |
| Past employment | 6 | 15 | 23 | 19 | 11 |
| Expected employment | 10 | 18 | 21 | 27 | 19 |
| General outlook | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| Real estate activities (11 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 101 |
| Past activity | 7 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 17 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Expected demand | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Past employment | 3 | 5 | -1 | 5 | 0 |
| Expected employment | 3 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| General outlook | -4 | -3 | -4 | 0 | -6 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 107 |
| Past activity | -1 | 6 | 4 | 9 | -2 |
| Expected activity | -2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Expected demand | -5 | -3 | -1 | -2 | 2 |
| Past employment | 1 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 0 |
| Expected employment | 1 | 4 | 14 | 9 | 6 |
| General outlook | -8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18 %) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 109 | 101 | 100 | 102 |
| Past activity | 5 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 2 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 12 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| Past employment | 8 | 8 | 9 | -5 | -6 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 6 | -15 | -4 | 16 |
| General outlook | -3 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate indicator in services of August 2022 has been revised upwards by one point. This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.
For further information
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 August and 19 September 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 20 October 2022 at 8:45 am.
Documentation
Changes to business tendency surveys – October 2021 (pdf,181 Ko)
Abbreviated methodology (in French) (pdf,193 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The composite indicators of business climate presented here are estimated independently of one another. Thus, that of the whole services cannot be deduced from the others. The same balances of opinion are included into their calculations, but they are not assigned the same weightings. Also, the indicators are scaled to have a long-run average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. The climate series do not have the same historical beginning, so their standardisation differs slightly. Discrepancies may therefore appear from time to time.
For the three-modality questions, a balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the weighted percentage of “increase” responses and the weighted percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 August and 19 September 2022.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 20 October 2022 at 8:45 am.