Informations Rapides ·
24 May 2022 · n° 133
In May 2022, the business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated again Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - May 2022
According to the business managers surveyed in May 2022, the business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated again with respect to March. The composite indicator has lost four points and stands at 101, almost at its average (100). This new setback is mainly due to the decline in the balance of opinion related to the merchandise received from abroad.
- The opinion of business leaders on the volume of the merchandise received from abroad has dragged down the business climate
- The balances of opinion on ordering intentions have worsened
- The balances on selling prices have further increased
- Wholesalers cast a more favourable judgement on the recent change in their workforce, but a less favourable on its upcoming change
- The wholesalers’ opinion on their cash position has deteriorated
- Updates
- For further information
According to the business managers surveyed in May 2022, the business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated again with respect to March. The composite indicator has lost four points and stands at 101, almost at its average (100). This new setback is mainly due to the decline in the balance of opinion related to the merchandise received from abroad.
tableauComposite indicator
| Composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2022-B3 | 101.0 |
| 2022-B2 | 104.7 |
| 2022-B1 | 114.8 |
| 2021-B6 | 114.0 |
| 2021-B5 | 109.2 |
| 2021-B4 | 112.7 |
| 2021-B3 | 109.3 |
| 2021-B2 | 98.5 |
| 2021-B1 | 95.3 |
| 2020-B6 | 87.4 |
| 2020-B5 | 90.8 |
| 2020-B4 | 78.8 |
| 2020-B3 | 66.2 |
| 2020-B2 | 96.6 |
| 2020-B1 | 103.8 |
| 2019-B6 | 105.9 |
| 2019-B5 | 105.8 |
| 2019-B4 | 105.7 |
| 2019-B3 | 106.8 |
| 2019-B2 | 105.1 |
| 2019-B1 | 99.7 |
| 2018-B6 | 103.3 |
| 2018-B5 | 103.2 |
| 2018-B4 | 102.0 |
| 2018-B3 | 103.8 |
| 2018-B2 | 109.0 |
| 2018-B1 | 107.0 |
| 2017-B6 | 110.4 |
| 2017-B5 | 108.2 |
| 2017-B4 | 109.4 |
| 2017-B3 | 104.0 |
| 2017-B2 | 102.7 |
| 2017-B1 | 103.9 |
| 2016-B6 | 97.7 |
| 2016-B5 | 97.3 |
| 2016-B4 | 102.9 |
| 2016-B3 | 101.5 |
| 2016-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2016-B1 | 102.1 |
| 2015-B6 | 101.3 |
| 2015-B5 | 99.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 101.8 |
| 2015-B3 | 100.6 |
| 2015-B2 | 96.1 |
| 2015-B1 | 95.6 |
| 2014-B6 | 95.3 |
| 2014-B5 | 90.9 |
| 2014-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2014-B3 | 97.7 |
| 2014-B2 | 97.8 |
| 2014-B1 | 96.9 |
| 2013-B6 | 97.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 96.8 |
| 2013-B4 | 87.4 |
| 2013-B3 | 87.8 |
| 2013-B2 | 88.2 |
| 2013-B1 | 88.9 |
| 2012-B6 | 89.1 |
| 2012-B5 | 90.9 |
| 2012-B4 | 94.7 |
| 2012-B3 | 92.8 |
| 2012-B2 | 99.2 |
| 2012-B1 | 95.3 |
| 2011-B6 | 95.9 |
| 2011-B5 | 99.9 |
| 2011-B4 | 105.6 |
| 2011-B3 | 107.0 |
| 2011-B2 | 108.1 |
| 2011-B1 | 105.8 |
| 2010-B6 | 104.3 |
| 2010-B5 | 104.8 |
| 2010-B4 | 100.4 |
| 2010-B3 | 94.4 |
| 2010-B2 | 85.0 |
| 2010-B1 | 85.0 |
| 2009-B6 | 77.8 |
| 2009-B5 | 76.5 |
| 2009-B4 | 70.8 |
| 2009-B3 | 68.8 |
| 2009-B2 | 67.5 |
| 2009-B1 | 79.4 |
| 2008-B6 | 84.1 |
| 2008-B5 | 94.5 |
| 2008-B4 | 96.8 |
| 2008-B3 | 101.5 |
| 2008-B2 | 106.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 107.2 |
| 2007-B6 | 108.4 |
| 2007-B5 | 111.3 |
| 2007-B4 | 107.1 |
| 2007-B3 | 110.1 |
| 2007-B2 | 111.5 |
| 2007-B1 | 107.8 |
| 2006-B6 | 110.1 |
| 2006-B5 | 106.6 |
| 2006-B4 | 107.3 |
| 2006-B3 | 101.8 |
| 2006-B2 | 98.9 |
| 2006-B1 | 103.6 |
| 2005-B6 | 99.5 |
| 2005-B5 | 94.8 |
| 2005-B4 | 96.0 |
| 2005-B3 | 92.4 |
| 2005-B2 | 97.3 |
| 2005-B1 | 100.5 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
The opinion of business leaders on the volume of the merchandise received from abroad has dragged down the business climate
The balance of opinion of wholesalers regarding the volume of merchandise received over the past two months has bounced back very slightly, after a sharp decline in March, and now stands at its average. Conversely, the balance of opinion specific to the merchandise received from abroad has stepped back again and has gone below its average level.
The balance of opinion of wholesalers on the volume of their past sales has diminished a little bit but remains over its average. In contrast, the balance on the volume of recent sales made abroad has fallen distinctly again and has gone below its average. Both balances have fallen in the wholesale trade of food products and beverages and in the wholesale trade of household goods. Conversely, they have improved in the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products and in the “other specialised wholesale trades” (fuel, building materials, chemicals and the like).
The balances of opinion on ordering intentions have worsened
In May 2022, the balance of opinion of wholesalers on their ordering intentions has receded again in most sub-sectors of wholesale trade, except however in the “other specialised wholesale trades” where it has improved slightly. The balance of opinion related to ordering intentions to be made abroad has shrunk markedly too, following the same trend since January 2022. This balance has diminished in every sub-sectors of wholesale trade. Both balances of opinion related to ordering intentions remain nevertheless higher than their average.
After having already plummeted between January and March 2022, the balance of opinion on the general business outlook has fallen again and has slipped below its average level. This dip extends to all sub-sectors except to the wholesale trade of food products and beverages.
The balances on selling prices have further increased
The balances of opinion on the past and expected change in the selling prices of wholesalers have further increased, reaching levels unseen since 1982.
tableauExpected prices in wholesale trade
| Expected prices | |
|---|---|
| 2022-B3 | 54.6 |
| 2022-B2 | 50.4 |
| 2022-B1 | 34.1 |
| 2021-B6 | 38.3 |
| 2021-B5 | 30.6 |
| 2021-B4 | 32.1 |
| 2021-B3 | 29.2 |
| 2021-B2 | 20.3 |
| 2021-B1 | 7.5 |
| 2020-B6 | -4.9 |
| 2020-B5 | 1.6 |
| 2020-B4 | 1.2 |
| 2020-B3 | -1.2 |
| 2020-B2 | 0.3 |
| 2020-B1 | 6.9 |
| 2019-B6 | 7.1 |
| 2019-B5 | 1.2 |
| 2019-B4 | 2.2 |
| 2019-B3 | 4.2 |
| 2019-B2 | 4.9 |
| 2019-B1 | 6.6 |
| 2018-B6 | 9.6 |
| 2018-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2018-B4 | 8.3 |
| 2018-B3 | 7.5 |
| 2018-B2 | 13.5 |
| 2018-B1 | 8.6 |
| 2017-B6 | 11.8 |
| 2017-B5 | 2.0 |
| 2017-B4 | 3.9 |
| 2017-B3 | 4.0 |
| 2017-B2 | 5.8 |
| 2017-B1 | 10.7 |
| 2016-B6 | 2.4 |
| 2016-B5 | -2.8 |
| 2016-B4 | 0.1 |
| 2016-B3 | -0.9 |
| 2016-B2 | -3.4 |
| 2016-B1 | -5.7 |
| 2015-B6 | -1.4 |
| 2015-B5 | -8.2 |
| 2015-B4 | 2.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2015-B2 | -0.4 |
| 2015-B1 | -6.7 |
| 2014-B6 | -10.7 |
| 2014-B5 | -8.7 |
| 2014-B4 | -4.2 |
| 2014-B3 | -0.8 |
| 2014-B2 | 2.1 |
| 2014-B1 | 6.0 |
| 2013-B6 | 0.5 |
| 2013-B5 | 0.3 |
| 2013-B4 | -3.9 |
| 2013-B3 | -3.2 |
| 2013-B2 | -2.2 |
| 2013-B1 | 5.1 |
| 2012-B6 | 5.5 |
| 2012-B5 | 11.3 |
| 2012-B4 | 8.9 |
| 2012-B3 | 6.0 |
| 2012-B2 | 11.7 |
| 2012-B1 | 11.0 |
| 2011-B6 | 14.2 |
| 2011-B5 | 6.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 11.9 |
| 2011-B3 | 19.8 |
| 2011-B2 | 24.6 |
| 2011-B1 | 22.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 8.7 |
| 2010-B5 | 11.5 |
| 2010-B4 | 8.6 |
| 2010-B3 | 5.1 |
| 2010-B2 | 0.2 |
| 2010-B1 | -3.9 |
graphiqueExpected prices in wholesale trade
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
Wholesalers cast a more favourable judgement on the recent change in their workforce, but a less favourable on its upcoming change
The balance of opinion on the change in workforce size over the last two months has recovered distinctly and has pulled away from its average. Conversely, the balance on the expected change in workforce size has withdrawn, after having increased since January 2021 and having reached in March a level unprecedented since the beginning of this series (1979).
The wholesalers’ opinion on their cash position has deteriorated
The balance of opinion of wholesalers related to their cash position has stepped down markedly and has slipped under its average. This balance had reached in July 2021 its highest historical level. The fall in this balance extends to all sub-sectors of wholesale trade.
Finally, the balance on the level of inventories has somewhat diminished and remains below its average: slightly fewer wholesalers than in March consider that the level of their stocks is above average.
Updates
The business climate in wholesale trade of March 2022 has not been updated.
tableauWholesale trade sectors
| Ave* | Nov-21 | Jan-22 | March-22 | May-22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicators | 100 | 114 | 115 | 105 | 101 |
| General business outlook | -22 | 15 | -2 | -22 | -25 |
| Sales | -14 | 5 | 6 | -6 | -8 |
| export sales | -15 | 0 | 0 | -10 | -16 |
| Received merchandise | -9 | 2 | 4 | -10 | -9 |
| received from abroad | -10 | -6 | 5 | -10 | -15 |
| Ordering intentions | -15 | 5 | -1 | -5 | -9 |
| ordering from abroad | -15 | 6 | 0 | -7 | -13 |
| Shipments abroad | -15 | -6 | -6 | -13 | -19 |
| Stocks | 8 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Past workforce | -1 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| Expected workforce | -2 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| Cash position | -9 | -1 | -1 | -3 | -10 |
| Past selling prices | 8 | 41 | 40 | 45 | 51 |
| Expected selling prices | 15 | 38 | 34 | 50 | 55 |
- *: average since july 1979
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
tableauWholesale trade sectors
| Ave* | Nov-21 | Jan-22 | March-22 | May-22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | -13 | 5 | -2 | -8 | -3 |
| Export sales | -16 | -3 | -10 | -29 | -13 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -10 | -8 | -21 | -20 | -33 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -3 | -6 | -13 | -19 |
| Current stock | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | -15 | -14 | -8 | -21 | -27 |
| Export sales | -12 | -12 | -4 | -25 | -31 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -17 | -8 | -18 | -33 |
| Ordering intentions | -11 | -8 | -8 | -15 | -20 |
| Current stocks | 4 | -6 | -3 | -7 | -13 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | -10 | -3 | 12 | 3 | -8 |
| Export sales | -11 | 4 | -3 | 3 | -8 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | -12 | 4 | -1 | -7 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | 4 | 3 | -3 | -4 |
| Current stock | 12 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 17 |
| Information and communication equipment | |||||
| Sales | -8 | 11 | 7 | -4 | 9 |
| Export sales | -12 | 21 | 37 | -5 | -38 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | 12 | 18 | -39 | -27 |
| Ordering intentions | -9 | 20 | 4 | -6 | -13 |
| Current stock | 8 | -25 | -11 | 4 | 0 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | -16 | 3 | 11 | -12 | -11 |
| Export sales | -21 | -13 | -12 | -14 | -25 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -21 | 1 | -18 | -19 |
| Ordering intentions | -21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | -10 |
| Current stock | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | -17 | 26 | 17 | 1 | 4 |
| Export sales | -19 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -12 | 1 | 23 | 3 | 2 |
| Ordering intentions | -18 | 13 | -2 | -2 | 0 |
| Current stock | 6 | 9 | 17 | 10 | 6 |
- *: average since july 1979
- Source: INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
tableauPast activity (sales) in capital goods
| Capital goods in information and communication | Other industrial capital goods | |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-B3 | 8.7 | -11.3 |
| 2022-B2 | -3.6 | -11.5 |
| 2022-B1 | 6.6 | 11.5 |
| 2021-B6 | 10.6 | 2.9 |
| 2021-B5 | 14.2 | -0.6 |
| 2021-B4 | 29.8 | 14.5 |
| 2021-B3 | 32.7 | 13.4 |
| 2021-B2 | 19.6 | -3.0 |
| 2021-B1 | 0.3 | -19.8 |
| 2020-B6 | 9.3 | -31.2 |
| 2020-B5 | 10.3 | -28.6 |
| 2020-B4 | -54.4 | -56.0 |
| 2020-B3 | -54.9 | -84.6 |
| 2020-B2 | -6.6 | -14.1 |
| 2020-B1 | -18.1 | -9.2 |
| 2019-B6 | -6.7 | -4.8 |
| 2019-B5 | -1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2019-B4 | -18.1 | -4.1 |
| 2019-B3 | 11.6 | -1.3 |
| 2019-B2 | 18.2 | -3.4 |
| 2019-B1 | -20.3 | -15.2 |
| 2018-B6 | 4.4 | -9.4 |
| 2018-B5 | 11.7 | -7.2 |
| 2018-B4 | 10.1 | -7.8 |
| 2018-B3 | 2.1 | -5.2 |
| 2018-B2 | -0.6 | 1.3 |
| 2018-B1 | -12.0 | 8.9 |
| 2017-B6 | -8.4 | 8.9 |
| 2017-B5 | -2.9 | -2.2 |
| 2017-B4 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2017-B3 | -6.2 | -7.0 |
| 2017-B2 | -7.5 | -12.4 |
| 2017-B1 | -7.3 | -15.4 |
| 2016-B6 | -12.9 | -19.2 |
| 2016-B5 | -5.1 | -24.9 |
| 2016-B4 | 1.6 | -16.9 |
| 2016-B3 | -10.1 | -17.6 |
| 2016-B2 | -1.4 | -21.6 |
| 2016-B1 | 1.4 | -17.7 |
| 2015-B6 | -9.1 | -27.8 |
| 2015-B5 | -4.8 | -25.0 |
| 2015-B4 | -1.6 | -22.3 |
| 2015-B3 | 4.3 | -28.8 |
| 2015-B2 | -8.9 | -33.1 |
| 2015-B1 | -11.6 | -35.2 |
| 2014-B6 | -10.4 | -38.5 |
| 2014-B5 | -25.3 | -41.2 |
| 2014-B4 | -7.5 | -38.8 |
| 2014-B3 | -14.1 | -27.4 |
| 2014-B2 | -15.8 | -20.1 |
| 2014-B1 | -27.5 | -27.4 |
| 2013-B6 | -12.7 | -25.7 |
| 2013-B5 | -18.0 | -30.9 |
| 2013-B4 | -37.0 | -38.3 |
| 2013-B3 | -17.6 | -38.0 |
| 2013-B2 | -13.7 | -33.8 |
| 2013-B1 | -36.3 | -41.1 |
| 2012-B6 | -31.0 | -36.8 |
| 2012-B5 | -17.4 | -28.3 |
| 2012-B4 | -20.7 | -30.0 |
| 2012-B3 | -23.3 | -28.9 |
| 2012-B2 | -17.2 | -15.6 |
| 2012-B1 | -11.5 | -11.7 |
| 2011-B6 | -28.6 | -12.8 |
| 2011-B5 | -7.8 | -0.1 |
| 2011-B4 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 2011-B3 | 1.2 | 6.5 |
| 2011-B2 | -12.4 | 1.7 |
| 2011-B1 | 15.3 | -16.9 |
| 2010-B6 | 19.0 | -18.1 |
| 2010-B5 | 18.6 | -16.2 |
| 2010-B4 | 31.2 | -32.9 |
| 2010-B3 | 0.3 | -40.4 |
| 2010-B2 | -37.2 | -57.6 |
| 2010-B1 | -12.8 | -56.3 |
| 2009-B6 | -21.4 | -68.1 |
| 2009-B5 | -57.6 | -70.2 |
| 2009-B4 | -61.3 | -70.0 |
| 2009-B3 | -63.2 | -67.9 |
| 2009-B2 | -61.5 | -74.3 |
| 2009-B1 | -32.1 | -56.6 |
| 2008-B6 | -16.2 | -35.3 |
| 2008-B5 | -11.9 | -20.9 |
| 2008-B4 | -5.4 | -14.3 |
| 2008-B3 | 3.5 | -3.6 |
| 2008-B2 | -6.6 | 4.4 |
| 2008-B1 | -23.1 | 5.5 |
graphiquePast activity (sales) in capital goods
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
For further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.
Since the May 2020 survey, the way of correcting missing answers has been modified. The usual method was to fill them in by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 April 2022 and 19 May 2022.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 21 July 2022 at 8:45 am.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.
Since the May 2020 survey, the way of correcting missing answers has been modified. The usual method was to fill them in by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Answers to this survey have been gathered between 27 April 2022 and 19 May 2022.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 21 July 2022 at 8:45 am.
Time series : Wholesale trade