Informations Rapides · 29 April 2022 · n° 111

GDP stagnated in Q1 2022 (0.0%) Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - first quarter 2022

GDP stagnated in Q1 2022 (0.0% quarter on quarter after +0.8%) in connection with the weakness of the domestic demand: Households’ consumption expenditure sharply decreased (-1.3% after +0,6%) while gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) slightly decelerated (+0.2% after +0.3%). Finally, internal demand excluding inventory changes contributed to -0.6 points to GDP growth, after +0.5 points in the previous quarter.

Foreign trade, although slowing down, continued to progress. The increase was more marked on the export side (+1.5% after +3.5%) than on the import side (+1.1% after +3.2%). Thereby, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was slightly positive this quarter: +0.1 points after +0.0 in the previous quarter.

At last, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was positive again this quarter (+0.4 points after +0.3 points in Q4 2021).

Total production (goods and services) slowed down in the first quarter: +0.5% after +1.0% in the last quarter.

This slowdown was mainly driven by the production of market services (+0.4% after +1.8%), specifically in the hotel and restaurant services (-4.0% after +1.2% in the previous quarter), likely due to the Covid-19 epidemic resurgence in the first quarter (increase in remote working, decrease in the number of visitors to establishments, etc.). Conversely, production in the information and communication services continued to rise (+1.9% after +2.0%). Production of business services grew at a more moderate pace than in Q4 2021 (+0.8% after +1.4%). Finally, production of non-market services slightly recovered (+0.3% after -0.1%), in particular in health care in line with the increased number of Covid-19 cases – which reduced in turn the volume of education services because of school closures. Production in construction decelerated for the third consecutive quarter (+0.3% after +0.5%).

Production of goods was relatively more dynamic this quarter (+1.1%) after two consecutive quarters of stability. Production of manufacturing branches rose sharply (+2.2% after +0.2%), in particular for the other manufactured products (pharmacy, metallurgy, chemistry, etc.). Conversely, production in energy, water and waste declined significantly again this quarter (-2.6% after -1.3%), specifically in the production of electricity.

Households’ consumption expenditure sharply declined this quarter (-1.3% after +0.6% in the previous quarter).

Consumption dropped significantly in hotel and restaurant services (-5.3% after +0.9%). Likewise, purchases of goods fell sharply (-1.7% after +0.1%), notably for clothing and textiles. On the other hand, consumption slowed down in transport services (+1.9% after +8.4%) and in services to households (+0.5% after +3.3%).

GFCF increased overall in Q1 2022 (+0.2% after +0.3%), mainly driven by information and communication services (+3.4% after +2.8%) and equipment goods (+4.5% after -1.2%). Conversely, GFCF in transport equipments fell again significantly this quarter (-7.8% after -5.7%), while it slightly decreased in construction (-0.2% after +0.7%).

The recovery in foreign trade continued, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous quarter. Exports (+1.5% after +3.5%) grew more than imports (+1.1% after +3.2%). In particular, transport equipment exports jumped in the first quarter (+9.2% after -0.7%) due to the delivery of a cruise ship. Conversely, exports of other manufactured goods declined (-1.2% after +4.0%), while exports of energy, water and waste (-15.2% after +4.9%) and refined oil (-18.1% after +7.2%) dropped sharply.

Imports were driven by energy, water and waste (+17.3% after +1.8%), especially crude oil and electricity, other manufactured goods (+2.7% after +2.4%) and transport services (+8.6% after +5.2%). Conversely, refined oil imports fell significantly (-26.3% after +16.1%). Overall, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was slightly positive this quarter (+0.1 points after a zero contribution in the previous quarter).

The contribution of inventory changes was reduced in transport equipment – due in particular to the delivery of the cruise ship – but rose sharply for other goods (food products and beverages, crude oil and gas, other manufactured products).

The GDP growth estimate for Q4 2021 is revised upwards by +0.1 points, and stood at +0.8%. The GDP growth is also revised upwards for Q2 2021 (+0.1 points, rounded up to +0.2 points) and downwards for Q3 2021 (-0.1 points). This revision is due to the integration of new data, and to the revision of existing indicators. Agents’ accounts now integrate the accounts of public administrations, published at the end of March. The quarterly national accounts may be revised on the next release (May, 31th), as a result of the integration of the annual accounts (2019 definitive, 2020 semi-definitive and 2021 provisory), released at the same time. Furthermore, annual improvements of statistical procedures will also be integrated to the next release of QNA, which may also induce revisions. Furthermore, the production of quarterly accounts will be switched to a new computing application at the same time. Some estimation methods have been improved on this occasion, especcially adjustment for working days and seasonal variations. Revisions might therefore be a little more important than usual.