Informations Rapides · 24 March 2022 · n° 77

In March 2022, the business climate in wholesale trade has strongly deteriorated Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - March 2022

According to the business managers surveyed in March 2022, the business climate in wholesale trade has strongly deteriorated with respect to January. The composite indicator has lost ten points and stands at 105. This setback is mainly due to the drop in the balances of opinion related to received merchandise from abroad and to the volume of past sales, balances which had nevertheless improved during the last months. The forward-looking balances of opinion (ordering intentions and general business outlook), already declining in January, have worsened again. In particular, the general business outlook has fallen steeply.

The balance of opinion of wholesalers regarding the volume of merchandise received over the past two months has stepped back very clearly and stands at a level close to its average. Equally, the balance of opinion specific to the merchandise received from abroad has folded back strongly and found back its average level. The decline in both these balances is observed in all sub-sectors of wholesale trade, except in the one of raw agricultural products where the balance on the merchandise received from abroad has been almost stable.

The balances of opinion of wholesalers on their recent activity (volume of past sales and of export sales) have withdrawn very clearly, although they remain above their respective averages. These falls encompass almost all sub-sectors of wholesale trade, but the wholesale trade of household goods where the balance on export sales has improved.

In March 2022, the balance of opinion of wholesalers on their ordering intentions has receded significantly again, in all sub-sectors of wholesale trade. Likewise, the balance of opinion related to the ordering intentions from abroad has declined clearly again. Every sub-sectors is involved in this decline, expect the one of household goods. Both balances of opinion related to ordering intentions remain nevertheless higher than their average.

After having already strongly fallen between November and January, the balance of opinion on the general business outlook has plummeted and has reached in March its average level. This dip extends to all sub-sectors.

The balances of opinion on the past and expected change in the selling prices of wholesalers have bounced back sharply. They have reached levels unseen since the 1980s.

The balance of opinion on the change in workforce size over the last two months has declined distinctly but remains above its average. Conversely, the balance on the expected change in workforce size has further improved, as it has been for more than a year, thus reaching a level unprecedented since the beginning of this series (1979).

The balance of opinion of wholesalers related to their cash position has folded back slightly but remains at a high level. This balance had reached in July 2021 its highest historical level. The fall in this balance in March extends to all sub-sectors of wholesale trade, outside the trade of “other industrial capital goods”.

Finally, the balance on the level of inventories has somewhat risen again: more wholesalers than in January consider that the level of their stocks is above average.

The business climate in wholesale trade of January 2022 has been updated upwards by two points due to the late inclusion of answers from companies.