Informations Rapides · 28 January 2022 · n° 25

GDP increased by +0.7% in Q4 2021. On average in 2021, it increased by 7.0% (after -8.0% in 2020). Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - fourth quarter 2021

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a more moderate pace in Q4 2021 (+0.7% after +3.1%) after the strong increase recorded in Q3 with the reopenings in several sectors of activity. After returning to its pre-crisis level in the previous quarter (+0.2% compared to Q4 2019), GDP exceeded it significantly in Q4 (+0.9% compared to Q4 2019).

The various contributions to GDP growth were more homogeneous this quarter. Final domestic demand (excluding inventories) contributed to +0.5 points, after +3.6 points in the previous quarter: in particular, the growth rate of household consumption expenditure (+0.4% after +5.6% in Q3 2021) was similar to that of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF, +0.5% after +0.1%).

Foreign trade, still catching up, grew faster than domestic demand. The increase was more marked on the side of imports (+3.6% after +0.8%) than exports (+3.2% after +1.7%). Thus, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was slightly negative this quarter: -0.2 points, after +0.2 points in the previous quarter. Finally, the contribution of inventory changes to GDP growth was positive this quarter (+0.4 points after -0.7 points in Q3 2021).

On average over 2021, GDP increased by +7.0% after -8.0% in 2020. The average level of GDP in 2021 was thus 1.6% below its average level in 2019. This first estimate of the annual aggregates, by sum of the four quarters, will be consolidated when the 2021 provisional annual account will be published at the end of May 2022.

Total production of goods and services grew vigorously in Q4 2021: +0.9%, after +2.9% in Q3. In particular, the pace of the production in market services remained strong (+1.6% after +5.0%). The slowdown in the pace of growth in services was largely mechanical, after the rebound in the second and the third quarter with the reopenings in several sectors of activity. Thus, the production in hotel and restaurant services stabilised this quarter (+0.4% after +44.5% in Q3 2021), while the production growth in IT services remained vigorous (+2.9% after +3.0%), as in business services (+1.2% after +2.9%). The production in non-market services returned to a more moderate pace (+0.3% after +1.4%). Production in construction decreased for the second quarter in a row (-0.6% after -0.3%).

The production of goods appeared relatively more moderate: +0.2% after 0.0%. The production of the manufacturing branches rebounded slightly (+0.3% after -0.5%), while the production of energy, water and waste decreased by 0.1%.

On average over 2021, total production of goods and services increased by +7.4% after -8.5% in 2020 and was thus 1.7% below its average level in 2019. Goods production was clearly down on an annual average (-5.6% compared to 2019), especially in transport equipment (-27,2% compared to 2019), while services production was much closer to its pre-crisis average level (-0.5% compared to 2019).

Household consumption expenditure remained strong this quarter (+0.4% after +5.6% in Q3 2021), despite the mechanical slowdown following the reopenings in the second and third quarters.

Consumption in hotel and restaurant services remained steady (+0.0% after +59.9%, -1.8% from Q4 2019) while consumption in transport services, still far below its pre-crisis level (-15.9% from Q4 2019), continued to catch up (+5.7% after +46.1%). Overall, household consumption was back to its pre-crisis level (+0.0% from Q4 2019).

Over the year 2021, the rebound in household consumption appeared more limited than that of production: +4.8% after -7.2% in 2020. Over the year 2021, household consumption was thus on average 2.7% lower than its 2019 level, reflecting a health situation that particularly weighed on consumption in the first half of 2021.

Total GFCF showed a contrasted situation: even if it accelerated globally in Q4 2021 (+0.5%, after +0.1%), it was mainly driven by GFCF in market services (+2.3% after +1.9%), especially in IT services (+3,9% after +2,8%). On the contrary, GFCF in manufactured goods (-1.2% after -2.2%) and in construction (-0.4%, after -0.5%) fell for the second consecutive quarter,

Over the year 2021, total GFCF recovered strongly: +11.6% after -8.9% in 2020. It was thus 1.7% above its average 2019 level, especially in market services (+9.1% compared to its average 2019 level).

The recovery of foreign trade accelerated in Q4, more on the import side (+3.6% after +0.8%) than on the export side (+3.2% after +1.7%). In particular, imports of transport equipment rebounded sharply (+8.8% after -6.9%), while exports were driven by transport services (+13.6% after -9.4%), especially maritime, and other industrial products (+2.7% after -0.6%). Trade linked to international tourism continued to recover, particularly on the export side (+17.3%, against +7.7% for imports). Overall, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was negative this quarter (-0.2 points, after +0.2 points in the previous quarter).

Over the year 2021, the contribution of foreign trade to GDP growth was slightly positive (+0.2 points after -1.1 points in 2020). Over the year 2021, exports and imports remained at a particularly low level and were respectively 8.5% and 5.5% below their average level in 2019.

Inventory changes, particularly in transport equipment, contributed positively to GDP growth this quarter (+0.4 points, after -0.7 points in Q3 2021). Over the year 2021, inventory changes contributed by -0.1 points to GDP growth.

The GDP growth estimate was revised upwards by 0.1 points for each of the first three quarters of the year (+0.1%, +1.3% and +3.1%, the first two rounded figures staying unchanged). This revision was due to the integration of new data and to the revision of existing indicators.