Informations Rapides ·
26 October 2021 · n° 278In October 2021, the opinion of the business managers in civil engineering on their
expected activity has improved again Quaterly survey of public works - October 2021
In October 2021, the business managers in civil engineering are much more upbeat about their expected activity than they were last July, but also more pessimistic about their past activity.
In October 2021, the business managers in civil engineering are much more upbeat about their expected activity than they were last July, but also more pessimistic about their past activity.
The business managers are much more optimistic than in July about their expected activity
In October 2021, more business managers than in July have indicated an increase in their expected activity for the next three months. The balance of opinion has risen for the fourth consecutive quarter. It stands now well above its long-term average.
In detail, the two balances of opinion about the past activity for public and private sector clients have increased and stand well above their long-term averages.
On the other hand, considering the last three months, the opinion of the business managers on their past activity has deteriorated markedly: the balance of opinion on recent activity has decreased sharply, returning below its long-term average. In particular, the balance for private customers has slipped back sharply, although it remains above its long-term average. The one for public customers has decreased even more strongly: it has fallen back to its last April level, thereby returning below its average.
Overall, more business managers than in the previous quarter find it difficult to predict the future development in their business situation. The corresponding balance has rebounded in October 2021.
More business managers consider their order books well filled
In October 2021, more business managers than in July have considered that the level of their order book is higher than normal for the season: the corresponding balance of opinion has increased for the fifth consecutive quarter. It stands well above its long-term average.
The lack of manpower is more strongly felt
In October 2021, the obstacles to production due to a lack of staff have grown. 37% of the companies have reported to be hampered by a lack of manpower; they were a third in July. This proportion, higher than its long-term average (17%), remains however lower than its level before crisis (above 40%).
Employment prospects keep improving
In October 2021, markedly more business managers than in July have planned to increase their workforce size in the next three months. The corresponding balance has increased for the fourth consecutive quarter and stands well above its long-term average. It has come closer to its pre-crisis level.
tableauPublic works economic outlook
Mean.* | Jan. 21 | Apr. 21 | July 21 | Oct. 21 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Past activity | -5 | -7 | -7 | 20 | -11 |
- public-sector project | -11 | -22 | -17 | 8 | -17 |
- private-sector project | -9 | -5 | -5 | 15 | -3 |
Expected activity | -12 | -19 | -10 | 1 | 12 |
- public-sector project | -16 | -31 | -23 | -4 | 12 |
- private-sector project | -14 | -17 | -8 | -3 | 16 |
Opinion on order books | -24 | -33 | -22 | -19 | -8 |
Obstacles to production increase because of workforce shortage (in %) | 17 | 20 | 27 | 33 | 37 |
Expected workforce | -12 | -5 | 6 | 8 | 15 |
Economic uncertainty felt | 18 | 30 | 6 | 17 |
- Note: the balances of opinion by costumer may differ from the balance of the whole, because sometimes the firms don't distinguish public-sector project and private-sector project.
- * Mean since January 1981 and since April 2021 for the balances of opinion on the economic uncertainty felt.
- NA: not available
- Source: French business survey, building crafts sector – INSEE and FNTP
tableauActivity tendency in civil engineering
Past activity | Expected activity | |
---|---|---|
2007-Q1 | 39.0 | 16.9 |
2007-Q2 | 39.7 | 21.5 |
2007-Q3 | 36.2 | 13.9 |
2007-Q4 | 22.8 | 14.6 |
2008-Q1 | 20.1 | 2.7 |
2008-Q2 | 16.3 | -16.0 |
2008-Q3 | -10.8 | -26.0 |
2008-Q4 | -30.5 | -47.6 |
2009-Q1 | -55.3 | -50.6 |
2009-Q2 | -48.8 | -52.0 |
2009-Q3 | -50.5 | -34.0 |
2009-Q4 | -33.3 | -16.1 |
2010-Q1 | -23.1 | -16.7 |
2010-Q2 | -33.7 | -20.5 |
2010-Q3 | -15.9 | -23.9 |
2010-Q4 | -7.9 | -17.9 |
2011-Q1 | -32.5 | 0.0 |
2011-Q2 | 36.8 | 2.3 |
2011-Q3 | 26.5 | 0.1 |
2011-Q4 | 8.6 | -4.3 |
2012-Q1 | 7.0 | -12.4 |
2012-Q2 | -12.9 | -6.8 |
2012-Q3 | -22.6 | -7.6 |
2012-Q4 | -9.8 | -26.5 |
2013-Q1 | -11.3 | -13.3 |
2013-Q2 | -18.4 | -13.5 |
2013-Q3 | -7.4 | -11.9 |
2013-Q4 | 3.3 | -15.6 |
2014-Q1 | -4.2 | -25.6 |
2014-Q2 | 4.2 | -30.4 |
2014-Q3 | -45.6 | -48.4 |
2014-Q4 | -60.3 | -54.5 |
2015-Q1 | -59.9 | -42.3 |
2015-Q2 | -50.2 | -43.5 |
2015-Q3 | -41.0 | -31.7 |
2015-Q4 | -37.5 | -15.0 |
2016-Q1 | -18.5 | -15.6 |
2016-Q2 | -16.8 | -15.4 |
2016-Q3 | -5.6 | -1.0 |
2016-Q4 | 9.4 | -5.5 |
2017-Q1 | 11.6 | 3.3 |
2017-Q2 | 28.8 | 19.5 |
2017-Q3 | 37.4 | 27.5 |
2017-Q4 | 29.3 | 32.5 |
2018-Q1 | 37.1 | 22.7 |
2018-Q2 | 29.4 | 32.3 |
2018-Q3 | 31.5 | 26.3 |
2018-Q4 | 38.4 | 28.6 |
2019-Q1 | 34.1 | 26.0 |
2019-Q2 | 39.1 | 22.0 |
2019-Q3 | 32.5 | 16.3 |
2019-Q4 | 23.0 | 13.8 |
2020-Q1 | 20.6 | -4.0 |
2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
2020-Q3 | -86.5 | 14.3 |
2020-Q4 | -4.0 | -25.2 |
2021-Q1 | -7.4 | -19.0 |
2021-Q2 | -7.2 | -10.2 |
2021-Q3 | 19.5 | 1.3 |
2021-Q4 | -11.0 | 11.8 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueActivity tendency in civil engineering
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 25 January 2022 at 12:00 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,123 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 25 January 2022 at 12:00 am