Informations Rapides · 23 September 2021 · n° 242

In September 2021, the business climate in wholesale trade has fallen back Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - September 2021

According to the business managers surveyed in September 2021, the business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated compared to July. The composite indicator has lost three points and stands at 110, well above its long-term average (100). Wholesalers are more negative than in July about their recent activity: in particular, the balance of opinion on received merchandise from abroad has fallen back sharply and has returned below its average. The balance of opinion relative to total sales has also fallen back, while remaining above its own. At the same time, however, the judgment of wholesalers on the export sales has improved markedly.

In September 2021, the balance of opinion of wholesalers on the development in their total sales over the last two months has fallen for the first time since July 2020, while remaining above its average. This decline concerns all sub-sectors; it is particularly marked for food products and beverages (after a very strong rebound in July) as well as for information and communication equipment.

However, wholesalers report good performance in their recent exports. The balance of opinion on export sales for the last two months has rebounded and reached its highest level since September 2007. This balance has increased particularly for raw agricultural products and “other specialized wholesale trade”, but it has clearly declined for food products and beverages as well as information and communication equipment.

The balance of opinion on received merchandise from abroad has gone down markedly, returning below its average. This decrease concerns all the wholesale trade sub-sectors, except that of food products and beverages, where the corresponding balance is stable at a low level.

The expectations of wholesalers remain fairly optimistic. Admittedly, the balance of opinion on the general business outlook has declined after four successive increases, but it remains well above its long-term average.

In September 2021, for the entire wholesale trade sector, the balance on total ordering intentions for the next two months has been virtually stable, well above its long-term average. Among the sub-sectors, this balance has increased markedly in the wholesaling of food and drink products; conversely, it has sharply dropped for information and communication equipment, while remaining well above its average.

Wholesalers consider the outlook for foreign trade to be rather favourable. Thus, the balance of opinion of ordering from abroad has rebounded, while the balance of ordering intentions from abroad has been stable. These two balances stand well above their average.

The balance of opinion on the expected change in workforce size has continued to increase, as it has done since January, and has returned to its levels of 2018. This increase concerns all the sub-sectors analysed, with the exception of the wholesale trade in food products and beverages where this balance has sharply dropped.

The balance of opinion regarding the past change in workforce size has declined after reaching in July a level not seen since 2001, but it remains above its average.

After reaching their highest level in July 2021 since the mid-1980s, the balances of opinion on past and expected selling prices have declined slightly in September 2021. Both remain well above of their long-term average.

The balance of opinion on the cash flow situation has fallen back slightly, however it remains close to its record level of July 2021.

The business climate indicator in wholesale trade of July 2021 has been revised upwards by one point, as a result of the integration of belated business answers.