Insee
Informations Rapides · 23 September 2021 · n° 243
Informations rapidesIn September 2021, the business climate has improved slightly in servicesMonthly survey of services - September 2021

According to the business managers surveyed in September 2021, the business climate has improved slightly in services. At 110, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has regained one point after two months of slight decline and remains well above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides
No 243
Paru le : Paru le 23/09/2021
Prochaine parution le : 21/10/2021 at 08:45 - October 2021

According to the business managers surveyed in September 2021, the business climate has improved slightly in services. At 110, the business climate indicator that synthetizes it has regained one point after two months of slight decline and remains well above its long-term average (100).

Business climate composite indicator

Business climate composite indicator
Business climate composite indicator
2005-01 106.8
2005-02 106.6
2005-03 108.5
2005-04 108.2
2005-05 106.3
2005-06 108.5
2005-07 107.9
2005-08 107.6
2005-09 107.2
2005-10 108.7
2005-11 106.6
2005-12 107.0
2006-01 108.8
2006-02 106.5
2006-03 107.8
2006-04 108.0
2006-05 110.6
2006-06 109.3
2006-07 110.4
2006-08 110.5
2006-09 110.7
2006-10 110.9
2006-11 113.1
2006-12 111.5
2007-01 111.0
2007-02 112.3
2007-03 113.3
2007-04 113.0
2007-05 112.9
2007-06 112.6
2007-07 113.1
2007-08 112.3
2007-09 111.5
2007-10 110.2
2007-11 110.4
2007-12 109.3
2008-01 110.6
2008-02 108.9
2008-03 108.9
2008-04 107.4
2008-05 105.0
2008-06 102.0
2008-07 97.8
2008-08 96.4
2008-09 94.5
2008-10 86.2
2008-11 82.2
2008-12 79.2
2009-01 76.7
2009-02 75.5
2009-03 70.5
2009-04 70.6
2009-05 74.5
2009-06 79.0
2009-07 82.5
2009-08 85.1
2009-09 88.2
2009-10 91.3
2009-11 92.6
2009-12 93.1
2010-01 94.5
2010-02 94.7
2010-03 95.0
2010-04 98.0
2010-05 99.6
2010-06 98.7
2010-07 99.5
2010-08 101.0
2010-09 102.0
2010-10 103.2
2010-11 105.0
2010-12 107.0
2011-01 107.2
2011-02 109.4
2011-03 110.6
2011-04 109.3
2011-05 108.0
2011-06 107.5
2011-07 105.4
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 99.1
2011-10 98.0
2011-11 95.9
2011-12 95.6
2012-01 93.7
2012-02 93.1
2012-03 94.5
2012-04 96.4
2012-05 92.9
2012-06 91.0
2012-07 90.6
2012-08 88.5
2012-09 88.3
2012-10 87.1
2012-11 86.5
2012-12 88.1
2013-01 89.1
2013-02 87.9
2013-03 85.2
2013-04 84.3
2013-05 85.7
2013-06 86.9
2013-07 87.4
2013-08 89.3
2013-09 92.8
2013-10 92.3
2013-11 93.0
2013-12 91.6
2014-01 92.9
2014-02 92.7
2014-03 93.6
2014-04 93.9
2014-05 92.8
2014-06 92.9
2014-07 93.2
2014-08 92.3
2014-09 91.7
2014-10 92.0
2014-11 91.9
2014-12 91.9
2015-01 91.8
2015-02 92.1
2015-03 92.9
2015-04 94.5
2015-05 95.9
2015-06 97.3
2015-07 97.9
2015-08 99.0
2015-09 98.0
2015-10 99.9
2015-11 99.7
2015-12 97.5
2016-01 100.4
2016-02 100.3
2016-03 99.9
2016-04 98.7
2016-05 101.0
2016-06 99.5
2016-07 100.7
2016-08 100.5
2016-09 101.1
2016-10 101.0
2016-11 101.1
2016-12 103.7
2017-01 101.9
2017-02 103.1
2017-03 103.5
2017-04 103.4
2017-05 102.8
2017-06 103.6
2017-07 104.0
2017-08 106.2
2017-09 106.6
2017-10 106.8
2017-11 107.5
2017-12 108.7
2018-01 107.8
2018-02 106.8
2018-03 106.8
2018-04 106.0
2018-05 104.3
2018-06 104.7
2018-07 104.6
2018-08 104.2
2018-09 104.6
2018-10 103.5
2018-11 103.9
2018-12 102.3
2019-01 103.8
2019-02 103.9
2019-03 104.9
2019-04 105.7
2019-05 105.7
2019-06 105.9
2019-07 105.3
2019-08 105.2
2019-09 105.8
2019-10 105.9
2019-11 106.4
2019-12 106.7
2020-01 106.3
2020-02 106.2
2020-03 93.1
2020-04 41.8
2020-05 51.8
2020-06 78.1
2020-07 88.9
2020-08 93.7
2020-09 94.5
2020-10 88.9
2020-11 78.1
2020-12 90.1
2021-01 91.5
2021-02 88.6
2021-03 93.9
2021-04 91.7
2021-05 106.5
2021-06 111.9
2021-07 111.0
2021-08 108.7
2021-09 110.1

Business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

The business managers have raised their expectations

In September 2021, the business leaders' expectations are more optimistic than in the previous month. The balances of opinion on the general outlook for the sector activity and on the expected activity for the next three months have recovered slightly; the one on expected demand for the next three months has also rebounded. These three balances stand thus well above their respective averages and have virtually returned to their July 2021 levels.

The balance of opinion on activity over the past three months is virtually stable above its average.

The balance of opinion on the recent change in selling prices is also virtually stable, above its average level. The one on the expected change in selling prices has decreased slightly but remains also above its average.

About employment, the balance of opinion on the change in workforce size over the last three months has decreased sharply and has returned below its average level. However, the balance on expected workforce size has increased and has further exceeded its average.

The balance of opinion on investment over the past three months is stable and therefore remains slightly below its average, whereas the one on expected investment is virtually stable and slightly above its average.

Economic outlook in the services sector

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Economic outlook in the services sector (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Average* June 2021 July 2021 Aug. 2021 Sep. 2021
Composite indicator 100 112 111 109 110
General outlook -7 12 9 6 8
Past activity 1 3 8 10 11
Expected activity 1 11 11 8 10
Expected demand -1 17 11 7 10
Past selling prices -4 -4 1 1 0
Expected selling prices -3 1 5 4 2
Past employment 2 -1 3 3 -2
except temporary work agencies 0 -7 0 2 -5
Expected employment 2 8 6 6 9
except temporary work agencies -1 6 6 5 7
Investments
Past investments 1 3 2 -1 -1
Expected investments 1 0 -1 2 3
  • * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion, except general outlook (since June 2000)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

The business climate has improved in most service sub-sectors, except in accommodation and food services and in real estate activities

In September 2021, the business climate has improved in most service activities, but has deteriorated in accommodation and food services and in real estate activities.

In road freight transport, the business climate has improved again, more strongly than in August, and has further exceeded its average. It has recovered its June level. Indeed, the forward-looking balances of this sub-sector have increased strongly.

In professional, scientific and technical activities and in administrative and support services, the business climate has improved sharply and stands well above its average. Indeed, the balances on expected demand have increased sharply in these two sub-sectors.

In information-communication, the business climate has improved slightly again. It therefore remains above its average.

Conversely, in accommodation and food services, the business climate has deteriorated for the second month in a row. Indeed, the balances on expected demand and on the general outlook have decreased markedly. Nevertheless, the climate remains well above its long-term average. In real estate activities, the business climate indicator has decreased sharply but remains also well above its average level.

Revision

The business climate indicator of August 2021 has been revised upwards by one point. This revision is mainly due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.

Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services

Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted
Business climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services (Balances of opinion, in %, seasonally adjusted)
Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 Mean* June 2021 July 2021 Aug. 2021 Sep. 2021
Road transport (8%)
Composite indicator 100 112 105 107 112
Past activity -6 10 13 9 -7
Expected activity -7 12 -3 3 13
Expected demand -9 17 -4 4 17
Past employment -6 -4 -3 -8 0
Expected employment -7 2 1 0 10
General outlook -18 12 -1 -2 6
Accommodation and food service activities (11%)
Composite indicator 100 127 129 114 109
Past activity -8 -19 3 27 29
Expected activity -8 33 36 6 7
Expected demand -10 43 36 9 1
Past employment -5 -24 -4 -8 -10
Expected employment -6 13 14 -2 10
General outlook -15 34 40 9 -7
Information and communication (26%)
Composite indicator 100 107 106 108 109
Past activity 7 8 14 9 9
Expected activity 9 9 12 11 14
Expected demand 9 15 13 11 10
Past employment 6 11 10 14 2
Expected employment 10 18 16 23 28
General outlook 0 12 9 11 17
Real estate activities (11%)
Composite indicator 100 115 113 113 108
Past activity 6 9 11 21 16
Expected activity 6 16 10 12 7
Expected demand 1 20 10 10 5
Past employment 3 14 15 12 17
Expected employment 2 19 14 10 6
General outlook -4 12 5 7 3
Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%)
Composite indicator 100 107 109 108 112
Past activity -1 8 6 8 8
Expected activity -3 1 5 2 8
Expected demand -6 3 2 4 8
Past employment 0 -8 0 1 0
Expected employment 0 1 1 4 11
General outlook -9 4 6 4 6
Administrative and support service activities (18%)
Composite indicator 100 111 110 104 108
Past activity 5 4 7 1 14
Expected activity 5 16 16 11 10
Expected demand 3 21 18 6 18
Past employment 8 6 5 3 -7
Expected employment 7 0 -1 2 4
General outlook -4 15 13 6 9
  • The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
  • *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988, except general outlook since June 2000 (2006 for road transport)
  • Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.

For further information

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

The responses to this survey were collected between 27 August 2021 and 20 September 2021.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 21 October 2021 at 8:45 am

Pour en savoir plus

A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.

Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.

The responses to this survey were collected between 27 August 2021 and 20 September 2021.

Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.

Next issue: 21 October 2021 at 8:45 am

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