Informations Rapides · 26 August 2021 · n° 216
In August 2021, the French business climate has lost some steam while the employment climate is virtually stable Business indicator - August 2021

In August 2021, the business climate has accentuated the fall that began in July. The indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of business leaders from the main market sectors of activity, has lost three points. At 110, however, it remains at a high level, well above that before the health crisis (106) and, even more so, its long-term average (100).

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N^o 216

Paru le :Paru le26/08/2021

Prochaine parution le : 20/09/2024 at 08:45 - September 2024

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In August 2021, the business climate indicator in France has fallen again
The employment climate has stabilized
Revisions
For further information

In August 2021, the business climate indicator in France has fallen again

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tableauFrench business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
	French business climate composite indicator
2005-01	106.0
2005-02	106.4
2005-03	106.2
2005-04	105.5
2005-05	103.4
2005-06	104.3
2005-07	104.3
2005-08	104.0
2005-09	103.2
2005-10	106.2
2005-11	105.8
2005-12	107.2
2006-01	108.7
2006-02	105.7
2006-03	106.3
2006-04	106.6
2006-05	108.6
2006-06	107.8
2006-07	109.8
2006-08	110.0
2006-09	110.4
2006-10	110.3
2006-11	111.5
2006-12	109.8
2007-01	110.2
2007-02	111.9
2007-03	112.3
2007-04	112.9
2007-05	112.9
2007-06	114.0
2007-07	113.4
2007-08	112.3
2007-09	111.6
2007-10	110.3
2007-11	110.5
2007-12	110.0
2008-01	109.5
2008-02	107.9
2008-03	107.4
2008-04	104.9
2008-05	102.2
2008-06	99.0
2008-07	95.4
2008-08	94.0
2008-09	91.8
2008-10	82.7
2008-11	79.3
2008-12	77.0
2009-01	75.2
2009-02	73.8
2009-03	70.2
2009-04	72.3
2009-05	76.1
2009-06	79.5
2009-07	81.5
2009-08	84.7
2009-09	88.1
2009-10	90.7
2009-11	92.9
2009-12	93.3
2010-01	94.9
2010-02	95.6
2010-03	94.7
2010-04	98.7
2010-05	99.6
2010-06	98.9
2010-07	100.7
2010-08	102.9
2010-09	104.1
2010-10	105.2
2010-11	105.8
2010-12	107.0
2011-01	107.8
2011-02	108.5
2011-03	109.0
2011-04	108.4
2011-05	107.5
2011-06	107.4
2011-07	105.9
2011-08	100.8
2011-09	97.8
2011-10	97.0
2011-11	94.9
2011-12	93.7
2012-01	92.4
2012-02	92.4
2012-03	94.7
2012-04	96.4
2012-05	92.7
2012-06	91.8
2012-07	90.2
2012-08	89.4
2012-09	88.0
2012-10	86.5
2012-11	87.9
2012-12	88.7
2013-01	88.6
2013-02	88.7
2013-03	86.4
2013-04	85.2
2013-05	86.1
2013-06	87.1
2013-07	88.9
2013-08	92.0
2013-09	95.5
2013-10	94.9
2013-11	94.2
2013-12	93.7
2014-01	94.6
2014-02	94.6
2014-03	95.7
2014-04	95.6
2014-05	95.1
2014-06	94.4
2014-07	94.0
2014-08	92.7
2014-09	91.9
2014-10	91.6
2014-11	93.4
2014-12	93.5
2015-01	94.1
2015-02	94.9
2015-03	96.0
2015-04	97.1
2015-05	97.9
2015-06	99.1
2015-07	99.3
2015-08	100.7
2015-09	100.3
2015-10	101.1
2015-11	101.1
2015-12	99.8
2016-01	102.3
2016-02	101.0
2016-03	101.1
2016-04	100.6
2016-05	102.4
2016-06	101.1
2016-07	101.8
2016-08	101.3
2016-09	101.5
2016-10	102.0
2016-11	102.1
2016-12	104.4
2017-01	103.9
2017-02	104.6
2017-03	104.5
2017-04	104.8
2017-05	105.5
2017-06	106.7
2017-07	107.7
2017-08	108.9
2017-09	109.0
2017-10	108.5
2017-11	109.9
2017-12	110.7
2018-01	110.4
2018-02	109.6
2018-03	109.4
2018-04	108.7
2018-05	107.0
2018-06	106.6
2018-07	106.4
2018-08	105.7
2018-09	105.6
2018-10	104.9
2018-11	105.3
2018-12	102.6
2019-01	103.6
2019-02	104.1
2019-03	105.4
2019-04	106.3
2019-05	106.3
2019-06	106.4
2019-07	105.5
2019-08	105.7
2019-09	106.6
2019-10	106.2
2019-11	106.5
2019-12	106.2
2020-01	105.9
2020-02	105.6
2020-03	93.7
2020-04	47.6
2020-05	60.1
2020-06	84.4
2020-07	91.3
2020-08	94.6
2020-09	93.6
2020-10	90.1
2020-11	77.2
2020-12	92.8
2021-01	93.4
2021-02	90.8
2021-03	98.0
2021-04	95.5
2021-05	109.8
2021-06	114.4
2021-07	112.6
2021-08	110.1

graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator

In manufacturing, the business climate has gained one point: the balances of opinion on recent production and on personal production prospects have driven up the climate indicator, while that on overall order books has limited its rise.

In the services sector, the climate has lost three points, while remaining at a high level: managers’ expectations, although declining, remain above their long-term average.

In retail trade (including trade and repair of vehicles), the business climate has lost five points but also remains at a high level. This second consecutive deterioration is mainly due to the sharp decline in the balance of opinion on the general outlook for the sector, after a sharp rebound in May-June.

Finally, in building construction, the business managers remain rather positive about their activity, both recent and expected.

tableauBusiness and employment climates

Business and employment climates
	Apr. 21	May 21	June 21	July 21	Aug. 21
Business climates
France	96	110	114	113	110
Manufacturing	104	107	108	109	110
Building construction*	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Services	92	107	112	111	108
Retail trade	92	110	116	114	109
Wholesale trade		109		112

Employment	93	101	105	107	108

* c.f. « For further information »
Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate has stabilized

At the same time, the employment climate is virtually stable. At 108, it stands well above its long-term average (100). The increase in the balance of opinion on the recent change in employment in services excepting temporary employment agencies is partially offset by the slight decrease in that on the expected workforce in this same sector.

Graphique
Tableau

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tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
	French employment climate composite indicator
2005-01	102.1
2005-02	101.9
2005-03	104.4
2005-04	101.9
2005-05	102.6
2005-06	102.2
2005-07	102.7
2005-08	103.3
2005-09	103.7
2005-10	104.0
2005-11	103.9
2005-12	103.3
2006-01	104.1
2006-02	104.3
2006-03	104.8
2006-04	107.1
2006-05	108.2
2006-06	110.0
2006-07	109.8
2006-08	109.1
2006-09	108.1
2006-10	108.9
2006-11	110.5
2006-12	111.0
2007-01	109.5
2007-02	111.4
2007-03	111.2
2007-04	111.9
2007-05	113.3
2007-06	112.9
2007-07	111.1
2007-08	112.5
2007-09	113.2
2007-10	111.7
2007-11	113.2
2007-12	114.7
2008-01	114.0
2008-02	114.1
2008-03	112.5
2008-04	112.7
2008-05	108.4
2008-06	105.2
2008-07	105.5
2008-08	101.3
2008-09	100.0
2008-10	95.6
2008-11	88.5
2008-12	83.5
2009-01	81.2
2009-02	79.5
2009-03	74.1
2009-04	74.7
2009-05	73.8
2009-06	75.0
2009-07	78.6
2009-08	83.3
2009-09	82.7
2009-10	84.7
2009-11	86.9
2009-12	89.1
2010-01	90.5
2010-02	91.1
2010-03	93.6
2010-04	95.7
2010-05	97.8
2010-06	98.9
2010-07	99.3
2010-08	99.7
2010-09	101.4
2010-10	104.0
2010-11	105.2
2010-12	105.8
2011-01	104.8
2011-02	110.4
2011-03	109.8
2011-04	110.0
2011-05	111.4
2011-06	111.8
2011-07	110.0
2011-08	106.0
2011-09	104.0
2011-10	101.3
2011-11	101.2
2011-12	99.5
2012-01	98.5
2012-02	98.0
2012-03	99.6
2012-04	98.3
2012-05	95.9
2012-06	94.6
2012-07	93.3
2012-08	94.0
2012-09	91.6
2012-10	92.2
2012-11	90.7
2012-12	90.4
2013-01	93.0
2013-02	89.8
2013-03	89.0
2013-04	87.7
2013-05	87.3
2013-06	89.7
2013-07	91.0
2013-08	91.3
2013-09	93.0
2013-10	95.3
2013-11	93.8
2013-12	95.8
2014-01	96.0
2014-02	95.2
2014-03	96.0
2014-04	98.4
2014-05	97.5
2014-06	95.8
2014-07	96.5
2014-08	95.0
2014-09	95.2
2014-10	95.1
2014-11	95.0
2014-12	95.1
2015-01	94.4
2015-02	96.5
2015-03	96.1
2015-04	97.9
2015-05	97.9
2015-06	99.7
2015-07	100.1
2015-08	100.8
2015-09	100.7
2015-10	100.9
2015-11	102.2
2015-12	101.1
2016-01	102.3
2016-02	101.1
2016-03	100.3
2016-04	101.2
2016-05	102.7
2016-06	102.1
2016-07	104.2
2016-08	103.6
2016-09	104.7
2016-10	105.0
2016-11	105.0
2016-12	106.8
2017-01	105.5
2017-02	105.1
2017-03	107.9
2017-04	106.7
2017-05	107.6
2017-06	108.1
2017-07	107.9
2017-08	106.1
2017-09	107.1
2017-10	108.5
2017-11	108.4
2017-12	109.1
2018-01	109.7
2018-02	110.5
2018-03	110.5
2018-04	109.5
2018-05	109.7
2018-06	110.4
2018-07	108.6
2018-08	107.8
2018-09	107.6
2018-10	107.2
2018-11	105.2
2018-12	105.1
2019-01	105.6
2019-02	107.7
2019-03	108.2
2019-04	107.9
2019-05	106.0
2019-06	106.9
2019-07	106.4
2019-08	105.4
2019-09	106.3
2019-10	105.7
2019-11	106.4
2019-12	106.6
2020-01	105.5
2020-02	105.8
2020-03	97.9
2020-04	52.6
2020-05	56.1
2020-06	68.0
2020-07	76.8
2020-08	87.9
2020-09	92.6
2020-10	89.9
2020-11	85.6
2020-12	87.1
2021-01	88.8
2021-02	87.0
2021-03	93.4
2021-04	93.1
2021-05	100.6
2021-06	104.9
2021-07	107.4
2021-08	107.8

graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator

Revisions

The employment climate of July 2021 has been revised downwards by one point. Likewise, the sector business climates in manufacturing, services and retail trade (including trade and repair of vehicles) of July 2021 have been revised downwards by one point. These revisions are mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from companies.

For further information

The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.

Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.

The responses to these surveys were collected between 29July and 23 August 2021.

Next issue: 23 September 2021 at 08:45 am

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