Informations Rapides · 22 July 2021 · n° 190
In July 2021, the French business climate has weakened slightly while the employment climate has continued to improve Business indicator - July 2021

In July 2021, the business climate has weakened slightly. The indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of business leaders from the main market sectors of activity, has lost one point. At 113, however, it remains at a very high level, significantly above that before the health crisis (106) and, a fortiori, above its long-term average (100).

Informations rapides

N^o 190

Paru le :Paru le22/07/2021

Prochaine parution le : 24/10/2024 at 08:45 - October 2024

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The seasonal coefficients as well as the parameters of the composite indicators have been updated in July 2021. That has led to revisions in the set of results previously published.

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In July 2021, the business climate indicator in France is slightly less favorable
The employment climate has continued to improve
For further information

In July 2021, the business climate indicator in France is slightly less favorable

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tableauFrench business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
	French business climate composite indicator
2005-01	106.0
2005-02	106.4
2005-03	106.2
2005-04	105.5
2005-05	103.5
2005-06	104.3
2005-07	104.3
2005-08	104.0
2005-09	103.2
2005-10	106.2
2005-11	105.8
2005-12	107.3
2006-01	108.7
2006-02	105.7
2006-03	106.3
2006-04	106.6
2006-05	108.6
2006-06	107.9
2006-07	109.8
2006-08	110.1
2006-09	110.4
2006-10	110.3
2006-11	111.5
2006-12	109.8
2007-01	110.2
2007-02	111.9
2007-03	112.4
2007-04	112.9
2007-05	113.0
2007-06	114.0
2007-07	113.4
2007-08	112.3
2007-09	111.6
2007-10	110.3
2007-11	110.6
2007-12	110.0
2008-01	109.6
2008-02	107.9
2008-03	107.4
2008-04	105.0
2008-05	102.2
2008-06	99.0
2008-07	95.4
2008-08	94.1
2008-09	91.8
2008-10	82.7
2008-11	79.3
2008-12	77.0
2009-01	75.3
2009-02	73.8
2009-03	70.2
2009-04	72.3
2009-05	76.1
2009-06	79.5
2009-07	81.6
2009-08	84.7
2009-09	88.1
2009-10	90.7
2009-11	93.0
2009-12	93.3
2010-01	94.9
2010-02	95.7
2010-03	94.8
2010-04	98.8
2010-05	99.6
2010-06	98.9
2010-07	100.7
2010-08	102.9
2010-09	104.1
2010-10	105.2
2010-11	105.8
2010-12	107.1
2011-01	107.8
2011-02	108.5
2011-03	109.0
2011-04	108.4
2011-05	107.5
2011-06	107.4
2011-07	105.9
2011-08	100.8
2011-09	97.8
2011-10	97.1
2011-11	94.9
2011-12	93.8
2012-01	92.4
2012-02	92.4
2012-03	94.7
2012-04	96.4
2012-05	92.8
2012-06	91.9
2012-07	90.2
2012-08	89.5
2012-09	88.1
2012-10	86.5
2012-11	87.9
2012-12	88.8
2013-01	88.6
2013-02	88.8
2013-03	86.4
2013-04	85.2
2013-05	86.1
2013-06	87.1
2013-07	89.0
2013-08	92.1
2013-09	95.5
2013-10	94.9
2013-11	94.3
2013-12	93.7
2014-01	94.7
2014-02	94.6
2014-03	95.7
2014-04	95.6
2014-05	95.1
2014-06	94.4
2014-07	94.0
2014-08	92.7
2014-09	91.9
2014-10	91.6
2014-11	93.4
2014-12	93.6
2015-01	94.2
2015-02	95.0
2015-03	96.1
2015-04	97.1
2015-05	98.0
2015-06	99.1
2015-07	99.3
2015-08	100.7
2015-09	100.3
2015-10	101.2
2015-11	101.2
2015-12	99.8
2016-01	102.3
2016-02	101.0
2016-03	101.1
2016-04	100.6
2016-05	102.4
2016-06	101.1
2016-07	101.8
2016-08	101.3
2016-09	101.5
2016-10	102.0
2016-11	102.1
2016-12	104.4
2017-01	103.9
2017-02	104.6
2017-03	104.5
2017-04	104.8
2017-05	105.6
2017-06	106.7
2017-07	107.7
2017-08	108.9
2017-09	109.0
2017-10	108.5
2017-11	109.9
2017-12	110.8
2018-01	110.4
2018-02	109.6
2018-03	109.4
2018-04	108.7
2018-05	107.0
2018-06	106.6
2018-07	106.4
2018-08	105.7
2018-09	105.6
2018-10	104.9
2018-11	105.3
2018-12	102.6
2019-01	103.6
2019-02	104.2
2019-03	105.4
2019-04	106.3
2019-05	106.3
2019-06	106.4
2019-07	105.5
2019-08	105.8
2019-09	106.6
2019-10	106.2
2019-11	106.6
2019-12	106.2
2020-01	105.9
2020-02	105.6
2020-03	93.7
2020-04	47.6
2020-05	60.1
2020-06	84.4
2020-07	91.3
2020-08	94.7
2020-09	93.6
2020-10	90.1
2020-11	77.3
2020-12	92.9
2021-01	93.4
2021-02	90.9
2021-03	98.1
2021-04	95.6
2021-05	109.8
2021-06	114.4
2021-07	113.2

graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator

In manufacturing, the business climate has gained two points. In this sector, the balances of opinion on order books and on personal production prospects have increased sharply, while that on general production prospects has fallen back.

In the services sector, the climate is stable, at a high level: the expectations of the business leaders remain high.

In retail trade (including trade and repair of vehicles), the business climate has lost one point, but remains at a very high level. This slight dip is mainly due to the decline in the balances of opinion on the general business outlook for the sector.

In wholesale trade, the bimonthly business climate has gained three points compared to May and stands at a very high level.

Finally, in building construction, the business managers are as positive as in June about their expected activity.

tableauBusiness and employment climates

Business and employment climates
	Mar. 21	Apr. 21	May 21	June 21	July 21
Business climates
France	98	96	110	114	113
Manufacturing	99	104	107	108	110
Building construction*	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Services	94	92	107	112	112
Retail trade	96	92	110	116	115
Wholesale trade	99		109		112

Employment	93	93	101	105	108

* c.f. « For further information »
Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate has continued to improve

At the same time, the employment climate has improved again (+3 points). At 108, it stands at a level unseen since spring 2019, well above its long-term average (100). This further improvement is mainly due to the increase in the balance of opinion on the recent change in employment in services excepting temporary employment agencies.

Graphique
Tableau

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tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
	French employment climate composite indicator
2005-01	102.2
2005-02	101.9
2005-03	104.4
2005-04	101.9
2005-05	102.6
2005-06	102.2
2005-07	102.7
2005-08	103.3
2005-09	103.7
2005-10	104.0
2005-11	103.9
2005-12	103.3
2006-01	104.2
2006-02	104.3
2006-03	104.8
2006-04	107.1
2006-05	108.2
2006-06	110.0
2006-07	109.8
2006-08	109.1
2006-09	108.1
2006-10	108.9
2006-11	110.5
2006-12	111.0
2007-01	109.5
2007-02	111.4
2007-03	111.2
2007-04	111.9
2007-05	113.3
2007-06	112.9
2007-07	111.2
2007-08	112.5
2007-09	113.2
2007-10	111.7
2007-11	113.2
2007-12	114.7
2008-01	114.0
2008-02	114.1
2008-03	112.5
2008-04	112.7
2008-05	108.5
2008-06	105.2
2008-07	105.5
2008-08	101.3
2008-09	100.0
2008-10	95.6
2008-11	88.5
2008-12	83.5
2009-01	81.2
2009-02	79.5
2009-03	74.1
2009-04	74.7
2009-05	73.8
2009-06	75.1
2009-07	78.7
2009-08	83.3
2009-09	82.7
2009-10	84.7
2009-11	87.0
2009-12	89.2
2010-01	90.5
2010-02	91.1
2010-03	93.6
2010-04	95.7
2010-05	97.8
2010-06	98.9
2010-07	99.4
2010-08	99.7
2010-09	101.5
2010-10	104.0
2010-11	105.2
2010-12	105.8
2011-01	104.8
2011-02	110.4
2011-03	109.9
2011-04	110.1
2011-05	111.5
2011-06	111.8
2011-07	110.0
2011-08	106.0
2011-09	104.0
2011-10	101.3
2011-11	101.2
2011-12	99.5
2012-01	98.5
2012-02	98.0
2012-03	99.6
2012-04	98.3
2012-05	95.9
2012-06	94.6
2012-07	93.3
2012-08	94.1
2012-09	91.6
2012-10	92.2
2012-11	90.7
2012-12	90.4
2013-01	93.1
2013-02	89.8
2013-03	89.0
2013-04	87.7
2013-05	87.4
2013-06	89.7
2013-07	91.1
2013-08	91.3
2013-09	93.1
2013-10	95.4
2013-11	93.9
2013-12	95.9
2014-01	96.0
2014-02	95.3
2014-03	96.0
2014-04	98.4
2014-05	97.5
2014-06	95.9
2014-07	96.5
2014-08	95.0
2014-09	95.2
2014-10	95.1
2014-11	95.1
2014-12	95.1
2015-01	94.4
2015-02	96.5
2015-03	96.2
2015-04	97.9
2015-05	97.9
2015-06	99.7
2015-07	100.1
2015-08	100.9
2015-09	100.7
2015-10	100.9
2015-11	102.2
2015-12	101.1
2016-01	102.4
2016-02	101.2
2016-03	100.4
2016-04	101.2
2016-05	102.7
2016-06	102.1
2016-07	104.2
2016-08	103.7
2016-09	104.7
2016-10	105.0
2016-11	105.0
2016-12	106.8
2017-01	105.5
2017-02	105.1
2017-03	107.9
2017-04	106.7
2017-05	107.6
2017-06	108.1
2017-07	108.0
2017-08	106.3
2017-09	107.1
2017-10	108.5
2017-11	108.4
2017-12	109.1
2018-01	109.8
2018-02	110.5
2018-03	110.5
2018-04	109.5
2018-05	109.7
2018-06	110.4
2018-07	108.6
2018-08	108.1
2018-09	107.6
2018-10	107.2
2018-11	105.2
2018-12	105.1
2019-01	105.6
2019-02	107.7
2019-03	108.2
2019-04	107.9
2019-05	105.9
2019-06	106.9
2019-07	106.3
2019-08	105.9
2019-09	106.3
2019-10	105.6
2019-11	106.3
2019-12	106.6
2020-01	105.5
2020-02	105.8
2020-03	97.9
2020-04	52.7
2020-05	56.1
2020-06	68.1
2020-07	76.8
2020-08	88.6
2020-09	92.7
2020-10	89.9
2020-11	85.5
2020-12	87.1
2021-01	88.8
2021-02	87.0
2021-03	93.4
2021-04	93.1
2021-05	100.5
2021-06	104.9
2021-07	108.1

graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator

For further information

The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.

Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.

The responses to these surveys were collected between 28 June and 19 July 2021.

Next issue: 26 August 2021 at 08:45 am

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Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)

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