Informations Rapides · 22 July 2021 · n° 188

In July 2021, the business climate in wholesale trade has improved again Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - July 2021

According to the business managers surveyed in July 2021, the business climate in wholesale trade has improved from May to July. The composite indicator has gained 3 points and stands at 112, well above its long-term average (100). It has reached its highest level since March 2001. The balances of opinion regarding the wholesalers’ selling prices (past and expected) have increased again, standing at their highest level since the mid-1980s. While the balances of opinion on overall activity have contributed favourably to the improvement in the climate, those relating to recent export sales and upcoming foreign trade have worsened it.

The balances opinion on the general business outlook and on ordering intentions have continued to rise between May and July 2021. They therefore remain well above their long-term average.

The balance on ordering intentions over the next two months has improved in all sub-sectors, except in the wholesale trade of other industrial capital goods (machinery, equipment and supplies for all types of industry) and in the wholesale trade of information and communication equipment, where it has been stable at a very high level.

As for the forward-looking balances of opinion in connection with abroad, they have fallen back or stabilised. Thus, the balance of opinion on shipments to be made abroad has decreased between May and July 2021, while the balance on ordering intentions from abroad has been virtually stable. However, these balances of opinion have remained above their average.

From May to July 2021, the balance of opinion on the sales over the last two months of the entire wholesale trade has risen to its highest level since March 2001. The balance of opinion on merchandise received has risen again and further pulled away from its average. However, wholesalers have reported a less buoyant recent activity abroad: the balance for export sales has fallen, that for merchandise received from abroad has been stable after a strong rebound in May. Both balances have remained above their long-term average.

The balance of opinion on past sales stands above its long-term average in all sectors, except in the wholesale trade of gross agricultural products. Apart from this sector, the other opinion balances on past sales have been stable or increasing. The strongest increase has been in the wholesale trade of alimentary goods and beverages, which has returned to a level not seen since spring 2019.

The balance of opinion regarding the past change in workforce size has advanced again, more strongly than in March and May, and returned to its 2001 levels. This increase has concerned most of the sub-sectors of the wholesale trade, with the exception of the wholesale trade of gross agricultural products, where the balance of opinion has gone clearly down, and the wholesale of information and communication equipment, where it has been almost unchanged.

The balance of opinion on the expected workforce size, which has been virtually stable, has remained well above its average, which it has been exceeding since the beginning of 2021.

In July 2021, the balances of opinion regarding past and expected selling prices have carried on their rise started in January. However, the balance of opinion on expected prices has slowed down. Both have been above their long-term average since March 2021 and are standing at their highest level since the mid-1980s. Meanwhile, more and more wholesalers expect their suppliers’ prices to increase. This balance of opinion has also reached its highest level since 1985.

The balance of opinion associated with the cash flow situation of wholesalers has fallen slightly, but has remained close to its historical high of May 2021.