Informations Rapides ·
25 March 2021 · n° 077
In March 2021, before the local strengthening of health measures, the French business
climate and the employment climate improved clearly Business indicator - March 2021
In March 2021, the business climate has improved markedly. The indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of business leaders in the main market sectors of activity, has gained 7 points. At 97, it stands at the highest level since the start of the health crisis, thus approaching its long-term average (100).
This sharp increase reflects above all a renewed confidence in the tertiary sector: business climates in services and in retail trade have risen, respectively, by 6 and 5 points compared to February and, in wholesale trade, by 3 points compared to January. In manufacturing, after three months of improvement, the business climate is stable in March. These four business climates remain below their long-term averages, although in manufacturing and wholesale trade they are quite close to it. In the building industry, the opinion of business leaders on their activity, both recent and upcoming, has improved quite markedly in March.
The responses to this survey were collected between 26 February and 22 March 22 2021, i.e., for the vast majority, before the announcement on Thursday 18 March of new measures to fight the Covid-19 epidemic in 16 departments.
In March 2021, the business climate in France has improved markedly
In March 2021, the business climate has improved markedly. The indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of business leaders in the main market sectors of activity, has gained 7 points. At 97, it stands at the highest level since the start of the health crisis, thus approaching its long-term average (100).
This sharp increase reflects above all a renewed confidence in the tertiary sector: business climates in services and in retail trade have risen, respectively, by 6 and 5 points compared to February and, in wholesale trade, by 3 points compared to January. In manufacturing, after three months of improvement, the business climate is stable in March. These four business climates remain below their long-term averages, although in manufacturing and wholesale trade they are quite close to it. In the building industry, the opinion of business leaders on their activity, both recent and upcoming, has improved quite markedly in March.
tableauFrench business climate composite indicator
| French business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 106.0 |
| 2005-02 | 106.3 |
| 2005-03 | 105.8 |
| 2005-04 | 105.0 |
| 2005-05 | 102.8 |
| 2005-06 | 103.9 |
| 2005-07 | 104.5 |
| 2005-08 | 104.4 |
| 2005-09 | 103.7 |
| 2005-10 | 106.5 |
| 2005-11 | 106.6 |
| 2005-12 | 107.9 |
| 2006-01 | 109.1 |
| 2006-02 | 107.3 |
| 2006-03 | 107.4 |
| 2006-04 | 108.1 |
| 2006-05 | 109.7 |
| 2006-06 | 109.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.9 |
| 2006-08 | 111.1 |
| 2006-09 | 111.6 |
| 2006-10 | 111.4 |
| 2006-11 | 112.3 |
| 2006-12 | 110.7 |
| 2007-01 | 110.7 |
| 2007-02 | 112.3 |
| 2007-03 | 112.7 |
| 2007-04 | 113.4 |
| 2007-05 | 113.9 |
| 2007-06 | 115.0 |
| 2007-07 | 114.2 |
| 2007-08 | 112.9 |
| 2007-09 | 112.1 |
| 2007-10 | 111.4 |
| 2007-11 | 111.6 |
| 2007-12 | 111.3 |
| 2008-01 | 110.1 |
| 2008-02 | 108.7 |
| 2008-03 | 108.4 |
| 2008-04 | 105.8 |
| 2008-05 | 103.1 |
| 2008-06 | 100.3 |
| 2008-07 | 96.2 |
| 2008-08 | 94.9 |
| 2008-09 | 92.3 |
| 2008-10 | 83.9 |
| 2008-11 | 80.5 |
| 2008-12 | 77.0 |
| 2009-01 | 75.4 |
| 2009-02 | 73.1 |
| 2009-03 | 70.3 |
| 2009-04 | 71.4 |
| 2009-05 | 74.9 |
| 2009-06 | 77.6 |
| 2009-07 | 79.6 |
| 2009-08 | 83.4 |
| 2009-09 | 86.7 |
| 2009-10 | 89.2 |
| 2009-11 | 91.4 |
| 2009-12 | 91.9 |
| 2010-01 | 93.9 |
| 2010-02 | 94.3 |
| 2010-03 | 93.7 |
| 2010-04 | 97.7 |
| 2010-05 | 98.7 |
| 2010-06 | 98.4 |
| 2010-07 | 100.5 |
| 2010-08 | 102.7 |
| 2010-09 | 104.2 |
| 2010-10 | 105.2 |
| 2010-11 | 105.4 |
| 2010-12 | 107.1 |
| 2011-01 | 108.0 |
| 2011-02 | 108.6 |
| 2011-03 | 109.6 |
| 2011-04 | 109.3 |
| 2011-05 | 108.3 |
| 2011-06 | 108.5 |
| 2011-07 | 106.4 |
| 2011-08 | 101.4 |
| 2011-09 | 98.1 |
| 2011-10 | 97.0 |
| 2011-11 | 95.1 |
| 2011-12 | 93.7 |
| 2012-01 | 93.0 |
| 2012-02 | 92.9 |
| 2012-03 | 95.4 |
| 2012-04 | 96.1 |
| 2012-05 | 92.7 |
| 2012-06 | 91.7 |
| 2012-07 | 89.6 |
| 2012-08 | 89.1 |
| 2012-09 | 87.6 |
| 2012-10 | 85.7 |
| 2012-11 | 87.5 |
| 2012-12 | 88.2 |
| 2013-01 | 88.0 |
| 2013-02 | 88.0 |
| 2013-03 | 86.2 |
| 2013-04 | 84.7 |
| 2013-05 | 85.8 |
| 2013-06 | 86.9 |
| 2013-07 | 88.8 |
| 2013-08 | 92.0 |
| 2013-09 | 95.0 |
| 2013-10 | 94.7 |
| 2013-11 | 93.9 |
| 2013-12 | 93.8 |
| 2014-01 | 94.4 |
| 2014-02 | 94.3 |
| 2014-03 | 95.5 |
| 2014-04 | 95.4 |
| 2014-05 | 95.0 |
| 2014-06 | 93.9 |
| 2014-07 | 93.3 |
| 2014-08 | 92.1 |
| 2014-09 | 91.3 |
| 2014-10 | 91.5 |
| 2014-11 | 93.3 |
| 2014-12 | 93.5 |
| 2015-01 | 93.8 |
| 2015-02 | 94.6 |
| 2015-03 | 95.8 |
| 2015-04 | 96.8 |
| 2015-05 | 97.7 |
| 2015-06 | 98.5 |
| 2015-07 | 98.9 |
| 2015-08 | 100.4 |
| 2015-09 | 100.1 |
| 2015-10 | 101.1 |
| 2015-11 | 101.2 |
| 2015-12 | 99.7 |
| 2016-01 | 101.5 |
| 2016-02 | 100.6 |
| 2016-03 | 100.7 |
| 2016-04 | 100.7 |
| 2016-05 | 102.4 |
| 2016-06 | 100.8 |
| 2016-07 | 101.4 |
| 2016-08 | 101.1 |
| 2016-09 | 101.4 |
| 2016-10 | 101.7 |
| 2016-11 | 102.0 |
| 2016-12 | 104.2 |
| 2017-01 | 103.9 |
| 2017-02 | 104.4 |
| 2017-03 | 104.3 |
| 2017-04 | 104.5 |
| 2017-05 | 105.5 |
| 2017-06 | 107.1 |
| 2017-07 | 107.9 |
| 2017-08 | 108.8 |
| 2017-09 | 109.3 |
| 2017-10 | 109.3 |
| 2017-11 | 110.6 |
| 2017-12 | 111.6 |
| 2018-01 | 110.8 |
| 2018-02 | 109.9 |
| 2018-03 | 109.5 |
| 2018-04 | 108.7 |
| 2018-05 | 106.9 |
| 2018-06 | 106.7 |
| 2018-07 | 106.0 |
| 2018-08 | 105.4 |
| 2018-09 | 105.3 |
| 2018-10 | 104.2 |
| 2018-11 | 104.7 |
| 2018-12 | 101.8 |
| 2019-01 | 102.4 |
| 2019-02 | 103.4 |
| 2019-03 | 104.9 |
| 2019-04 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 106.2 |
| 2019-06 | 106.4 |
| 2019-07 | 105.3 |
| 2019-08 | 105.6 |
| 2019-09 | 106.5 |
| 2019-10 | 105.7 |
| 2019-11 | 106.0 |
| 2019-12 | 105.3 |
| 2020-01 | 104.9 |
| 2020-02 | 105.2 |
| 2020-03 | 94.6 |
| 2020-04 | 53.8 |
| 2020-05 | 60.5 |
| 2020-06 | 78.7 |
| 2020-07 | 84.4 |
| 2020-08 | 90.6 |
| 2020-09 | 91.9 |
| 2020-10 | 90.2 |
| 2020-11 | 79.4 |
| 2020-12 | 91.2 |
| 2021-01 | 91.5 |
| 2021-02 | 90.4 |
| 2021-03 | 96.6 |
graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
tableauBusiness and employment climates
| Nov. 20 | Dec. 20 | Jan. 21 | Feb. 21 | Mar. 21 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 79 | 91 | 91 | 90 | 97 |
| Manufacturing | 92 | 94 | 96 | 98 | 98 |
| Building construction* | 103 | 101 | 104 | 104 | 106 |
| Services | 78 | 90 | 92 | 89 | 95 |
| Retail trade | 72 | 94 | 93 | 89 | 94 |
| Wholesale trade | 86 | 95 | 98 | ||
| Employment | 84 | 86 | 88 | 86 | 92 |
- * c.f. « For further information »
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The employment climate has also improved markedly
At the same time, the employment climate has rebounded sharply. At 92, it has gained six points and returned to a level equivalent to that of September 2020, while remaining well below his average (100). This improvement is mainly due to the increase in the balances of opinion on the changes in the workforce size, both recent and expected, in services other than temporary employment agencies.
tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator
| French employment climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 102.6 |
| 2005-02 | 102.3 |
| 2005-03 | 104.8 |
| 2005-04 | 102.5 |
| 2005-05 | 103.1 |
| 2005-06 | 102.5 |
| 2005-07 | 102.9 |
| 2005-08 | 103.6 |
| 2005-09 | 104.0 |
| 2005-10 | 104.2 |
| 2005-11 | 104.1 |
| 2005-12 | 103.4 |
| 2006-01 | 104.3 |
| 2006-02 | 104.2 |
| 2006-03 | 104.9 |
| 2006-04 | 107.2 |
| 2006-05 | 108.2 |
| 2006-06 | 110.2 |
| 2006-07 | 109.9 |
| 2006-08 | 109.2 |
| 2006-09 | 108.1 |
| 2006-10 | 109.1 |
| 2006-11 | 110.5 |
| 2006-12 | 111.1 |
| 2007-01 | 109.4 |
| 2007-02 | 111.4 |
| 2007-03 | 111.1 |
| 2007-04 | 111.7 |
| 2007-05 | 113.3 |
| 2007-06 | 112.9 |
| 2007-07 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 112.6 |
| 2007-09 | 113.3 |
| 2007-10 | 111.7 |
| 2007-11 | 113.1 |
| 2007-12 | 114.6 |
| 2008-01 | 113.9 |
| 2008-02 | 113.9 |
| 2008-03 | 112.3 |
| 2008-04 | 112.5 |
| 2008-05 | 108.4 |
| 2008-06 | 105.0 |
| 2008-07 | 105.7 |
| 2008-08 | 101.2 |
| 2008-09 | 100.0 |
| 2008-10 | 95.6 |
| 2008-11 | 88.7 |
| 2008-12 | 83.9 |
| 2009-01 | 81.4 |
| 2009-02 | 79.9 |
| 2009-03 | 74.3 |
| 2009-04 | 74.9 |
| 2009-05 | 74.0 |
| 2009-06 | 75.1 |
| 2009-07 | 78.8 |
| 2009-08 | 83.4 |
| 2009-09 | 82.7 |
| 2009-10 | 84.8 |
| 2009-11 | 87.0 |
| 2009-12 | 89.3 |
| 2010-01 | 90.6 |
| 2010-02 | 91.1 |
| 2010-03 | 93.6 |
| 2010-04 | 95.8 |
| 2010-05 | 97.7 |
| 2010-06 | 98.7 |
| 2010-07 | 99.1 |
| 2010-08 | 99.5 |
| 2010-09 | 101.0 |
| 2010-10 | 103.7 |
| 2010-11 | 104.7 |
| 2010-12 | 105.5 |
| 2011-01 | 104.1 |
| 2011-02 | 110.0 |
| 2011-03 | 109.1 |
| 2011-04 | 109.2 |
| 2011-05 | 110.8 |
| 2011-06 | 111.0 |
| 2011-07 | 109.4 |
| 2011-08 | 105.4 |
| 2011-09 | 103.6 |
| 2011-10 | 100.7 |
| 2011-11 | 100.8 |
| 2011-12 | 99.1 |
| 2012-01 | 97.9 |
| 2012-02 | 97.5 |
| 2012-03 | 99.1 |
| 2012-04 | 98.0 |
| 2012-05 | 95.3 |
| 2012-06 | 94.2 |
| 2012-07 | 92.8 |
| 2012-08 | 93.8 |
| 2012-09 | 91.7 |
| 2012-10 | 92.1 |
| 2012-11 | 90.6 |
| 2012-12 | 90.2 |
| 2013-01 | 92.7 |
| 2013-02 | 89.6 |
| 2013-03 | 88.8 |
| 2013-04 | 87.3 |
| 2013-05 | 86.9 |
| 2013-06 | 89.4 |
| 2013-07 | 90.6 |
| 2013-08 | 91.2 |
| 2013-09 | 92.6 |
| 2013-10 | 95.0 |
| 2013-11 | 93.4 |
| 2013-12 | 95.4 |
| 2014-01 | 95.6 |
| 2014-02 | 94.9 |
| 2014-03 | 95.7 |
| 2014-04 | 98.3 |
| 2014-05 | 97.3 |
| 2014-06 | 95.7 |
| 2014-07 | 96.2 |
| 2014-08 | 94.8 |
| 2014-09 | 95.0 |
| 2014-10 | 94.9 |
| 2014-11 | 94.7 |
| 2014-12 | 95.0 |
| 2015-01 | 94.2 |
| 2015-02 | 96.3 |
| 2015-03 | 95.8 |
| 2015-04 | 97.7 |
| 2015-05 | 97.8 |
| 2015-06 | 99.5 |
| 2015-07 | 100.0 |
| 2015-08 | 100.7 |
| 2015-09 | 100.5 |
| 2015-10 | 100.9 |
| 2015-11 | 101.8 |
| 2015-12 | 101.1 |
| 2016-01 | 102.2 |
| 2016-02 | 100.9 |
| 2016-03 | 99.9 |
| 2016-04 | 100.8 |
| 2016-05 | 102.4 |
| 2016-06 | 101.8 |
| 2016-07 | 104.2 |
| 2016-08 | 103.4 |
| 2016-09 | 104.7 |
| 2016-10 | 105.0 |
| 2016-11 | 105.0 |
| 2016-12 | 106.7 |
| 2017-01 | 105.4 |
| 2017-02 | 104.7 |
| 2017-03 | 107.5 |
| 2017-04 | 106.6 |
| 2017-05 | 107.3 |
| 2017-06 | 107.9 |
| 2017-07 | 107.4 |
| 2017-08 | 105.9 |
| 2017-09 | 106.9 |
| 2017-10 | 108.5 |
| 2017-11 | 108.3 |
| 2017-12 | 108.9 |
| 2018-01 | 109.4 |
| 2018-02 | 110.0 |
| 2018-03 | 109.9 |
| 2018-04 | 109.1 |
| 2018-05 | 109.4 |
| 2018-06 | 110.0 |
| 2018-07 | 108.4 |
| 2018-08 | 107.7 |
| 2018-09 | 107.4 |
| 2018-10 | 107.2 |
| 2018-11 | 105.5 |
| 2018-12 | 104.9 |
| 2019-01 | 105.4 |
| 2019-02 | 107.1 |
| 2019-03 | 107.3 |
| 2019-04 | 107.2 |
| 2019-05 | 105.3 |
| 2019-06 | 106.5 |
| 2019-07 | 106.3 |
| 2019-08 | 105.2 |
| 2019-09 | 106.0 |
| 2019-10 | 105.9 |
| 2019-11 | 106.5 |
| 2019-12 | 106.6 |
| 2020-01 | 104.9 |
| 2020-02 | 105.2 |
| 2020-03 | 96.5 |
| 2020-04 | 49.6 |
| 2020-05 | 53.9 |
| 2020-06 | 67.5 |
| 2020-07 | 77.0 |
| 2020-08 | 88.0 |
| 2020-09 | 92.4 |
| 2020-10 | 89.6 |
| 2020-11 | 84.1 |
| 2020-12 | 85.9 |
| 2021-01 | 87.9 |
| 2021-02 | 85.6 |
| 2021-03 | 92.1 |
graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Revisions
The business climates in manufacturing and in services, as well as the employment climate of February 2021 have been revised upwards by one point. The bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has been revised upwards by one point for January 2021. These revisions are mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from companies.
For further information
The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.
Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.
Next issue: 22 April 2021 at 08:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.
Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.
Next issue: 22 April 2021 at 08:45 am