Insee
Informations Rapides · 24 February 2021 · n° 046
Informations rapidesIn February 2021, the French business climate as well as the employment climate have weakenedBusiness indicator - February 2021

According to business leaders surveyed between 28 January and 19 February 2021, the business climate in France has weakened slightly: at 90, the synthetic indicator has lost one point and therefore remains significantly below its long-term average (100).

As in the previous month, this slight decrease reflects different moves depending on the business sector, in a context of a continuing health crisis. The business climate has deteriorated in the tertiary sectors (services and retail trade) while it has continued to recover in manufacturing. In building construction, business leaders remain confident about their business prospects.

Informations rapides
No 046
Paru le : Paru le 24/02/2021
Prochaine parution le : 23/02/2022 at 08:45 - February 2022

The business climate in France has weakened slightly

According to business leaders surveyed between 28 January and 19 February 2021, the business climate in France has weakened slightly: at 90, the synthetic indicator has lost one point and therefore remains significantly below its long-term average (100).

As in the previous month, this slight decrease reflects different moves depending on the business sector, in a context of a continuing health crisis. The business climate has deteriorated in the tertiary sectors (services and retail trade) while it has continued to recover in manufacturing. In building construction, business leaders remain confident about their business prospects.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
2005-01 106.0
2005-02 106.2
2005-03 105.8
2005-04 105.0
2005-05 102.8
2005-06 103.9
2005-07 104.5
2005-08 104.4
2005-09 103.7
2005-10 106.5
2005-11 106.5
2005-12 107.8
2006-01 109.1
2006-02 107.3
2006-03 107.4
2006-04 108.1
2006-05 109.7
2006-06 109.1
2006-07 110.8
2006-08 111.1
2006-09 111.6
2006-10 111.4
2006-11 112.3
2006-12 110.7
2007-01 110.7
2007-02 112.3
2007-03 112.7
2007-04 113.4
2007-05 113.8
2007-06 114.9
2007-07 114.2
2007-08 112.9
2007-09 112.1
2007-10 111.4
2007-11 111.6
2007-12 111.2
2008-01 110.1
2008-02 108.7
2008-03 108.4
2008-04 105.7
2008-05 103.1
2008-06 100.3
2008-07 96.2
2008-08 94.9
2008-09 92.3
2008-10 83.9
2008-11 80.6
2008-12 77.0
2009-01 75.5
2009-02 73.1
2009-03 70.3
2009-04 71.4
2009-05 74.9
2009-06 77.6
2009-07 79.6
2009-08 83.4
2009-09 86.7
2009-10 89.2
2009-11 91.4
2009-12 91.9
2010-01 93.9
2010-02 94.3
2010-03 93.7
2010-04 97.7
2010-05 98.7
2010-06 98.4
2010-07 100.5
2010-08 102.7
2010-09 104.2
2010-10 105.2
2010-11 105.4
2010-12 107.1
2011-01 108.0
2011-02 108.6
2011-03 109.6
2011-04 109.3
2011-05 108.3
2011-06 108.5
2011-07 106.4
2011-08 101.4
2011-09 98.1
2011-10 97.0
2011-11 95.1
2011-12 93.7
2012-01 93.0
2012-02 92.9
2012-03 95.4
2012-04 96.1
2012-05 92.7
2012-06 91.7
2012-07 89.6
2012-08 89.1
2012-09 87.6
2012-10 85.7
2012-11 87.5
2012-12 88.2
2013-01 88.0
2013-02 88.0
2013-03 86.2
2013-04 84.7
2013-05 85.8
2013-06 86.9
2013-07 88.8
2013-08 92.0
2013-09 95.0
2013-10 94.7
2013-11 93.9
2013-12 93.8
2014-01 94.4
2014-02 94.3
2014-03 95.5
2014-04 95.4
2014-05 95.0
2014-06 93.9
2014-07 93.3
2014-08 92.1
2014-09 91.3
2014-10 91.5
2014-11 93.3
2014-12 93.5
2015-01 93.8
2015-02 94.6
2015-03 95.8
2015-04 96.8
2015-05 97.7
2015-06 98.5
2015-07 98.9
2015-08 100.4
2015-09 100.1
2015-10 101.1
2015-11 101.2
2015-12 99.7
2016-01 101.5
2016-02 100.6
2016-03 100.6
2016-04 100.7
2016-05 102.4
2016-06 100.8
2016-07 101.4
2016-08 101.1
2016-09 101.4
2016-10 101.7
2016-11 102.0
2016-12 104.2
2017-01 103.9
2017-02 104.4
2017-03 104.3
2017-04 104.5
2017-05 105.5
2017-06 107.1
2017-07 107.9
2017-08 108.8
2017-09 109.3
2017-10 109.2
2017-11 110.6
2017-12 111.5
2018-01 110.8
2018-02 109.8
2018-03 109.5
2018-04 108.7
2018-05 106.9
2018-06 106.7
2018-07 106.0
2018-08 105.4
2018-09 105.3
2018-10 104.2
2018-11 104.7
2018-12 101.8
2019-01 102.4
2019-02 103.4
2019-03 104.9
2019-04 105.5
2019-05 106.2
2019-06 106.4
2019-07 105.3
2019-08 105.6
2019-09 106.5
2019-10 105.7
2019-11 106.0
2019-12 105.2
2020-01 104.9
2020-02 105.2
2020-03 94.6
2020-04 53.8
2020-05 60.6
2020-06 78.7
2020-07 84.4
2020-08 90.6
2020-09 91.9
2020-10 90.2
2020-11 79.4
2020-12 91.2
2021-01 91.4
2021-02 90.2

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Oct. 20 Nov. 20 Dec. 20 Jan. 21 Fév. 21
Business climates
France 90 79 91 91 90
Manufacturing 94 92 94 96 97
Building construction* n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Services 89 78 90 92 88
Retail trade 95 72 94 93 89
Wholesale trade 86 94
Employment 90 84 86 88 85
  • * c.f. « For further information »
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate has deteriorated

At the same time, the employment climate has deteriorated. At 85, it has lost three points, after two months of slight improvement, and therefore remains well below its pre-crisis level. This deterioration is mainly due to the fall in the balances of opinion on the change (recent as expected) in the workforce size in retail trade.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
2005-01 102.6
2005-02 102.3
2005-03 104.8
2005-04 102.5
2005-05 103.1
2005-06 102.5
2005-07 102.9
2005-08 103.6
2005-09 103.9
2005-10 104.2
2005-11 104.0
2005-12 103.4
2006-01 104.3
2006-02 104.2
2006-03 104.8
2006-04 107.1
2006-05 108.2
2006-06 110.2
2006-07 109.9
2006-08 109.2
2006-09 108.1
2006-10 109.1
2006-11 110.5
2006-12 111.0
2007-01 109.4
2007-02 111.4
2007-03 111.1
2007-04 111.7
2007-05 113.3
2007-06 112.9
2007-07 111.2
2007-08 112.6
2007-09 113.3
2007-10 111.6
2007-11 113.1
2007-12 114.5
2008-01 113.9
2008-02 113.9
2008-03 112.3
2008-04 112.5
2008-05 108.4
2008-06 105.0
2008-07 105.7
2008-08 101.2
2008-09 99.9
2008-10 95.6
2008-11 88.7
2008-12 83.9
2009-01 81.4
2009-02 79.9
2009-03 74.3
2009-04 74.9
2009-05 74.0
2009-06 75.1
2009-07 78.8
2009-08 83.4
2009-09 82.7
2009-10 84.7
2009-11 87.0
2009-12 89.3
2010-01 90.6
2010-02 91.1
2010-03 93.6
2010-04 95.8
2010-05 97.7
2010-06 98.7
2010-07 99.1
2010-08 99.5
2010-09 101.0
2010-10 103.7
2010-11 104.7
2010-12 105.5
2011-01 104.1
2011-02 110.0
2011-03 109.1
2011-04 109.2
2011-05 110.8
2011-06 110.9
2011-07 109.4
2011-08 105.3
2011-09 103.6
2011-10 100.7
2011-11 100.7
2011-12 99.1
2012-01 97.9
2012-02 97.5
2012-03 99.1
2012-04 97.9
2012-05 95.3
2012-06 94.2
2012-07 92.8
2012-08 93.8
2012-09 91.7
2012-10 92.1
2012-11 90.6
2012-12 90.2
2013-01 92.7
2013-02 89.6
2013-03 88.8
2013-04 87.3
2013-05 86.8
2013-06 89.4
2013-07 90.6
2013-08 91.2
2013-09 92.6
2013-10 94.9
2013-11 93.4
2013-12 95.4
2014-01 95.6
2014-02 94.9
2014-03 95.7
2014-04 98.3
2014-05 97.3
2014-06 95.7
2014-07 96.1
2014-08 94.8
2014-09 94.9
2014-10 94.9
2014-11 94.7
2014-12 95.0
2015-01 94.2
2015-02 96.3
2015-03 95.7
2015-04 97.7
2015-05 97.8
2015-06 99.5
2015-07 100.0
2015-08 100.7
2015-09 100.5
2015-10 100.9
2015-11 101.8
2015-12 101.0
2016-01 102.1
2016-02 100.9
2016-03 99.9
2016-04 100.8
2016-05 102.4
2016-06 101.7
2016-07 104.2
2016-08 103.4
2016-09 104.7
2016-10 105.0
2016-11 105.0
2016-12 106.6
2017-01 105.4
2017-02 104.7
2017-03 107.4
2017-04 106.6
2017-05 107.3
2017-06 107.9
2017-07 107.4
2017-08 105.9
2017-09 106.9
2017-10 108.5
2017-11 108.3
2017-12 108.8
2018-01 109.4
2018-02 110.0
2018-03 109.9
2018-04 109.1
2018-05 109.3
2018-06 110.0
2018-07 108.4
2018-08 107.7
2018-09 107.3
2018-10 107.2
2018-11 105.4
2018-12 104.8
2019-01 105.3
2019-02 107.1
2019-03 107.3
2019-04 107.1
2019-05 105.3
2019-06 106.5
2019-07 106.3
2019-08 105.2
2019-09 106.0
2019-10 105.9
2019-11 106.5
2019-12 106.6
2020-01 104.9
2020-02 105.1
2020-03 96.5
2020-04 49.6
2020-05 53.9
2020-06 67.5
2020-07 77.0
2020-08 88.0
2020-09 92.3
2020-10 89.6
2020-11 84.0
2020-12 85.9
2021-01 87.9
2021-02 85.4

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Revisions

The business climate in France in January 2021 has been revised downwards by one point and that in industry downwards by two points. The business climate in services for January has been revised upwards by one point, as the employment climate in France. These revisions are mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from companies.

For further information

The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.

Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.

Company responses were collected between 28 January 2021 and 19 February 2021.

Next issue: 25 March 2021 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

Pour en savoir plus

The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.

Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.

Company responses were collected between 28 January 2021 and 19 February 2021.

Next issue: 25 March 2021 at 08:45 am

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