Informations Rapides ·
21 January 2021 · n° 014
In January 2021, the French business climate has improved very slightly, as well as
the employment climate Business indicator - January 2021
According to the business managers surveyed between 28 December 2020 and 18 January 2021, the business climate in France has improved very slightly: at 92, the synthetic indicator has gained one point and then remains well below its long-term average (100).
This very slight rise reflects different developments depending on the activity sector, in connection with the uncertainty regarding the evolution of the health situation. The business climate has improved in manufacturing compared to last month and in wholesale trade compared to November, while it has barely fluctuated in services and retail trade. In building construction, business managers have reported being more optimistic than in December about their own prospects, but have a bleaker assessment of their recent activity.
The business climate in France has improved very slightly
According to the business managers surveyed between 28 December 2020 and 18 January 2021, the business climate in France has improved very slightly: at 92, the synthetic indicator has gained one point and then remains well below its long-term average (100).
This very slight rise reflects different developments depending on the activity sector, in connection with the uncertainty regarding the evolution of the health situation. The business climate has improved in manufacturing compared to last month and in wholesale trade compared to November, while it has barely fluctuated in services and retail trade. In building construction, business managers have reported being more optimistic than in December about their own prospects, but have a bleaker assessment of their recent activity.
tableauFrench business climate composite indicator
| French business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 106.0 |
| 2005-02 | 106.2 |
| 2005-03 | 105.8 |
| 2005-04 | 105.0 |
| 2005-05 | 102.8 |
| 2005-06 | 103.9 |
| 2005-07 | 104.4 |
| 2005-08 | 104.3 |
| 2005-09 | 103.7 |
| 2005-10 | 106.5 |
| 2005-11 | 106.5 |
| 2005-12 | 107.8 |
| 2006-01 | 109.1 |
| 2006-02 | 107.3 |
| 2006-03 | 107.4 |
| 2006-04 | 108.1 |
| 2006-05 | 109.6 |
| 2006-06 | 109.1 |
| 2006-07 | 110.8 |
| 2006-08 | 111.1 |
| 2006-09 | 111.5 |
| 2006-10 | 111.4 |
| 2006-11 | 112.2 |
| 2006-12 | 110.7 |
| 2007-01 | 110.7 |
| 2007-02 | 112.3 |
| 2007-03 | 112.7 |
| 2007-04 | 113.4 |
| 2007-05 | 113.8 |
| 2007-06 | 114.9 |
| 2007-07 | 114.2 |
| 2007-08 | 112.9 |
| 2007-09 | 112.1 |
| 2007-10 | 111.4 |
| 2007-11 | 111.5 |
| 2007-12 | 111.2 |
| 2008-01 | 110.0 |
| 2008-02 | 108.7 |
| 2008-03 | 108.4 |
| 2008-04 | 105.7 |
| 2008-05 | 103.0 |
| 2008-06 | 100.2 |
| 2008-07 | 96.2 |
| 2008-08 | 94.9 |
| 2008-09 | 92.2 |
| 2008-10 | 83.9 |
| 2008-11 | 80.5 |
| 2008-12 | 77.0 |
| 2009-01 | 75.4 |
| 2009-02 | 73.1 |
| 2009-03 | 70.3 |
| 2009-04 | 71.4 |
| 2009-05 | 74.8 |
| 2009-06 | 77.6 |
| 2009-07 | 79.6 |
| 2009-08 | 83.3 |
| 2009-09 | 86.7 |
| 2009-10 | 89.2 |
| 2009-11 | 91.3 |
| 2009-12 | 91.9 |
| 2010-01 | 93.9 |
| 2010-02 | 94.3 |
| 2010-03 | 93.6 |
| 2010-04 | 97.7 |
| 2010-05 | 98.7 |
| 2010-06 | 98.3 |
| 2010-07 | 100.5 |
| 2010-08 | 102.7 |
| 2010-09 | 104.2 |
| 2010-10 | 105.2 |
| 2010-11 | 105.4 |
| 2010-12 | 107.0 |
| 2011-01 | 107.9 |
| 2011-02 | 108.6 |
| 2011-03 | 109.5 |
| 2011-04 | 109.3 |
| 2011-05 | 108.2 |
| 2011-06 | 108.5 |
| 2011-07 | 106.4 |
| 2011-08 | 101.3 |
| 2011-09 | 98.1 |
| 2011-10 | 96.9 |
| 2011-11 | 95.0 |
| 2011-12 | 93.7 |
| 2012-01 | 93.0 |
| 2012-02 | 92.9 |
| 2012-03 | 95.4 |
| 2012-04 | 96.0 |
| 2012-05 | 92.7 |
| 2012-06 | 91.6 |
| 2012-07 | 89.6 |
| 2012-08 | 89.1 |
| 2012-09 | 87.6 |
| 2012-10 | 85.6 |
| 2012-11 | 87.5 |
| 2012-12 | 88.1 |
| 2013-01 | 88.0 |
| 2013-02 | 88.0 |
| 2013-03 | 86.1 |
| 2013-04 | 84.7 |
| 2013-05 | 85.8 |
| 2013-06 | 86.9 |
| 2013-07 | 88.8 |
| 2013-08 | 91.9 |
| 2013-09 | 95.0 |
| 2013-10 | 94.7 |
| 2013-11 | 93.8 |
| 2013-12 | 93.8 |
| 2014-01 | 94.4 |
| 2014-02 | 94.2 |
| 2014-03 | 95.5 |
| 2014-04 | 95.3 |
| 2014-05 | 95.0 |
| 2014-06 | 93.9 |
| 2014-07 | 93.3 |
| 2014-08 | 92.0 |
| 2014-09 | 91.3 |
| 2014-10 | 91.5 |
| 2014-11 | 93.2 |
| 2014-12 | 93.4 |
| 2015-01 | 93.8 |
| 2015-02 | 94.6 |
| 2015-03 | 95.7 |
| 2015-04 | 96.8 |
| 2015-05 | 97.7 |
| 2015-06 | 98.5 |
| 2015-07 | 98.9 |
| 2015-08 | 100.4 |
| 2015-09 | 100.1 |
| 2015-10 | 101.0 |
| 2015-11 | 101.2 |
| 2015-12 | 99.7 |
| 2016-01 | 101.5 |
| 2016-02 | 100.5 |
| 2016-03 | 100.6 |
| 2016-04 | 100.6 |
| 2016-05 | 102.4 |
| 2016-06 | 100.8 |
| 2016-07 | 101.4 |
| 2016-08 | 101.0 |
| 2016-09 | 101.4 |
| 2016-10 | 101.6 |
| 2016-11 | 101.9 |
| 2016-12 | 104.2 |
| 2017-01 | 103.8 |
| 2017-02 | 104.3 |
| 2017-03 | 104.3 |
| 2017-04 | 104.5 |
| 2017-05 | 105.5 |
| 2017-06 | 107.0 |
| 2017-07 | 107.8 |
| 2017-08 | 108.8 |
| 2017-09 | 109.3 |
| 2017-10 | 109.2 |
| 2017-11 | 110.5 |
| 2017-12 | 111.5 |
| 2018-01 | 110.8 |
| 2018-02 | 109.8 |
| 2018-03 | 109.5 |
| 2018-04 | 108.6 |
| 2018-05 | 106.8 |
| 2018-06 | 106.6 |
| 2018-07 | 106.0 |
| 2018-08 | 105.4 |
| 2018-09 | 105.2 |
| 2018-10 | 104.1 |
| 2018-11 | 104.7 |
| 2018-12 | 101.8 |
| 2019-01 | 102.3 |
| 2019-02 | 103.4 |
| 2019-03 | 104.9 |
| 2019-04 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 106.2 |
| 2019-06 | 106.3 |
| 2019-07 | 105.3 |
| 2019-08 | 105.6 |
| 2019-09 | 106.4 |
| 2019-10 | 105.6 |
| 2019-11 | 106.0 |
| 2019-12 | 105.2 |
| 2020-01 | 104.9 |
| 2020-02 | 105.2 |
| 2020-03 | 94.6 |
| 2020-04 | 53.8 |
| 2020-05 | 60.5 |
| 2020-06 | 78.7 |
| 2020-07 | 84.3 |
| 2020-08 | 90.5 |
| 2020-09 | 91.8 |
| 2020-10 | 90.2 |
| 2020-11 | 79.4 |
| 2020-12 | 91.2 |
| 2021-01 | 91.6 |
graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
tableauBusiness and employment climates
| Oct. 20 | Oct. 20 | Nov. 20 | Dec. 20 | Jan. 21 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 92 | 90 | 79 | 91 | 92 |
| Manufacturing | 95 | 94 | 92 | 94 | 98 |
| Building construction* | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Services | 95 | 89 | 78 | 90 | 91 |
| Retail trade | 95 | 95 | 72 | 94 | 93 |
| Wholesale trade | 90 | 86 | 94 | ||
| Employment | 92 | 90 | 84 | 86 | 87 |
- * c.f. « For further information »
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The employment climate has also improved very slightly
At the same time, the employment climate has risen very slightly. At 87, it has gained one point from December, but still stands well below its pre-crisis level (above 105).
This very slight improvement is mainly due to the rise in the balance of opinion on the expected workforce size and, to a lesser extent, on the recent trend of workforce size in retail trade. It is offset by the decrease in the balance on the expected workforce size in services.
tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator
| French employment climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 102.6 |
| 2005-02 | 102.3 |
| 2005-03 | 104.8 |
| 2005-04 | 102.5 |
| 2005-05 | 103.1 |
| 2005-06 | 102.5 |
| 2005-07 | 102.9 |
| 2005-08 | 103.5 |
| 2005-09 | 103.9 |
| 2005-10 | 104.2 |
| 2005-11 | 104.0 |
| 2005-12 | 103.4 |
| 2006-01 | 104.2 |
| 2006-02 | 104.2 |
| 2006-03 | 104.8 |
| 2006-04 | 107.1 |
| 2006-05 | 108.2 |
| 2006-06 | 110.1 |
| 2006-07 | 109.9 |
| 2006-08 | 109.2 |
| 2006-09 | 108.1 |
| 2006-10 | 109.1 |
| 2006-11 | 110.5 |
| 2006-12 | 111.0 |
| 2007-01 | 109.4 |
| 2007-02 | 111.4 |
| 2007-03 | 111.1 |
| 2007-04 | 111.7 |
| 2007-05 | 113.2 |
| 2007-06 | 112.9 |
| 2007-07 | 111.2 |
| 2007-08 | 112.5 |
| 2007-09 | 113.3 |
| 2007-10 | 111.6 |
| 2007-11 | 113.1 |
| 2007-12 | 114.5 |
| 2008-01 | 113.8 |
| 2008-02 | 113.9 |
| 2008-03 | 112.3 |
| 2008-04 | 112.5 |
| 2008-05 | 108.3 |
| 2008-06 | 105.0 |
| 2008-07 | 105.7 |
| 2008-08 | 101.1 |
| 2008-09 | 99.9 |
| 2008-10 | 95.6 |
| 2008-11 | 88.7 |
| 2008-12 | 83.8 |
| 2009-01 | 81.4 |
| 2009-02 | 79.8 |
| 2009-03 | 74.2 |
| 2009-04 | 74.8 |
| 2009-05 | 73.9 |
| 2009-06 | 75.1 |
| 2009-07 | 78.7 |
| 2009-08 | 83.3 |
| 2009-09 | 82.6 |
| 2009-10 | 84.7 |
| 2009-11 | 86.9 |
| 2009-12 | 89.3 |
| 2010-01 | 90.6 |
| 2010-02 | 91.1 |
| 2010-03 | 93.6 |
| 2010-04 | 95.7 |
| 2010-05 | 97.6 |
| 2010-06 | 98.7 |
| 2010-07 | 99.0 |
| 2010-08 | 99.4 |
| 2010-09 | 101.0 |
| 2010-10 | 103.7 |
| 2010-11 | 104.6 |
| 2010-12 | 105.4 |
| 2011-01 | 104.0 |
| 2011-02 | 110.0 |
| 2011-03 | 109.0 |
| 2011-04 | 109.2 |
| 2011-05 | 110.7 |
| 2011-06 | 110.9 |
| 2011-07 | 109.3 |
| 2011-08 | 105.3 |
| 2011-09 | 103.5 |
| 2011-10 | 100.6 |
| 2011-11 | 100.7 |
| 2011-12 | 99.0 |
| 2012-01 | 97.8 |
| 2012-02 | 97.4 |
| 2012-03 | 99.0 |
| 2012-04 | 97.9 |
| 2012-05 | 95.2 |
| 2012-06 | 94.2 |
| 2012-07 | 92.7 |
| 2012-08 | 93.7 |
| 2012-09 | 91.6 |
| 2012-10 | 92.0 |
| 2012-11 | 90.5 |
| 2012-12 | 90.1 |
| 2013-01 | 92.6 |
| 2013-02 | 89.5 |
| 2013-03 | 88.7 |
| 2013-04 | 87.3 |
| 2013-05 | 86.8 |
| 2013-06 | 89.4 |
| 2013-07 | 90.5 |
| 2013-08 | 91.1 |
| 2013-09 | 92.5 |
| 2013-10 | 94.9 |
| 2013-11 | 93.3 |
| 2013-12 | 95.3 |
| 2014-01 | 95.5 |
| 2014-02 | 94.8 |
| 2014-03 | 95.7 |
| 2014-04 | 98.2 |
| 2014-05 | 97.2 |
| 2014-06 | 95.6 |
| 2014-07 | 96.1 |
| 2014-08 | 94.8 |
| 2014-09 | 94.9 |
| 2014-10 | 94.8 |
| 2014-11 | 94.7 |
| 2014-12 | 95.0 |
| 2015-01 | 94.2 |
| 2015-02 | 96.3 |
| 2015-03 | 95.7 |
| 2015-04 | 97.7 |
| 2015-05 | 97.8 |
| 2015-06 | 99.5 |
| 2015-07 | 99.9 |
| 2015-08 | 100.7 |
| 2015-09 | 100.5 |
| 2015-10 | 100.8 |
| 2015-11 | 101.7 |
| 2015-12 | 101.0 |
| 2016-01 | 102.1 |
| 2016-02 | 100.8 |
| 2016-03 | 99.8 |
| 2016-04 | 100.7 |
| 2016-05 | 102.3 |
| 2016-06 | 101.7 |
| 2016-07 | 104.1 |
| 2016-08 | 103.4 |
| 2016-09 | 104.7 |
| 2016-10 | 105.0 |
| 2016-11 | 105.0 |
| 2016-12 | 106.6 |
| 2017-01 | 105.4 |
| 2017-02 | 104.6 |
| 2017-03 | 107.4 |
| 2017-04 | 106.5 |
| 2017-05 | 107.3 |
| 2017-06 | 107.8 |
| 2017-07 | 107.3 |
| 2017-08 | 105.8 |
| 2017-09 | 106.9 |
| 2017-10 | 108.5 |
| 2017-11 | 108.3 |
| 2017-12 | 108.8 |
| 2018-01 | 109.3 |
| 2018-02 | 110.0 |
| 2018-03 | 109.8 |
| 2018-04 | 109.1 |
| 2018-05 | 109.3 |
| 2018-06 | 110.0 |
| 2018-07 | 108.4 |
| 2018-08 | 107.6 |
| 2018-09 | 107.3 |
| 2018-10 | 107.2 |
| 2018-11 | 105.4 |
| 2018-12 | 104.8 |
| 2019-01 | 105.3 |
| 2019-02 | 107.1 |
| 2019-03 | 107.2 |
| 2019-04 | 107.1 |
| 2019-05 | 105.2 |
| 2019-06 | 106.5 |
| 2019-07 | 106.2 |
| 2019-08 | 105.2 |
| 2019-09 | 105.9 |
| 2019-10 | 105.8 |
| 2019-11 | 106.4 |
| 2019-12 | 106.6 |
| 2020-01 | 104.8 |
| 2020-02 | 105.1 |
| 2020-03 | 96.4 |
| 2020-04 | 49.4 |
| 2020-05 | 53.7 |
| 2020-06 | 67.4 |
| 2020-07 | 76.8 |
| 2020-08 | 87.9 |
| 2020-09 | 92.2 |
| 2020-10 | 89.5 |
| 2020-11 | 84.0 |
| 2020-12 | 85.9 |
| 2021-01 | 87.0 |
graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Revisions
The sectoral business climate in manufacturing for December 2020 has been revised upwards by one point and the one in retail trade downwards by one point. The sectoral business climate in wholesale trade for November 2020 has been revised downwards by one point. Those revisions are mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from companies.
For further information
The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.
Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.
Company responses were collected between 28December2020 and 18 January 2021.
Next issue: 24 February 2021 at 08:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.
Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.
Company responses were collected between 28December2020 and 18 January 2021.
Next issue: 24 February 2021 at 08:45 am