17 December 2020

2020- n° 324
In December 2020, the French business climate has bounced back strongly, the employment climate has recovered more moderately Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - December 2020

According to the business managers surveyed between 27 November and 14 December, the business climate in France has bounced back strongly: at 91, the synthetic indicator has gained 12 points and has returned to its level before the second lockdown (between 90 and 92), while remaining well below its long-term average (100).

Business leaders are significantly less pessimistic than in November about the expected activity for the next three months, whether it is for their sector as a whole or for their own business. This movement can be seen in all sectors surveyed in December (manufacturing industry, services, building construction and retail trade). At the same time, the balances of opinion relating to recent activity have fallen in manufacturing industry, services and especially in retail trade, in connection with the lockdown introduced at the end of October.

Informations rapides

N^o 324

Paru le :Paru le17/12/2020

Prochaine parution le : 24/05/2024 at 08:45 - May 2024

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The business climate in France has picked up sharply, in connection with the relaxation of the health restriction measures
Slight improvement for the employment climate
Revisions
For further information

The business climate in France has picked up sharply, in connection with the relaxation of the health restriction measures

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Tableau

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tableauFrench business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
	French business climate composite indicator
2005-01	106.0
2005-02	106.2
2005-03	105.7
2005-04	105.0
2005-05	102.8
2005-06	103.9
2005-07	104.4
2005-08	104.3
2005-09	103.7
2005-10	106.5
2005-11	106.5
2005-12	107.8
2006-01	109.0
2006-02	107.3
2006-03	107.3
2006-04	108.1
2006-05	109.6
2006-06	109.1
2006-07	110.8
2006-08	111.1
2006-09	111.5
2006-10	111.4
2006-11	112.2
2006-12	110.7
2007-01	110.6
2007-02	112.2
2007-03	112.7
2007-04	113.3
2007-05	113.8
2007-06	114.9
2007-07	114.1
2007-08	112.9
2007-09	112.1
2007-10	111.3
2007-11	111.5
2007-12	111.2
2008-01	110.0
2008-02	108.6
2008-03	108.3
2008-04	105.7
2008-05	103.0
2008-06	100.2
2008-07	96.1
2008-08	94.9
2008-09	92.2
2008-10	83.8
2008-11	80.5
2008-12	77.0
2009-01	75.4
2009-02	73.1
2009-03	70.3
2009-04	71.4
2009-05	74.8
2009-06	77.6
2009-07	79.6
2009-08	83.3
2009-09	86.7
2009-10	89.2
2009-11	91.3
2009-12	91.8
2010-01	93.8
2010-02	94.2
2010-03	93.6
2010-04	97.7
2010-05	98.7
2010-06	98.3
2010-07	100.4
2010-08	102.7
2010-09	104.1
2010-10	105.1
2010-11	105.4
2010-12	107.0
2011-01	107.9
2011-02	108.6
2011-03	109.5
2011-04	109.2
2011-05	108.2
2011-06	108.5
2011-07	106.4
2011-08	101.3
2011-09	98.1
2011-10	96.9
2011-11	95.0
2011-12	93.7
2012-01	93.0
2012-02	92.9
2012-03	95.4
2012-04	96.0
2012-05	92.7
2012-06	91.6
2012-07	89.5
2012-08	89.1
2012-09	87.5
2012-10	85.6
2012-11	87.5
2012-12	88.1
2013-01	88.0
2013-02	88.0
2013-03	86.1
2013-04	84.7
2013-05	85.8
2013-06	86.8
2013-07	88.8
2013-08	91.9
2013-09	95.0
2013-10	94.7
2013-11	93.8
2013-12	93.7
2014-01	94.3
2014-02	94.2
2014-03	95.5
2014-04	95.3
2014-05	95.0
2014-06	93.9
2014-07	93.2
2014-08	92.0
2014-09	91.3
2014-10	91.4
2014-11	93.2
2014-12	93.4
2015-01	93.8
2015-02	94.6
2015-03	95.7
2015-04	96.7
2015-05	97.6
2015-06	98.4
2015-07	98.9
2015-08	100.4
2015-09	100.1
2015-10	101.0
2015-11	101.1
2015-12	99.7
2016-01	101.5
2016-02	100.5
2016-03	100.6
2016-04	100.6
2016-05	102.4
2016-06	100.7
2016-07	101.4
2016-08	101.0
2016-09	101.4
2016-10	101.6
2016-11	101.9
2016-12	104.1
2017-01	103.8
2017-02	104.3
2017-03	104.2
2017-04	104.5
2017-05	105.5
2017-06	107.0
2017-07	107.8
2017-08	108.8
2017-09	109.3
2017-10	109.2
2017-11	110.5
2017-12	111.5
2018-01	110.8
2018-02	109.8
2018-03	109.4
2018-04	108.6
2018-05	106.8
2018-06	106.6
2018-07	105.9
2018-08	105.4
2018-09	105.2
2018-10	104.1
2018-11	104.6
2018-12	101.8
2019-01	102.3
2019-02	103.3
2019-03	104.9
2019-04	105.5
2019-05	106.2
2019-06	106.3
2019-07	105.3
2019-08	105.5
2019-09	106.4
2019-10	105.6
2019-11	106.0
2019-12	105.2
2020-01	104.9
2020-02	105.2
2020-03	94.6
2020-04	53.8
2020-05	60.5
2020-06	78.7
2020-07	84.3
2020-08	90.5
2020-09	91.8
2020-10	90.2
2020-11	79.4
2020-12	91.5

graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator

tableauBusiness and employment climates

Business and employment climates
	Sept. 20	Oct. 20	Oct. 20	Nov. 20	Dec. 20
Business climates
France	90	92	90	79	91
Manufacturing	93	95	94	92	93
Building construction*	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Services	93	95	89	78	90
Retail trade	93	95	95	72	95
Wholesale trade		90		87

Employment	88	92	89	84	86

* c.f. « For further information »
Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Slight improvement for the employment climate

At the same time, the employment climate has bounced back slightly. At 86, it has gained two points from November, but still stands well below its pre-crisis level (above 105).

This small rebound is mainly due to the rise in the balance of opinion on the expected workforce size in the tertiary sector – in particular retail trade and services exclusive of temporary work agencies – and, to a lesser extent, in manufacturing. However, the drop in the balance on recent workforce size in services exclusive of temporary work agencies has limited this rebound.

Graphique
Tableau

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tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
	French employment climate composite indicator
2005-01	102.5
2005-02	102.2
2005-03	104.8
2005-04	102.4
2005-05	103.0
2005-06	102.4
2005-07	102.9
2005-08	103.5
2005-09	103.9
2005-10	104.2
2005-11	104.0
2005-12	103.3
2006-01	104.2
2006-02	104.2
2006-03	104.8
2006-04	107.1
2006-05	108.2
2006-06	110.1
2006-07	109.9
2006-08	109.1
2006-09	108.0
2006-10	109.0
2006-11	110.5
2006-12	111.0
2007-01	109.4
2007-02	111.3
2007-03	111.0
2007-04	111.6
2007-05	113.2
2007-06	112.9
2007-07	111.1
2007-08	112.5
2007-09	113.2
2007-10	111.6
2007-11	113.0
2007-12	114.5
2008-01	113.8
2008-02	113.9
2008-03	112.3
2008-04	112.5
2008-05	108.3
2008-06	104.9
2008-07	105.6
2008-08	101.1
2008-09	99.9
2008-10	95.5
2008-11	88.7
2008-12	83.8
2009-01	81.3
2009-02	79.8
2009-03	74.2
2009-04	74.8
2009-05	73.9
2009-06	75.0
2009-07	78.7
2009-08	83.3
2009-09	82.6
2009-10	84.6
2009-11	86.9
2009-12	89.2
2010-01	90.5
2010-02	91.0
2010-03	93.5
2010-04	95.7
2010-05	97.6
2010-06	98.6
2010-07	99.0
2010-08	99.4
2010-09	100.9
2010-10	103.6
2010-11	104.6
2010-12	105.4
2011-01	104.0
2011-02	109.9
2011-03	109.0
2011-04	109.1
2011-05	110.7
2011-06	110.9
2011-07	109.3
2011-08	105.2
2011-09	103.5
2011-10	100.6
2011-11	100.7
2011-12	99.0
2012-01	97.8
2012-02	97.4
2012-03	99.0
2012-04	97.8
2012-05	95.2
2012-06	94.1
2012-07	92.7
2012-08	93.7
2012-09	91.6
2012-10	92.0
2012-11	90.5
2012-12	90.1
2013-01	92.6
2013-02	89.5
2013-03	88.7
2013-04	87.2
2013-05	86.7
2013-06	89.3
2013-07	90.5
2013-08	91.1
2013-09	92.5
2013-10	94.8
2013-11	93.3
2013-12	95.3
2014-01	95.5
2014-02	94.8
2014-03	95.6
2014-04	98.2
2014-05	97.2
2014-06	95.6
2014-07	96.1
2014-08	94.7
2014-09	94.9
2014-10	94.8
2014-11	94.6
2014-12	95.0
2015-01	94.1
2015-02	96.2
2015-03	95.7
2015-04	97.6
2015-05	97.7
2015-06	99.4
2015-07	99.9
2015-08	100.6
2015-09	100.4
2015-10	100.8
2015-11	101.7
2015-12	101.0
2016-01	102.1
2016-02	100.8
2016-03	99.8
2016-04	100.7
2016-05	102.3
2016-06	101.7
2016-07	104.1
2016-08	103.4
2016-09	104.7
2016-10	104.9
2016-11	104.9
2016-12	106.6
2017-01	105.3
2017-02	104.6
2017-03	107.4
2017-04	106.5
2017-05	107.2
2017-06	107.8
2017-07	107.3
2017-08	105.8
2017-09	106.8
2017-10	108.4
2017-11	108.3
2017-12	108.8
2018-01	109.3
2018-02	109.9
2018-03	109.8
2018-04	109.0
2018-05	109.2
2018-06	109.9
2018-07	108.3
2018-08	107.6
2018-09	107.3
2018-10	107.1
2018-11	105.4
2018-12	104.8
2019-01	105.2
2019-02	107.0
2019-03	107.2
2019-04	107.1
2019-05	105.2
2019-06	106.4
2019-07	106.2
2019-08	105.2
2019-09	105.9
2019-10	105.8
2019-11	106.4
2019-12	106.6
2020-01	104.9
2020-02	105.1
2020-03	96.4
2020-04	49.3
2020-05	53.6
2020-06	67.3
2020-07	76.7
2020-08	87.9
2020-09	92.2
2020-10	89.4
2020-11	83.9
2020-12	85.5

graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator

Revisions

The sectoral business climate in services and the employment climate for November 2020 have been revised upwards by one point. Those revisions are mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from companies.

For further information

The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.

Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.

Company responses were collected between 27 November and 14 December 2020.

Next issue: 21 January 2021 at 08:45 am

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