24 November 2020

2020- n° 298
In November 2020, the French business climate and the employment climate have deteriorated sharply Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - November 2020

According to the business managers surveyed between 28 October and 19 November, the general business outlook has darkened considerably compared to the previous month.

This wave of pessimism has concerned in particular, in the context of the second lockdown, retail trade and services, but also manufacturing.

Regarding personal business prospects, the decline in the balances of opinion is particularly marked in the sub-sectors most affected by the lockdown (accommodation and food services, specialized retail trade, trade and repair of vehicles), while in non-specialized retail trade, the balance of opinion on expected sales has increased, driven by those on food sales. In manufacturing and in building construction, personal business prospects are deemed to have shrunk.

All in all, at 79, the synthetic indicator of the business climate in France has fallen by 11 points and has returned to its June level, without however returning to the low point reached in April (54).

Informations rapides

N^o 298

Paru le :Paru le24/11/2020

Prochaine parution le : 24/10/2024 at 08:45 - October 2024

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(xls, 161 Ko)

Warning

Company responses were collected between 28 October and 19 November 2020 through Internet only considering the ongoing lockdown. Therefore the response rate is slightly lower this month than in October.

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Documentation

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Sommaire

The second lockdown has affected sharply the business prospects, especially in retail trade and in accommodation and food services
Increased pessimism about employment prospects in the tertiary sector
Revisions
For further information

The second lockdown has affected sharply the business prospects, especially in retail trade and in accommodation and food services

According to the business managers surveyed between 28 October and 19 November, the general business outlook has darkened considerably compared to the previous month.

This wave of pessimism has concerned in particular, in the context of the second lockdown, retail trade and services, but also manufacturing.

Graphique
Tableau

Affichage de l’onglet contenant le tableau ou de l’onglet contenant le graphique

tableauFrench business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
	French business climate composite indicator
2005-01	105.9
2005-02	106.2
2005-03	105.7
2005-04	104.9
2005-05	102.7
2005-06	103.8
2005-07	104.4
2005-08	104.3
2005-09	103.6
2005-10	106.4
2005-11	106.5
2005-12	107.8
2006-01	109.0
2006-02	107.3
2006-03	107.3
2006-04	108.0
2006-05	109.6
2006-06	109.1
2006-07	110.8
2006-08	111.0
2006-09	111.5
2006-10	111.3
2006-11	112.2
2006-12	110.7
2007-01	110.6
2007-02	112.2
2007-03	112.6
2007-04	113.3
2007-05	113.8
2007-06	114.9
2007-07	114.1
2007-08	112.8
2007-09	112.0
2007-10	111.3
2007-11	111.5
2007-12	111.2
2008-01	110.0
2008-02	108.6
2008-03	108.3
2008-04	105.7
2008-05	103.0
2008-06	100.2
2008-07	96.1
2008-08	94.9
2008-09	92.2
2008-10	83.8
2008-11	80.5
2008-12	76.9
2009-01	75.4
2009-02	73.1
2009-03	70.2
2009-04	71.3
2009-05	74.8
2009-06	77.6
2009-07	79.6
2009-08	83.3
2009-09	86.6
2009-10	89.1
2009-11	91.3
2009-12	91.8
2010-01	93.8
2010-02	94.2
2010-03	93.6
2010-04	97.6
2010-05	98.6
2010-06	98.3
2010-07	100.4
2010-08	102.6
2010-09	104.1
2010-10	105.1
2010-11	105.3
2010-12	107.0
2011-01	107.9
2011-02	108.5
2011-03	109.5
2011-04	109.2
2011-05	108.2
2011-06	108.4
2011-07	106.3
2011-08	101.3
2011-09	98.1
2011-10	96.9
2011-11	95.0
2011-12	93.7
2012-01	92.9
2012-02	92.9
2012-03	95.4
2012-04	96.0
2012-05	92.6
2012-06	91.6
2012-07	89.5
2012-08	89.1
2012-09	87.5
2012-10	85.6
2012-11	87.5
2012-12	88.1
2013-01	88.0
2013-02	88.0
2013-03	86.1
2013-04	84.7
2013-05	85.7
2013-06	86.8
2013-07	88.7
2013-08	91.9
2013-09	95.0
2013-10	94.6
2013-11	93.8
2013-12	93.7
2014-01	94.3
2014-02	94.2
2014-03	95.4
2014-04	95.3
2014-05	94.9
2014-06	93.8
2014-07	93.2
2014-08	92.0
2014-09	91.3
2014-10	91.4
2014-11	93.2
2014-12	93.4
2015-01	93.8
2015-02	94.6
2015-03	95.7
2015-04	96.7
2015-05	97.6
2015-06	98.4
2015-07	98.8
2015-08	100.3
2015-09	100.1
2015-10	101.0
2015-11	101.1
2015-12	99.6
2016-01	101.4
2016-02	100.5
2016-03	100.6
2016-04	100.6
2016-05	102.3
2016-06	100.7
2016-07	101.3
2016-08	101.0
2016-09	101.3
2016-10	101.6
2016-11	101.9
2016-12	104.1
2017-01	103.8
2017-02	104.3
2017-03	104.2
2017-04	104.4
2017-05	105.4
2017-06	107.0
2017-07	107.8
2017-08	108.7
2017-09	109.2
2017-10	109.2
2017-11	110.5
2017-12	111.5
2018-01	110.7
2018-02	109.8
2018-03	109.4
2018-04	108.6
2018-05	106.8
2018-06	106.6
2018-07	105.9
2018-08	105.3
2018-09	105.2
2018-10	104.1
2018-11	104.6
2018-12	101.8
2019-01	102.3
2019-02	103.3
2019-03	104.8
2019-04	105.4
2019-05	106.2
2019-06	106.3
2019-07	105.3
2019-08	105.5
2019-09	106.4
2019-10	105.6
2019-11	105.9
2019-12	105.2
2020-01	104.8
2020-02	105.1
2020-03	94.6
2020-04	53.8
2020-05	60.5
2020-06	78.6
2020-07	84.3
2020-08	90.5
2020-09	91.8
2020-10	90.2
2020-11	79.1

graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator

tableauBusiness and employment climates

Business and employment climates
	Aug. 20	Sept. 20	Oct. 20	Oct. 20	Nov. 20
Business climates
France	84	90	92	90	79
Manufacturing	82	92	94	94	92
Building construction*	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Services	89	93	95	89	77
Retail trade	88	93	95	95	72
Wholesale trade	79		90		87

Employment	77	88	92	89	83

* c.f. « For further information »
Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Increased pessimism about employment prospects in the tertiary sector

At the same time, the employment climate has accentuated its deterioration. At 83, it has lost 6 points from October and stands well below its level before crisis (above 105).

This deterioration is again mainly due to the fall in the balance of opinion on the expected workforce in the tertiary sector (in particular retail trade and services exclusive of temporary work agencies). Employment prospects have worsened slightly in manufacturing, but they have held steady or even improved in building construction.

Graphique
Tableau

Affichage de l’onglet contenant le tableau ou de l’onglet contenant le graphique

tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
	French employment climate composite indicator
2005-01	102.5
2005-02	102.2
2005-03	104.7
2005-04	102.4
2005-05	103.0
2005-06	102.4
2005-07	102.8
2005-08	103.5
2005-09	103.8
2005-10	104.1
2005-11	103.9
2005-12	103.3
2006-01	104.2
2006-02	104.1
2006-03	104.7
2006-04	107.1
2006-05	108.1
2006-06	110.1
2006-07	109.8
2006-08	109.1
2006-09	108.0
2006-10	109.0
2006-11	110.4
2006-12	111.0
2007-01	109.3
2007-02	111.3
2007-03	111.0
2007-04	111.6
2007-05	113.2
2007-06	112.8
2007-07	111.1
2007-08	112.5
2007-09	113.2
2007-10	111.6
2007-11	113.0
2007-12	114.5
2008-01	113.8
2008-02	113.8
2008-03	112.2
2008-04	112.5
2008-05	108.3
2008-06	104.9
2008-07	105.6
2008-08	101.1
2008-09	99.8
2008-10	95.5
2008-11	88.6
2008-12	83.7
2009-01	81.3
2009-02	79.7
2009-03	74.1
2009-04	74.7
2009-05	73.8
2009-06	75.0
2009-07	78.6
2009-08	83.2
2009-09	82.5
2009-10	84.6
2009-11	86.8
2009-12	89.2
2010-01	90.5
2010-02	91.0
2010-03	93.5
2010-04	95.7
2010-05	97.5
2010-06	98.6
2010-07	98.9
2010-08	99.3
2010-09	100.9
2010-10	103.6
2010-11	104.6
2010-12	105.4
2011-01	104.0
2011-02	109.9
2011-03	109.0
2011-04	109.1
2011-05	110.7
2011-06	110.8
2011-07	109.3
2011-08	105.2
2011-09	103.5
2011-10	100.5
2011-11	100.6
2011-12	99.0
2012-01	97.7
2012-02	97.4
2012-03	99.0
2012-04	97.8
2012-05	95.1
2012-06	94.1
2012-07	92.7
2012-08	93.6
2012-09	91.5
2012-10	91.9
2012-11	90.4
2012-12	90.1
2013-01	92.6
2013-02	89.4
2013-03	88.7
2013-04	87.2
2013-05	86.7
2013-06	89.3
2013-07	90.4
2013-08	91.1
2013-09	92.5
2013-10	94.8
2013-11	93.3
2013-12	95.2
2014-01	95.4
2014-02	94.8
2014-03	95.6
2014-04	98.2
2014-05	97.2
2014-06	95.6
2014-07	96.0
2014-08	94.7
2014-09	94.8
2014-10	94.7
2014-11	94.6
2014-12	94.9
2015-01	94.1
2015-02	96.2
2015-03	95.6
2015-04	97.6
2015-05	97.7
2015-06	99.4
2015-07	99.8
2015-08	100.6
2015-09	100.4
2015-10	100.7
2015-11	101.7
2015-12	100.9
2016-01	102.0
2016-02	100.8
2016-03	99.8
2016-04	100.7
2016-05	102.3
2016-06	101.6
2016-07	104.1
2016-08	103.3
2016-09	104.6
2016-10	104.9
2016-11	104.9
2016-12	106.6
2017-01	105.3
2017-02	104.6
2017-03	107.4
2017-04	106.5
2017-05	107.2
2017-06	107.8
2017-07	107.2
2017-08	105.7
2017-09	106.8
2017-10	108.4
2017-11	108.2
2017-12	108.8
2018-01	109.3
2018-02	109.9
2018-03	109.8
2018-04	109.0
2018-05	109.2
2018-06	109.9
2018-07	108.3
2018-08	107.5
2018-09	107.2
2018-10	107.0
2018-11	105.3
2018-12	104.9
2019-01	105.2
2019-02	107.0
2019-03	107.2
2019-04	107.0
2019-05	105.1
2019-06	106.4
2019-07	106.1
2019-08	105.0
2019-09	105.8
2019-10	105.7
2019-11	106.4
2019-12	106.9
2020-01	104.8
2020-02	105.1
2020-03	96.4
2020-04	49.2
2020-05	53.5
2020-06	67.1
2020-07	76.6
2020-08	87.7
2020-09	92.1
2020-10	89.3
2020-11	82.5

graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator

Revisions

The sectoral business climate in manufacturing for October 2020 has been revised upwards by one point. The bimonthly business climate in wholesale trade has been revised downwards for September 2020, by two points. Those revisions are mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from companies.

For further information

The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.

Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.

Next issue: 17 December 2020 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)

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