24 November 2020
2020- n° 297In November 2020, the business climate has amplified sharply its decline in services Monthly survey of services - November 2020
According to the business managers surveyed in November 2020, the business climate in services has deteriorated again significantly. At 77, the business climate composite indicator has lost 12 points this month and stands far below its long-term average (100).
Company responses were collected between 28 October and 19 November 2020, solely online considering the current lockdown. Therefore the response rate is slightly lower this month than in October.
According to the business managers surveyed in November 2020, the business climate in services has deteriorated again significantly. At 77, the business climate composite indicator has lost 12 points this month and stands far below its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 2005-01 | 106.7 |
| 2005-02 | 106.5 |
| 2005-03 | 108.4 |
| 2005-04 | 108.1 |
| 2005-05 | 106.3 |
| 2005-06 | 108.5 |
| 2005-07 | 107.8 |
| 2005-08 | 107.5 |
| 2005-09 | 107.1 |
| 2005-10 | 108.6 |
| 2005-11 | 106.6 |
| 2005-12 | 106.9 |
| 2006-01 | 108.8 |
| 2006-02 | 106.5 |
| 2006-03 | 107.7 |
| 2006-04 | 108.0 |
| 2006-05 | 110.5 |
| 2006-06 | 109.2 |
| 2006-07 | 110.4 |
| 2006-08 | 110.5 |
| 2006-09 | 110.7 |
| 2006-10 | 110.9 |
| 2006-11 | 113.0 |
| 2006-12 | 111.5 |
| 2007-01 | 111.0 |
| 2007-02 | 112.3 |
| 2007-03 | 113.3 |
| 2007-04 | 113.0 |
| 2007-05 | 112.9 |
| 2007-06 | 112.6 |
| 2007-07 | 113.1 |
| 2007-08 | 112.3 |
| 2007-09 | 111.5 |
| 2007-10 | 110.2 |
| 2007-11 | 110.3 |
| 2007-12 | 109.3 |
| 2008-01 | 110.6 |
| 2008-02 | 108.8 |
| 2008-03 | 108.9 |
| 2008-04 | 107.4 |
| 2008-05 | 105.0 |
| 2008-06 | 102.0 |
| 2008-07 | 97.8 |
| 2008-08 | 96.4 |
| 2008-09 | 94.4 |
| 2008-10 | 86.1 |
| 2008-11 | 82.2 |
| 2008-12 | 79.2 |
| 2009-01 | 76.7 |
| 2009-02 | 75.6 |
| 2009-03 | 70.6 |
| 2009-04 | 70.7 |
| 2009-05 | 74.6 |
| 2009-06 | 79.0 |
| 2009-07 | 82.6 |
| 2009-08 | 85.1 |
| 2009-09 | 88.2 |
| 2009-10 | 91.3 |
| 2009-11 | 92.6 |
| 2009-12 | 93.1 |
| 2010-01 | 94.6 |
| 2010-02 | 94.8 |
| 2010-03 | 95.0 |
| 2010-04 | 98.0 |
| 2010-05 | 99.6 |
| 2010-06 | 98.8 |
| 2010-07 | 99.6 |
| 2010-08 | 101.1 |
| 2010-09 | 102.0 |
| 2010-10 | 103.3 |
| 2010-11 | 105.1 |
| 2010-12 | 107.0 |
| 2011-01 | 107.3 |
| 2011-02 | 109.4 |
| 2011-03 | 110.5 |
| 2011-04 | 109.2 |
| 2011-05 | 108.0 |
| 2011-06 | 107.5 |
| 2011-07 | 105.5 |
| 2011-08 | 101.2 |
| 2011-09 | 99.1 |
| 2011-10 | 98.0 |
| 2011-11 | 96.0 |
| 2011-12 | 95.6 |
| 2012-01 | 93.8 |
| 2012-02 | 93.2 |
| 2012-03 | 94.5 |
| 2012-04 | 96.4 |
| 2012-05 | 92.9 |
| 2012-06 | 91.0 |
| 2012-07 | 90.6 |
| 2012-08 | 88.6 |
| 2012-09 | 88.3 |
| 2012-10 | 87.1 |
| 2012-11 | 86.6 |
| 2012-12 | 88.1 |
| 2013-01 | 89.1 |
| 2013-02 | 87.9 |
| 2013-03 | 85.2 |
| 2013-04 | 84.3 |
| 2013-05 | 85.7 |
| 2013-06 | 87.0 |
| 2013-07 | 87.5 |
| 2013-08 | 89.4 |
| 2013-09 | 92.9 |
| 2013-10 | 92.4 |
| 2013-11 | 93.0 |
| 2013-12 | 91.7 |
| 2014-01 | 93.0 |
| 2014-02 | 92.8 |
| 2014-03 | 93.6 |
| 2014-04 | 94.0 |
| 2014-05 | 92.9 |
| 2014-06 | 92.9 |
| 2014-07 | 93.2 |
| 2014-08 | 92.3 |
| 2014-09 | 91.7 |
| 2014-10 | 92.0 |
| 2014-11 | 91.9 |
| 2014-12 | 92.0 |
| 2015-01 | 91.8 |
| 2015-02 | 92.1 |
| 2015-03 | 92.9 |
| 2015-04 | 94.5 |
| 2015-05 | 96.0 |
| 2015-06 | 97.3 |
| 2015-07 | 97.9 |
| 2015-08 | 99.0 |
| 2015-09 | 98.0 |
| 2015-10 | 100.0 |
| 2015-11 | 99.7 |
| 2015-12 | 97.6 |
| 2016-01 | 100.4 |
| 2016-02 | 100.3 |
| 2016-03 | 99.9 |
| 2016-04 | 98.8 |
| 2016-05 | 101.1 |
| 2016-06 | 99.5 |
| 2016-07 | 100.7 |
| 2016-08 | 100.4 |
| 2016-09 | 101.2 |
| 2016-10 | 101.1 |
| 2016-11 | 101.2 |
| 2016-12 | 103.9 |
| 2017-01 | 102.0 |
| 2017-02 | 103.0 |
| 2017-03 | 103.5 |
| 2017-04 | 103.4 |
| 2017-05 | 103.0 |
| 2017-06 | 103.8 |
| 2017-07 | 104.1 |
| 2017-08 | 106.0 |
| 2017-09 | 106.8 |
| 2017-10 | 106.9 |
| 2017-11 | 107.5 |
| 2017-12 | 108.8 |
| 2018-01 | 107.8 |
| 2018-02 | 106.6 |
| 2018-03 | 106.9 |
| 2018-04 | 106.0 |
| 2018-05 | 104.5 |
| 2018-06 | 105.0 |
| 2018-07 | 104.6 |
| 2018-08 | 103.9 |
| 2018-09 | 104.7 |
| 2018-10 | 103.5 |
| 2018-11 | 104.0 |
| 2018-12 | 102.4 |
| 2019-01 | 103.7 |
| 2019-02 | 103.6 |
| 2019-03 | 104.8 |
| 2019-04 | 105.6 |
| 2019-05 | 106.0 |
| 2019-06 | 106.4 |
| 2019-07 | 105.3 |
| 2019-08 | 104.9 |
| 2019-09 | 105.9 |
| 2019-10 | 105.9 |
| 2019-11 | 106.3 |
| 2019-12 | 106.7 |
| 2020-01 | 106.3 |
| 2020-02 | 106.0 |
| 2020-03 | 93.1 |
| 2020-04 | 42.1 |
| 2020-05 | 52.3 |
| 2020-06 | 78.5 |
| 2020-07 | 88.6 |
| 2020-08 | 93.2 |
| 2020-09 | 94.5 |
| 2020-10 | 88.9 |
| 2020-11 | 77.5 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The balances on the expectations of company managers have dropped sharply
In November 2020, in the context of the new lockdown introduced on 30 October, the pessimism of business leaders has amplified, both about their own business prospects and expected demand for the next three months or about the general outlook for the sector. The three corresponding balances are well below their average. The balance of opinion on past activity over the past three months is stable and slightly above its long-term average. For their part, the balances of opinion on selling prices, both past and expected, have declined slightly and are below their average level. About employment, the balance of opinion on the workforce size for the last three months has increased slightly while remaining below its average, whereas the one on expected workforce size has declined sharply and stands well below its average.
The balance of opinion on past investment has rebounded slightly albeit remaining below its average level, while the one on expected investment has declined sharply and also remains below its average.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Aug. 2020 | Sep. 2020 | Oct. 2020 | Nov. 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 93 | 95 | 89 | 77 |
| General outlook | -8 | -13 | -16 | -20 | -39 |
| Past activity | 1 | -25 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Expected activity | 1 | -2 | -5 | -15 | -29 |
| Expected demand | -1 | -5 | -7 | -17 | -29 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | -10 | -6 | -4 | -6 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | -6 | -5 | -10 | -13 |
| Past employment | 2 | -20 | -4 | -3 | 1 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | -19 | -11 | -13 | -6 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -1 | -2 | -7 | -17 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | -8 | -7 | -10 | -24 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 1 | -18 | -9 | -13 | -9 |
| Expected investments | 1 | -8 | -7 | -9 | -13 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate has deteriorated in all sub-sectors
In November, the business sentiment and especially the balance of opinion on the general outlook have deteriorated in all service sub-sectors. In accommodation and food services, the sub-sector most affected by the health measures, the climate has accelerated sharply its deterioration that began in October. At 61, it has lost 18 points in November, however without reproducing the sharper drop observed in April. The balances of opinion on own short-term activity and demand prospects have fallen sharply. In administrative and support service activities and in professional, scientific and technical activities, the business climate indicator have also fallen sharply and it is well below its average level.
To a lesser extent, in the sub-sectors of road freight transport, real estate activities and information and communication, the business climate has deteriorated in November and has moved away from its long-term average.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Aug. 2020 | Sep. 2020 | Oct. 2020 | Nov. 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 105 | 104 | 97 | 91 |
| Past activity | -6 | -16 | 8 | 11 | 5 |
| Expected activity | -7 | 8 | 3 | -15 | -34 |
| Expected demand | -9 | 0 | -3 | -17 | -28 |
| Past employment | -6 | -21 | -15 | -12 | -1 |
| Expected employment | -7 | 10 | -5 | -7 | -12 |
| General outlook | -19 | -8 | -16 | -25 | -42 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 88 | 90 | 79 | 61 |
| Past activity | -8 | -30 | 14 | -6 | -13 |
| Expected activity | -8 | -21 | -17 | -32 | -66 |
| Expected demand | -10 | -19 | -20 | -37 | -62 |
| Past employment | -5 | -26 | -13 | -16 | -13 |
| Expected employment | -6 | -18 | -10 | -23 | -42 |
| General outlook | -14 | -33 | -46 | -55 | -77 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 89 | 90 | 89 | 85 |
| Past activity | 7 | -27 | -4 | -3 | 11 |
| Expected activity | 9 | 2 | -4 | -12 | -13 |
| Expected demand | 9 | 0 | -9 | -20 | -9 |
| Past employment | 6 | -24 | -19 | -14 | 0 |
| Expected employment | 10 | -5 | -10 | -7 | -12 |
| General outlook | 0 | -10 | -7 | -10 | -33 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 91 | 95 | 87 | 84 |
| Past activity | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | -2 |
| Expected activity | 6 | 1 | 1 | -8 | -13 |
| Expected demand | 1 | 2 | -3 | -10 | -14 |
| Past employment | 2 | -5 | 7 | -4 | 12 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -1 | 5 | 3 | -2 |
| General outlook | -4 | -13 | -11 | -17 | -28 |
| Professional, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 90 | 91 | 91 | 74 |
| Past activity | -1 | -33 | -9 | 2 | 2 |
| Expected activity | -2 | -10 | -13 | -15 | -38 |
| Expected demand | -6 | -14 | -15 | -16 | -41 |
| Past employment | 1 | -18 | -5 | -7 | -9 |
| Expected employment | 0 | -13 | -11 | -7 | -21 |
| General outlook | -9 | -17 | -18 | -19 | -40 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 100 | 100 | 93 | 79 |
| Past activity | 5 | -27 | 7 | 19 | 14 |
| Expected activity | 5 | 11 | 6 | -5 | -26 |
| Expected demand | 3 | 11 | 4 | -8 | -32 |
| Past employment | 8 | -24 | 8 | 14 | 17 |
| Expected employment | 7 | 11 | 11 | 3 | -1 |
| General outlook | -4 | -5 | -12 | -17 | -39 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 17 December 2020 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting mode of non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. The results are now computed on the sole basis of responding companies.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 17 December 2020 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
