30 October 2020
2020- n° 278In Q3 2020, GDP bounced back (+18.2%) but remained well below its pre-crisis level
(–4.3% over one year) Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - third quarter 2020
In Q3 2020, GDP in volume terms bounced back: +18.2% after –13.7% in Q2 2020. Nevertheless, GDP remained well below the level it had before the health crisis: measured in volume, compared to its level in Q3 2019 (year-on-year), GDP of Q3 2020 was 4.3% lower.
All components of domestic demand rebounded sharply in Q3. In particular, household consumption expenditure (+17.3% in Q3) was close to its pre-crisis level (–2.1% year-on-year), while general government expenditure slightly exceeded it (+0.4% year-on-year). On the other hand, total GFCF remained sharply down (–5.1% year-on-year), despite rebounding in Q3 (+23.3%). Overall, total domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) contributed +18.9 points to GDP growth this quarter. Foreign trade also rebounded this quarter, especially exports (+23.2% after –25.7%). Imports also increased, but in a less pronounced manner (+16.0% after –17.1%). Overall, foreign trade made a positive contribution to GDP growth: +1.2 points, after -2.4 points in Q2. Finally, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (-1.9 points after 0.9 points).
The first release of Q3 2020 continues the methodological changes implemented in previous publications to measure the effects of the current health and economic crisis and the economic policy measures taken to contain them. These methodological changes are detailed in the note attached to this release. Given the strong economic fluctuations in recent quarters, year-on-year evolutions are a better reflection of third-quarter activity than quarterly evolutions, and are highlighted in the commentary to this publication. The tables have been duplicated to show both quarterly evolutions (Q/Q-1) and year-on-year evolutions (Q/Q-4).
- Total production bounced back in Q3, but only non-market services return to last year's level
- Household consumption in services remained below the previous year's level
- Investment rebounded sharply in Q3 but remained well below the previous year's level
- Exports have restarted but remained more impacted than imports
- Stocks decreased in Q3
- Revisions
- To go further
In Q3 2020, GDP in volume terms bounced back: +18.2% after –13.7% in Q2 2020. Nevertheless, GDP remained well below the level it had before the health crisis: measured in volume, compared to its level in Q3 2019 (year-on-year), GDP of Q3 2020 was 4.3% lower.
All components of domestic demand rebounded sharply in Q3. In particular, household consumption expenditure (+17.3% in Q3) was close to its pre-crisis level (–2.1% year-on-year), while general government expenditure slightly exceeded it (+0.4% year-on-year). On the other hand, total GFCF remained sharply down (–5.1% year-on-year), despite rebounding in Q3 (+23.3%). Overall, total domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) contributed +18.9 points to GDP growth this quarter. Foreign trade also rebounded this quarter, especially exports (+23.2% after –25.7%). Imports also increased, but in a less pronounced manner (+16.0% after –17.1%). Overall, foreign trade made a positive contribution to GDP growth: +1.2 points, after -2.4 points in Q2. Finally, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (-1.9 points after 0.9 points).
tableau – GDP - volumes measured at chain-linked prices of the previous year, SA-WDA
PIB | |
---|---|
2005-Q1 | 492333 |
2005-Q2 | 493181 |
2005-Q3 | 495695 |
2005-Q4 | 499433 |
2006-Q1 | 503314 |
2006-Q2 | 508386 |
2006-Q3 | 508408 |
2006-Q4 | 512539 |
2007-Q1 | 516271 |
2007-Q2 | 520295 |
2007-Q3 | 522018 |
2007-Q4 | 523210 |
2008-Q1 | 525557 |
2008-Q2 | 523086 |
2008-Q3 | 521446 |
2008-Q4 | 514164 |
2009-Q1 | 505620 |
2009-Q2 | 505103 |
2009-Q3 | 505887 |
2009-Q4 | 509561 |
2010-Q1 | 511519 |
2010-Q2 | 514156 |
2010-Q3 | 517146 |
2010-Q4 | 520755 |
2011-Q1 | 526169 |
2011-Q2 | 526400 |
2011-Q3 | 527891 |
2011-Q4 | 529120 |
2012-Q1 | 529734 |
2012-Q2 | 528727 |
2012-Q3 | 529731 |
2012-Q4 | 529345 |
2013-Q1 | 529227 |
2013-Q2 | 532810 |
2013-Q3 | 532862 |
2013-Q4 | 535477 |
2014-Q1 | 536224 |
2014-Q2 | 536622 |
2014-Q3 | 538923 |
2014-Q4 | 539582 |
2015-Q1 | 542423 |
2015-Q2 | 542233 |
2015-Q3 | 544153 |
2015-Q4 | 544709 |
2016-Q1 | 548542 |
2016-Q2 | 547194 |
2016-Q3 | 548530 |
2016-Q4 | 551627 |
2017-Q1 | 556118 |
2017-Q2 | 560104 |
2017-Q3 | 564137 |
2017-Q4 | 568783 |
2018-Q1 | 569577 |
2018-Q2 | 570729 |
2018-Q3 | 572959 |
2018-Q4 | 576516 |
2019-Q1 | 579696 |
2019-Q2 | 581172 |
2019-Q3 | 582148 |
2019-Q4 | 580821 |
2020-Q1 | 546287 |
2020-Q2 | 471284 |
2020-Q3 | 557205 |
graphique – GDP - volumes measured at chain-linked prices of the previous year, SA-WDA

- Source: INSEE
tableauGDP and its main components
2019 Q4 | 2020 Q1 | 2020 Q2 | 2020 Q3 | 2019 | 2020 (ovhg) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | -0.2 | -5.9 | -13.7 | 18.2 | 1.5 | -8.3 |
Imports | -0.8 | -5.7 | -17.1 | 16.0 | 2.6 | -11.7 |
Household consumption expenditure | 0.2 | -5.7 | -11.6 | 17.3 | 1.5 | -6.3 |
General government’s consumption expenditure | 0.4 | -3.3 | -10.4 | 15.4 | 1.7 | -3.5 |
GFCF | 0.3 | -10.4 | -14.3 | 23.3 | 4.3 | -10.1 |
Exports | -0.9 | -6.6 | -25.7 | 23.2 | 1.8 | -17.4 |
Contributions: | ||||||
Internal demand excluding inventory changes | 0.3 | -6.4 | -12.2 | 18.9 | 2.2 | -6.6 |
Inventory changes | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | -1.9 | -0.4 | 0.0 |
Net foreign trade | 0.0 | -0.2 | -2.4 | 1.2 | -0.3 | -1.7 |
- This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
- Source: Insee
tableauGDP and its main components – year-on-year change
2019 T4 | 2020 T1 | 2020 T2 | 2020 T3 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
GDP | 0.7 | -5.8 | -18.9 | -4.3 |
Imports | 1.1 | -5.8 | -21.9 | -9.9 |
Household consumption expenditure | 1.6 | -4.8 | -16.1 | -2.1 |
General government’s consumption expenditure | 1.7 | -1.9 | -12.5 | 0.4 |
GFCF | 4.0 | -7.9 | -22.1 | -5.1 |
Exports | -1.2 | -8.3 | -31.5 | -15.2 |
Contributions: | ||||
Internal demand excluding inventory changes | 2.2 | -4.9 | -16.9 | -2.1 |
Inventory changes | -0.7 | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.6 |
Net foreign trade | -0.8 | -0.8 | -2.9 | -1.6 |
- This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
- Source: Insee
Total production bounced back in Q3, but only non-market services return to last year's level
Total production in goods and services rebounded by 17.6% in the Q2 after –13.9%. However, it did not return to its pre-crisis level and remained 4.8% below the level in Q3 2019. In particular, by branch, production in goods remained well below the pre-crisis level (–8.0% year-on-year), especially in the manufacturing branches (–9.5% year-on-year). Services were closer to their pre-crisis level in Q3 (–3.8% year-on-year), carried in particular by non-market services (public administration, human health, see methodological note), whose production was slightly above last year's levels (+0.8% year-on-year). Market services remained more depressed (–4.9% year-on-year), especially in transport and accommodation and food services.
tableauProduction, consumption and GFCF: main components
2019 Q4 | 2020 Q1 | 2020 Q2 | 2020 Q3 | 2019 | 2020 (ovhg) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Production of branches | -0.4 | -5.6 | -13.9 | 17.6 | 1.5 | -8.5 |
Goods | -1.5 | -5.7 | -16.9 | 19.1 | -0.3 | -11.5 |
Manufactured industry | -1.6 | -6.8 | -20.4 | 23.8 | -0.2 | -13.6 |
Construction | -0.1 | -12.8 | -19.3 | 35.5 | 2.6 | -12.7 |
Market services | -0.2 | -5.1 | -12.6 | 14.9 | 2.2 | -7.8 |
Non-market services | 0.4 | -3.8 | -11.2 | 17.6 | 1.2 | -3.8 |
Household consumption | 0.2 | -5.7 | -11.6 | 17.3 | 1.5 | -6.3 |
Food products | 0.2 | 2.8 | -0.5 | -3.3 | -1.3 | 0.6 |
Energy | -1.0 | -3.6 | -11.7 | 16.9 | -0.1 | -5.6 |
Engineered goods | 1.0 | -15.9 | -11.7 | 38.9 | 1.7 | -7.5 |
Services | 0.3 | -5.7 | -16.5 | 20.2 | 2.0 | -8.9 |
GFCF | 0.3 | -10.4 | -14.3 | 23.3 | 4.3 | -10.1 |
Manufactured goods | -0.5 | -13.0 | -16.7 | 33.9 | 4.0 | -11.2 |
Construction | -0.1 | -14.6 | -20.5 | 38.4 | 3.7 | -14.1 |
Market services | 1.2 | -4.0 | -6.4 | 4.7 | 5.3 | -4.6 |
- Source : Insee
tableauProduction, consumption and GFCF: main components – year-on-year change
2019 T4 | 2020 T1 | 2020 T2 | 2020 T3 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Production of branches | 0.4 | -5.8 | -19.0 | -4.8 |
Goods | -2.3 | -8.1 | -23.3 | -8.0 |
Manufactured industry | -2.4 | -9.3 | -27.3 | -9.5 |
Construction | 1.9 | -11.8 | -29.4 | -4.8 |
Market services | 1.2 | -4.7 | -17.0 | -4.9 |
Non-market services | 1.3 | -2.7 | -13.8 | 0.8 |
Household consumption | 1.6 | -4.8 | -16.1 | -2.1 |
Food products | -1.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | -0.9 |
Energy | 0.0 | -4.2 | -16.1 | -1.5 |
Engineered goods | 3.4 | -14.2 | -23.7 | 4.2 |
Services | 1.9 | -4.5 | -20.6 | -5.0 |
GFCF | 4.0 | -7.9 | -22.1 | -5.1 |
Manufactured goods | 3.7 | -11.5 | -27.0 | -3.4 |
Construction | 3.1 | -12.8 | -31.6 | -6.2 |
Market services | 5.2 | 0.1 | -7.6 | -4.8 |
- Source: Insee
Household consumption in services remained below the previous year's level
Household consumption expenditure rebounded by +17.3% in Q3 2020 (after –11.6% in Q2). The recovery that began at the end of the second quarter continued at the beginning of the third quarter, carried in particular by catch-up effects on goods. Indeed, household consumption in goods was higher than last year (+1.3% year-on-year), in particular regarding consumption of manufactured goods (+38.9% in quarterly growth, +4.2% year-on-year). On the contrary, household consumption in services remained well below its pre-crisis level (–5.0% year-on-year). Finally, household consumption remained below its last year's level (–2.1% year-on-year).
Investment rebounded sharply in Q3 but remained well below the previous year's level
In Q3 2020, total GFCF rebounded by +23.3% (after –14.3% in Q2) but remained below the pre-crisis level (–5.1% year-on-year). Construction investment was the most affected and remained 6.2% below its last year’s level.
Exports have restarted but remained more impacted than imports
In Q3 2020, exports rebounded more than imports (+23.2% after –25.7% and +16.0% after –17.1% respectively). Foreign trade made a positive contribution to GDP growth in Q3 (+1.2 points after –2.4 points). However, exports remained well below their pre-crisis levels (–15.2% year-on-year), more than imports (–9.9% year-on-year). Indeed, the sectors that are buoyant for French exports (aeronautics, international tourism, etc.) are particularly affected by the health crisis. Foreign trade made a negative contribution to year-on-year GDP growth (–1.6 points).
Stocks decreased in Q3
In Q3 2020, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (-1.9 points after +0.9 points in Q2 and +0,7 points in Q1).
tableauHouseholds’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account
2019 Q4 | 2020 Q1 | 2020 Q2 | 2020 Q3 | 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
HDI | 0.8 | -0.8 | -2.7 | 3.1 | |
HDI (purchasing power) | 0.5 | -1.0 | -2.4 | 2.1 | |
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) | 0.3 | -1.1 | -2.6 | 1.5 | |
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) | 0.5 | -1.6 | -4.7 | 2.0 | |
Saving rate (level) | 15.0 | 19.1 | 26.7 | 14.9 | |
Financial saving rate (level) | 4.5 | 9.9 | 18.9 | 4.6 |
- * cu: consumption unit
- Source: Insee
tableauRatios of non-financial corporations’s account
2019 Q4 | 2020 Q1 | 2020 Q2 | 2020 Q3 | 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Profit share | 33.5 | 29.9 | 28.3 | 33.2 | |
Investment ratio | 24.8 | 24.4 | 25.9 | 24.5 | |
Savings ratio | 23.9 | 20.2 | 16.9 | 23.2 | |
Self-financing ratio | 96.4 | 82.7 | 65.2 | 94.7 |
- Source: Insee
tableauExpenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations
2019 Q4 | 2020 Q1 | 2020 Q2 | 2020 Q3 | 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
In billions of euros | |||||
Total expenditure | 339.7 | 336.7 | 341.3 | 1348.1 | |
Total receipts | 317.2 | 306.9 | 280.3 | 1275.0 | |
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -22.4 | -29.8 | -61.0 | -73.1 | |
In % of GDP | |||||
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) | -3.7 | -5.1 | -11.9 | -3.0 |
- Source : Insee
Revisions
The GDP growth estimate for Q2 2020 is revised upward by 0.1 points to reach –13.7%. This revision is due to the integration and revisions of indicators.
To go further
Next publication: November 27, 2020 at 08:45 a.m.