Informations rapides
30 October 2020
2020 - n° 278
In Q3 2020, GDP bounced back (+18.2%) but remained well below its pre-crisis level (–4.3% over one year)Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - third quarter 2020

In Q3 2020, GDP in volume terms bounced back: +18.2% after –13.7% in Q2 2020. Nevertheless, GDP remained well below the level it had before the health crisis: measured in volume, compared to its level in Q3 2019 (year-on-year), GDP of Q3 2020 was 4.3% lower.

All components of domestic demand rebounded sharply in Q3. In particular, household consumption expenditure (+17.3% in Q3) was close to its pre-crisis level (–2.1% year-on-year), while general government expenditure slightly exceeded it (+0.4% year-on-year). On the other hand, total GFCF remained sharply down (–5.1% year-on-year), despite rebounding in Q3 (+23.3%). Overall, total domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) contributed +18.9 points to GDP growth this quarter. Foreign trade also rebounded this quarter, especially exports (+23.2% after –25.7%). Imports also increased, but in a less pronounced manner (+16.0% after –17.1%). Overall, foreign trade made a positive contribution to GDP growth: +1.2 points, after -2.4 points in Q2. Finally, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (-1.9 points after 0.9 points).

Informations rapides
No 278
Paru le : Paru le 30/10/2020
Prochaine parution le : 29/10/2021 at 07:30 - third quarter 2021
Warning

The first release of Q3 2020 continues the methodological changes implemented in previous publications to measure the effects of the current health and economic crisis and the economic policy measures taken to contain them. These methodological changes are detailed in the note attached to this release. Given the strong economic fluctuations in recent quarters, year-on-year evolutions are a better reflection of third-quarter activity than quarterly evolutions, and are highlighted in the commentary to this publication. The tables have been duplicated to show both quarterly evolutions (Q/Q-1) and year-on-year evolutions (Q/Q-4).

In Q3 2020, GDP in volume terms bounced back: +18.2% after –13.7% in Q2 2020. Nevertheless, GDP remained well below the level it had before the health crisis: measured in volume, compared to its level in Q3 2019 (year-on-year), GDP of Q3 2020 was 4.3% lower.

All components of domestic demand rebounded sharply in Q3. In particular, household consumption expenditure (+17.3% in Q3) was close to its pre-crisis level (–2.1% year-on-year), while general government expenditure slightly exceeded it (+0.4% year-on-year). On the other hand, total GFCF remained sharply down (–5.1% year-on-year), despite rebounding in Q3 (+23.3%). Overall, total domestic demand (excluding inventory changes) contributed +18.9 points to GDP growth this quarter. Foreign trade also rebounded this quarter, especially exports (+23.2% after –25.7%). Imports also increased, but in a less pronounced manner (+16.0% after –17.1%). Overall, foreign trade made a positive contribution to GDP growth: +1.2 points, after -2.4 points in Q2. Finally, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (-1.9 points after 0.9 points).

GDP - volumes measured at chain-linked prices of the previous year, SA-WDA

GDP - volumes measured at chain-linked prices of the previous year, SA-WDA ()
PIB
2005-Q1 492333
2005-Q2 493181
2005-Q3 495695
2005-Q4 499433
2006-Q1 503314
2006-Q2 508386
2006-Q3 508408
2006-Q4 512539
2007-Q1 516271
2007-Q2 520295
2007-Q3 522018
2007-Q4 523210
2008-Q1 525557
2008-Q2 523086
2008-Q3 521446
2008-Q4 514164
2009-Q1 505620
2009-Q2 505103
2009-Q3 505887
2009-Q4 509561
2010-Q1 511519
2010-Q2 514156
2010-Q3 517146
2010-Q4 520755
2011-Q1 526169
2011-Q2 526400
2011-Q3 527891
2011-Q4 529120
2012-Q1 529734
2012-Q2 528727
2012-Q3 529731
2012-Q4 529345
2013-Q1 529227
2013-Q2 532810
2013-Q3 532862
2013-Q4 535477
2014-Q1 536224
2014-Q2 536622
2014-Q3 538923
2014-Q4 539582
2015-Q1 542423
2015-Q2 542233
2015-Q3 544153
2015-Q4 544709
2016-Q1 548542
2016-Q2 547194
2016-Q3 548530
2016-Q4 551627
2017-Q1 556118
2017-Q2 560104
2017-Q3 564137
2017-Q4 568783
2018-Q1 569577
2018-Q2 570729
2018-Q3 572959
2018-Q4 576516
2019-Q1 579696
2019-Q2 581172
2019-Q3 582148
2019-Q4 580821
2020-Q1 546287
2020-Q2 471284
2020-Q3 557205

GDP - volumes measured at chain-linked prices of the previous year, SA-WDA

  • Source: INSEE

GDP and its main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2019 2020 (ovhg)
GDP -0.2 -5.9 -13.7 18.2 1.5 -8.3
Imports -0.8 -5.7 -17.1 16.0 2.6 -11.7
Household consumption expenditure 0.2 -5.7 -11.6 17.3 1.5 -6.3
General government’s consumption expenditure 0.4 -3.3 -10.4 15.4 1.7 -3.5
GFCF 0.3 -10.4 -14.3 23.3 4.3 -10.1
Exports -0.9 -6.6 -25.7 23.2 1.8 -17.4
Contributions:
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.3 -6.4 -12.2 18.9 2.2 -6.6
Inventory changes -0.5 0.7 0.9 -1.9 -0.4 0.0
Net foreign trade 0.0 -0.2 -2.4 1.2 -0.3 -1.7
  • This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
  • Source: Insee

GDP and its main components – year-on-year change

percentage change, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components – year-on-year change (percentage change, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2019 T4 2020 T1 2020 T2 2020 T3
GDP 0.7 -5.8 -18.9 -4.3
Imports 1.1 -5.8 -21.9 -9.9
Household consumption expenditure 1.6 -4.8 -16.1 -2.1
General government’s consumption expenditure 1.7 -1.9 -12.5 0.4
GFCF 4.0 -7.9 -22.1 -5.1
Exports -1.2 -8.3 -31.5 -15.2
Contributions:
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 2.2 -4.9 -16.9 -2.1
Inventory changes -0.7 -0.1 0.8 -0.6
Net foreign trade -0.8 -0.8 -2.9 -1.6
  • This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
  • Source: Insee

Total production bounced back in Q3, but only non-market services return to last year's level

Total production in goods and services rebounded by 17.6% in the Q2 after –13.9%. However, it did not return to its pre-crisis level and remained 4.8% below the level in Q3 2019. In particular, by branch, production in goods remained well below the pre-crisis level (–8.0% year-on-year), especially in the manufacturing branches (–9.5% year-on-year). Services were closer to their pre-crisis level in Q3 (–3.8% year-on-year), carried in particular by non-market services (public administration, human health, see methodological note), whose production was slightly above last year's levels (+0.8% year-on-year). Market services remained more depressed (–4.9% year-on-year), especially in transport and accommodation and food services.

Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2019 2020 (ovhg)
Production of branches -0.4 -5.6 -13.9 17.6 1.5 -8.5
Goods -1.5 -5.7 -16.9 19.1 -0.3 -11.5
Manufactured industry -1.6 -6.8 -20.4 23.8 -0.2 -13.6
Construction -0.1 -12.8 -19.3 35.5 2.6 -12.7
Market services -0.2 -5.1 -12.6 14.9 2.2 -7.8
Non-market services 0.4 -3.8 -11.2 17.6 1.2 -3.8
Household consumption 0.2 -5.7 -11.6 17.3 1.5 -6.3
Food products 0.2 2.8 -0.5 -3.3 -1.3 0.6
Energy -1.0 -3.6 -11.7 16.9 -0.1 -5.6
Engineered goods 1.0 -15.9 -11.7 38.9 1.7 -7.5
Services 0.3 -5.7 -16.5 20.2 2.0 -8.9
GFCF 0.3 -10.4 -14.3 23.3 4.3 -10.1
Manufactured goods -0.5 -13.0 -16.7 33.9 4.0 -11.2
Construction -0.1 -14.6 -20.5 38.4 3.7 -14.1
Market services 1.2 -4.0 -6.4 4.7 5.3 -4.6
  • Source : Insee

Production, consumption and GFCF: main components – year-on-year change

percentage change, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components – year-on-year change (percentage change, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2019 T4 2020 T1 2020 T2 2020 T3
Production of branches 0.4 -5.8 -19.0 -4.8
Goods -2.3 -8.1 -23.3 -8.0
Manufactured industry -2.4 -9.3 -27.3 -9.5
Construction 1.9 -11.8 -29.4 -4.8
Market services 1.2 -4.7 -17.0 -4.9
Non-market services 1.3 -2.7 -13.8 0.8
Household consumption 1.6 -4.8 -16.1 -2.1
Food products -1.1 2.6 1.8 -0.9
Energy 0.0 -4.2 -16.1 -1.5
Engineered goods 3.4 -14.2 -23.7 4.2
Services 1.9 -4.5 -20.6 -5.0
GFCF 4.0 -7.9 -22.1 -5.1
Manufactured goods 3.7 -11.5 -27.0 -3.4
Construction 3.1 -12.8 -31.6 -6.2
Market services 5.2 0.1 -7.6 -4.8
  • Source: Insee

Household consumption in services remained below the previous year's level

Household consumption expenditure rebounded by +17.3% in Q3 2020 (after –11.6% in Q2). The recovery that began at the end of the second quarter continued at the beginning of the third quarter, carried in particular by catch-up effects on goods. Indeed, household consumption in goods was higher than last year (+1.3% year-on-year), in particular regarding consumption of manufactured goods (+38.9% in quarterly growth, +4.2% year-on-year). On the contrary, household consumption in services remained well below its pre-crisis level (–5.0% year-on-year). Finally, household consumption remained below its last year's level (–2.1% year-on-year).

Investment rebounded sharply in Q3 but remained well below the previous year's level

In Q3 2020, total GFCF rebounded by +23.3% (after –14.3% in Q2) but remained below the pre-crisis level (–5.1% year-on-year). Construction investment was the most affected and remained 6.2% below its last year’s level.

Exports have restarted but remained more impacted than imports

In Q3 2020, exports rebounded more than imports (+23.2% after –25.7% and +16.0% after –17.1% respectively). Foreign trade made a positive contribution to GDP growth in Q3 (+1.2 points after –2.4 points). However, exports remained well below their pre-crisis levels (–15.2% year-on-year), more than imports (–9.9% year-on-year). Indeed, the sectors that are buoyant for French exports (aeronautics, international tourism, etc.) are particularly affected by the health crisis. Foreign trade made a negative contribution to year-on-year GDP growth (–1.6 points).

Stocks decreased in Q3

In Q3 2020, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (-1.9 points after +0.9 points in Q2 and +0,7 points in Q1).

Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2019
HDI 0.8 -0.8 -2.7 3.1
HDI (purchasing power) 0.5 -1.0 -2.4 2.1
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.3 -1.1 -2.6 1.5
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.5 -1.6 -4.7 2.0
Saving rate (level) 15.0 19.1 26.7 14.9
Financial saving rate (level) 4.5 9.9 18.9 4.6
  • * cu: consumption unit
  • Source: Insee

Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account (level (in percent), WDA-SA data)
2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2019
Profit share 33.5 29.9 28.3 33.2
Investment ratio 24.8 24.4 25.9 24.5
Savings ratio 23.9 20.2 16.9 23.2
Self-financing ratio 96.4 82.7 65.2 94.7
  • Source: Insee

Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations (level, WDA-SA data)
2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2019
In billions of euros
Total expenditure 339.7 336.7 341.3 1348.1
Total receipts 317.2 306.9 280.3 1275.0
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -22.4 -29.8 -61.0 -73.1
In % of GDP
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -3.7 -5.1 -11.9 -3.0
  • Source : Insee

Revisions

The GDP growth estimate for Q2 2020 is revised upward by 0.1 points to reach –13.7%. This revision is due to the integration and revisions of indicators.

To go further

Next publication: November 27, 2020 at 08:45 a.m.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 434 Ko)

Pour en savoir plus

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