27 October 2020
2020- n° 273In October 2020, the opinion of business managers in civil engineering on their activity
prospects has deteriorated strongly Quaterly survey of public works - October 2020
In October 2020, the business managers are much more pessimistic about their activity prospects for the next three months than they were in July.
In October 2020, the business managers are much more pessimistic about their activity prospects for the next three months than they were in July.
Business managers indicate that activity prospects have darkened
In October 2020, much more business managers than in July have indicated an expected decrease in their activity for the next three months. The corresponding balance of opinion has plummeted well below its long-term average, for both private-sector and public-sector clients.
However, the business managers have indicated a relative recovery in their recent activity: after a particularly low point in July in the aftermath of last spring’s lockdown, the corresponding balance of opinion has sharply picked up returning just above its long-term average. This balance has bounced back for both private-sector clients as public-sector ones. However, the balance related to public-sector clients stays below its long-term average.
The order books are still considered poorly filled
In October 2020, as many business managers as in July have deemed that their order books remain poorly filled: the corresponding balance of opinion is virtually stable at a very low level, far below its long-term average.
Production bottlenecks due to lack of manpower have increased
In October 2020, the obstacles to production due to workforce shortage are more significant than in July. 20% of firms have reported being hampered because of workforce shortage against 13% in July. This share, above its long-term average, is still half of what it was in January (40%).
Employment prospects are unchanged compared to July 2020
In October 2020, as many business managers as in July have planed to increase their workforce in the next three months. The corresponding balance is stable, slightly above its long-term average. It stays nevertheless well below its level at the beginning of the year.
tableauPublic works economic outlook
| Mean.* | Jan. 20 | Apr. 20 | July 20 | Oct. 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past activity | -5 | 21 | NA | -86 | -4 |
| - public-sector project | -11 | 12 | NA | -88 | -17 |
| - private-sector project | -9 | 15 | NA | -84 | -1 |
| Expected activity | -12 | -4 | NA | 14 | -25 |
| - public-sector project | -16 | -13 | NA | 4 | -33 |
| - private-sector project | -15 | -1 | NA | 9 | -24 |
| Opinion on order books | -24 | 10 | NA | -37 | -36 |
| Obstacles to production increase because of workforce shortage (in %) | 16 | 40 | NA | 13 | 20 |
| Expected workforce | -13 | 17 | NA | -9 | -9 |
- Note: the balances of opinion by costumer may differ from the balance of the whole, because sometimes the firms don't distinguish public-sector project and private-sector project.
- * Mean since January 1981
- Source: French business survey, building crafts sector – INSEE and FNTP
tableauActivity tendency in civil engineering
| Past activity | Expected activity | |
|---|---|---|
| 2007-Q1 | 39.0 | 16.9 |
| 2007-Q2 | 39.7 | 21.5 |
| 2007-Q3 | 36.2 | 13.9 |
| 2007-Q4 | 22.8 | 14.6 |
| 2008-Q1 | 20.1 | 2.7 |
| 2008-Q2 | 16.3 | -16.0 |
| 2008-Q3 | -10.8 | -26.0 |
| 2008-Q4 | -30.5 | -47.6 |
| 2009-Q1 | -55.3 | -50.6 |
| 2009-Q2 | -48.8 | -52.0 |
| 2009-Q3 | -50.5 | -34.0 |
| 2009-Q4 | -33.3 | -16.1 |
| 2010-Q1 | -23.1 | -16.7 |
| 2010-Q2 | -33.7 | -20.5 |
| 2010-Q3 | -15.9 | -23.9 |
| 2010-Q4 | -7.9 | -17.9 |
| 2011-Q1 | -32.5 | 0.0 |
| 2011-Q2 | 36.8 | 2.3 |
| 2011-Q3 | 26.5 | 0.1 |
| 2011-Q4 | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 2012-Q1 | 7.0 | -12.4 |
| 2012-Q2 | -12.9 | -6.8 |
| 2012-Q3 | -22.6 | -7.6 |
| 2012-Q4 | -9.8 | -26.5 |
| 2013-Q1 | -11.3 | -13.3 |
| 2013-Q2 | -18.4 | -13.5 |
| 2013-Q3 | -7.4 | -11.9 |
| 2013-Q4 | 3.3 | -15.6 |
| 2014-Q1 | -4.2 | -25.6 |
| 2014-Q2 | 4.2 | -30.4 |
| 2014-Q3 | -45.6 | -48.4 |
| 2014-Q4 | -60.3 | -54.5 |
| 2015-Q1 | -59.9 | -42.3 |
| 2015-Q2 | -50.2 | -43.5 |
| 2015-Q3 | -41.0 | -31.7 |
| 2015-Q4 | -37.5 | -15.0 |
| 2016-Q1 | -18.5 | -15.6 |
| 2016-Q2 | -16.8 | -15.4 |
| 2016-Q3 | -5.6 | -1.0 |
| 2016-Q4 | 9.4 | -5.5 |
| 2017-Q1 | 11.6 | 3.3 |
| 2017-Q2 | 28.8 | 19.5 |
| 2017-Q3 | 37.4 | 27.5 |
| 2017-Q4 | 29.3 | 32.5 |
| 2018-Q1 | 37.1 | 22.7 |
| 2018-Q2 | 29.4 | 32.3 |
| 2018-Q3 | 31.5 | 26.3 |
| 2018-Q4 | 38.4 | 28.6 |
| 2019-Q1 | 34.1 | 26.0 |
| 2019-Q2 | 39.1 | 22.0 |
| 2019-Q3 | 32.5 | 16.3 |
| 2019-Q4 | 23.0 | 13.8 |
| 2020-Q1 | 20.6 | -4.0 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q3 | -86.5 | 14.3 |
| 2020-Q4 | -4.0 | -25.2 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueActivity tendency in civil engineering
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available, the response rate to this survey was greatly affected in April in the context of the health crisis.
- Sources: FNTP and INSEE.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 26 January 2021 at 12:00 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,123 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 26 January 2021 at 12:00 am
