27 October 2020
2020- n° 274In October 2020, the opinion of the business managers of small building firms on their
activity has improved Quarterly survey of the building crafts sector - October 2020
In October 2020, the opinion of the business managers of small building firms on their past activity for the last three months is well much more positive than in July: in comparison to the low level of July, the corresponding balance of opinion has increased strongly and has exceeded its long-term average. To a lesser extent, these business managers are also more optimistic than in July about their expected activity for the next three months: the corresponding balance of opinion has returned above its long-term average.
Likewise, building craftsmen are slightly more confident than in July about the general business outlook in the building sector: the corresponding balance of opinion has risen, thus remaining above its long-term average.
Craftsmen are more positive than in July on their past and expected activity
In October 2020, the opinion of the business managers of small building firms on their past activity for the last three months is well much more positive than in July: in comparison to the low level of July, the corresponding balance of opinion has increased strongly and has exceeded its long-term average. To a lesser extent, these business managers are also more optimistic than in July about their expected activity for the next three months: the corresponding balance of opinion has returned above its long-term average.
Likewise, building craftsmen are slightly more confident than in July about the general business outlook in the building sector: the corresponding balance of opinion has risen, thus remaining above its long-term average.
The balances of opinion on employment have recovered
In October 2020, more business managers of small building firms than in July have reported an increase in their staff size over the last three months but the corresponding balance remains below its long-term average. The balance of opinion on the development of staff size over the next three months has increased strongly in comparison to July and has exceeded its average.
The hiring difficulties have increased slightly
In October 2020, almost one in two business managers of small building firms have experienced recruiting problems – a slightly increasing share compared to July 2020 and higher than its long-term average. At the same time, 39% of building craftsmen have indicated training apprentices. This share, on the rise compared to July, has slightly exceeded its average.
tableauBuilding crafts sector economic outlook
| Mean* | Jan. 20 | Apr. 20 | July 20 | Oct. 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past activity | -6 | -9 | NA | -46 | 1 |
| Expected activity | -8 | 6 | NA | -13 | -5 |
| General business outlook | -19 | 1 | NA | -13 | -10 |
| Past employment | -4 | -2 | NA | -11 | -7 |
| Expected employment | -3 | 1 | NA | -3 | 7 |
| Recruiting problems (in %) | 41 | 54 | NA | 47 | 49 |
| Apprentice training (in %) | 38 | 37 | NA | 36 | 39 |
- * Mean since October 1990.
- Source: French business survey, building crafts sector - INSEE
tableauActivity tendency in the building crafts sector
| Expected activity (three months advanced) | Past activity | |
|---|---|---|
| 2007-Q1 | 4.9 | 6.9 |
| 2007-Q2 | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| 2007-Q3 | 5.5 | 6.1 |
| 2007-Q4 | 5.1 | -2.8 |
| 2008-Q1 | 12.9 | -7.3 |
| 2008-Q2 | -8.8 | -11.9 |
| 2008-Q3 | -14.4 | -16.0 |
| 2008-Q4 | -35.3 | -24.2 |
| 2009-Q1 | -36.7 | -34.5 |
| 2009-Q2 | -25.8 | -15.6 |
| 2009-Q3 | -30.3 | -29.4 |
| 2009-Q4 | -20.9 | -21.9 |
| 2010-Q1 | -17.4 | -20.2 |
| 2010-Q2 | -19.1 | -21.4 |
| 2010-Q3 | -14.6 | -18.6 |
| 2010-Q4 | -6.2 | -9.5 |
| 2011-Q1 | -8.5 | -15.4 |
| 2011-Q2 | -7.2 | -6.5 |
| 2011-Q3 | -11.7 | -9.3 |
| 2011-Q4 | -17.6 | -14.1 |
| 2012-Q1 | -22.6 | -11.2 |
| 2012-Q2 | -21.2 | -15.4 |
| 2012-Q3 | -25.8 | -18.2 |
| 2012-Q4 | -39.4 | -26.0 |
| 2013-Q1 | -24.7 | -24.1 |
| 2013-Q2 | -31.7 | -27.3 |
| 2013-Q3 | -28.6 | -28.6 |
| 2013-Q4 | -24.1 | -24.3 |
| 2014-Q1 | -28.1 | -25.1 |
| 2014-Q2 | -26.1 | -22.2 |
| 2014-Q3 | -29.6 | -31.7 |
| 2014-Q4 | -33.8 | -24.5 |
| 2015-Q1 | -32.4 | -29.8 |
| 2015-Q2 | -30.0 | -29.7 |
| 2015-Q3 | -22.2 | -14.9 |
| 2015-Q4 | -17.1 | -19.6 |
| 2016-Q1 | -16.3 | -9.5 |
| 2016-Q2 | -16.6 | -15.2 |
| 2016-Q3 | -8.0 | -12.2 |
| 2016-Q4 | -8.4 | -5.7 |
| 2017-Q1 | -1.6 | -3.7 |
| 2017-Q2 | -1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2017-Q3 | -3.7 | 1.5 |
| 2017-Q4 | 2.9 | -3.7 |
| 2018-Q1 | 11.1 | 6.4 |
| 2018-Q2 | -2.7 | 5.3 |
| 2018-Q3 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| 2018-Q4 | -2.9 | -1.7 |
| 2019-Q1 | -5.7 | -12.5 |
| 2019-Q2 | -2.2 | -3.8 |
| 2019-Q3 | -5.2 | 6.5 |
| 2019-Q4 | -3.1 | 2.1 |
| 2020-Q1 | 6.2 | -8.5 |
| 2020-Q2 | NaN | NaN |
| 2020-Q3 | -13.2 | -46.3 |
| 2020-Q4 | -5.4 | 1.0 |
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
graphiqueActivity tendency in the building crafts sector
- Data for the second quarter of 2020 are not available as the survey was canceled in the context of the health crisis.
- Source: INSEE.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 28 September and 22 October 2020.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 26 January 2021 at 12:00 am
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
The responses to this survey have been collected between 28 September and 22 October 2020.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of this page.
Next issue: 26 January 2021 at 12:00 am
