22 October 2020
2020- n° 268In October 2020, the French business climate and the employment climate have fallen
back, due to services in particular Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - October 2020
According to the business leaders surveyed between the 28th of September and the 19th of October, business prospects have darkened compared to the previous month. The composite indicator of the French business climate has fallen back by two points. At 90, it has returned to its level of August, significantly below its long term average (100). The decline is marked in services, in particular in accommodation and food services, a sub-sector affected by the strengthening of health containment measures. The decline is more moderate in manufacturing. In retail trade, the business climate is stable. The activity prospects declared by business managers in building industry have also stabilised.
The rebound in the COVID-19 epidemic has weighed on business prospects
According to the business leaders surveyed between the 28th of September and the 19th of October, business prospects have darkened compared to the previous month. The composite indicator of the French business climate has fallen back by two points. At 90, it has returned to its level of August, significantly below its long term average (100). The decline is marked in services, in particular in accommodation and food services, a sub-sector affected by the strengthening of health containment measures. The decline is more moderate in manufacturing. In retail trade, the business climate is stable. The activity prospects declared by business managers in building industry have also stabilised.
tableauFrench business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator | |
---|---|
1998-01 | 109.0 |
1998-02 | 110.2 |
1998-03 | 113.2 |
1998-04 | 111.0 |
1998-05 | 112.1 |
1998-06 | 113.3 |
1998-07 | 112.4 |
1998-08 | 111.6 |
1998-09 | 109.5 |
1998-10 | 107.0 |
1998-11 | 105.0 |
1998-12 | 102.2 |
1999-01 | 102.4 |
1999-02 | 102.4 |
1999-03 | 100.7 |
1999-04 | 101.6 |
1999-05 | 103.4 |
1999-06 | 102.8 |
1999-07 | 107.6 |
1999-08 | 110.5 |
1999-09 | 113.8 |
1999-10 | 115.6 |
1999-11 | 117.1 |
1999-12 | 118.5 |
2000-01 | 115.4 |
2000-02 | 115.9 |
2000-03 | 116.7 |
2000-04 | 116.5 |
2000-05 | 115.8 |
2000-06 | 117.1 |
2000-07 | 116.7 |
2000-08 | 117.3 |
2000-09 | 117.4 |
2000-10 | 116.0 |
2000-11 | 113.8 |
2000-12 | 113.2 |
2001-01 | 112.2 |
2001-02 | 112.1 |
2001-03 | 112.1 |
2001-04 | 107.1 |
2001-05 | 104.9 |
2001-06 | 104.0 |
2001-07 | 101.9 |
2001-08 | 100.5 |
2001-09 | 98.8 |
2001-10 | 94.4 |
2001-11 | 94.5 |
2001-12 | 95.1 |
2002-01 | 96.4 |
2002-02 | 97.0 |
2002-03 | 98.9 |
2002-04 | 102.0 |
2002-05 | 103.2 |
2002-06 | 102.3 |
2002-07 | 99.5 |
2002-08 | 98.8 |
2002-09 | 97.7 |
2002-10 | 96.0 |
2002-11 | 97.4 |
2002-12 | 99.9 |
2003-01 | 96.6 |
2003-02 | 95.6 |
2003-03 | 90.3 |
2003-04 | 88.3 |
2003-05 | 92.9 |
2003-06 | 92.9 |
2003-07 | 95.1 |
2003-08 | 96.0 |
2003-09 | 95.9 |
2003-10 | 96.9 |
2003-11 | 100.9 |
2003-12 | 102.2 |
2004-01 | 105.9 |
2004-02 | 105.0 |
2004-03 | 105.1 |
2004-04 | 105.9 |
2004-05 | 105.8 |
2004-06 | 105.3 |
2004-07 | 106.6 |
2004-08 | 106.8 |
2004-09 | 106.6 |
2004-10 | 107.6 |
2004-11 | 105.2 |
2004-12 | 106.3 |
2005-01 | 105.9 |
2005-02 | 106.1 |
2005-03 | 105.7 |
2005-04 | 104.9 |
2005-05 | 102.7 |
2005-06 | 103.8 |
2005-07 | 104.4 |
2005-08 | 104.3 |
2005-09 | 103.6 |
2005-10 | 106.4 |
2005-11 | 106.4 |
2005-12 | 107.8 |
2006-01 | 109.0 |
2006-02 | 107.2 |
2006-03 | 107.3 |
2006-04 | 108.0 |
2006-05 | 109.6 |
2006-06 | 109.1 |
2006-07 | 110.8 |
2006-08 | 111.0 |
2006-09 | 111.5 |
2006-10 | 111.3 |
2006-11 | 112.2 |
2006-12 | 110.6 |
2007-01 | 110.6 |
2007-02 | 112.2 |
2007-03 | 112.6 |
2007-04 | 113.3 |
2007-05 | 113.8 |
2007-06 | 114.9 |
2007-07 | 114.1 |
2007-08 | 112.9 |
2007-09 | 112.1 |
2007-10 | 111.3 |
2007-11 | 111.5 |
2007-12 | 111.2 |
2008-01 | 110.0 |
2008-02 | 108.6 |
2008-03 | 108.3 |
2008-04 | 105.6 |
2008-05 | 102.9 |
2008-06 | 100.1 |
2008-07 | 96.1 |
2008-08 | 94.8 |
2008-09 | 92.1 |
2008-10 | 83.7 |
2008-11 | 80.3 |
2008-12 | 76.8 |
2009-01 | 75.2 |
2009-02 | 72.9 |
2009-03 | 70.0 |
2009-04 | 71.1 |
2009-05 | 74.6 |
2009-06 | 77.4 |
2009-07 | 79.4 |
2009-08 | 83.1 |
2009-09 | 86.5 |
2009-10 | 89.0 |
2009-11 | 91.2 |
2009-12 | 91.7 |
2010-01 | 93.7 |
2010-02 | 94.1 |
2010-03 | 93.5 |
2010-04 | 97.6 |
2010-05 | 98.6 |
2010-06 | 98.2 |
2010-07 | 100.3 |
2010-08 | 102.6 |
2010-09 | 104.1 |
2010-10 | 105.1 |
2010-11 | 105.3 |
2010-12 | 107.0 |
2011-01 | 107.9 |
2011-02 | 108.5 |
2011-03 | 109.5 |
2011-04 | 109.2 |
2011-05 | 108.2 |
2011-06 | 108.4 |
2011-07 | 106.3 |
2011-08 | 101.2 |
2011-09 | 98.0 |
2011-10 | 96.8 |
2011-11 | 94.9 |
2011-12 | 93.6 |
2012-01 | 92.8 |
2012-02 | 92.8 |
2012-03 | 95.3 |
2012-04 | 95.9 |
2012-05 | 92.5 |
2012-06 | 91.5 |
2012-07 | 89.4 |
2012-08 | 89.0 |
2012-09 | 87.4 |
2012-10 | 85.5 |
2012-11 | 87.3 |
2012-12 | 88.0 |
2013-01 | 87.9 |
2013-02 | 87.8 |
2013-03 | 86.0 |
2013-04 | 84.5 |
2013-05 | 85.6 |
2013-06 | 86.7 |
2013-07 | 88.6 |
2013-08 | 91.8 |
2013-09 | 94.9 |
2013-10 | 94.5 |
2013-11 | 93.7 |
2013-12 | 93.6 |
2014-01 | 94.2 |
2014-02 | 94.1 |
2014-03 | 95.4 |
2014-04 | 95.2 |
2014-05 | 94.9 |
2014-06 | 93.7 |
2014-07 | 93.1 |
2014-08 | 91.9 |
2014-09 | 91.2 |
2014-10 | 91.3 |
2014-11 | 93.1 |
2014-12 | 93.3 |
2015-01 | 93.7 |
2015-02 | 94.5 |
2015-03 | 95.6 |
2015-04 | 96.6 |
2015-05 | 97.5 |
2015-06 | 98.4 |
2015-07 | 98.8 |
2015-08 | 100.3 |
2015-09 | 100.0 |
2015-10 | 100.9 |
2015-11 | 101.0 |
2015-12 | 99.6 |
2016-01 | 101.4 |
2016-02 | 100.4 |
2016-03 | 100.5 |
2016-04 | 100.5 |
2016-05 | 102.3 |
2016-06 | 100.7 |
2016-07 | 101.3 |
2016-08 | 100.9 |
2016-09 | 101.3 |
2016-10 | 101.5 |
2016-11 | 101.8 |
2016-12 | 104.1 |
2017-01 | 103.8 |
2017-02 | 104.2 |
2017-03 | 104.2 |
2017-04 | 104.4 |
2017-05 | 105.4 |
2017-06 | 107.0 |
2017-07 | 107.8 |
2017-08 | 108.7 |
2017-09 | 109.2 |
2017-10 | 109.1 |
2017-11 | 110.5 |
2017-12 | 111.4 |
2018-01 | 110.7 |
2018-02 | 109.7 |
2018-03 | 109.4 |
2018-04 | 108.6 |
2018-05 | 106.8 |
2018-06 | 106.6 |
2018-07 | 105.9 |
2018-08 | 105.3 |
2018-09 | 105.2 |
2018-10 | 104.0 |
2018-11 | 104.6 |
2018-12 | 101.7 |
2019-01 | 102.2 |
2019-02 | 103.3 |
2019-03 | 104.8 |
2019-04 | 105.4 |
2019-05 | 106.1 |
2019-06 | 106.3 |
2019-07 | 105.2 |
2019-08 | 105.5 |
2019-09 | 106.4 |
2019-10 | 105.6 |
2019-11 | 105.9 |
2019-12 | 105.1 |
2020-01 | 104.8 |
2020-02 | 105.1 |
2020-03 | 94.5 |
2020-04 | 53.4 |
2020-05 | 60.2 |
2020-06 | 78.5 |
2020-07 | 84.2 |
2020-08 | 90.4 |
2020-09 | 91.9 |
2020-10 | 90.3 |
graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator
tableauBusiness and employment climates
June 20 | July 20 | Aug. 20 | Sept. 20 | Oct. 20 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business climates | |||||
France | 79 | 84 | 90 | 92 | 90 |
Manufacturing | 78 | 82 | 92 | 94 | 93 |
Building construction* | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
Services | 78 | 88 | 93 | 94 | 89 |
Retail trade | 84 | 88 | 93 | 95 | 95 |
Wholesale trade | 79 | 92 | |||
Employment | 67 | 76 | 88 | 92 | 89 |
- * c.f. « For further information »
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
Renewed pessimism about employment in the tertiary sector
In October 2020, with the rebound in the COVID-19 epidemic, the employment climate has deteriorated, putting a halt to the continuous and sustained recovery observed since May. At 89, it has lost three points compared to September and remains far below its level before crisis (above 105).
This deterioration is mainly due to the decrease in the balances of opinion on the expected change in staff size in tertiary sectors (services and retail trade), in particular in services exclusive of temporary work agencies.
tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator | |
---|---|
1998-01 | 102.4 |
1998-02 | 104.0 |
1998-03 | 105.7 |
1998-04 | 107.2 |
1998-05 | 107.7 |
1998-06 | 108.7 |
1998-07 | 109.9 |
1998-08 | 108.3 |
1998-09 | 106.7 |
1998-10 | 105.8 |
1998-11 | 105.5 |
1998-12 | 104.9 |
1999-01 | 104.2 |
1999-02 | 105.5 |
1999-03 | 106.6 |
1999-04 | 107.8 |
1999-05 | 108.0 |
1999-06 | 108.6 |
1999-07 | 109.3 |
1999-08 | 111.7 |
1999-09 | 114.1 |
1999-10 | 116.2 |
1999-11 | 117.0 |
1999-12 | 117.5 |
2000-01 | 117.9 |
2000-02 | 116.1 |
2000-03 | 114.3 |
2000-04 | 112.6 |
2000-05 | 116.0 |
2000-06 | 119.3 |
2000-07 | 116.6 |
2000-08 | 118.2 |
2000-09 | 119.1 |
2000-10 | 119.3 |
2000-11 | 121.3 |
2000-12 | 119.8 |
2001-01 | 117.8 |
2001-02 | 118.4 |
2001-03 | 117.5 |
2001-04 | 116.4 |
2001-05 | 112.7 |
2001-06 | 110.9 |
2001-07 | 107.5 |
2001-08 | 107.8 |
2001-09 | 107.5 |
2001-10 | 108.3 |
2001-11 | 103.1 |
2001-12 | 105.1 |
2002-01 | 102.8 |
2002-02 | 101.1 |
2002-03 | 102.6 |
2002-04 | 106.7 |
2002-05 | 104.4 |
2002-06 | 103.1 |
2002-07 | 103.9 |
2002-08 | 101.7 |
2002-09 | 98.9 |
2002-10 | 95.5 |
2002-11 | 98.6 |
2002-12 | 97.5 |
2003-01 | 98.4 |
2003-02 | 96.6 |
2003-03 | 93.2 |
2003-04 | 92.0 |
2003-05 | 91.2 |
2003-06 | 93.5 |
2003-07 | 94.4 |
2003-08 | 95.1 |
2003-09 | 95.2 |
2003-10 | 95.7 |
2003-11 | 95.0 |
2003-12 | 97.7 |
2004-01 | 99.2 |
2004-02 | 98.0 |
2004-03 | 101.1 |
2004-04 | 101.4 |
2004-05 | 104.1 |
2004-06 | 101.3 |
2004-07 | 102.1 |
2004-08 | 102.0 |
2004-09 | 101.7 |
2004-10 | 103.1 |
2004-11 | 103.3 |
2004-12 | 102.2 |
2005-01 | 102.5 |
2005-02 | 102.2 |
2005-03 | 104.7 |
2005-04 | 102.4 |
2005-05 | 103.0 |
2005-06 | 102.4 |
2005-07 | 102.8 |
2005-08 | 103.4 |
2005-09 | 103.8 |
2005-10 | 104.1 |
2005-11 | 103.9 |
2005-12 | 103.3 |
2006-01 | 104.1 |
2006-02 | 104.1 |
2006-03 | 104.7 |
2006-04 | 107.0 |
2006-05 | 108.1 |
2006-06 | 110.1 |
2006-07 | 109.8 |
2006-08 | 109.1 |
2006-09 | 108.0 |
2006-10 | 109.0 |
2006-11 | 110.4 |
2006-12 | 111.0 |
2007-01 | 109.3 |
2007-02 | 111.3 |
2007-03 | 111.0 |
2007-04 | 111.6 |
2007-05 | 113.2 |
2007-06 | 112.8 |
2007-07 | 111.1 |
2007-08 | 112.5 |
2007-09 | 113.2 |
2007-10 | 111.5 |
2007-11 | 113.0 |
2007-12 | 114.5 |
2008-01 | 113.8 |
2008-02 | 113.8 |
2008-03 | 112.2 |
2008-04 | 112.4 |
2008-05 | 108.3 |
2008-06 | 104.8 |
2008-07 | 105.6 |
2008-08 | 101.0 |
2008-09 | 99.8 |
2008-10 | 95.4 |
2008-11 | 88.5 |
2008-12 | 83.6 |
2009-01 | 81.2 |
2009-02 | 79.6 |
2009-03 | 74.0 |
2009-04 | 74.6 |
2009-05 | 73.7 |
2009-06 | 74.8 |
2009-07 | 78.5 |
2009-08 | 83.2 |
2009-09 | 82.4 |
2009-10 | 84.5 |
2009-11 | 86.8 |
2009-12 | 89.1 |
2010-01 | 90.4 |
2010-02 | 90.9 |
2010-03 | 93.4 |
2010-04 | 95.6 |
2010-05 | 97.5 |
2010-06 | 98.5 |
2010-07 | 98.9 |
2010-08 | 99.3 |
2010-09 | 100.8 |
2010-10 | 103.5 |
2010-11 | 104.5 |
2010-12 | 105.3 |
2011-01 | 103.9 |
2011-02 | 109.9 |
2011-03 | 108.9 |
2011-04 | 109.1 |
2011-05 | 110.6 |
2011-06 | 110.8 |
2011-07 | 109.2 |
2011-08 | 105.2 |
2011-09 | 103.4 |
2011-10 | 100.5 |
2011-11 | 100.6 |
2011-12 | 98.9 |
2012-01 | 97.7 |
2012-02 | 97.3 |
2012-03 | 98.9 |
2012-04 | 97.7 |
2012-05 | 95.1 |
2012-06 | 94.0 |
2012-07 | 92.6 |
2012-08 | 93.6 |
2012-09 | 91.5 |
2012-10 | 91.9 |
2012-11 | 90.4 |
2012-12 | 90.0 |
2013-01 | 92.5 |
2013-02 | 89.4 |
2013-03 | 88.6 |
2013-04 | 87.1 |
2013-05 | 86.6 |
2013-06 | 89.2 |
2013-07 | 90.3 |
2013-08 | 91.0 |
2013-09 | 92.4 |
2013-10 | 94.7 |
2013-11 | 93.2 |
2013-12 | 95.2 |
2014-01 | 95.4 |
2014-02 | 94.7 |
2014-03 | 95.5 |
2014-04 | 98.1 |
2014-05 | 97.1 |
2014-06 | 95.5 |
2014-07 | 95.9 |
2014-08 | 94.6 |
2014-09 | 94.7 |
2014-10 | 94.7 |
2014-11 | 94.5 |
2014-12 | 94.8 |
2015-01 | 94.0 |
2015-02 | 96.1 |
2015-03 | 95.5 |
2015-04 | 97.6 |
2015-05 | 97.6 |
2015-06 | 99.3 |
2015-07 | 99.8 |
2015-08 | 100.6 |
2015-09 | 100.3 |
2015-10 | 100.7 |
2015-11 | 101.6 |
2015-12 | 100.9 |
2016-01 | 102.0 |
2016-02 | 100.7 |
2016-03 | 99.7 |
2016-04 | 100.6 |
2016-05 | 102.2 |
2016-06 | 101.6 |
2016-07 | 104.0 |
2016-08 | 103.3 |
2016-09 | 104.6 |
2016-10 | 104.8 |
2016-11 | 104.9 |
2016-12 | 106.5 |
2017-01 | 105.3 |
2017-02 | 104.5 |
2017-03 | 107.3 |
2017-04 | 106.4 |
2017-05 | 107.2 |
2017-06 | 107.7 |
2017-07 | 107.2 |
2017-08 | 105.7 |
2017-09 | 106.8 |
2017-10 | 108.3 |
2017-11 | 108.2 |
2017-12 | 108.8 |
2018-01 | 109.2 |
2018-02 | 109.9 |
2018-03 | 109.7 |
2018-04 | 108.9 |
2018-05 | 109.2 |
2018-06 | 109.8 |
2018-07 | 108.2 |
2018-08 | 107.5 |
2018-09 | 107.2 |
2018-10 | 106.9 |
2018-11 | 105.4 |
2018-12 | 104.9 |
2019-01 | 105.2 |
2019-02 | 107.0 |
2019-03 | 107.1 |
2019-04 | 107.0 |
2019-05 | 105.1 |
2019-06 | 106.3 |
2019-07 | 106.0 |
2019-08 | 105.0 |
2019-09 | 105.8 |
2019-10 | 105.5 |
2019-11 | 106.5 |
2019-12 | 106.9 |
2020-01 | 104.8 |
2020-02 | 105.0 |
2020-03 | 96.3 |
2020-04 | 48.9 |
2020-05 | 53.2 |
2020-06 | 67.0 |
2020-07 | 76.5 |
2020-08 | 87.6 |
2020-09 | 92.0 |
2020-10 | 88.7 |
graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator
Revisions
The sectoral business climate in manufacturing for September 2020 has been revised downwards by two points, that in services has been lowered by one point. The French employment climate in September 2020 has also been revised downwards by one point. Those revisions are mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from companies.
For further information
The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.
The responses to the business tendency surveys have been collected between September 28 and October 19 2020.
Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.
Next issue: 24 November 2020 at 08:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.
The responses to the business tendency surveys have been collected between September 28 and October 19 2020.
Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.
Next issue: 24 November 2020 at 08:45 am