22 October 2020
N° 2020-268

In October 2020, the French business climate and the employment climate have fallen back, due to services in particularBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - October 2020

According to the business leaders surveyed between the 28th of September and the 19th of October, business prospects have darkened compared to the previous month. The composite indicator of the French business climate has fallen back by two points. At 90, it has returned to its level of August, significantly below its long term average (100). The decline is marked in services, in particular in accommodation and food services, a sub-sector affected by the strengthening of health containment measures. The decline is more moderate in manufacturing. In retail trade, the business climate is stable. The activity prospects declared by business managers in building industry have also stabilised.

Informations rapides
No 268
Paru le : Paru le 22/10/2020
Prochaine parution le : 17/12/2020 at 08:45 - December 2020
Informations rapides  No 268 - October 2020

The rebound in the COVID-19 epidemic has weighed on business prospects

According to the business leaders surveyed between the 28th of September and the 19th of October, business prospects have darkened compared to the previous month. The composite indicator of the French business climate has fallen back by two points. At 90, it has returned to its level of August, significantly below its long term average (100). The decline is marked in services, in particular in accommodation and food services, a sub-sector affected by the strengthening of health containment measures. The decline is more moderate in manufacturing. In retail trade, the business climate is stable. The activity prospects declared by business managers in building industry have also stabilised.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 109.0
1998-02 110.2
1998-03 113.2
1998-04 111.0
1998-05 112.1
1998-06 113.3
1998-07 112.4
1998-08 111.6
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.0
1998-11 105.0
1998-12 102.2
1999-01 102.4
1999-02 102.4
1999-03 100.7
1999-04 101.6
1999-05 103.4
1999-06 102.8
1999-07 107.6
1999-08 110.5
1999-09 113.8
1999-10 115.6
1999-11 117.1
1999-12 118.5
2000-01 115.4
2000-02 115.9
2000-03 116.7
2000-04 116.5
2000-05 115.8
2000-06 117.1
2000-07 116.7
2000-08 117.3
2000-09 117.4
2000-10 116.0
2000-11 113.8
2000-12 113.2
2001-01 112.2
2001-02 112.1
2001-03 112.1
2001-04 107.1
2001-05 104.9
2001-06 104.0
2001-07 101.9
2001-08 100.5
2001-09 98.8
2001-10 94.4
2001-11 94.5
2001-12 95.1
2002-01 96.4
2002-02 97.0
2002-03 98.9
2002-04 102.0
2002-05 103.2
2002-06 102.3
2002-07 99.5
2002-08 98.8
2002-09 97.7
2002-10 96.0
2002-11 97.4
2002-12 99.9
2003-01 96.6
2003-02 95.6
2003-03 90.3
2003-04 88.3
2003-05 92.9
2003-06 92.9
2003-07 95.1
2003-08 96.0
2003-09 95.9
2003-10 96.9
2003-11 100.9
2003-12 102.2
2004-01 105.9
2004-02 105.0
2004-03 105.1
2004-04 105.9
2004-05 105.8
2004-06 105.3
2004-07 106.6
2004-08 106.8
2004-09 106.6
2004-10 107.6
2004-11 105.2
2004-12 106.3
2005-01 105.9
2005-02 106.1
2005-03 105.7
2005-04 104.9
2005-05 102.7
2005-06 103.8
2005-07 104.4
2005-08 104.3
2005-09 103.6
2005-10 106.4
2005-11 106.4
2005-12 107.8
2006-01 109.0
2006-02 107.2
2006-03 107.3
2006-04 108.0
2006-05 109.6
2006-06 109.1
2006-07 110.8
2006-08 111.0
2006-09 111.5
2006-10 111.3
2006-11 112.2
2006-12 110.6
2007-01 110.6
2007-02 112.2
2007-03 112.6
2007-04 113.3
2007-05 113.8
2007-06 114.9
2007-07 114.1
2007-08 112.9
2007-09 112.1
2007-10 111.3
2007-11 111.5
2007-12 111.2
2008-01 110.0
2008-02 108.6
2008-03 108.3
2008-04 105.6
2008-05 102.9
2008-06 100.1
2008-07 96.1
2008-08 94.8
2008-09 92.1
2008-10 83.7
2008-11 80.3
2008-12 76.8
2009-01 75.2
2009-02 72.9
2009-03 70.0
2009-04 71.1
2009-05 74.6
2009-06 77.4
2009-07 79.4
2009-08 83.1
2009-09 86.5
2009-10 89.0
2009-11 91.2
2009-12 91.7
2010-01 93.7
2010-02 94.1
2010-03 93.5
2010-04 97.6
2010-05 98.6
2010-06 98.2
2010-07 100.3
2010-08 102.6
2010-09 104.1
2010-10 105.1
2010-11 105.3
2010-12 107.0
2011-01 107.9
2011-02 108.5
2011-03 109.5
2011-04 109.2
2011-05 108.2
2011-06 108.4
2011-07 106.3
2011-08 101.2
2011-09 98.0
2011-10 96.8
2011-11 94.9
2011-12 93.6
2012-01 92.8
2012-02 92.8
2012-03 95.3
2012-04 95.9
2012-05 92.5
2012-06 91.5
2012-07 89.4
2012-08 89.0
2012-09 87.4
2012-10 85.5
2012-11 87.3
2012-12 88.0
2013-01 87.9
2013-02 87.8
2013-03 86.0
2013-04 84.5
2013-05 85.6
2013-06 86.7
2013-07 88.6
2013-08 91.8
2013-09 94.9
2013-10 94.5
2013-11 93.7
2013-12 93.6
2014-01 94.2
2014-02 94.1
2014-03 95.4
2014-04 95.2
2014-05 94.9
2014-06 93.7
2014-07 93.1
2014-08 91.9
2014-09 91.2
2014-10 91.3
2014-11 93.1
2014-12 93.3
2015-01 93.7
2015-02 94.5
2015-03 95.6
2015-04 96.6
2015-05 97.5
2015-06 98.4
2015-07 98.8
2015-08 100.3
2015-09 100.0
2015-10 100.9
2015-11 101.0
2015-12 99.6
2016-01 101.4
2016-02 100.4
2016-03 100.5
2016-04 100.5
2016-05 102.3
2016-06 100.7
2016-07 101.3
2016-08 100.9
2016-09 101.3
2016-10 101.5
2016-11 101.8
2016-12 104.1
2017-01 103.8
2017-02 104.2
2017-03 104.2
2017-04 104.4
2017-05 105.4
2017-06 107.0
2017-07 107.8
2017-08 108.7
2017-09 109.2
2017-10 109.1
2017-11 110.5
2017-12 111.4
2018-01 110.7
2018-02 109.7
2018-03 109.4
2018-04 108.6
2018-05 106.8
2018-06 106.6
2018-07 105.9
2018-08 105.3
2018-09 105.2
2018-10 104.0
2018-11 104.6
2018-12 101.7
2019-01 102.2
2019-02 103.3
2019-03 104.8
2019-04 105.4
2019-05 106.1
2019-06 106.3
2019-07 105.2
2019-08 105.5
2019-09 106.4
2019-10 105.6
2019-11 105.9
2019-12 105.1
2020-01 104.8
2020-02 105.1
2020-03 94.5
2020-04 53.4
2020-05 60.2
2020-06 78.5
2020-07 84.2
2020-08 90.4
2020-09 91.9
2020-10 90.3

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
June 20 July 20 Aug. 20 Sept. 20 Oct. 20
Business climates
France 79 84 90 92 90
Manufacturing 78 82 92 94 93
Building construction* n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Services 78 88 93 94 89
Retail trade 84 88 93 95 95
Wholesale trade 79 92
Employment 67 76 88 92 89
  • * c.f. « For further information »
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Renewed pessimism about employment in the tertiary sector

In October 2020, with the rebound in the COVID-19 epidemic, the employment climate has deteriorated, putting a halt to the continuous and sustained recovery observed since May. At 89, it has lost three points compared to September and remains far below its level before crisis (above 105).

This deterioration is mainly due to the decrease in the balances of opinion on the expected change in staff size in tertiary sectors (services and retail trade), in particular in services exclusive of temporary work agencies.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 102.4
1998-02 104.0
1998-03 105.7
1998-04 107.2
1998-05 107.7
1998-06 108.7
1998-07 109.9
1998-08 108.3
1998-09 106.7
1998-10 105.8
1998-11 105.5
1998-12 104.9
1999-01 104.2
1999-02 105.5
1999-03 106.6
1999-04 107.8
1999-05 108.0
1999-06 108.6
1999-07 109.3
1999-08 111.7
1999-09 114.1
1999-10 116.2
1999-11 117.0
1999-12 117.5
2000-01 117.9
2000-02 116.1
2000-03 114.3
2000-04 112.6
2000-05 116.0
2000-06 119.3
2000-07 116.6
2000-08 118.2
2000-09 119.1
2000-10 119.3
2000-11 121.3
2000-12 119.8
2001-01 117.8
2001-02 118.4
2001-03 117.5
2001-04 116.4
2001-05 112.7
2001-06 110.9
2001-07 107.5
2001-08 107.8
2001-09 107.5
2001-10 108.3
2001-11 103.1
2001-12 105.1
2002-01 102.8
2002-02 101.1
2002-03 102.6
2002-04 106.7
2002-05 104.4
2002-06 103.1
2002-07 103.9
2002-08 101.7
2002-09 98.9
2002-10 95.5
2002-11 98.6
2002-12 97.5
2003-01 98.4
2003-02 96.6
2003-03 93.2
2003-04 92.0
2003-05 91.2
2003-06 93.5
2003-07 94.4
2003-08 95.1
2003-09 95.2
2003-10 95.7
2003-11 95.0
2003-12 97.7
2004-01 99.2
2004-02 98.0
2004-03 101.1
2004-04 101.4
2004-05 104.1
2004-06 101.3
2004-07 102.1
2004-08 102.0
2004-09 101.7
2004-10 103.1
2004-11 103.3
2004-12 102.2
2005-01 102.5
2005-02 102.2
2005-03 104.7
2005-04 102.4
2005-05 103.0
2005-06 102.4
2005-07 102.8
2005-08 103.4
2005-09 103.8
2005-10 104.1
2005-11 103.9
2005-12 103.3
2006-01 104.1
2006-02 104.1
2006-03 104.7
2006-04 107.0
2006-05 108.1
2006-06 110.1
2006-07 109.8
2006-08 109.1
2006-09 108.0
2006-10 109.0
2006-11 110.4
2006-12 111.0
2007-01 109.3
2007-02 111.3
2007-03 111.0
2007-04 111.6
2007-05 113.2
2007-06 112.8
2007-07 111.1
2007-08 112.5
2007-09 113.2
2007-10 111.5
2007-11 113.0
2007-12 114.5
2008-01 113.8
2008-02 113.8
2008-03 112.2
2008-04 112.4
2008-05 108.3
2008-06 104.8
2008-07 105.6
2008-08 101.0
2008-09 99.8
2008-10 95.4
2008-11 88.5
2008-12 83.6
2009-01 81.2
2009-02 79.6
2009-03 74.0
2009-04 74.6
2009-05 73.7
2009-06 74.8
2009-07 78.5
2009-08 83.2
2009-09 82.4
2009-10 84.5
2009-11 86.8
2009-12 89.1
2010-01 90.4
2010-02 90.9
2010-03 93.4
2010-04 95.6
2010-05 97.5
2010-06 98.5
2010-07 98.9
2010-08 99.3
2010-09 100.8
2010-10 103.5
2010-11 104.5
2010-12 105.3
2011-01 103.9
2011-02 109.9
2011-03 108.9
2011-04 109.1
2011-05 110.6
2011-06 110.8
2011-07 109.2
2011-08 105.2
2011-09 103.4
2011-10 100.5
2011-11 100.6
2011-12 98.9
2012-01 97.7
2012-02 97.3
2012-03 98.9
2012-04 97.7
2012-05 95.1
2012-06 94.0
2012-07 92.6
2012-08 93.6
2012-09 91.5
2012-10 91.9
2012-11 90.4
2012-12 90.0
2013-01 92.5
2013-02 89.4
2013-03 88.6
2013-04 87.1
2013-05 86.6
2013-06 89.2
2013-07 90.3
2013-08 91.0
2013-09 92.4
2013-10 94.7
2013-11 93.2
2013-12 95.2
2014-01 95.4
2014-02 94.7
2014-03 95.5
2014-04 98.1
2014-05 97.1
2014-06 95.5
2014-07 95.9
2014-08 94.6
2014-09 94.7
2014-10 94.7
2014-11 94.5
2014-12 94.8
2015-01 94.0
2015-02 96.1
2015-03 95.5
2015-04 97.6
2015-05 97.6
2015-06 99.3
2015-07 99.8
2015-08 100.6
2015-09 100.3
2015-10 100.7
2015-11 101.6
2015-12 100.9
2016-01 102.0
2016-02 100.7
2016-03 99.7
2016-04 100.6
2016-05 102.2
2016-06 101.6
2016-07 104.0
2016-08 103.3
2016-09 104.6
2016-10 104.8
2016-11 104.9
2016-12 106.5
2017-01 105.3
2017-02 104.5
2017-03 107.3
2017-04 106.4
2017-05 107.2
2017-06 107.7
2017-07 107.2
2017-08 105.7
2017-09 106.8
2017-10 108.3
2017-11 108.2
2017-12 108.8
2018-01 109.2
2018-02 109.9
2018-03 109.7
2018-04 108.9
2018-05 109.2
2018-06 109.8
2018-07 108.2
2018-08 107.5
2018-09 107.2
2018-10 106.9
2018-11 105.4
2018-12 104.9
2019-01 105.2
2019-02 107.0
2019-03 107.1
2019-04 107.0
2019-05 105.1
2019-06 106.3
2019-07 106.0
2019-08 105.0
2019-09 105.8
2019-10 105.5
2019-11 106.5
2019-12 106.9
2020-01 104.8
2020-02 105.0
2020-03 96.3
2020-04 48.9
2020-05 53.2
2020-06 67.0
2020-07 76.5
2020-08 87.6
2020-09 92.0
2020-10 88.7

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE

Revisions

The sectoral business climate in manufacturing for September 2020 has been revised downwards by two points, that in services has been lowered by one point. The French employment climate in September 2020 has also been revised downwards by one point. Those revisions are mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from companies.

For further information

The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.

The responses to the business tendency surveys have been collected between September 28 and October 19 2020.

Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.

Next issue: 24 November 2020 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

The business climate indicator summarises the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and building construction. It is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and building construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Specifically concerning the building industry, all the balances of opinion resulting from the survey are published in the Informations Rapides issue dedicated to this sector and in the additional series available online. However, it appeared during the health crisis that the synthetic indicator usually calculated from some of these balances of opinion tended to smooth fluctuations in activity measured in the building industry. This is why an overhaul of this synthetic indicator is currently being studied in this sector in order to, if possible, improve its predictive qualities. The French business climate indicator has continued to take into account all the sectors studied, including the building construction industry; its methodology is unchanged.

The responses to the business tendency surveys have been collected between September 28 and October 19 2020.

Finally, since the definitive data of April 2020, the way of correcting non-response has been modified. The usual method was to fill in missing answers by carrying on past answers from non-responding companies. Results are now computed on the sole basis of responding units.

Next issue: 24 November 2020 at 08:45 am


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