23 July 2020
2020- n° 183In July 2020, the business climate in services has sharply improved for the third
month in a row Monthly survey of services - July 2020
According to the business managers surveyed in July 2020, the business climate has sharply improved for the third month in a row in services. It had reached in April its lowest level since the indicator was created (1989). At 89, the business climate composite indicator has gained 11 points but it still stands significantly below its long-term average (100).
Companies' responses were collected between 27 June and 20 July 2020, both online and, for the first time since March, through paper forms. Therefore, the answer rate has further recovered from its April low point and is now nearing the rate usual prior to the health crisis. Furthermore, since the definitive data of April, the correction mode of non-response has been modified. Whereas the previous method was to carry on past answers from non-responding companies, we have been considering in April’s data update, May, June and July that non-responding units would have answered as their elementary stratum’s units average.
According to the business managers surveyed in July 2020, the business climate has sharply improved for the third month in a row in services. It had reached in April its lowest level since the indicator was created (1989). At 89, the business climate composite indicator has gained 11 points but it still stands significantly below its long-term average (100).
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator
| Business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 104.4 |
| 1998-02 | 105.6 |
| 1998-03 | 106.8 |
| 1998-04 | 108.0 |
| 1998-05 | 107.7 |
| 1998-06 | 107.3 |
| 1998-07 | 106.9 |
| 1998-08 | 106.0 |
| 1998-09 | 105.2 |
| 1998-10 | 104.3 |
| 1998-11 | 102.5 |
| 1998-12 | 100.6 |
| 1999-01 | 98.7 |
| 1999-02 | 99.6 |
| 1999-03 | 100.5 |
| 1999-04 | 101.4 |
| 1999-05 | 102.9 |
| 1999-06 | 104.4 |
| 1999-07 | 106.0 |
| 1999-08 | 108.7 |
| 1999-09 | 111.5 |
| 1999-10 | 114.2 |
| 1999-11 | 112.7 |
| 1999-12 | 111.2 |
| 2000-01 | 109.6 |
| 2000-02 | 109.0 |
| 2000-03 | 108.5 |
| 2000-04 | 107.9 |
| 2000-05 | 110.6 |
| 2000-06 | 113.4 |
| 2000-07 | 112.0 |
| 2000-08 | 114.0 |
| 2000-09 | 115.2 |
| 2000-10 | 114.6 |
| 2000-11 | 113.7 |
| 2000-12 | 114.2 |
| 2001-01 | 113.4 |
| 2001-02 | 112.1 |
| 2001-03 | 112.4 |
| 2001-04 | 108.4 |
| 2001-05 | 105.9 |
| 2001-06 | 105.7 |
| 2001-07 | 103.6 |
| 2001-08 | 102.9 |
| 2001-09 | 101.6 |
| 2001-10 | 97.0 |
| 2001-11 | 96.5 |
| 2001-12 | 96.8 |
| 2002-01 | 97.7 |
| 2002-02 | 98.9 |
| 2002-03 | 102.5 |
| 2002-04 | 104.5 |
| 2002-05 | 105.3 |
| 2002-06 | 102.9 |
| 2002-07 | 101.3 |
| 2002-08 | 100.0 |
| 2002-09 | 98.2 |
| 2002-10 | 98.8 |
| 2002-11 | 100.1 |
| 2002-12 | 101.0 |
| 2003-01 | 97.8 |
| 2003-02 | 96.5 |
| 2003-03 | 91.9 |
| 2003-04 | 89.3 |
| 2003-05 | 93.2 |
| 2003-06 | 94.7 |
| 2003-07 | 97.7 |
| 2003-08 | 99.0 |
| 2003-09 | 99.9 |
| 2003-10 | 100.6 |
| 2003-11 | 102.0 |
| 2003-12 | 104.2 |
| 2004-01 | 106.3 |
| 2004-02 | 106.3 |
| 2004-03 | 106.1 |
| 2004-04 | 105.9 |
| 2004-05 | 106.5 |
| 2004-06 | 105.3 |
| 2004-07 | 106.5 |
| 2004-08 | 106.1 |
| 2004-09 | 105.4 |
| 2004-10 | 106.5 |
| 2004-11 | 106.1 |
| 2004-12 | 108.8 |
| 2005-01 | 106.6 |
| 2005-02 | 106.4 |
| 2005-03 | 108.3 |
| 2005-04 | 108.0 |
| 2005-05 | 106.1 |
| 2005-06 | 108.3 |
| 2005-07 | 107.7 |
| 2005-08 | 107.4 |
| 2005-09 | 107.0 |
| 2005-10 | 108.5 |
| 2005-11 | 106.5 |
| 2005-12 | 106.8 |
| 2006-01 | 108.7 |
| 2006-02 | 106.3 |
| 2006-03 | 107.6 |
| 2006-04 | 107.9 |
| 2006-05 | 110.4 |
| 2006-06 | 109.1 |
| 2006-07 | 110.3 |
| 2006-08 | 110.4 |
| 2006-09 | 110.5 |
| 2006-10 | 110.8 |
| 2006-11 | 112.9 |
| 2006-12 | 111.3 |
| 2007-01 | 110.8 |
| 2007-02 | 112.2 |
| 2007-03 | 113.2 |
| 2007-04 | 112.9 |
| 2007-05 | 112.8 |
| 2007-06 | 112.5 |
| 2007-07 | 113.0 |
| 2007-08 | 112.2 |
| 2007-09 | 111.4 |
| 2007-10 | 110.1 |
| 2007-11 | 110.2 |
| 2007-12 | 109.2 |
| 2008-01 | 110.4 |
| 2008-02 | 108.7 |
| 2008-03 | 108.8 |
| 2008-04 | 107.3 |
| 2008-05 | 104.8 |
| 2008-06 | 101.8 |
| 2008-07 | 97.6 |
| 2008-08 | 96.1 |
| 2008-09 | 94.2 |
| 2008-10 | 85.8 |
| 2008-11 | 81.9 |
| 2008-12 | 78.8 |
| 2009-01 | 76.3 |
| 2009-02 | 75.2 |
| 2009-03 | 70.2 |
| 2009-04 | 70.3 |
| 2009-05 | 74.2 |
| 2009-06 | 78.7 |
| 2009-07 | 82.3 |
| 2009-08 | 84.8 |
| 2009-09 | 88.0 |
| 2009-10 | 91.0 |
| 2009-11 | 92.4 |
| 2009-12 | 92.9 |
| 2010-01 | 94.3 |
| 2010-02 | 94.6 |
| 2010-03 | 94.8 |
| 2010-04 | 97.8 |
| 2010-05 | 99.4 |
| 2010-06 | 98.6 |
| 2010-07 | 99.4 |
| 2010-08 | 100.9 |
| 2010-09 | 101.8 |
| 2010-10 | 103.1 |
| 2010-11 | 104.9 |
| 2010-12 | 106.9 |
| 2011-01 | 107.1 |
| 2011-02 | 109.3 |
| 2011-03 | 110.4 |
| 2011-04 | 109.1 |
| 2011-05 | 107.8 |
| 2011-06 | 107.3 |
| 2011-07 | 105.4 |
| 2011-08 | 101.0 |
| 2011-09 | 98.9 |
| 2011-10 | 97.8 |
| 2011-11 | 95.8 |
| 2011-12 | 95.4 |
| 2012-01 | 93.6 |
| 2012-02 | 92.9 |
| 2012-03 | 94.3 |
| 2012-04 | 96.2 |
| 2012-05 | 92.7 |
| 2012-06 | 90.8 |
| 2012-07 | 90.3 |
| 2012-08 | 88.3 |
| 2012-09 | 88.0 |
| 2012-10 | 86.9 |
| 2012-11 | 86.3 |
| 2012-12 | 87.9 |
| 2013-01 | 88.8 |
| 2013-02 | 87.7 |
| 2013-03 | 84.9 |
| 2013-04 | 84.0 |
| 2013-05 | 85.4 |
| 2013-06 | 86.7 |
| 2013-07 | 87.2 |
| 2013-08 | 89.1 |
| 2013-09 | 92.6 |
| 2013-10 | 92.1 |
| 2013-11 | 92.8 |
| 2013-12 | 91.4 |
| 2014-01 | 92.7 |
| 2014-02 | 92.6 |
| 2014-03 | 93.4 |
| 2014-04 | 93.7 |
| 2014-05 | 92.7 |
| 2014-06 | 92.7 |
| 2014-07 | 93.0 |
| 2014-08 | 92.0 |
| 2014-09 | 91.5 |
| 2014-10 | 91.7 |
| 2014-11 | 91.7 |
| 2014-12 | 91.8 |
| 2015-01 | 91.5 |
| 2015-02 | 91.9 |
| 2015-03 | 92.7 |
| 2015-04 | 94.2 |
| 2015-05 | 95.7 |
| 2015-06 | 97.1 |
| 2015-07 | 97.7 |
| 2015-08 | 98.8 |
| 2015-09 | 97.8 |
| 2015-10 | 99.8 |
| 2015-11 | 99.5 |
| 2015-12 | 97.4 |
| 2016-01 | 100.2 |
| 2016-02 | 100.1 |
| 2016-03 | 99.7 |
| 2016-04 | 98.6 |
| 2016-05 | 100.9 |
| 2016-06 | 99.3 |
| 2016-07 | 100.5 |
| 2016-08 | 100.2 |
| 2016-09 | 101.0 |
| 2016-10 | 100.9 |
| 2016-11 | 101.0 |
| 2016-12 | 103.7 |
| 2017-01 | 101.8 |
| 2017-02 | 102.8 |
| 2017-03 | 103.4 |
| 2017-04 | 103.2 |
| 2017-05 | 102.9 |
| 2017-06 | 103.6 |
| 2017-07 | 103.9 |
| 2017-08 | 105.9 |
| 2017-09 | 106.6 |
| 2017-10 | 106.8 |
| 2017-11 | 107.4 |
| 2017-12 | 108.7 |
| 2018-01 | 107.7 |
| 2018-02 | 106.5 |
| 2018-03 | 106.7 |
| 2018-04 | 105.8 |
| 2018-05 | 104.4 |
| 2018-06 | 104.9 |
| 2018-07 | 104.4 |
| 2018-08 | 103.8 |
| 2018-09 | 104.5 |
| 2018-10 | 103.3 |
| 2018-11 | 103.8 |
| 2018-12 | 102.2 |
| 2019-01 | 103.6 |
| 2019-02 | 103.5 |
| 2019-03 | 104.7 |
| 2019-04 | 105.5 |
| 2019-05 | 105.8 |
| 2019-06 | 106.2 |
| 2019-07 | 105.1 |
| 2019-08 | 104.7 |
| 2019-09 | 105.7 |
| 2019-10 | 105.8 |
| 2019-11 | 106.2 |
| 2019-12 | 106.5 |
| 2020-01 | 106.1 |
| 2020-02 | 105.8 |
| 2020-03 | 92.9 |
| 2020-04 | 41.5 |
| 2020-05 | 51.8 |
| 2020-06 | 78.2 |
| 2020-07 | 89.5 |
graphiqueBusiness climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
All monthly balances of opinion have strengthened
The balances of opinion on the general outlook of the sector’s activity, on own activity prospects and on expected demand have sharply increased since May and the gradual lockdown exit. The balance on expected activity has reached its long-term average and that on expected demand has almost reached it. Nevertheless, the balance on general outlook remains well below its average. That on past activity has bounced back in July, after four months of strong decline; however, it remains very deteriorated.
The balance on expected employment has increased again but remains below its average level. That on past employment has improved too; however, it remains very deteriorated. In July, fewer business managers than in April have reported difficulties in recruitment: the corresponding share stands at its lowest level since July 2016.
Concerning the other quarterly balances, the balance on past operating result has very sharply declined again whereas that on expected operating result has vigorously bounced back. That on cash position has slightly recovered.
tableauEconomic outlook in the services sector
| Average* | Apr. 2020 | May 2020 | Jun. 2020 | Jul. 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicator | 100 | 41 | 52 | 78 | 89 |
| General outlook | -7 | -76 | -60 | -28 | -15 |
| Past activity | 1 | -22 | -51 | -61 | -55 |
| Expected activity | 2 | -71 | -52 | -13 | 2 |
| Expected demand | -1 | -69 | -48 | -13 | -2 |
| Past selling prices | -4 | -8 | -17 | -18 | -14 |
| Expected selling prices | -3 | -23 | -23 | -12 | -5 |
| Past employment | 2 | -35 | -45 | -56 | -49 |
| except temporary work agencies | 0 | -29 | -39 | -50 | -40 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -65 | -45 | -12 | -3 |
| except temporary work agencies | -1 | -59 | -46 | -20 | -11 |
| Investments | |||||
| Past investments | 2 | -13 | -32 | -36 | -31 |
| Expected investments | 1 | -47 | -39 | -15 | -11 |
| Operating balance result | |||||
| Past result | -2 | -26 | -58 | ||
| Expected result | -2 | -72 | -6 | ||
| Cash position | -11 | -33 | -27 | ||
| Difficulties of supply and demand | |||||
| difficulties of supply and demand | 10 | 16 | 12 | ||
| difficulties of supply only | 23 | 38 | 16 | ||
| difficulties of demand only | 31 | 16 | 31 | ||
| Difficulties in recruitment | 29 | 31 | 21 |
- * Average since 1989 for the composite indicator and since 1988 for the balances of opinion
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
The business climate indicator has continued to improve in all sub-sectors in services. This revival is particularly marked in accommodation and food services, in professional, scientific and technical activities and in real estate activities. However, the climate has remained below its long-term average in almost all sub-sectors, except in road freight transport where it has joined it.
tableauBusiness climate composite indicator and balances of opinion by sub-sector in services
| Aggregated classification (NA 2008) at level A21 | Mean* | Apr. 2020 | May 2020 | Jun. 2020 | Jul. 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Road freight transport (8%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 64 | 77 | 97 | 100 |
| Past activity | -6 | -35 | -59 | -76 | -62 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -81 | -45 | 9 | 7 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -73 | -39 | -3 | 1 |
| Past employment | -6 | -27 | -46 | -62 | -53 |
| Expected employment | -7 | -51 | -42 | -7 | 3 |
| General outlook | -19 | -84 | -61 | -18 | -10 |
| Accommodation and food service activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 29 | 27 | 70 | 92 |
| Past activity | -8 | -66 | -100 | -100 | -85 |
| Expected activity | -7 | -100 | -100 | -27 | 1 |
| Expected demand | -9 | -100 | -97 | -20 | 1 |
| Past employment | -5 | -51 | -62 | -75 | -61 |
| Expected employment | -6 | -82 | -80 | -31 | -17 |
| General outlook | -14 | -100 | -100 | -62 | -27 |
| Information and communication (26%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 63 | 69 | 82 | 87 |
| Past activity | 7 | 5 | -20 | -36 | -45 |
| Expected activity | 9 | -51 | -33 | -4 | 7 |
| Expected demand | 9 | -58 | -29 | -5 | 3 |
| Past employment | 6 | -18 | -13 | -29 | -26 |
| Expected employment | 10 | -33 | -38 | -17 | -11 |
| General outlook | 0 | -63 | -46 | -18 | -11 |
| Real estate activities (11%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 55 | 45 | 74 | 88 |
| Past activity | 7 | -6 | -30 | -29 | -22 |
| Expected activity | 6 | -40 | -38 | -6 | 9 |
| Expected demand | 1 | -31 | -30 | -10 | 3 |
| Past employment | 2 | -3 | -26 | -20 | -21 |
| Expected employment | 2 | -23 | -18 | -14 | -13 |
| General outlook | -4 | -57 | -50 | -20 | -6 |
| Professionnel, scientific and technical activities (24%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 40 | 50 | 69 | 85 |
| Past activity | -1 | -26 | -51 | -63 | -55 |
| Expected activity | -2 | -78 | -61 | -34 | -10 |
| Expected demand | -5 | -75 | -56 | -36 | -14 |
| Past employment | 1 | -18 | -35 | -38 | -33 |
| Expected employment | 1 | -57 | -42 | -27 | -16 |
| General outlook | -9 | -78 | -65 | -40 | -24 |
| Administrative and support service activities (18%) | |||||
| Composite indicator | 100 | 38 | 52 | 84 | 93 |
| Past activity | 5 | -36 | -70 | -78 | -68 |
| Expected activity | 5 | -78 | -53 | -4 | 9 |
| Expected demand | 3 | -75 | -53 | -1 | 5 |
| Past employment | 8 | -48 | -58 | -74 | -63 |
| Expected employment | 7 | -85 | -40 | -1 | 13 |
| General outlook | -4 | -83 | -60 | -24 | -8 |
- The figures in parentheses indicate the weights used to aggregate the sub-sector balances of opinion.
- *Composite indicator: average since 1989 (2006 for road transport); balances of opinion: average since 1988 (2006 for road transport)
- Source: INSEE, monthly business survey in services.
Revision
The business climate in June 2020 has been revised upwards by one point due to the inclusion of late responses from businesses.
For further information
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 27 August 2020 at 8:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated methodology (pdf,185 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is calculated as the difference between the percentage of “increase” responses and the percentage of “decrease” responses.
Additional information (simplified and detailed methodology, nomenclature, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab of the web page of this publication.
Next issue: 27 August 2020 at 8:45 am
Time series : Economic outlook surveys – Services
