24 June 2020
2020- n° 157In June 2020, the French business climate remains deteriorated but has recovered very
clearly, as well as the employment climate Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - June 2020
In June 2020, the business climate has recovered very clearly, in connection with the acceleration of the lockdown exit. The indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of business managers from the main market sectors, has gained 18 points, its largest monthly increase since the start of the series (1980).
At 78, the business climate has exceeded the low point reached in March 2009 (70), but remains far below its long-term average (100).
This sharp rise in the overall synthetic indicator is explained in particular by the more optimistic view that companies have on their activity prospects, in all sectors, under the effect of the the lockdown exit. Conversely, the balances of opinion relating to activity in the past three months remain very low.
Due to the context of the fight against the propagation of COVID-19, statistics published in this Informations Rapides issue could be less accurate than usual.
Companies’ responses to different sectoral surveys were collected between 27 May and 19 June 2020, solely online. Consequently, the response rate is a little lower this month than before the beginning of the health crisis, even though it has picked up compared to its low point of April. In addition, for this issue as well as for April (after revision) and May, the method to correct non-response has been modified compared to the usual method which reproduces past responses from non-responding companies. We have considered that the non-responding units in April (after revision), in May then in June would have responded as the average of the responding units of the elementary stratum to which they belong.
The business climate has recovered very clearly
In June 2020, the business climate has recovered very clearly, in connection with the acceleration of the lockdown exit. The indicator that synthesizes it, calculated from the responses of business managers from the main market sectors, has gained 18 points, its largest monthly increase since the start of the series (1980).
At 78, the business climate has exceeded the low point reached in March 2009 (70), but remains far below its long-term average (100).
This sharp rise in the overall synthetic indicator is explained in particular by the more optimistic view that companies have on their activity prospects, in all sectors, under the effect of the the lockdown exit. Conversely, the balances of opinion relating to activity in the past three months remain very low.
tableauFrench business climate composite indicator
| French business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 108.9 |
| 1998-02 | 110.1 |
| 1998-03 | 113.0 |
| 1998-04 | 110.9 |
| 1998-05 | 112.0 |
| 1998-06 | 113.2 |
| 1998-07 | 112.3 |
| 1998-08 | 111.5 |
| 1998-09 | 109.5 |
| 1998-10 | 106.9 |
| 1998-11 | 105.0 |
| 1998-12 | 102.2 |
| 1999-01 | 102.3 |
| 1999-02 | 102.3 |
| 1999-03 | 100.7 |
| 1999-04 | 101.5 |
| 1999-05 | 103.2 |
| 1999-06 | 102.7 |
| 1999-07 | 107.6 |
| 1999-08 | 110.4 |
| 1999-09 | 113.7 |
| 1999-10 | 115.4 |
| 1999-11 | 117.0 |
| 1999-12 | 118.4 |
| 2000-01 | 115.3 |
| 2000-02 | 115.9 |
| 2000-03 | 116.7 |
| 2000-04 | 116.4 |
| 2000-05 | 115.7 |
| 2000-06 | 117.0 |
| 2000-07 | 116.6 |
| 2000-08 | 117.1 |
| 2000-09 | 117.2 |
| 2000-10 | 115.9 |
| 2000-11 | 113.7 |
| 2000-12 | 113.1 |
| 2001-01 | 112.1 |
| 2001-02 | 112.0 |
| 2001-03 | 112.0 |
| 2001-04 | 107.1 |
| 2001-05 | 104.9 |
| 2001-06 | 103.9 |
| 2001-07 | 101.8 |
| 2001-08 | 100.5 |
| 2001-09 | 98.8 |
| 2001-10 | 94.4 |
| 2001-11 | 94.4 |
| 2001-12 | 95.0 |
| 2002-01 | 96.2 |
| 2002-02 | 96.9 |
| 2002-03 | 98.7 |
| 2002-04 | 101.8 |
| 2002-05 | 103.0 |
| 2002-06 | 102.1 |
| 2002-07 | 99.3 |
| 2002-08 | 98.6 |
| 2002-09 | 97.6 |
| 2002-10 | 95.9 |
| 2002-11 | 97.3 |
| 2002-12 | 99.7 |
| 2003-01 | 96.4 |
| 2003-02 | 95.5 |
| 2003-03 | 90.2 |
| 2003-04 | 88.3 |
| 2003-05 | 92.7 |
| 2003-06 | 92.8 |
| 2003-07 | 95.0 |
| 2003-08 | 95.9 |
| 2003-09 | 95.8 |
| 2003-10 | 96.8 |
| 2003-11 | 100.8 |
| 2003-12 | 102.1 |
| 2004-01 | 105.8 |
| 2004-02 | 104.9 |
| 2004-03 | 105.0 |
| 2004-04 | 105.8 |
| 2004-05 | 105.7 |
| 2004-06 | 105.1 |
| 2004-07 | 106.5 |
| 2004-08 | 106.7 |
| 2004-09 | 106.5 |
| 2004-10 | 107.5 |
| 2004-11 | 105.1 |
| 2004-12 | 106.2 |
| 2005-01 | 105.8 |
| 2005-02 | 106.0 |
| 2005-03 | 105.6 |
| 2005-04 | 104.8 |
| 2005-05 | 102.6 |
| 2005-06 | 103.7 |
| 2005-07 | 104.3 |
| 2005-08 | 104.2 |
| 2005-09 | 103.5 |
| 2005-10 | 106.3 |
| 2005-11 | 106.4 |
| 2005-12 | 107.6 |
| 2006-01 | 108.9 |
| 2006-02 | 107.1 |
| 2006-03 | 107.2 |
| 2006-04 | 107.9 |
| 2006-05 | 109.5 |
| 2006-06 | 109.0 |
| 2006-07 | 110.7 |
| 2006-08 | 110.9 |
| 2006-09 | 111.4 |
| 2006-10 | 111.2 |
| 2006-11 | 112.1 |
| 2006-12 | 110.6 |
| 2007-01 | 110.5 |
| 2007-02 | 112.1 |
| 2007-03 | 112.5 |
| 2007-04 | 113.2 |
| 2007-05 | 113.7 |
| 2007-06 | 114.8 |
| 2007-07 | 114.0 |
| 2007-08 | 112.8 |
| 2007-09 | 112.0 |
| 2007-10 | 111.2 |
| 2007-11 | 111.4 |
| 2007-12 | 111.1 |
| 2008-01 | 109.9 |
| 2008-02 | 108.5 |
| 2008-03 | 108.2 |
| 2008-04 | 105.6 |
| 2008-05 | 102.9 |
| 2008-06 | 100.1 |
| 2008-07 | 96.0 |
| 2008-08 | 94.7 |
| 2008-09 | 92.1 |
| 2008-10 | 83.7 |
| 2008-11 | 80.3 |
| 2008-12 | 76.8 |
| 2009-01 | 75.2 |
| 2009-02 | 72.9 |
| 2009-03 | 70.0 |
| 2009-04 | 71.0 |
| 2009-05 | 74.5 |
| 2009-06 | 77.3 |
| 2009-07 | 79.2 |
| 2009-08 | 83.0 |
| 2009-09 | 86.4 |
| 2009-10 | 88.8 |
| 2009-11 | 91.0 |
| 2009-12 | 91.6 |
| 2010-01 | 93.5 |
| 2010-02 | 94.0 |
| 2010-03 | 93.3 |
| 2010-04 | 97.4 |
| 2010-05 | 98.4 |
| 2010-06 | 98.1 |
| 2010-07 | 100.2 |
| 2010-08 | 102.5 |
| 2010-09 | 103.9 |
| 2010-10 | 104.9 |
| 2010-11 | 105.2 |
| 2010-12 | 106.8 |
| 2011-01 | 107.7 |
| 2011-02 | 108.4 |
| 2011-03 | 109.3 |
| 2011-04 | 109.1 |
| 2011-05 | 108.0 |
| 2011-06 | 108.3 |
| 2011-07 | 106.2 |
| 2011-08 | 101.2 |
| 2011-09 | 98.0 |
| 2011-10 | 96.7 |
| 2011-11 | 94.9 |
| 2011-12 | 93.5 |
| 2012-01 | 92.8 |
| 2012-02 | 92.7 |
| 2012-03 | 95.2 |
| 2012-04 | 95.8 |
| 2012-05 | 92.5 |
| 2012-06 | 91.4 |
| 2012-07 | 89.3 |
| 2012-08 | 88.9 |
| 2012-09 | 87.3 |
| 2012-10 | 85.4 |
| 2012-11 | 87.3 |
| 2012-12 | 87.9 |
| 2013-01 | 87.7 |
| 2013-02 | 87.7 |
| 2013-03 | 85.9 |
| 2013-04 | 84.4 |
| 2013-05 | 85.5 |
| 2013-06 | 86.6 |
| 2013-07 | 88.5 |
| 2013-08 | 91.6 |
| 2013-09 | 94.7 |
| 2013-10 | 94.4 |
| 2013-11 | 93.5 |
| 2013-12 | 93.5 |
| 2014-01 | 94.1 |
| 2014-02 | 93.9 |
| 2014-03 | 95.2 |
| 2014-04 | 95.1 |
| 2014-05 | 94.7 |
| 2014-06 | 93.6 |
| 2014-07 | 93.0 |
| 2014-08 | 91.8 |
| 2014-09 | 91.1 |
| 2014-10 | 91.2 |
| 2014-11 | 93.0 |
| 2014-12 | 93.2 |
| 2015-01 | 93.5 |
| 2015-02 | 94.3 |
| 2015-03 | 95.5 |
| 2015-04 | 96.5 |
| 2015-05 | 97.4 |
| 2015-06 | 98.2 |
| 2015-07 | 98.6 |
| 2015-08 | 100.1 |
| 2015-09 | 99.8 |
| 2015-10 | 100.8 |
| 2015-11 | 100.9 |
| 2015-12 | 99.5 |
| 2016-01 | 101.2 |
| 2016-02 | 100.3 |
| 2016-03 | 100.4 |
| 2016-04 | 100.4 |
| 2016-05 | 102.2 |
| 2016-06 | 100.5 |
| 2016-07 | 101.2 |
| 2016-08 | 100.8 |
| 2016-09 | 101.2 |
| 2016-10 | 101.4 |
| 2016-11 | 101.7 |
| 2016-12 | 103.9 |
| 2017-01 | 103.6 |
| 2017-02 | 104.1 |
| 2017-03 | 104.1 |
| 2017-04 | 104.3 |
| 2017-05 | 105.3 |
| 2017-06 | 106.8 |
| 2017-07 | 107.6 |
| 2017-08 | 108.6 |
| 2017-09 | 109.1 |
| 2017-10 | 109.0 |
| 2017-11 | 110.3 |
| 2017-12 | 111.3 |
| 2018-01 | 110.6 |
| 2018-02 | 109.6 |
| 2018-03 | 109.3 |
| 2018-04 | 108.4 |
| 2018-05 | 106.6 |
| 2018-06 | 106.4 |
| 2018-07 | 105.8 |
| 2018-08 | 105.2 |
| 2018-09 | 105.0 |
| 2018-10 | 103.9 |
| 2018-11 | 104.4 |
| 2018-12 | 101.6 |
| 2019-01 | 102.1 |
| 2019-02 | 103.1 |
| 2019-03 | 104.7 |
| 2019-04 | 105.3 |
| 2019-05 | 106.0 |
| 2019-06 | 106.1 |
| 2019-07 | 105.1 |
| 2019-08 | 105.4 |
| 2019-09 | 106.2 |
| 2019-10 | 105.4 |
| 2019-11 | 105.8 |
| 2019-12 | 105.0 |
| 2020-01 | 104.7 |
| 2020-02 | 105.0 |
| 2020-03 | 94.4 |
| 2020-04 | 53.3 |
| 2020-05 | 59.9 |
| 2020-06 | 77.8 |
graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
The employment climate has also recovered
In June 2020, the employment climate has continued to recover. The composite indicator has risen by 13 points, its largest monthly increase since the start of the series (1991), amplifying the rebound that began in May after an unprecedented fall in April. At 66, the employment climate still remains far below its May 2009 low (73), and, a fortiori, its long-term average (100).
tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator
| French employment climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 102.3 |
| 1998-02 | 103.8 |
| 1998-03 | 105.6 |
| 1998-04 | 107.1 |
| 1998-05 | 107.6 |
| 1998-06 | 108.7 |
| 1998-07 | 109.8 |
| 1998-08 | 108.2 |
| 1998-09 | 106.6 |
| 1998-10 | 105.7 |
| 1998-11 | 105.4 |
| 1998-12 | 104.8 |
| 1999-01 | 104.2 |
| 1999-02 | 105.4 |
| 1999-03 | 106.5 |
| 1999-04 | 107.7 |
| 1999-05 | 107.9 |
| 1999-06 | 108.5 |
| 1999-07 | 109.2 |
| 1999-08 | 111.6 |
| 1999-09 | 114.0 |
| 1999-10 | 116.2 |
| 1999-11 | 117.0 |
| 1999-12 | 117.5 |
| 2000-01 | 117.9 |
| 2000-02 | 116.0 |
| 2000-03 | 114.3 |
| 2000-04 | 112.6 |
| 2000-05 | 116.0 |
| 2000-06 | 119.3 |
| 2000-07 | 116.6 |
| 2000-08 | 118.2 |
| 2000-09 | 119.1 |
| 2000-10 | 119.3 |
| 2000-11 | 121.2 |
| 2000-12 | 119.7 |
| 2001-01 | 117.8 |
| 2001-02 | 118.4 |
| 2001-03 | 117.4 |
| 2001-04 | 116.4 |
| 2001-05 | 112.7 |
| 2001-06 | 110.8 |
| 2001-07 | 107.4 |
| 2001-08 | 107.7 |
| 2001-09 | 107.4 |
| 2001-10 | 108.2 |
| 2001-11 | 103.0 |
| 2001-12 | 105.1 |
| 2002-01 | 102.8 |
| 2002-02 | 101.0 |
| 2002-03 | 102.6 |
| 2002-04 | 106.6 |
| 2002-05 | 104.3 |
| 2002-06 | 103.0 |
| 2002-07 | 103.8 |
| 2002-08 | 101.5 |
| 2002-09 | 98.7 |
| 2002-10 | 95.3 |
| 2002-11 | 98.4 |
| 2002-12 | 97.3 |
| 2003-01 | 98.2 |
| 2003-02 | 96.4 |
| 2003-03 | 93.0 |
| 2003-04 | 91.8 |
| 2003-05 | 91.0 |
| 2003-06 | 93.3 |
| 2003-07 | 94.2 |
| 2003-08 | 94.9 |
| 2003-09 | 95.0 |
| 2003-10 | 95.5 |
| 2003-11 | 94.8 |
| 2003-12 | 97.5 |
| 2004-01 | 99.0 |
| 2004-02 | 97.9 |
| 2004-03 | 100.9 |
| 2004-04 | 101.3 |
| 2004-05 | 103.9 |
| 2004-06 | 101.2 |
| 2004-07 | 101.9 |
| 2004-08 | 101.9 |
| 2004-09 | 101.6 |
| 2004-10 | 103.0 |
| 2004-11 | 103.2 |
| 2004-12 | 102.0 |
| 2005-01 | 102.3 |
| 2005-02 | 102.0 |
| 2005-03 | 104.6 |
| 2005-04 | 102.2 |
| 2005-05 | 102.8 |
| 2005-06 | 102.2 |
| 2005-07 | 102.7 |
| 2005-08 | 103.3 |
| 2005-09 | 103.7 |
| 2005-10 | 104.0 |
| 2005-11 | 103.8 |
| 2005-12 | 103.1 |
| 2006-01 | 104.0 |
| 2006-02 | 103.9 |
| 2006-03 | 104.5 |
| 2006-04 | 106.9 |
| 2006-05 | 108.0 |
| 2006-06 | 110.0 |
| 2006-07 | 109.7 |
| 2006-08 | 109.0 |
| 2006-09 | 107.9 |
| 2006-10 | 108.9 |
| 2006-11 | 110.3 |
| 2006-12 | 110.9 |
| 2007-01 | 109.2 |
| 2007-02 | 111.2 |
| 2007-03 | 110.9 |
| 2007-04 | 111.5 |
| 2007-05 | 113.1 |
| 2007-06 | 112.7 |
| 2007-07 | 111.0 |
| 2007-08 | 112.3 |
| 2007-09 | 113.1 |
| 2007-10 | 111.4 |
| 2007-11 | 112.9 |
| 2007-12 | 114.4 |
| 2008-01 | 113.7 |
| 2008-02 | 113.8 |
| 2008-03 | 112.2 |
| 2008-04 | 112.4 |
| 2008-05 | 108.2 |
| 2008-06 | 104.7 |
| 2008-07 | 105.4 |
| 2008-08 | 100.9 |
| 2008-09 | 99.6 |
| 2008-10 | 95.2 |
| 2008-11 | 88.4 |
| 2008-12 | 83.4 |
| 2009-01 | 80.9 |
| 2009-02 | 79.4 |
| 2009-03 | 73.7 |
| 2009-04 | 74.3 |
| 2009-05 | 73.3 |
| 2009-06 | 74.5 |
| 2009-07 | 78.2 |
| 2009-08 | 82.9 |
| 2009-09 | 82.2 |
| 2009-10 | 84.2 |
| 2009-11 | 86.5 |
| 2009-12 | 88.9 |
| 2010-01 | 90.2 |
| 2010-02 | 90.7 |
| 2010-03 | 93.2 |
| 2010-04 | 95.4 |
| 2010-05 | 97.3 |
| 2010-06 | 98.4 |
| 2010-07 | 98.7 |
| 2010-08 | 99.1 |
| 2010-09 | 100.7 |
| 2010-10 | 103.4 |
| 2010-11 | 104.4 |
| 2010-12 | 105.2 |
| 2011-01 | 103.7 |
| 2011-02 | 109.7 |
| 2011-03 | 108.8 |
| 2011-04 | 109.0 |
| 2011-05 | 110.5 |
| 2011-06 | 110.7 |
| 2011-07 | 109.1 |
| 2011-08 | 105.0 |
| 2011-09 | 103.3 |
| 2011-10 | 100.4 |
| 2011-11 | 100.4 |
| 2011-12 | 98.8 |
| 2012-01 | 97.5 |
| 2012-02 | 97.1 |
| 2012-03 | 98.7 |
| 2012-04 | 97.5 |
| 2012-05 | 94.9 |
| 2012-06 | 93.8 |
| 2012-07 | 92.3 |
| 2012-08 | 93.4 |
| 2012-09 | 91.3 |
| 2012-10 | 91.6 |
| 2012-11 | 90.2 |
| 2012-12 | 89.8 |
| 2013-01 | 92.3 |
| 2013-02 | 89.1 |
| 2013-03 | 88.3 |
| 2013-04 | 86.8 |
| 2013-05 | 86.4 |
| 2013-06 | 89.0 |
| 2013-07 | 90.1 |
| 2013-08 | 90.7 |
| 2013-09 | 92.2 |
| 2013-10 | 94.5 |
| 2013-11 | 93.0 |
| 2013-12 | 95.0 |
| 2014-01 | 95.2 |
| 2014-02 | 94.5 |
| 2014-03 | 95.3 |
| 2014-04 | 98.0 |
| 2014-05 | 96.9 |
| 2014-06 | 95.3 |
| 2014-07 | 95.8 |
| 2014-08 | 94.4 |
| 2014-09 | 94.6 |
| 2014-10 | 94.5 |
| 2014-11 | 94.3 |
| 2014-12 | 94.7 |
| 2015-01 | 93.8 |
| 2015-02 | 95.9 |
| 2015-03 | 95.3 |
| 2015-04 | 97.4 |
| 2015-05 | 97.5 |
| 2015-06 | 99.2 |
| 2015-07 | 99.7 |
| 2015-08 | 100.4 |
| 2015-09 | 100.2 |
| 2015-10 | 100.6 |
| 2015-11 | 101.5 |
| 2015-12 | 100.7 |
| 2016-01 | 101.9 |
| 2016-02 | 100.5 |
| 2016-03 | 99.5 |
| 2016-04 | 100.5 |
| 2016-05 | 102.1 |
| 2016-06 | 101.4 |
| 2016-07 | 104.0 |
| 2016-08 | 103.2 |
| 2016-09 | 104.5 |
| 2016-10 | 104.7 |
| 2016-11 | 104.7 |
| 2016-12 | 106.4 |
| 2017-01 | 105.2 |
| 2017-02 | 104.3 |
| 2017-03 | 107.1 |
| 2017-04 | 106.3 |
| 2017-05 | 107.0 |
| 2017-06 | 107.6 |
| 2017-07 | 107.2 |
| 2017-08 | 105.7 |
| 2017-09 | 106.7 |
| 2017-10 | 108.3 |
| 2017-11 | 108.1 |
| 2017-12 | 108.7 |
| 2018-01 | 109.1 |
| 2018-02 | 109.7 |
| 2018-03 | 109.4 |
| 2018-04 | 108.7 |
| 2018-05 | 108.9 |
| 2018-06 | 109.7 |
| 2018-07 | 108.2 |
| 2018-08 | 107.6 |
| 2018-09 | 107.1 |
| 2018-10 | 106.9 |
| 2018-11 | 105.1 |
| 2018-12 | 104.7 |
| 2019-01 | 104.9 |
| 2019-02 | 106.7 |
| 2019-03 | 106.8 |
| 2019-04 | 106.7 |
| 2019-05 | 104.8 |
| 2019-06 | 106.0 |
| 2019-07 | 106.0 |
| 2019-08 | 105.2 |
| 2019-09 | 105.7 |
| 2019-10 | 105.5 |
| 2019-11 | 106.2 |
| 2019-12 | 106.8 |
| 2020-01 | 104.5 |
| 2020-02 | 104.7 |
| 2020-03 | 96.0 |
| 2020-04 | 48.3 |
| 2020-05 | 52.3 |
| 2020-06 | 65.8 |
graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE
Revisions
The business climate in France for May 2020 has been revised upwards by one point, that of employment is unchanged. This revision is mainly explained by the inclusion of late responses from companies.
For further information
The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Next issue: 23 July 2020 at 08:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Next issue: 23 July 2020 at 08:45 am
