29 May 2020
2020- n° 139In March 2020, fall in sales volume in overall trade Sales volume in wholesale and retail trade - March 2020
In March 2020, the sales volume in overall trade fell (−18.4% after −0.8% in February). It decreased in all sectors: it declined sharply in wholesale trade (−12.8% after −0.9%) and in retail trade (−15.8% after −0.3%) and slumped in retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (−46.9% after −1.5%). Within retail trade, the sales volume decreased strongly in specialised stores (−27.3% after −1.6%), whereas it declined more moderately in retail trade not in stores (−6.1% after −0.3%) and in non-specialised stores (−1.5% after +1.8%) which includes in particular large-scale food retailing.
With the containment of the population since 17 March, companies’ value added tax (VAT) declarations, used for the turnover indexes, have been slightly adapted by the Directorate-General for Public Accounting ; therefore, the indexes of services production published here could be revised a little bit more than usual.
The commentary shows variations of subsections by decreasing contribution to the overall variation. The contribution of a subsection depends on the extent of the change and on its weight. All data are corrected for seasonal adjustments and working days adjustments (SA-WDA).
SA-WDA models have been reestimated on a sub-period to adjust indices on the recent past, in order to provide improved fit and better robustness (SA-WDA models were until now estimated on the whole period of indices).
In March 2020, the sales volume in overall trade fell (−18.4% after −0.8% in February). It decreased in all sectors: it declined sharply in wholesale trade (−12.8% after −0.9%) and in retail trade (−15.8% after −0.3%) and slumped in retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (−46.9% after −1.5%). Within retail trade, the sales volume decreased strongly in specialised stores (−27.3% after −1.6%), whereas it declined more moderately in retail trade not in stores (−6.1% after −0.3%) and in non-specialised stores (−1.5% after +1.8%) which includes in particular large-scale food retailing.
The sales volume in overall trade decreased over the first quarter of 2020 (−6.3%)
Over the first quarter of 2020, the sales volume in overall trade decreased strongly (−6.3%) compared to the last quarter of 2019. It decreased in all sectors: in wholesale trade (−4.3%), in retail trade and in repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (−16.9%) and retail trade (−5.2%). Within retail trade, the sales volume declined in specialised stores (−10.2%) and in retail trade not in stores (−2.3%) whereas it increased in non-specialised stores (+1.8%).
tableauSales volume in wholesale trade and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
| Motor vehicles and motorcycles - 45 | Wholesale - 46 | Retail trade - 47 | Wholesale and retail trade - G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-01 | 105.23 | 101.82 | 102.45 | 102.44 |
| 2016-02 | 104.77 | 101.9 | 103.15 | 102.63 |
| 2016-03 | 104.75 | 102.41 | 102.18 | 102.64 |
| 2016-04 | 106.03 | 101.59 | 101.68 | 102.18 |
| 2016-05 | 105.93 | 101.73 | 102.83 | 102.59 |
| 2016-06 | 105.84 | 100.25 | 102.47 | 101.61 |
| 2016-07 | 103.48 | 100.4 | 102.73 | 101.48 |
| 2016-08 | 107.83 | 100.73 | 102.58 | 102.18 |
| 2016-09 | 108.17 | 100.83 | 102.85 | 102.36 |
| 2016-10 | 107.23 | 100.95 | 104.78 | 102.88 |
| 2016-11 | 110.66 | 103.62 | 103.9 | 104.59 |
| 2016-12 | 109.41 | 102.12 | 104.12 | 103.64 |
| 2017-01 | 110.44 | 102.26 | 105.12 | 104.15 |
| 2017-02 | 111.69 | 103.05 | 105.58 | 104.9 |
| 2017-03 | 113.49 | 104.75 | 105.78 | 106.17 |
| 2017-04 | 109.34 | 102.51 | 105.19 | 104.17 |
| 2017-05 | 114.33 | 103.89 | 106.27 | 105.92 |
| 2017-06 | 114.1 | 104.77 | 105.65 | 106.22 |
| 2017-07 | 115.11 | 106.16 | 107.3 | 107.63 |
| 2017-08 | 114.44 | 105.41 | 106.05 | 106.74 |
| 2017-09 | 116.35 | 106.03 | 109.24 | 108.29 |
| 2017-10 | 117.67 | 104.26 | 106.2 | 106.54 |
| 2017-11 | 117.68 | 106.25 | 109.69 | 108.72 |
| 2017-12 | 121.12 | 106.79 | 108.46 | 109.1 |
| 2018-01 | 116.91 | 105.13 | 107.83 | 107.43 |
| 2018-02 | 117.49 | 105.56 | 108.65 | 107.99 |
| 2018-03 | 118.92 | 105.47 | 110.31 | 108.61 |
| 2018-04 | 118.96 | 105.82 | 107.91 | 108.11 |
| 2018-05 | 119.21 | 107.37 | 109.77 | 109.58 |
| 2018-06 | 120.35 | 107.34 | 109.99 | 109.78 |
| 2018-07 | 118.46 | 105.58 | 109.8 | 108.47 |
| 2018-08 | 118.84 | 107.15 | 110.53 | 109.63 |
| 2018-09 | 118.23 | 105.18 | 109.98 | 108.25 |
| 2018-10 | 120.13 | 108.56 | 111.44 | 110.88 |
| 2018-11 | 117.97 | 107.27 | 110.83 | 109.68 |
| 2018-12 | 111.43 | 107.41 | 110.25 | 108.76 |
| 2019-01 | 121.46 | 107.78 | 110.89 | 110.43 |
| 2019-02 | 123.06 | 108.99 | 112.24 | 111.74 |
| 2019-03 | 121.26 | 108.79 | 111.52 | 111.18 |
| 2019-04 | 121.49 | 109.83 | 112.26 | 112.03 |
| 2019-05 | 122.07 | 109.99 | 112.27 | 112.2 |
| 2019-06 | 122.47 | 109.18 | 112.72 | 111.91 |
| 2019-07 | 123.62 | 109.51 | 111.41 | 111.87 |
| 2019-08 | 124.66 | 110.44 | 114.91 | 113.57 |
| 2019-09 | 124.07 | 110.28 | 112.86 | 112.79 |
| 2019-10 | 123.34 | 110.6 | 113.12 | 112.96 |
| 2019-11 | 124.52 | 110.15 | 114.43 | 113.24 |
| 2019-12 | 123.17 | 109.44 | 113.02 | 112.24 |
| 2020-01 | 122.92 | 110.73 | 113.84 | 113.2 |
| 2020-02 | 121.02 | 109.7 | 113.55 | 112.28 |
| 2020-03 | 64.23 | 95.68 | 95.63 | 91.67 |
graphiqueSales volume in wholesale trade and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
- Sources: DGFiP, INSEE
The sales volume declined by 4.9% over a year
The sales volume in overall trade declined by 4.9% over a year. It decreased in all sectors: in trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (−15.7%), in wholesale trade (−2.9%) and in retail trade (−3.5%). Within retail trade, it declined in specialised stores (−8.2%) whereas it grew in non-specialised stores (+2.8%) and stabilized in retail trade not in stores.
tableauSales volume in wholesale trade and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
| NACE Classification | Weight | Change in % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar/Feb. | Feb./Jan. | q-o-q(1) | y-o-y(2) | ||
| G Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motorvehicles and motorcycles | 10000 | -18.4 | -0.8 | -6.3 | -4.9 |
| 45 Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehiclesand motorcycles | 1272 | -46.9 | -1.5 | -16.9 | -15.7 |
| 46 Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles andmotorcycles | 5777 | -12.8 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -2.9 |
| 47 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles andmotorcycles | 2952 | -15.8 | -0.3 | -5.2 | -3.5 |
| 471 Retail sale in non-specialised stores | 1109 | -1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 |
| 472 to 477 Retail sale in specialised stores | 1622 | -27.3 | -1.6 | -10.2 | -8.2 |
| 478 and 479 Retail trade not in stores | 221 | -6.1 | -0.3 | -2.3 | 0.0 |
- (1) Quarter-on-quarter: last three months /previous three months.
- (2) Year-on-year: last three months / same three months of the previous year.
- The codes correspond to different levels of aggregation of the classification NAF rev.2
- Sources: DGFiP, INSEE
In March, the sales volume in overall trade declined sharply
The sales volume slumped in wholesale trade (−12.8% after −0.9%). It decreased in all subsections, particularly in other machinery, equipment and supplies (−23.3% after +0.5%) and in other specialised wholesale (−16.3% after −0.2%). By contrast, the decline is more moderate in agricultural, raw materials and live animals (−6.1% after +0.2%) and in food, beverages and tobacco (−7.6%). At a lower level, the sales volume increased in some subsections, such as wholesale of chemical products (item 46.75), wholesale of pharmaceutical goods (item 46.46) and food buying groups (item 46.17).
The sales volume collapsed in trade and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (−46.9% after −1.5%), particularly in sale of motor vehicles (−52.8% after −1.0%) with the closing of car dealers. The fall in maintenance and repair of motor vehicles was less marked (−30%).
The sales volume slumped in retail trade (−15.8% after −0.3%), particularly in sale of other goods in specialised stores (−22.7% after −2.0%) and in sale of other household equipment (−41.5% after −1.5%). By contrast, the decline is more moderate in non-specialised stores (−1.5% after +1.8%) with the resistance of food purchasing, as well as in retail trade not in stores (−6.1% after −0.3%) which includes e-commerce and sales via stalls and markets.
tableauSales volume in wholesale trade and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
| Nace Classification | Weight | Mar 2020 | Change in % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar/Feb. | Feb./Jan. | T/T–1 (1) | |||
| G Wolesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles | 10000 | 91.7 | -18.4 | -0.8 | -6.3 |
| 45 Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles and moto. | 1272 | 64.2 | -46.9 | -1.5 | -16.9 |
| 451 Sale of motor vehicles | 850 | 60.0 | -52.8 | -1.0 | -18.6 |
| 452 Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles | 89 | 76.1 | -30.0 | -7.6 | -13.9 |
| 453 Sale of motor vehicle parts and accessories | 306 | 72.7 | -33.0 | -1.1 | -13.0 |
| 454 Sale, maintenance and repair of moto. and related parts and accessories | 27 | 64.0 | -44.0 | -6.1 | -11.4 |
| 46 Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and moto. | 5777 | 95.7 | -12.8 | -0.9 | -4.3 |
| 461 Wholesale on a fee or contract basis | 813 | 102.7 | -11.0 | -2.6 | -2.2 |
| 462 Wholesale of agricultural raw materials and live animals | 390 | 91.5 | -6.1 | 0.2 | 3.0 |
| 463 Wholesale of food, beverages and tobacco | 1029 | 96.1 | -7.6 | -0.5 | -2.7 |
| 464 Wholesale of household goods | 1130 | 101.5 | -8.1 | -2.6 | -4.7 |
| 465 Wholesale of information and communication equipment | 331 | 108.9 | -13.1 | -0.2 | -6.2 |
| 466 Wholesale of other machinery, equipmt and supplies | 716 | 88.2 | -23.3 | 0.5 | -8.7 |
| 467 Other specialised wholesale | 1132 | 87.5 | -16.3 | -0.2 | -4.6 |
| 469 Non specialised wholesale trade | 236 | 91.8 | -22.1 | 0.7 | -6.8 |
| 47 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and moto. | 2952 | 95.6 | -15.8 | -0.3 | -5.2 |
| 471 Non-specialised stores | 1109 | 111.1 | -1.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 472 to 477 Specialised stores | 1622 | 80.8 | -27.3 | -1.6 | -10.2 |
| 472 Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco | 155 | 113.3 | -7.9 | -0.7 | -1.9 |
| 473 Retail sale of automotive fuel | 224 | 67.3 | -28.0 | -1.1 | -9.8 |
| 474 Retail sale of information and communication equipmt | 65 | 90.7 | -33.3 | -1.5 | -11.0 |
| 475 Retail sale of other household equipment | 310 | 63.8 | -41.5 | -1.5 | -14.0 |
| 476 Retail sale of cultural and recreation goods | 118 | 61.9 | -43.4 | -1.5 | -16.0 |
| 477 Retail sale of other goods | 750 | 87.3 | -22.7 | -2.0 | -9.7 |
| 478 et 479 Retail trade not in stores | 221 | 126.7 | -6.1 | -0.3 | -2.3 |
- (1) Quarter-on-quarter: last three months /previous three months.
- Sources: DGFiP, INSEE
Forecast
According to the first early estimates, the sales volume in retail trade except of motor vehicles and motorcycles should have fallen again in April 2020 (−20.0%). It should have decreased by 15.0% year on year (last three months compared to the same three months of previous year).
Revisions
The variation in the sales volume of overall trade in February 2020 has been revised downwards, at −0.8% instead of −0.7% initially published.
tableauRevision of variations
| Feb./Jan. | Jan./Dec. | Dec./Nov. | Q4 2019/Q3 2019 | 2019/2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G Overall trade | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.02 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| Raw series | 0.09 | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
| SA-WDA parameters | -0.20 | 0.07 | 0.02 | -0.02 | 0.00 |
- How to read: in the wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, the SA-WDA variation between January and February 2020 is revised by -0.11 points. +0.09 points are due to the raw series' revision and -0.20 points to the new calculation of the SA-WDA parameters.
- Sources: DGFiP, INSEE
For further information
Next issue: 30 June 2020 at 12h00
Documentation
Sales volume index in trade (pdf,35 Ko)
La note méthodologique simplifiee_anglais (pdf,28 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
Next issue: 30 June 2020 at 12h00
Time series: Sales volume in wholesale and retail trade
Time series: Turnover index in wholesale and retail trade
