27 May 2020
2020- n° 130Between March and May 2020, the business climate in wholesale trade has fallen steeply Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - May 2020
According to the managers surveyed in May 2020, the business climate in wholesale trade has fallen steeply since March. The composite indicator has lost 31 points over two months and stands at 66, far below its long-term average (100). The balances of opinion related to past activity, to past and forecasted supplies have drastically driven down the business climate indicator.
Due to the context of the fight against the propagation of Covid-19, statistics published in this Informations Rapides issue could be less accurate than usual. Companies’ responses were collected between 28 April and 19 May 2020, to a large extent during general lockdown, and solely online. Consequently, the response rate is lower this month than usual.
In addition, for the May data, the method to correct non-response has been modified compared to the usual method which reproduces past responses from non-responding companies. We have considered that the non-responding units in May would have responded as the average of the responding units of the elementary stratum to which they belong.
- The balance of opinion on general business outlook has almost reached its 2009 low-point
- All the balances of opinion regarding past activity have markedly declined
- The balances related to workforce have fallen as well
- The balances of opinion on selling prices have remained steady
- Updates
- For further information
According to the managers surveyed in May 2020, the business climate in wholesale trade has fallen steeply since March. The composite indicator has lost 31 points over two months and stands at 66, far below its long-term average (100). The balances of opinion related to past activity, to past and forecasted supplies have drastically driven down the business climate indicator.
tableauComposite indicator
| Composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-B1 | 110.6 |
| 1998-B2 | 114.5 |
| 1998-B3 | 114.4 |
| 1998-B4 | 112.7 |
| 1998-B5 | 106.8 |
| 1998-B6 | 104.2 |
| 1999-B1 | 104.2 |
| 1999-B2 | 98.0 |
| 1999-B3 | 101.3 |
| 1999-B4 | 100.4 |
| 1999-B5 | 109.0 |
| 1999-B6 | 113.3 |
| 2000-B1 | 116.1 |
| 2000-B2 | 112.5 |
| 2000-B3 | 115.0 |
| 2000-B4 | 117.5 |
| 2000-B5 | 115.4 |
| 2000-B6 | 113.4 |
| 2001-B1 | 109.3 |
| 2001-B2 | 112.1 |
| 2001-B3 | 105.4 |
| 2001-B4 | 103.0 |
| 2001-B5 | 101.8 |
| 2001-B6 | 96.7 |
| 2002-B1 | 97.6 |
| 2002-B2 | 92.2 |
| 2002-B3 | 91.8 |
| 2002-B4 | 91.0 |
| 2002-B5 | 93.2 |
| 2002-B6 | 97.1 |
| 2003-B1 | 96.3 |
| 2003-B2 | 89.3 |
| 2003-B3 | 88.0 |
| 2003-B4 | 87.6 |
| 2003-B5 | 88.1 |
| 2003-B6 | 90.2 |
| 2004-B1 | 96.2 |
| 2004-B2 | 94.6 |
| 2004-B3 | 98.8 |
| 2004-B4 | 100.1 |
| 2004-B5 | 99.5 |
| 2004-B6 | 95.9 |
| 2005-B1 | 100.5 |
| 2005-B2 | 97.3 |
| 2005-B3 | 92.2 |
| 2005-B4 | 95.8 |
| 2005-B5 | 94.6 |
| 2005-B6 | 99.5 |
| 2006-B1 | 103.7 |
| 2006-B2 | 98.9 |
| 2006-B3 | 102.0 |
| 2006-B4 | 107.4 |
| 2006-B5 | 106.8 |
| 2006-B6 | 110.3 |
| 2007-B1 | 107.9 |
| 2007-B2 | 111.7 |
| 2007-B3 | 110.4 |
| 2007-B4 | 107.3 |
| 2007-B5 | 111.6 |
| 2007-B6 | 108.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 107.2 |
| 2008-B2 | 106.7 |
| 2008-B3 | 101.6 |
| 2008-B4 | 96.6 |
| 2008-B5 | 94.3 |
| 2008-B6 | 83.8 |
| 2009-B1 | 78.9 |
| 2009-B2 | 66.7 |
| 2009-B3 | 68.0 |
| 2009-B4 | 70.0 |
| 2009-B5 | 75.9 |
| 2009-B6 | 77.2 |
| 2010-B1 | 84.5 |
| 2010-B2 | 84.7 |
| 2010-B3 | 94.5 |
| 2010-B4 | 100.4 |
| 2010-B5 | 104.8 |
| 2010-B6 | 104.3 |
| 2011-B1 | 105.8 |
| 2011-B2 | 108.3 |
| 2011-B3 | 107.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 105.7 |
| 2011-B5 | 100.0 |
| 2011-B6 | 95.8 |
| 2012-B1 | 95.1 |
| 2012-B2 | 99.1 |
| 2012-B3 | 92.8 |
| 2012-B4 | 94.6 |
| 2012-B5 | 90.6 |
| 2012-B6 | 88.8 |
| 2013-B1 | 88.5 |
| 2013-B2 | 88.0 |
| 2013-B3 | 87.7 |
| 2013-B4 | 87.1 |
| 2013-B5 | 96.7 |
| 2013-B6 | 97.4 |
| 2014-B1 | 96.7 |
| 2014-B2 | 97.8 |
| 2014-B3 | 97.6 |
| 2014-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2014-B5 | 90.9 |
| 2014-B6 | 95.2 |
| 2015-B1 | 95.4 |
| 2015-B2 | 96.0 |
| 2015-B3 | 100.7 |
| 2015-B4 | 101.9 |
| 2015-B5 | 99.2 |
| 2015-B6 | 101.2 |
| 2016-B1 | 101.8 |
| 2016-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2016-B3 | 101.8 |
| 2016-B4 | 102.9 |
| 2016-B5 | 97.4 |
| 2016-B6 | 97.6 |
| 2017-B1 | 103.7 |
| 2017-B2 | 102.8 |
| 2017-B3 | 104.2 |
| 2017-B4 | 109.6 |
| 2017-B5 | 108.5 |
| 2017-B6 | 110.5 |
| 2018-B1 | 106.8 |
| 2018-B2 | 109.2 |
| 2018-B3 | 104.0 |
| 2018-B4 | 102.2 |
| 2018-B5 | 103.4 |
| 2018-B6 | 103.2 |
| 2019-B1 | 99.4 |
| 2019-B2 | 105.3 |
| 2019-B3 | 107.1 |
| 2019-B4 | 105.9 |
| 2019-B5 | 106.0 |
| 2019-B6 | 105.9 |
| 2020-B1 | 103.5 |
| 2020-B2 | 96.7 |
| 2020-B3 | 66.0 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
The balance of opinion on general business outlook has almost reached its 2009 low-point
All balances of opinion related to forthcoming activity have plummeted again. The balance on the general business outlook in wholesale trade has shed 28 points compared to March, to -73, falling almost as low as in March 2009 (-76).
The balance related to total ordering intentions has fallen as well and has reached -50, below its 2009 low-point. It has receded in all sub-sectors, except in the wholesale trade of raw agricultural products. The fall has been particularly strong in the wholesale trade of industrial capital goods and in the other specialised wholesale trade (intermediate products, fuel, chemicals and the like).
The outlook for the wholesale trade with foreign countries has severely worsened as well. The balance related to the traders’ intention to order from abroad and the balance related to shipments to be delivered abroad have each lost about 25 points between March and May. Thus, they have dropped close to their previous low point of 2009.
All the balances of opinion regarding past activity have markedly declined
In May 2020, the balance on past sales as a whole and the balance on the volume of received merchandise have dropped sharply in comparison with March. The balances of opinion regarding past sales and received deliveries have both lost more than 35 points. The former has hit its 2009 low-point, the latter has moved below its.
The balances related to workforce have fallen as well
The balances of opinion regarding the recent and the forecasted change in workforce size have both fallen drastically. The balance on its recent trend now lies ten points below its 2009 lowest value, whereas the one on its forecasted trend lies close to its 2009 low-point.
The balances of opinion on selling prices have remained steady
In May, the balances of opinion regarding selling prices, past as well as expected, have remained steady after a steep fall in March 2020. They lie far below their long-term average.
Finally, far more wholesalers have considered their cash flow situation to be difficult in May than in March. The related balance has lost 30 points with respect to March and has reached a new low-point since the balance was created in 1991.
Updates
The business climate in wholesale trade of March 2020 has been revised downwards by two points because some units have exited the set considered to compute balances. The January answers of these non-responding units had been carried forwards for the temporary estimate in March.
tableauWholesale trade sectors
| Ave* | Nov.-19 | Jan.-20 | March-20 | May-20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicators | 100 | 106 | 104 | 97 | 66 |
| General business outlook | -23 | -4 | -12 | -45 | -73 |
| Sales | -14 | -8 | -13 | -15 | -50 |
| export sales | -15 | -7 | -12 | -19 | -51 |
| Received merchandise | -9 | -6 | -10 | -11 | -48 |
| received from abroad | -10 | -6 | -8 | -15 | -46 |
| Ordering intentions | -15 | -9 | -8 | -15 | -50 |
| ordering from abroad | -15 | -8 | -8 | -23 | -50 |
| Shipments abroad | -15 | -7 | -7 | -25 | -49 |
| Stocks | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
| Past workforce | -1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | -31 |
| Expected workforce | -2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | -20 |
| Cash position | -9 | -4 | -4 | -5 | -35 |
| Past selling prices | 7 | 1 | 4 | -4 | -4 |
| Expected selling prices | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | -1 |
- * : average since september 1979
- Source : INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
tableauWholesale trade sectors
| Ave* | Nov.-19 | Jan.-20 | March-20 | May-20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | -13 | -21 | -24 | -23 | -3 |
| Export sales | -16 | 3 | -6 | -36 | -13 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -10 | -7 | -15 | -38 | -7 |
| Ordering intentions | -12 | -9 | -7 | -27 | -25 |
| Current stock | 5 | 11 | 8 | 0 | -4 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | -14 | -11 | -15 | -19 | -31 |
| Export sales | -12 | -13 | -9 | -13 | -45 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -12 | 2 | -8 | -39 |
| Ordering intentions | -11 | -9 | -6 | -12 | -38 |
| Current stocks | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -6 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | -10 | -2 | -5 | -15 | -59 |
| Export sales | -11 | -5 | -9 | -8 | -56 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -6 | 1 | -5 | -16 | -45 |
| Ordering intentions | -14 | -3 | -8 | -13 | -48 |
| Current stock | 12 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 21 |
| Information and communication equipment | |||||
| Sales | -8 | -5 | -19 | -5 | -52 |
| Export sales | -13 | -6 | -11 | -18 | -39 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -7 | 2 | -18 | -10 | -49 |
| Ordering intentions | -10 | -13 | -3 | -15 | -45 |
| Current stock | 9 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 21 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | -16 | -5 | -10 | -14 | -84 |
| Export sales | -21 | -9 | -11 | -24 | -77 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -6 | -4 | -9 | -72 |
| Ordering intentions | -21 | -11 | -7 | -17 | -75 |
| Current stock | 12 | 15 | 20 | 14 | 28 |
| Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | -17 | -5 | -14 | -10 | -62 |
| Export sales | -19 | -9 | -25 | -25 | -62 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -9 | -18 | -17 | -57 |
| Ordering intentions | -18 | -13 | -13 | -14 | -64 |
| Current stock | 6 | 6 | -1 | 2 | 0 |
- * : average since september 1979
- Source : INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
tableauPast activity (sales) in capital goods
| Capital goods in information and communication | Other industrial capital goods | |
|---|---|---|
| 2008-B1 | -23.7 | 5.2 |
| 2008-B2 | -5.5 | 4.4 |
| 2008-B3 | 2.8 | -3.5 |
| 2008-B4 | -7.0 | -14.3 |
| 2008-B5 | -10.8 | -20.7 |
| 2008-B6 | -15.4 | -35.4 |
| 2009-B1 | -32.7 | -57.0 |
| 2009-B2 | -60.4 | -74.2 |
| 2009-B3 | -63.9 | -67.8 |
| 2009-B4 | -63.0 | -70.0 |
| 2009-B5 | -56.5 | -70.0 |
| 2009-B6 | -20.5 | -68.2 |
| 2010-B1 | -13.5 | -56.7 |
| 2010-B2 | -36.0 | -57.5 |
| 2010-B3 | -0.5 | -40.3 |
| 2010-B4 | 29.5 | -32.9 |
| 2010-B5 | 19.8 | -16.0 |
| 2010-B6 | 19.9 | -18.1 |
| 2011-B1 | 14.6 | -17.4 |
| 2011-B2 | -11.2 | 1.8 |
| 2011-B3 | 0.4 | 6.7 |
| 2011-B4 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| 2011-B5 | -6.6 | 0.1 |
| 2011-B6 | -27.6 | -12.8 |
| 2012-B1 | -12.2 | -12.2 |
| 2012-B2 | -15.9 | -15.4 |
| 2012-B3 | -24.1 | -28.8 |
| 2012-B4 | -22.6 | -30.0 |
| 2012-B5 | -16.2 | -28.0 |
| 2012-B6 | -29.9 | -36.8 |
| 2013-B1 | -37.1 | -41.7 |
| 2013-B2 | -12.4 | -33.6 |
| 2013-B3 | -18.5 | -37.8 |
| 2013-B4 | -39.0 | -38.3 |
| 2013-B5 | -16.7 | -30.6 |
| 2013-B6 | -11.6 | -25.7 |
| 2014-B1 | -28.3 | -28.0 |
| 2014-B2 | -14.4 | -19.9 |
| 2014-B3 | -15.1 | -27.2 |
| 2014-B4 | -9.7 | -38.8 |
| 2014-B5 | -24.0 | -40.9 |
| 2014-B6 | -9.3 | -38.5 |
| 2015-B1 | -12.5 | -35.9 |
| 2015-B2 | -7.5 | -32.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 3.3 | -28.6 |
| 2015-B4 | -3.8 | -22.4 |
| 2015-B5 | -3.3 | -24.6 |
| 2015-B6 | -7.9 | -27.8 |
| 2016-B1 | 0.5 | -18.4 |
| 2016-B2 | 0.1 | -21.4 |
| 2016-B3 | -11.1 | -17.4 |
| 2016-B4 | -0.8 | -17.0 |
| 2016-B5 | -3.6 | -24.5 |
| 2016-B6 | -11.6 | -19.2 |
| 2017-B1 | -8.3 | -16.2 |
| 2017-B2 | -6.0 | -12.2 |
| 2017-B3 | -7.3 | -6.8 |
| 2017-B4 | -0.6 | 0.5 |
| 2017-B5 | -1.3 | -1.7 |
| 2017-B6 | -7.0 | 8.9 |
| 2018-B1 | -13.0 | 8.0 |
| 2018-B2 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| 2018-B3 | 0.9 | -5.0 |
| 2018-B4 | 7.5 | -7.8 |
| 2018-B5 | 13.4 | -6.7 |
| 2018-B6 | 5.8 | -9.4 |
| 2019-B1 | -21.4 | -16.3 |
| 2019-B2 | 20.0 | -3.2 |
| 2019-B3 | 10.4 | -1.0 |
| 2019-B4 | -20.8 | -4.2 |
| 2019-B5 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| 2019-B6 | -5.2 | -4.8 |
| 2020-B1 | -19.1 | -10.3 |
| 2020-B2 | -4.8 | -13.8 |
| 2020-B3 | -52.1 | -83.8 |
graphiquePast activity (sales) in capital goods
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
For further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 26 July 2020 at 8:45 am.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 26 July 2020 at 8:45 am.
Time series : Wholesale trade
