26 March 2020
2020- n° 79In March 2020, both the French business climate and the employment climate have fallen
steeply Business climate indicator and turning point indicator - March 2020
In March 2020, the business climate has fallen strongly. At 95, the composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main market sectors, has lost ten points and has experienced its biggest drop since the start of the series (1980). The former biggest drop was in October 2008, with a fall of nine points.
Compared to February, the business climates has deteriorated very strongly in services (-14 points) and in retail trade (-13 points). The business climate in manufacturing has lost three points, while the one in building construction is stable at a high level. The business climate in wholesale trade, bimonthly, has lost five points compared to January.
Given the context of the fight against the spread of COVID-19, the statistics published in this issue of Informations Rapides may be less accurate than usual.
Companies’ responses were collected between 26 February and 23 March 2020. However, as of 14 March, only the responses received via the internet could be processed. In addition, many companies may have encountered difficulties in responding to the survey. Most responses were collected before 16 March 2020, the date from which schools have been closed.
The French business climate has fallen steeply and in an unprecedented way
In March 2020, the business climate has fallen strongly. At 95, the composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main market sectors, has lost ten points and has experienced its biggest drop since the start of the series (1980). The former biggest drop was in October 2008, with a fall of nine points.
Compared to February, the business climates has deteriorated very strongly in services (-14 points) and in retail trade (-13 points). The business climate in manufacturing has lost three points, while the one in building construction is stable at a high level. The business climate in wholesale trade, bimonthly, has lost five points compared to January.
tableauFrench business climate composite indicator
| French business climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 108.7 |
| 1998-02 | 110.0 |
| 1998-03 | 112.9 |
| 1998-04 | 111.0 |
| 1998-05 | 112.0 |
| 1998-06 | 113.2 |
| 1998-07 | 112.4 |
| 1998-08 | 111.6 |
| 1998-09 | 109.5 |
| 1998-10 | 107.0 |
| 1998-11 | 105.1 |
| 1998-12 | 102.3 |
| 1999-01 | 102.2 |
| 1999-02 | 102.2 |
| 1999-03 | 100.6 |
| 1999-04 | 101.4 |
| 1999-05 | 103.1 |
| 1999-06 | 102.5 |
| 1999-07 | 107.6 |
| 1999-08 | 110.5 |
| 1999-09 | 113.6 |
| 1999-10 | 115.8 |
| 1999-11 | 117.3 |
| 1999-12 | 118.6 |
| 2000-01 | 115.5 |
| 2000-02 | 116.0 |
| 2000-03 | 116.8 |
| 2000-04 | 116.6 |
| 2000-05 | 115.9 |
| 2000-06 | 117.5 |
| 2000-07 | 117.1 |
| 2000-08 | 117.8 |
| 2000-09 | 117.9 |
| 2000-10 | 116.5 |
| 2000-11 | 114.3 |
| 2000-12 | 113.7 |
| 2001-01 | 112.7 |
| 2001-02 | 112.6 |
| 2001-03 | 112.7 |
| 2001-04 | 107.4 |
| 2001-05 | 105.1 |
| 2001-06 | 104.1 |
| 2001-07 | 101.8 |
| 2001-08 | 100.4 |
| 2001-09 | 98.7 |
| 2001-10 | 93.8 |
| 2001-11 | 93.9 |
| 2001-12 | 94.5 |
| 2002-01 | 95.8 |
| 2002-02 | 96.4 |
| 2002-03 | 98.4 |
| 2002-04 | 101.7 |
| 2002-05 | 102.9 |
| 2002-06 | 101.9 |
| 2002-07 | 99.0 |
| 2002-08 | 98.3 |
| 2002-09 | 97.2 |
| 2002-10 | 95.4 |
| 2002-11 | 96.9 |
| 2002-12 | 99.5 |
| 2003-01 | 95.9 |
| 2003-02 | 95.0 |
| 2003-03 | 89.6 |
| 2003-04 | 87.2 |
| 2003-05 | 91.9 |
| 2003-06 | 92.0 |
| 2003-07 | 94.4 |
| 2003-08 | 95.3 |
| 2003-09 | 95.3 |
| 2003-10 | 96.3 |
| 2003-11 | 100.4 |
| 2003-12 | 101.7 |
| 2004-01 | 105.7 |
| 2004-02 | 104.8 |
| 2004-03 | 105.0 |
| 2004-04 | 105.9 |
| 2004-05 | 105.8 |
| 2004-06 | 105.2 |
| 2004-07 | 106.6 |
| 2004-08 | 106.7 |
| 2004-09 | 106.6 |
| 2004-10 | 107.6 |
| 2004-11 | 105.2 |
| 2004-12 | 106.5 |
| 2005-01 | 106.0 |
| 2005-02 | 106.2 |
| 2005-03 | 105.8 |
| 2005-04 | 105.0 |
| 2005-05 | 102.8 |
| 2005-06 | 103.9 |
| 2005-07 | 104.5 |
| 2005-08 | 104.4 |
| 2005-09 | 103.7 |
| 2005-10 | 106.6 |
| 2005-11 | 106.5 |
| 2005-12 | 107.8 |
| 2006-01 | 109.1 |
| 2006-02 | 107.2 |
| 2006-03 | 107.4 |
| 2006-04 | 108.1 |
| 2006-05 | 109.8 |
| 2006-06 | 109.2 |
| 2006-07 | 111.0 |
| 2006-08 | 111.3 |
| 2006-09 | 111.7 |
| 2006-10 | 111.6 |
| 2006-11 | 112.5 |
| 2006-12 | 110.9 |
| 2007-01 | 110.9 |
| 2007-02 | 112.6 |
| 2007-03 | 113.0 |
| 2007-04 | 113.8 |
| 2007-05 | 114.1 |
| 2007-06 | 115.3 |
| 2007-07 | 114.5 |
| 2007-08 | 113.3 |
| 2007-09 | 112.4 |
| 2007-10 | 111.7 |
| 2007-11 | 111.8 |
| 2007-12 | 111.4 |
| 2008-01 | 110.3 |
| 2008-02 | 108.8 |
| 2008-03 | 108.5 |
| 2008-04 | 105.7 |
| 2008-05 | 102.9 |
| 2008-06 | 100.0 |
| 2008-07 | 95.6 |
| 2008-08 | 94.2 |
| 2008-09 | 91.5 |
| 2008-10 | 82.5 |
| 2008-11 | 79.1 |
| 2008-12 | 75.3 |
| 2009-01 | 73.4 |
| 2009-02 | 71.0 |
| 2009-03 | 67.9 |
| 2009-04 | 68.8 |
| 2009-05 | 72.5 |
| 2009-06 | 75.4 |
| 2009-07 | 77.5 |
| 2009-08 | 81.4 |
| 2009-09 | 85.0 |
| 2009-10 | 87.6 |
| 2009-11 | 89.9 |
| 2009-12 | 90.5 |
| 2010-01 | 92.6 |
| 2010-02 | 93.1 |
| 2010-03 | 92.5 |
| 2010-04 | 96.8 |
| 2010-05 | 97.9 |
| 2010-06 | 97.6 |
| 2010-07 | 99.8 |
| 2010-08 | 102.1 |
| 2010-09 | 103.6 |
| 2010-10 | 104.7 |
| 2010-11 | 105.0 |
| 2010-12 | 106.7 |
| 2011-01 | 107.7 |
| 2011-02 | 108.5 |
| 2011-03 | 109.4 |
| 2011-04 | 109.2 |
| 2011-05 | 108.1 |
| 2011-06 | 108.4 |
| 2011-07 | 106.3 |
| 2011-08 | 101.0 |
| 2011-09 | 97.7 |
| 2011-10 | 96.3 |
| 2011-11 | 94.3 |
| 2011-12 | 92.9 |
| 2012-01 | 92.1 |
| 2012-02 | 91.9 |
| 2012-03 | 94.5 |
| 2012-04 | 95.1 |
| 2012-05 | 91.7 |
| 2012-06 | 90.5 |
| 2012-07 | 88.3 |
| 2012-08 | 87.8 |
| 2012-09 | 86.2 |
| 2012-10 | 84.1 |
| 2012-11 | 86.0 |
| 2012-12 | 86.7 |
| 2013-01 | 86.6 |
| 2013-02 | 86.5 |
| 2013-03 | 84.6 |
| 2013-04 | 83.0 |
| 2013-05 | 84.2 |
| 2013-06 | 85.3 |
| 2013-07 | 87.2 |
| 2013-08 | 90.5 |
| 2013-09 | 93.7 |
| 2013-10 | 93.4 |
| 2013-11 | 92.6 |
| 2013-12 | 92.5 |
| 2014-01 | 93.1 |
| 2014-02 | 93.0 |
| 2014-03 | 94.4 |
| 2014-04 | 94.2 |
| 2014-05 | 93.9 |
| 2014-06 | 92.7 |
| 2014-07 | 92.2 |
| 2014-08 | 90.9 |
| 2014-09 | 90.2 |
| 2014-10 | 90.3 |
| 2014-11 | 92.1 |
| 2014-12 | 92.3 |
| 2015-01 | 92.6 |
| 2015-02 | 93.4 |
| 2015-03 | 94.6 |
| 2015-04 | 95.7 |
| 2015-05 | 96.6 |
| 2015-06 | 97.5 |
| 2015-07 | 98.0 |
| 2015-08 | 99.5 |
| 2015-09 | 99.3 |
| 2015-10 | 100.3 |
| 2015-11 | 100.4 |
| 2015-12 | 98.9 |
| 2016-01 | 100.8 |
| 2016-02 | 99.9 |
| 2016-03 | 100.0 |
| 2016-04 | 99.9 |
| 2016-05 | 101.8 |
| 2016-06 | 100.1 |
| 2016-07 | 100.8 |
| 2016-08 | 100.4 |
| 2016-09 | 100.8 |
| 2016-10 | 101.1 |
| 2016-11 | 101.4 |
| 2016-12 | 103.8 |
| 2017-01 | 103.3 |
| 2017-02 | 103.9 |
| 2017-03 | 103.9 |
| 2017-04 | 104.1 |
| 2017-05 | 105.1 |
| 2017-06 | 106.7 |
| 2017-07 | 107.5 |
| 2017-08 | 108.6 |
| 2017-09 | 109.1 |
| 2017-10 | 109.0 |
| 2017-11 | 110.4 |
| 2017-12 | 111.4 |
| 2018-01 | 110.7 |
| 2018-02 | 109.7 |
| 2018-03 | 109.4 |
| 2018-04 | 108.5 |
| 2018-05 | 106.6 |
| 2018-06 | 106.5 |
| 2018-07 | 105.8 |
| 2018-08 | 105.2 |
| 2018-09 | 105.0 |
| 2018-10 | 103.9 |
| 2018-11 | 104.4 |
| 2018-12 | 101.5 |
| 2019-01 | 102.1 |
| 2019-02 | 103.1 |
| 2019-03 | 104.6 |
| 2019-04 | 105.3 |
| 2019-05 | 106.0 |
| 2019-06 | 106.2 |
| 2019-07 | 105.1 |
| 2019-08 | 105.3 |
| 2019-09 | 106.3 |
| 2019-10 | 105.4 |
| 2019-11 | 105.8 |
| 2019-12 | 105.1 |
| 2020-01 | 104.6 |
| 2020-02 | 105.0 |
| 2020-03 | 94.7 |
graphiqueFrench business climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE.
tableauBusiness and employment climates
| Nov. 19 | Dec. 19 | Jan. 20 | Feb. 20 | Mar. 20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business climates | |||||
| France | 106 | 105 | 105 | 105 | 95 |
| Manufacturing | 102 | 98 | 102 | 101 | 98 |
| Building construction | 111 | 111 | 111 | 112 | 112 |
| Services | 106 | 107 | 106 | 106 | 92 |
| Retail trade | 106 | 108 | 104 | 105 | 92 |
| Wholesale trade | 106 | 104 | 99 | ||
| Employment climate | |||||
| Employment | 107 | 107 | 105 | 105 | 96 |
- Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys
The employment climate has also fallen in an unprecedented way
In March 2020, the employment climate has lost nine points, its biggest fall since the beginning of the series (1991). The former biggest decrease was in November 2008, with a decline of eight points. At 96, the employment climate has moved clearly below its long term average.
tableauFrench employment climate composite indicator
| French employment climate composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-01 | 101.9 |
| 1998-02 | 103.7 |
| 1998-03 | 105.6 |
| 1998-04 | 107.3 |
| 1998-05 | 107.9 |
| 1998-06 | 109.0 |
| 1998-07 | 110.3 |
| 1998-08 | 108.5 |
| 1998-09 | 106.7 |
| 1998-10 | 105.7 |
| 1998-11 | 105.3 |
| 1998-12 | 104.7 |
| 1999-01 | 103.9 |
| 1999-02 | 105.4 |
| 1999-03 | 106.8 |
| 1999-04 | 108.3 |
| 1999-05 | 108.5 |
| 1999-06 | 109.0 |
| 1999-07 | 109.8 |
| 1999-08 | 112.4 |
| 1999-09 | 115.0 |
| 1999-10 | 117.3 |
| 1999-11 | 118.2 |
| 1999-12 | 118.8 |
| 2000-01 | 119.3 |
| 2000-02 | 117.1 |
| 2000-03 | 115.0 |
| 2000-04 | 113.0 |
| 2000-05 | 116.9 |
| 2000-06 | 120.7 |
| 2000-07 | 117.5 |
| 2000-08 | 119.3 |
| 2000-09 | 120.3 |
| 2000-10 | 120.5 |
| 2000-11 | 122.7 |
| 2000-12 | 121.1 |
| 2001-01 | 119.0 |
| 2001-02 | 119.8 |
| 2001-03 | 118.7 |
| 2001-04 | 117.7 |
| 2001-05 | 113.4 |
| 2001-06 | 111.4 |
| 2001-07 | 107.4 |
| 2001-08 | 108.0 |
| 2001-09 | 107.8 |
| 2001-10 | 108.8 |
| 2001-11 | 102.8 |
| 2001-12 | 105.1 |
| 2002-01 | 102.7 |
| 2002-02 | 100.7 |
| 2002-03 | 102.4 |
| 2002-04 | 107.0 |
| 2002-05 | 104.3 |
| 2002-06 | 102.7 |
| 2002-07 | 103.7 |
| 2002-08 | 101.2 |
| 2002-09 | 98.0 |
| 2002-10 | 94.1 |
| 2002-11 | 97.7 |
| 2002-12 | 96.4 |
| 2003-01 | 97.5 |
| 2003-02 | 95.6 |
| 2003-03 | 91.7 |
| 2003-04 | 90.3 |
| 2003-05 | 89.4 |
| 2003-06 | 92.2 |
| 2003-07 | 93.2 |
| 2003-08 | 93.9 |
| 2003-09 | 94.1 |
| 2003-10 | 94.7 |
| 2003-11 | 93.8 |
| 2003-12 | 96.9 |
| 2004-01 | 98.5 |
| 2004-02 | 97.1 |
| 2004-03 | 100.8 |
| 2004-04 | 101.1 |
| 2004-05 | 104.1 |
| 2004-06 | 100.9 |
| 2004-07 | 101.8 |
| 2004-08 | 101.8 |
| 2004-09 | 101.4 |
| 2004-10 | 103.0 |
| 2004-11 | 103.2 |
| 2004-12 | 102.0 |
| 2005-01 | 102.2 |
| 2005-02 | 102.0 |
| 2005-03 | 104.9 |
| 2005-04 | 102.2 |
| 2005-05 | 102.9 |
| 2005-06 | 102.2 |
| 2005-07 | 102.8 |
| 2005-08 | 103.5 |
| 2005-09 | 103.9 |
| 2005-10 | 104.1 |
| 2005-11 | 103.7 |
| 2005-12 | 103.0 |
| 2006-01 | 104.1 |
| 2006-02 | 104.0 |
| 2006-03 | 104.6 |
| 2006-04 | 107.3 |
| 2006-05 | 108.6 |
| 2006-06 | 110.8 |
| 2006-07 | 110.4 |
| 2006-08 | 109.6 |
| 2006-09 | 108.4 |
| 2006-10 | 109.3 |
| 2006-11 | 111.0 |
| 2006-12 | 111.7 |
| 2007-01 | 109.7 |
| 2007-02 | 112.0 |
| 2007-03 | 111.7 |
| 2007-04 | 112.2 |
| 2007-05 | 114.2 |
| 2007-06 | 113.6 |
| 2007-07 | 111.8 |
| 2007-08 | 113.3 |
| 2007-09 | 114.2 |
| 2007-10 | 112.1 |
| 2007-11 | 113.7 |
| 2007-12 | 115.4 |
| 2008-01 | 114.7 |
| 2008-02 | 114.8 |
| 2008-03 | 113.1 |
| 2008-04 | 113.4 |
| 2008-05 | 108.7 |
| 2008-06 | 104.7 |
| 2008-07 | 105.8 |
| 2008-08 | 100.6 |
| 2008-09 | 99.3 |
| 2008-10 | 94.3 |
| 2008-11 | 86.7 |
| 2008-12 | 81.3 |
| 2009-01 | 78.5 |
| 2009-02 | 77.0 |
| 2009-03 | 70.8 |
| 2009-04 | 71.3 |
| 2009-05 | 70.4 |
| 2009-06 | 71.6 |
| 2009-07 | 75.8 |
| 2009-08 | 81.0 |
| 2009-09 | 80.2 |
| 2009-10 | 82.2 |
| 2009-11 | 84.5 |
| 2009-12 | 87.1 |
| 2010-01 | 88.7 |
| 2010-02 | 89.2 |
| 2010-03 | 92.1 |
| 2010-04 | 94.5 |
| 2010-05 | 96.5 |
| 2010-06 | 97.7 |
| 2010-07 | 98.1 |
| 2010-08 | 98.5 |
| 2010-09 | 100.2 |
| 2010-10 | 103.1 |
| 2010-11 | 104.2 |
| 2010-12 | 105.2 |
| 2011-01 | 103.3 |
| 2011-02 | 110.3 |
| 2011-03 | 109.1 |
| 2011-04 | 109.3 |
| 2011-05 | 111.1 |
| 2011-06 | 111.3 |
| 2011-07 | 109.5 |
| 2011-08 | 105.0 |
| 2011-09 | 103.2 |
| 2011-10 | 99.7 |
| 2011-11 | 99.9 |
| 2011-12 | 98.1 |
| 2012-01 | 96.7 |
| 2012-02 | 96.4 |
| 2012-03 | 98.0 |
| 2012-04 | 96.8 |
| 2012-05 | 93.9 |
| 2012-06 | 92.5 |
| 2012-07 | 90.9 |
| 2012-08 | 92.2 |
| 2012-09 | 90.0 |
| 2012-10 | 90.2 |
| 2012-11 | 88.6 |
| 2012-12 | 88.2 |
| 2013-01 | 91.0 |
| 2013-02 | 87.5 |
| 2013-03 | 86.6 |
| 2013-04 | 84.7 |
| 2013-05 | 84.4 |
| 2013-06 | 87.3 |
| 2013-07 | 88.5 |
| 2013-08 | 89.2 |
| 2013-09 | 90.7 |
| 2013-10 | 93.2 |
| 2013-11 | 91.8 |
| 2013-12 | 93.8 |
| 2014-01 | 94.1 |
| 2014-02 | 93.4 |
| 2014-03 | 94.4 |
| 2014-04 | 97.3 |
| 2014-05 | 96.1 |
| 2014-06 | 94.4 |
| 2014-07 | 94.8 |
| 2014-08 | 93.4 |
| 2014-09 | 93.6 |
| 2014-10 | 93.5 |
| 2014-11 | 93.3 |
| 2014-12 | 93.7 |
| 2015-01 | 92.7 |
| 2015-02 | 95.0 |
| 2015-03 | 94.3 |
| 2015-04 | 96.7 |
| 2015-05 | 96.8 |
| 2015-06 | 98.7 |
| 2015-07 | 99.3 |
| 2015-08 | 100.1 |
| 2015-09 | 99.8 |
| 2015-10 | 100.2 |
| 2015-11 | 101.3 |
| 2015-12 | 100.5 |
| 2016-01 | 101.7 |
| 2016-02 | 100.3 |
| 2016-03 | 99.1 |
| 2016-04 | 100.0 |
| 2016-05 | 101.9 |
| 2016-06 | 101.1 |
| 2016-07 | 104.2 |
| 2016-08 | 103.0 |
| 2016-09 | 104.7 |
| 2016-10 | 104.9 |
| 2016-11 | 105.0 |
| 2016-12 | 106.7 |
| 2017-01 | 105.4 |
| 2017-02 | 104.3 |
| 2017-03 | 107.6 |
| 2017-04 | 106.6 |
| 2017-05 | 107.2 |
| 2017-06 | 107.9 |
| 2017-07 | 107.3 |
| 2017-08 | 105.6 |
| 2017-09 | 106.9 |
| 2017-10 | 108.7 |
| 2017-11 | 108.4 |
| 2017-12 | 109.0 |
| 2018-01 | 109.4 |
| 2018-02 | 110.1 |
| 2018-03 | 110.0 |
| 2018-04 | 108.9 |
| 2018-05 | 109.1 |
| 2018-06 | 110.0 |
| 2018-07 | 108.4 |
| 2018-08 | 107.6 |
| 2018-09 | 107.3 |
| 2018-10 | 107.2 |
| 2018-11 | 105.2 |
| 2018-12 | 104.6 |
| 2019-01 | 105.0 |
| 2019-02 | 106.9 |
| 2019-03 | 107.3 |
| 2019-04 | 106.8 |
| 2019-05 | 104.5 |
| 2019-06 | 106.2 |
| 2019-07 | 106.1 |
| 2019-08 | 105.4 |
| 2019-09 | 105.9 |
| 2019-10 | 105.9 |
| 2019-11 | 106.8 |
| 2019-12 | 107.2 |
| 2020-01 | 104.7 |
| 2020-02 | 104.6 |
| 2020-03 | 96.2 |
graphiqueFrench employment climate composite indicator
- Source: INSEE.
Revisions
Compared to its first estimate in February 2020, the composite business climate indicator in building construction has been revised upward by one point.Conversely, the composite climate indicators in services and in manufacturing have been revised downward by one point. These revisions result mainly from the integration of late responses from companies. The other climate indicators are unchanged.
For further information
The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Next issue: 22 April 2020 at 08:45 am
Documentation
Abbreviated Methodology (pdf,130 Ko)
Pour en savoir plus
The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.
The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.
Next issue: 22 April 2020 at 08:45 am
