26 March 2020
N° 2020-79

In March 2020, both the French business climate and the employment climate have fallen steeplyBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - March 2020

In March 2020, the business climate has fallen strongly. At 95, the composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main market sectors, has lost ten points and has experienced its biggest drop since the start of the series (1980). The former biggest drop was in October 2008, with a fall of nine points.

Compared to February, the business climates has deteriorated very strongly in services (-14 points) and in retail trade (-13 points). The business climate in manufacturing has lost three points, while the one in building construction is stable at a high level. The business climate in wholesale trade, bimonthly, has lost five points compared to January.

Informations rapides
No 79
Paru le : Paru le 26/03/2020
Prochaine parution le : 22/04/2020 at 08:45 - April 2020
Informations rapides  No 79 - March 2020
Warning

Given the context of the fight against the spread of COVID-19, the statistics published in this issue of Informations Rapides may be less accurate than usual.

Companies’ responses were collected between 26 February and 23 March 2020. However, as of 14 March, only the responses received via the internet could be processed. In addition, many companies may have encountered difficulties in responding to the survey. Most responses were collected before 16 March 2020, the date from which schools have been closed.

The French business climate has fallen steeply and in an unprecedented way

In March 2020, the business climate has fallen strongly. At 95, the composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main market sectors, has lost ten points and has experienced its biggest drop since the start of the series (1980). The former biggest drop was in October 2008, with a fall of nine points.

Compared to February, the business climates has deteriorated very strongly in services (-14 points) and in retail trade (-13 points). The business climate in manufacturing has lost three points, while the one in building construction is stable at a high level. The business climate in wholesale trade, bimonthly, has lost five points compared to January.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.7
1998-02 110.0
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 111.0
1998-05 112.0
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.4
1998-08 111.6
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.0
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.3
1999-01 102.2
1999-02 102.2
1999-03 100.6
1999-04 101.4
1999-05 103.1
1999-06 102.5
1999-07 107.6
1999-08 110.5
1999-09 113.6
1999-10 115.8
1999-11 117.3
1999-12 118.6
2000-01 115.5
2000-02 116.0
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.6
2000-05 115.9
2000-06 117.5
2000-07 117.1
2000-08 117.8
2000-09 117.9
2000-10 116.5
2000-11 114.3
2000-12 113.7
2001-01 112.7
2001-02 112.6
2001-03 112.7
2001-04 107.4
2001-05 105.1
2001-06 104.1
2001-07 101.8
2001-08 100.4
2001-09 98.7
2001-10 93.8
2001-11 93.9
2001-12 94.5
2002-01 95.8
2002-02 96.4
2002-03 98.4
2002-04 101.7
2002-05 102.9
2002-06 101.9
2002-07 99.0
2002-08 98.3
2002-09 97.2
2002-10 95.4
2002-11 96.9
2002-12 99.5
2003-01 95.9
2003-02 95.0
2003-03 89.6
2003-04 87.2
2003-05 91.9
2003-06 92.0
2003-07 94.4
2003-08 95.3
2003-09 95.3
2003-10 96.3
2003-11 100.4
2003-12 101.7
2004-01 105.7
2004-02 104.8
2004-03 105.0
2004-04 105.9
2004-05 105.8
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.6
2004-08 106.7
2004-09 106.6
2004-10 107.6
2004-11 105.2
2004-12 106.5
2005-01 106.0
2005-02 106.2
2005-03 105.8
2005-04 105.0
2005-05 102.8
2005-06 103.9
2005-07 104.5
2005-08 104.4
2005-09 103.7
2005-10 106.6
2005-11 106.5
2005-12 107.8
2006-01 109.1
2006-02 107.2
2006-03 107.4
2006-04 108.1
2006-05 109.8
2006-06 109.2
2006-07 111.0
2006-08 111.3
2006-09 111.7
2006-10 111.6
2006-11 112.5
2006-12 110.9
2007-01 110.9
2007-02 112.6
2007-03 113.0
2007-04 113.8
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 115.3
2007-07 114.5
2007-08 113.3
2007-09 112.4
2007-10 111.7
2007-11 111.8
2007-12 111.4
2008-01 110.3
2008-02 108.8
2008-03 108.5
2008-04 105.7
2008-05 102.9
2008-06 100.0
2008-07 95.6
2008-08 94.2
2008-09 91.5
2008-10 82.5
2008-11 79.1
2008-12 75.3
2009-01 73.4
2009-02 71.0
2009-03 67.9
2009-04 68.8
2009-05 72.5
2009-06 75.4
2009-07 77.5
2009-08 81.4
2009-09 85.0
2009-10 87.6
2009-11 89.9
2009-12 90.5
2010-01 92.6
2010-02 93.1
2010-03 92.5
2010-04 96.8
2010-05 97.9
2010-06 97.6
2010-07 99.8
2010-08 102.1
2010-09 103.6
2010-10 104.7
2010-11 105.0
2010-12 106.7
2011-01 107.7
2011-02 108.5
2011-03 109.4
2011-04 109.2
2011-05 108.1
2011-06 108.4
2011-07 106.3
2011-08 101.0
2011-09 97.7
2011-10 96.3
2011-11 94.3
2011-12 92.9
2012-01 92.1
2012-02 91.9
2012-03 94.5
2012-04 95.1
2012-05 91.7
2012-06 90.5
2012-07 88.3
2012-08 87.8
2012-09 86.2
2012-10 84.1
2012-11 86.0
2012-12 86.7
2013-01 86.6
2013-02 86.5
2013-03 84.6
2013-04 83.0
2013-05 84.2
2013-06 85.3
2013-07 87.2
2013-08 90.5
2013-09 93.7
2013-10 93.4
2013-11 92.6
2013-12 92.5
2014-01 93.1
2014-02 93.0
2014-03 94.4
2014-04 94.2
2014-05 93.9
2014-06 92.7
2014-07 92.2
2014-08 90.9
2014-09 90.2
2014-10 90.3
2014-11 92.1
2014-12 92.3
2015-01 92.6
2015-02 93.4
2015-03 94.6
2015-04 95.7
2015-05 96.6
2015-06 97.5
2015-07 98.0
2015-08 99.5
2015-09 99.3
2015-10 100.3
2015-11 100.4
2015-12 98.9
2016-01 100.8
2016-02 99.9
2016-03 100.0
2016-04 99.9
2016-05 101.8
2016-06 100.1
2016-07 100.8
2016-08 100.4
2016-09 100.8
2016-10 101.1
2016-11 101.4
2016-12 103.8
2017-01 103.3
2017-02 103.9
2017-03 103.9
2017-04 104.1
2017-05 105.1
2017-06 106.7
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 108.6
2017-09 109.1
2017-10 109.0
2017-11 110.4
2017-12 111.4
2018-01 110.7
2018-02 109.7
2018-03 109.4
2018-04 108.5
2018-05 106.6
2018-06 106.5
2018-07 105.8
2018-08 105.2
2018-09 105.0
2018-10 103.9
2018-11 104.4
2018-12 101.5
2019-01 102.1
2019-02 103.1
2019-03 104.6
2019-04 105.3
2019-05 106.0
2019-06 106.2
2019-07 105.1
2019-08 105.3
2019-09 106.3
2019-10 105.4
2019-11 105.8
2019-12 105.1
2020-01 104.6
2020-02 105.0
2020-03 94.7

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Nov. 19 Dec. 19 Jan. 20 Feb. 20 Mar. 20
Business climates
France 106 105 105 105 95
Manufacturing 102 98 102 101 98
Building construction 111 111 111 112 112
Services 106 107 106 106 92
Retail trade 106 108 104 105 92
Wholesale trade 106 104 99
Employment climate
Employment 107 107 105 105 96
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate has also fallen in an unprecedented way

In March 2020, the employment climate has lost nine points, its biggest fall since the beginning of the series (1991). The former biggest decrease was in November 2008, with a decline of eight points. At 96, the employment climate has moved clearly below its long term average.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 101.9
1998-02 103.7
1998-03 105.6
1998-04 107.3
1998-05 107.9
1998-06 109.0
1998-07 110.3
1998-08 108.5
1998-09 106.7
1998-10 105.7
1998-11 105.3
1998-12 104.7
1999-01 103.9
1999-02 105.4
1999-03 106.8
1999-04 108.3
1999-05 108.5
1999-06 109.0
1999-07 109.8
1999-08 112.4
1999-09 115.0
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.2
1999-12 118.8
2000-01 119.3
2000-02 117.1
2000-03 115.0
2000-04 113.0
2000-05 116.9
2000-06 120.7
2000-07 117.5
2000-08 119.3
2000-09 120.3
2000-10 120.5
2000-11 122.7
2000-12 121.1
2001-01 119.0
2001-02 119.8
2001-03 118.7
2001-04 117.7
2001-05 113.4
2001-06 111.4
2001-07 107.4
2001-08 108.0
2001-09 107.8
2001-10 108.8
2001-11 102.8
2001-12 105.1
2002-01 102.7
2002-02 100.7
2002-03 102.4
2002-04 107.0
2002-05 104.3
2002-06 102.7
2002-07 103.7
2002-08 101.2
2002-09 98.0
2002-10 94.1
2002-11 97.7
2002-12 96.4
2003-01 97.5
2003-02 95.6
2003-03 91.7
2003-04 90.3
2003-05 89.4
2003-06 92.2
2003-07 93.2
2003-08 93.9
2003-09 94.1
2003-10 94.7
2003-11 93.8
2003-12 96.9
2004-01 98.5
2004-02 97.1
2004-03 100.8
2004-04 101.1
2004-05 104.1
2004-06 100.9
2004-07 101.8
2004-08 101.8
2004-09 101.4
2004-10 103.0
2004-11 103.2
2004-12 102.0
2005-01 102.2
2005-02 102.0
2005-03 104.9
2005-04 102.2
2005-05 102.9
2005-06 102.2
2005-07 102.8
2005-08 103.5
2005-09 103.9
2005-10 104.1
2005-11 103.7
2005-12 103.0
2006-01 104.1
2006-02 104.0
2006-03 104.6
2006-04 107.3
2006-05 108.6
2006-06 110.8
2006-07 110.4
2006-08 109.6
2006-09 108.4
2006-10 109.3
2006-11 111.0
2006-12 111.7
2007-01 109.7
2007-02 112.0
2007-03 111.7
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 114.2
2007-06 113.6
2007-07 111.8
2007-08 113.3
2007-09 114.2
2007-10 112.1
2007-11 113.7
2007-12 115.4
2008-01 114.7
2008-02 114.8
2008-03 113.1
2008-04 113.4
2008-05 108.7
2008-06 104.7
2008-07 105.8
2008-08 100.6
2008-09 99.3
2008-10 94.3
2008-11 86.7
2008-12 81.3
2009-01 78.5
2009-02 77.0
2009-03 70.8
2009-04 71.3
2009-05 70.4
2009-06 71.6
2009-07 75.8
2009-08 81.0
2009-09 80.2
2009-10 82.2
2009-11 84.5
2009-12 87.1
2010-01 88.7
2010-02 89.2
2010-03 92.1
2010-04 94.5
2010-05 96.5
2010-06 97.7
2010-07 98.1
2010-08 98.5
2010-09 100.2
2010-10 103.1
2010-11 104.2
2010-12 105.2
2011-01 103.3
2011-02 110.3
2011-03 109.1
2011-04 109.3
2011-05 111.1
2011-06 111.3
2011-07 109.5
2011-08 105.0
2011-09 103.2
2011-10 99.7
2011-11 99.9
2011-12 98.1
2012-01 96.7
2012-02 96.4
2012-03 98.0
2012-04 96.8
2012-05 93.9
2012-06 92.5
2012-07 90.9
2012-08 92.2
2012-09 90.0
2012-10 90.2
2012-11 88.6
2012-12 88.2
2013-01 91.0
2013-02 87.5
2013-03 86.6
2013-04 84.7
2013-05 84.4
2013-06 87.3
2013-07 88.5
2013-08 89.2
2013-09 90.7
2013-10 93.2
2013-11 91.8
2013-12 93.8
2014-01 94.1
2014-02 93.4
2014-03 94.4
2014-04 97.3
2014-05 96.1
2014-06 94.4
2014-07 94.8
2014-08 93.4
2014-09 93.6
2014-10 93.5
2014-11 93.3
2014-12 93.7
2015-01 92.7
2015-02 95.0
2015-03 94.3
2015-04 96.7
2015-05 96.8
2015-06 98.7
2015-07 99.3
2015-08 100.1
2015-09 99.8
2015-10 100.2
2015-11 101.3
2015-12 100.5
2016-01 101.7
2016-02 100.3
2016-03 99.1
2016-04 100.0
2016-05 101.9
2016-06 101.1
2016-07 104.2
2016-08 103.0
2016-09 104.7
2016-10 104.9
2016-11 105.0
2016-12 106.7
2017-01 105.4
2017-02 104.3
2017-03 107.6
2017-04 106.6
2017-05 107.2
2017-06 107.9
2017-07 107.3
2017-08 105.6
2017-09 106.9
2017-10 108.7
2017-11 108.4
2017-12 109.0
2018-01 109.4
2018-02 110.1
2018-03 110.0
2018-04 108.9
2018-05 109.1
2018-06 110.0
2018-07 108.4
2018-08 107.6
2018-09 107.3
2018-10 107.2
2018-11 105.2
2018-12 104.6
2019-01 105.0
2019-02 106.9
2019-03 107.3
2019-04 106.8
2019-05 104.5
2019-06 106.2
2019-07 106.1
2019-08 105.4
2019-09 105.9
2019-10 105.9
2019-11 106.8
2019-12 107.2
2020-01 104.7
2020-02 104.6
2020-03 96.2

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Revisions

Compared to its first estimate in February 2020, the composite business climate indicator in building construction has been revised upward by one point.Conversely, the composite climate indicators in services and in manufacturing have been revised downward by one point. These revisions result mainly from the integration of late responses from companies. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 22 April 2020 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 22 April 2020 at 08:45 am


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