26 March 2020
2020- n° 80In March 2020, the business climate in wholesale trade has deteriorated sharply Bi-monthly survey of wholesaling - March 2020
According to the managers surveyed in March 2020, the business climate in wholesale trade has again markedly deteriorated. The composite indicator has lost four points and stands at 99, just below its long-term average (100). The balances of opinion related to future activity have plunged and have heavily driven down the business climate indicator.
Given the context of the fight against the spread of COVID-19, the statistics published in this issue of Informations Rapides may be less accurate than usual. Companies’ responses were collected between 26 February and 23 March 2020. However, as of 14 March, only the responses received via the internet could be processed. In addition, many companies may have encountered difficulties in responding to the survey. Most responses were collected before 16 March 2020, the date from which schools have been closed.
- The balance of opinion on general business outlook has experienced its steepest fall since the creation of the survey
- The balances of opinion regarding past activity with connections abroad have declined
- The balances related to workforce have significantly stepped back
- The balances of opinion on selling prices have strongly turned back
- For further information
According to the managers surveyed in March 2020, the business climate in wholesale trade has again markedly deteriorated. The composite indicator has lost four points and stands at 99, just below its long-term average (100). The balances of opinion related to future activity have plunged and have heavily driven down the business climate indicator.
tableauComposite indicator
| Composite indicator | |
|---|---|
| 1998-B1 | 110.6 |
| 1998-B2 | 114.5 |
| 1998-B3 | 114.4 |
| 1998-B4 | 112.7 |
| 1998-B5 | 106.8 |
| 1998-B6 | 104.2 |
| 1999-B1 | 104.2 |
| 1999-B2 | 98.0 |
| 1999-B3 | 101.3 |
| 1999-B4 | 100.4 |
| 1999-B5 | 109.0 |
| 1999-B6 | 113.3 |
| 2000-B1 | 116.1 |
| 2000-B2 | 112.5 |
| 2000-B3 | 115.0 |
| 2000-B4 | 117.5 |
| 2000-B5 | 115.4 |
| 2000-B6 | 113.4 |
| 2001-B1 | 109.3 |
| 2001-B2 | 112.1 |
| 2001-B3 | 105.4 |
| 2001-B4 | 103.0 |
| 2001-B5 | 101.8 |
| 2001-B6 | 96.7 |
| 2002-B1 | 97.6 |
| 2002-B2 | 92.2 |
| 2002-B3 | 91.8 |
| 2002-B4 | 91.0 |
| 2002-B5 | 93.2 |
| 2002-B6 | 97.1 |
| 2003-B1 | 96.3 |
| 2003-B2 | 89.3 |
| 2003-B3 | 88.0 |
| 2003-B4 | 87.6 |
| 2003-B5 | 88.1 |
| 2003-B6 | 90.2 |
| 2004-B1 | 96.2 |
| 2004-B2 | 94.6 |
| 2004-B3 | 98.8 |
| 2004-B4 | 100.1 |
| 2004-B5 | 99.5 |
| 2004-B6 | 95.9 |
| 2005-B1 | 100.5 |
| 2005-B2 | 97.3 |
| 2005-B3 | 92.2 |
| 2005-B4 | 95.8 |
| 2005-B5 | 94.6 |
| 2005-B6 | 99.5 |
| 2006-B1 | 103.7 |
| 2006-B2 | 98.9 |
| 2006-B3 | 102.0 |
| 2006-B4 | 107.4 |
| 2006-B5 | 106.8 |
| 2006-B6 | 110.3 |
| 2007-B1 | 107.9 |
| 2007-B2 | 111.7 |
| 2007-B3 | 110.4 |
| 2007-B4 | 107.3 |
| 2007-B5 | 111.6 |
| 2007-B6 | 108.6 |
| 2008-B1 | 107.2 |
| 2008-B2 | 106.7 |
| 2008-B3 | 101.6 |
| 2008-B4 | 96.6 |
| 2008-B5 | 94.3 |
| 2008-B6 | 83.8 |
| 2009-B1 | 78.9 |
| 2009-B2 | 66.7 |
| 2009-B3 | 68.0 |
| 2009-B4 | 70.0 |
| 2009-B5 | 75.9 |
| 2009-B6 | 77.2 |
| 2010-B1 | 84.5 |
| 2010-B2 | 84.7 |
| 2010-B3 | 94.5 |
| 2010-B4 | 100.4 |
| 2010-B5 | 104.8 |
| 2010-B6 | 104.3 |
| 2011-B1 | 105.8 |
| 2011-B2 | 108.3 |
| 2011-B3 | 107.2 |
| 2011-B4 | 105.7 |
| 2011-B5 | 100.0 |
| 2011-B6 | 95.8 |
| 2012-B1 | 95.1 |
| 2012-B2 | 99.1 |
| 2012-B3 | 92.8 |
| 2012-B4 | 94.6 |
| 2012-B5 | 90.6 |
| 2012-B6 | 88.8 |
| 2013-B1 | 88.5 |
| 2013-B2 | 88.0 |
| 2013-B3 | 87.7 |
| 2013-B4 | 87.1 |
| 2013-B5 | 96.7 |
| 2013-B6 | 97.4 |
| 2014-B1 | 96.7 |
| 2014-B2 | 97.8 |
| 2014-B3 | 97.6 |
| 2014-B4 | 96.1 |
| 2014-B5 | 90.9 |
| 2014-B6 | 95.2 |
| 2015-B1 | 95.4 |
| 2015-B2 | 96.0 |
| 2015-B3 | 100.7 |
| 2015-B4 | 101.9 |
| 2015-B5 | 99.2 |
| 2015-B6 | 101.2 |
| 2016-B1 | 101.8 |
| 2016-B2 | 99.3 |
| 2016-B3 | 101.8 |
| 2016-B4 | 102.9 |
| 2016-B5 | 97.4 |
| 2016-B6 | 97.6 |
| 2017-B1 | 103.7 |
| 2017-B2 | 102.8 |
| 2017-B3 | 104.2 |
| 2017-B4 | 109.6 |
| 2017-B5 | 108.5 |
| 2017-B6 | 110.5 |
| 2018-B1 | 106.8 |
| 2018-B2 | 109.2 |
| 2018-B3 | 104.0 |
| 2018-B4 | 102.2 |
| 2018-B5 | 103.4 |
| 2018-B6 | 103.2 |
| 2019-B1 | 99.4 |
| 2019-B2 | 105.3 |
| 2019-B3 | 107.1 |
| 2019-B4 | 105.9 |
| 2019-B5 | 106.0 |
| 2019-B6 | 105.9 |
| 2020-B1 | 103.5 |
| 2020-B2 | 99.1 |
graphiqueComposite indicator
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
The balance of opinion on general business outlook has experienced its steepest fall since the creation of the survey
All balances of opinion related to forthcoming activity have plummeted. The balance on general business outlook in the wholesale trade has shed 33 points, thus reaching -45, which is the same level as in November 2011, yet higher than the values of 2009.
The balance related to total ordering intentions has stepped back sharply. It has receded in all sub-sectors, with a particularly strong fall in the wholesale trade of industrial capital goods and that of raw agricultural products.
The outlook for wholesale trade with foreign countries has turned gloomy: the balance related to the traders’ intention to order from abroad and the balance related to shipments to be made abroad have each lost ten points or more.
All these balances of opinion stand below their long-term average, except for the balance on total ordering intentions, still close to its average.
The balances of opinion regarding past activity with connections abroad have declined
In March 2020, the balance on past sales as a whole and the balance on the volume of received merchandise have been practically steady. However, the balances regarding past activity with connections abroad have declined: the one on past sales abroad has lost four points, the one on deliveries received from abroad two points. These four balances of opinion regarding past activity stand very close to their respective average.
The balances related to workforce have significantly stepped back
The balance of opinion on past employment has withdrawn to its average. The one related to expected workforce has withdrawn as well but remains much higher than its average.
The balances of opinion on selling prices have strongly turned back
In March, the balances of opinion regarding selling prices, past as well as expected, have strongly slipped back, after an improvement of a similar scale at the end of 2019. They now lie far below their long-term average.
However, almost as many wholesalers in March as in January have considered their cash flow situation to be favourable. The related balance stays above its average.
tableauWholesale trade sectors
| Ave* | Sep.-19 | Nov.-19 | Jan.-19 | March-20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite indicators | 100 | 106 | 106 | 103 | 99 |
| General business outlook | -22 | -3 | -4 | -12 | -45 |
| Sales | -14 | -9 | -8 | -13 | -13 |
| export sales | -15 | -9 | -7 | -12 | -16 |
| Received merchandise | -9 | -6 | -6 | -10 | -9 |
| received from abroad | -10 | -7 | -6 | -8 | -10 |
| Ordering intentions | -15 | -6 | -9 | -8 | -14 |
| ordering from abroad | -15 | -8 | -8 | -8 | -18 |
| Shipments abroad | -15 | -10 | -7 | -7 | -20 |
| Stocks | 8 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| Past workforce | -1 | -1 | 1 | 3 | -1 |
| Expected workforce | -2 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Cash position | -9 | -5 | -4 | -4 | -5 |
| Past selling prices | 7 | -6 | 1 | 4 | -5 |
| Expected selling prices | 14 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
- * : average since september 1979
- Source : INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade
tableauWholesale trade sectors
| Ave* | Sep.-19 | Nov.-19 | Jan.-19 | March-20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw agricultural products and live animals | |||||
| Sales | -13 | -14 | -21 | -24 | -19 |
| Export sales | -16 | -6 | 3 | -6 | -27 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -10 | -10 | -7 | -15 | -30 |
| Ordering intentions | -12 | -5 | -9 | -7 | -18 |
| Current stock | 5 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 6 |
| Food products and beverages | |||||
| Sales | -14 | -15 | -11 | -15 | -15 |
| Export sales | -12 | -5 | -13 | -9 | -8 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -13 | -17 | -12 | 2 | 5 |
| Ordering intentions | -11 | -4 | -9 | -6 | -12 |
| Current stocks | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| Household goods | |||||
| Sales | -10 | -9 | -2 | -5 | -13 |
| Export sales | -11 | -7 | -5 | -9 | -8 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -5 | 4 | 1 | -5 | -15 |
| Ordering intentions | -13 | -5 | -3 | -8 | -11 |
| Current stock | 12 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| Information and communication equipment | |||||
| Sales | -8 | 0 | -5 | -19 | -4 |
| Export sales | -13 | -9 | -6 | -11 | -23 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -7 | -2 | 2 | -18 | -8 |
| Ordering intentions | -10 | -2 | -13 | -3 | -10 |
| Current stock | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -1 |
| Other industrial capital goods | |||||
| Sales | -16 | 1 | -5 | -10 | -13 |
| Export sales | -21 | -11 | -9 | -11 | -11 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -11 | -6 | -6 | -4 | -4 |
| Ordering intentions | -21 | -6 | -11 | -7 | -17 |
| Current stock | 12 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 11 |
| Other specialised wholesale trade | |||||
| Sales | -17 | -9 | -5 | -14 | -13 |
| Export sales | -19 | -14 | -9 | -25 | -28 |
| Merchandise received from abroad | -12 | -8 | -9 | -18 | -16 |
| Ordering intentions | -18 | -12 | -13 | -13 | -15 |
| Current stock | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 0 |
- * : average since september 1979
- Source : INSEE – business tendency survey in wholesale trade
tableauPast activity (sales) in capital goods
| Capital goods in information and communication | Other industrial capital goods | |
|---|---|---|
| 2008-B1 | -23.7 | 5.2 |
| 2008-B2 | -5.5 | 4.4 |
| 2008-B3 | 2.8 | -3.5 |
| 2008-B4 | -7.0 | -14.3 |
| 2008-B5 | -10.8 | -20.7 |
| 2008-B6 | -15.4 | -35.4 |
| 2009-B1 | -32.7 | -57.0 |
| 2009-B2 | -60.4 | -74.2 |
| 2009-B3 | -63.9 | -67.8 |
| 2009-B4 | -63.0 | -70.0 |
| 2009-B5 | -56.5 | -70.0 |
| 2009-B6 | -20.5 | -68.2 |
| 2010-B1 | -13.5 | -56.7 |
| 2010-B2 | -36.0 | -57.5 |
| 2010-B3 | -0.5 | -40.3 |
| 2010-B4 | 29.5 | -32.9 |
| 2010-B5 | 19.8 | -16.0 |
| 2010-B6 | 19.9 | -18.1 |
| 2011-B1 | 14.6 | -17.4 |
| 2011-B2 | -11.2 | 1.8 |
| 2011-B3 | 0.4 | 6.7 |
| 2011-B4 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| 2011-B5 | -6.6 | 0.1 |
| 2011-B6 | -27.6 | -12.8 |
| 2012-B1 | -12.2 | -12.2 |
| 2012-B2 | -15.9 | -15.4 |
| 2012-B3 | -24.1 | -28.8 |
| 2012-B4 | -22.6 | -30.0 |
| 2012-B5 | -16.2 | -28.0 |
| 2012-B6 | -29.9 | -36.8 |
| 2013-B1 | -37.1 | -41.7 |
| 2013-B2 | -12.4 | -33.6 |
| 2013-B3 | -18.5 | -37.8 |
| 2013-B4 | -39.0 | -38.3 |
| 2013-B5 | -16.7 | -30.6 |
| 2013-B6 | -11.6 | -25.7 |
| 2014-B1 | -28.3 | -28.0 |
| 2014-B2 | -14.4 | -19.9 |
| 2014-B3 | -15.1 | -27.2 |
| 2014-B4 | -9.7 | -38.8 |
| 2014-B5 | -24.0 | -40.9 |
| 2014-B6 | -9.3 | -38.5 |
| 2015-B1 | -12.5 | -35.9 |
| 2015-B2 | -7.5 | -32.9 |
| 2015-B3 | 3.3 | -28.6 |
| 2015-B4 | -3.8 | -22.4 |
| 2015-B5 | -3.3 | -24.6 |
| 2015-B6 | -7.9 | -27.8 |
| 2016-B1 | 0.5 | -18.4 |
| 2016-B2 | 0.1 | -21.4 |
| 2016-B3 | -11.1 | -17.4 |
| 2016-B4 | -0.8 | -17.0 |
| 2016-B5 | -3.6 | -24.5 |
| 2016-B6 | -11.6 | -19.2 |
| 2017-B1 | -8.3 | -16.2 |
| 2017-B2 | -6.0 | -12.2 |
| 2017-B3 | -7.3 | -6.8 |
| 2017-B4 | -0.6 | 0.5 |
| 2017-B5 | -1.3 | -1.7 |
| 2017-B6 | -7.0 | 8.9 |
| 2018-B1 | -13.0 | 8.0 |
| 2018-B2 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| 2018-B3 | 0.9 | -5.0 |
| 2018-B4 | 7.5 | -7.8 |
| 2018-B5 | 13.4 | -6.7 |
| 2018-B6 | 5.8 | -9.4 |
| 2019-B1 | -21.4 | -16.3 |
| 2019-B2 | 20.0 | -3.2 |
| 2019-B3 | 10.4 | -1.0 |
| 2019-B4 | -20.8 | -4.2 |
| 2019-B5 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| 2019-B6 | -5.2 | -4.8 |
| 2020-B1 | -19.1 | -10.3 |
| 2020-B2 | -4.4 | -12.6 |
graphiquePast activity (sales) in capital goods
- Source: INSEE - business tendency survey in wholesale trade.
For further information
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 29 May 2020 at 8:45 am.
Pour en savoir plus
A balance of opinion is the difference between the weighted percentage of « above normal » or « increase » answers and the weighted percentage of « below normal » or « decrease » answers.
Additional information (methodology, links, etc.) is available on the “Documentation” tab.
Next issue: 29 May 2020 at 8:45 am.
Time series : Wholesale trade
