22 January 2020
N° 2020-13

In January 2020, the French business climate is virtually stable and the employment climate has deterioratedBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - January 2020

In January 2020, the business climate is virtually stable. At 104, the composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main market sectors, has dropped by one point but is still above its long-term mean (100).

Informations rapides
No 13
Paru le : Paru le 22/01/2020
Prochaine parution le : 25/02/2020 at 08:45 - February 2020
Informations rapides  No 13 - January 2020

The French business climate is virtually stable, above its long-term average

In January 2020, the business climate is virtually stable. At 104, the composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main market sectors, has dropped by one point but is still above its long-term mean (100).

Compared to the previous month, the business climate has lost four points in retail trade and, compared to November, two points in wholesale trade. Compared to December, it is stable in services and in building construction and it has gained two points in manufacturing. In all sectors, the business climate has reached its long-term average or stands above it.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.7
1998-02 110.0
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 111.0
1998-05 112.0
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.4
1998-08 111.6
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.0
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.3
1999-01 102.2
1999-02 102.2
1999-03 100.6
1999-04 101.4
1999-05 103.1
1999-06 102.5
1999-07 107.6
1999-08 110.5
1999-09 113.6
1999-10 115.8
1999-11 117.2
1999-12 118.6
2000-01 115.5
2000-02 116.0
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.6
2000-05 115.9
2000-06 117.5
2000-07 117.1
2000-08 117.7
2000-09 117.9
2000-10 116.5
2000-11 114.2
2000-12 113.7
2001-01 112.7
2001-02 112.6
2001-03 112.6
2001-04 107.4
2001-05 105.1
2001-06 104.1
2001-07 101.8
2001-08 100.4
2001-09 98.7
2001-10 93.8
2001-11 94.0
2001-12 94.5
2002-01 95.8
2002-02 96.4
2002-03 98.4
2002-04 101.7
2002-05 102.9
2002-06 101.9
2002-07 99.0
2002-08 98.3
2002-09 97.2
2002-10 95.5
2002-11 96.9
2002-12 99.5
2003-01 95.9
2003-02 95.0
2003-03 89.6
2003-04 87.3
2003-05 92.0
2003-06 92.0
2003-07 94.4
2003-08 95.3
2003-09 95.3
2003-10 96.3
2003-11 100.4
2003-12 101.7
2004-01 105.7
2004-02 104.8
2004-03 105.0
2004-04 105.9
2004-05 105.7
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.6
2004-08 106.7
2004-09 106.5
2004-10 107.6
2004-11 105.2
2004-12 106.5
2005-01 106.0
2005-02 106.2
2005-03 105.8
2005-04 105.0
2005-05 102.8
2005-06 103.9
2005-07 104.5
2005-08 104.4
2005-09 103.7
2005-10 106.6
2005-11 106.5
2005-12 107.8
2006-01 109.1
2006-02 107.2
2006-03 107.3
2006-04 108.1
2006-05 109.8
2006-06 109.2
2006-07 111.0
2006-08 111.2
2006-09 111.7
2006-10 111.6
2006-11 112.5
2006-12 110.9
2007-01 110.9
2007-02 112.5
2007-03 113.0
2007-04 113.7
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 115.2
2007-07 114.5
2007-08 113.2
2007-09 112.4
2007-10 111.7
2007-11 111.8
2007-12 111.4
2008-01 110.3
2008-02 108.8
2008-03 108.5
2008-04 105.7
2008-05 102.9
2008-06 100.0
2008-07 95.6
2008-08 94.2
2008-09 91.5
2008-10 82.5
2008-11 79.1
2008-12 75.3
2009-01 73.5
2009-02 71.0
2009-03 68.0
2009-04 68.9
2009-05 72.5
2009-06 75.4
2009-07 77.6
2009-08 81.4
2009-09 85.0
2009-10 87.6
2009-11 90.0
2009-12 90.6
2010-01 92.7
2010-02 93.1
2010-03 92.6
2010-04 96.8
2010-05 97.9
2010-06 97.6
2010-07 99.8
2010-08 102.1
2010-09 103.6
2010-10 104.7
2010-11 105.0
2010-12 106.7
2011-01 107.7
2011-02 108.5
2011-03 109.4
2011-04 109.2
2011-05 108.1
2011-06 108.4
2011-07 106.2
2011-08 101.0
2011-09 97.7
2011-10 96.3
2011-11 94.4
2011-12 92.9
2012-01 92.1
2012-02 91.9
2012-03 94.5
2012-04 95.1
2012-05 91.7
2012-06 90.5
2012-07 88.3
2012-08 87.8
2012-09 86.2
2012-10 84.1
2012-11 86.1
2012-12 86.7
2013-01 86.6
2013-02 86.6
2013-03 84.6
2013-04 83.0
2013-05 84.2
2013-06 85.3
2013-07 87.2
2013-08 90.5
2013-09 93.7
2013-10 93.4
2013-11 92.6
2013-12 92.5
2014-01 93.1
2014-02 93.0
2014-03 94.4
2014-04 94.2
2014-05 93.9
2014-06 92.8
2014-07 92.2
2014-08 90.9
2014-09 90.2
2014-10 90.3
2014-11 92.1
2014-12 92.3
2015-01 92.6
2015-02 93.4
2015-03 94.6
2015-04 95.7
2015-05 96.7
2015-06 97.5
2015-07 98.0
2015-08 99.5
2015-09 99.3
2015-10 100.3
2015-11 100.4
2015-12 98.9
2016-01 100.8
2016-02 99.9
2016-03 100.0
2016-04 99.9
2016-05 101.8
2016-06 100.1
2016-07 100.8
2016-08 100.4
2016-09 100.8
2016-10 101.1
2016-11 101.4
2016-12 103.7
2017-01 103.3
2017-02 103.9
2017-03 103.9
2017-04 104.1
2017-05 105.1
2017-06 106.7
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 108.5
2017-09 109.1
2017-10 109.0
2017-11 110.4
2017-12 111.4
2018-01 110.7
2018-02 109.7
2018-03 109.3
2018-04 108.5
2018-05 106.6
2018-06 106.5
2018-07 105.8
2018-08 105.1
2018-09 105.0
2018-10 103.8
2018-11 104.4
2018-12 101.5
2019-01 102.1
2019-02 103.1
2019-03 104.6
2019-04 105.3
2019-05 106.0
2019-06 106.2
2019-07 105.1
2019-08 105.3
2019-09 106.2
2019-10 105.4
2019-11 105.8
2019-12 105.0
2020-01 104.5

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Sep. 19 Oct. 19 Nov. 19 Dec. 19 Jan. 20
Business climates
France 106 105 106 105 104
Manufacturing 102 99 102 98 100
Building construction 112 112 111 111 111
Services 106 106 106 107 107
Retail trade 105 105 106 108 104
Wholesale trade 106 106 104
Employment climate
Employment 106 106 107 107 105
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate has deteriorated while staying at a fairly high level

In January 2020, the employment climate has deteriorated. The indicator that summarises it has lost two points and has returned to its August 2019 level. However, at 105, it remains clearly above its long-term average. This drop is mainly due to a deterioration in expected employment in services except temporary work agency activities.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 101.9
1998-02 103.7
1998-03 105.6
1998-04 107.3
1998-05 107.9
1998-06 109.0
1998-07 110.3
1998-08 108.5
1998-09 106.7
1998-10 105.6
1998-11 105.3
1998-12 104.7
1999-01 103.9
1999-02 105.4
1999-03 106.7
1999-04 108.3
1999-05 108.5
1999-06 109.0
1999-07 109.8
1999-08 112.3
1999-09 114.9
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.2
1999-12 118.8
2000-01 119.2
2000-02 117.1
2000-03 115.0
2000-04 113.0
2000-05 116.9
2000-06 120.7
2000-07 117.4
2000-08 119.3
2000-09 120.3
2000-10 120.5
2000-11 122.7
2000-12 121.0
2001-01 118.9
2001-02 119.8
2001-03 118.7
2001-04 117.6
2001-05 113.4
2001-06 111.4
2001-07 107.4
2001-08 108.0
2001-09 107.8
2001-10 108.8
2001-11 102.8
2001-12 105.2
2002-01 102.7
2002-02 100.7
2002-03 102.4
2002-04 107.0
2002-05 104.3
2002-06 102.7
2002-07 103.7
2002-08 101.2
2002-09 98.0
2002-10 94.1
2002-11 97.8
2002-12 96.5
2003-01 97.5
2003-02 95.7
2003-03 91.8
2003-04 90.3
2003-05 89.4
2003-06 92.2
2003-07 93.3
2003-08 94.0
2003-09 94.1
2003-10 94.8
2003-11 93.9
2003-12 96.9
2004-01 98.5
2004-02 97.1
2004-03 100.8
2004-04 101.1
2004-05 104.1
2004-06 100.9
2004-07 101.8
2004-08 101.8
2004-09 101.4
2004-10 103.0
2004-11 103.2
2004-12 102.0
2005-01 102.2
2005-02 102.0
2005-03 104.9
2005-04 102.2
2005-05 102.9
2005-06 102.2
2005-07 102.8
2005-08 103.5
2005-09 103.9
2005-10 104.1
2005-11 103.7
2005-12 103.0
2006-01 104.1
2006-02 104.0
2006-03 104.6
2006-04 107.3
2006-05 108.6
2006-06 110.8
2006-07 110.4
2006-08 109.6
2006-09 108.4
2006-10 109.3
2006-11 111.0
2006-12 111.7
2007-01 109.7
2007-02 111.9
2007-03 111.6
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 113.6
2007-07 111.8
2007-08 113.3
2007-09 114.2
2007-10 112.1
2007-11 113.7
2007-12 115.3
2008-01 114.6
2008-02 114.8
2008-03 113.0
2008-04 113.3
2008-05 108.7
2008-06 104.7
2008-07 105.8
2008-08 100.6
2008-09 99.3
2008-10 94.3
2008-11 86.7
2008-12 81.3
2009-01 78.5
2009-02 77.0
2009-03 70.8
2009-04 71.4
2009-05 70.4
2009-06 71.7
2009-07 75.9
2009-08 81.0
2009-09 80.2
2009-10 82.3
2009-11 84.6
2009-12 87.1
2010-01 88.7
2010-02 89.3
2010-03 92.1
2010-04 94.5
2010-05 96.5
2010-06 97.7
2010-07 98.1
2010-08 98.5
2010-09 100.1
2010-10 103.1
2010-11 104.2
2010-12 105.1
2011-01 103.3
2011-02 110.3
2011-03 109.1
2011-04 109.3
2011-05 111.1
2011-06 111.2
2011-07 109.5
2011-08 105.0
2011-09 103.2
2011-10 99.7
2011-11 99.9
2011-12 98.1
2012-01 96.7
2012-02 96.4
2012-03 98.0
2012-04 96.8
2012-05 93.9
2012-06 92.6
2012-07 90.9
2012-08 92.2
2012-09 90.0
2012-10 90.2
2012-11 88.6
2012-12 88.2
2013-01 91.0
2013-02 87.5
2013-03 86.6
2013-04 84.8
2013-05 84.4
2013-06 87.3
2013-07 88.5
2013-08 89.2
2013-09 90.8
2013-10 93.3
2013-11 91.8
2013-12 93.8
2014-01 94.1
2014-02 93.4
2014-03 94.4
2014-04 97.3
2014-05 96.1
2014-06 94.4
2014-07 94.8
2014-08 93.4
2014-09 93.6
2014-10 93.5
2014-11 93.3
2014-12 93.8
2015-01 92.7
2015-02 95.1
2015-03 94.3
2015-04 96.7
2015-05 96.8
2015-06 98.7
2015-07 99.3
2015-08 100.1
2015-09 99.8
2015-10 100.2
2015-11 101.3
2015-12 100.5
2016-01 101.7
2016-02 100.2
2016-03 99.1
2016-04 100.0
2016-05 101.9
2016-06 101.1
2016-07 104.2
2016-08 103.0
2016-09 104.7
2016-10 104.9
2016-11 105.0
2016-12 106.7
2017-01 105.3
2017-02 104.3
2017-03 107.4
2017-04 106.5
2017-05 107.2
2017-06 107.9
2017-07 107.3
2017-08 105.6
2017-09 106.9
2017-10 108.7
2017-11 108.4
2017-12 109.0
2018-01 109.4
2018-02 110.0
2018-03 109.7
2018-04 108.9
2018-05 109.1
2018-06 110.0
2018-07 108.4
2018-08 107.6
2018-09 107.3
2018-10 107.3
2018-11 105.2
2018-12 104.6
2019-01 105.1
2019-02 106.8
2019-03 107.0
2019-04 106.7
2019-05 104.5
2019-06 106.1
2019-07 106.1
2019-08 105.4
2019-09 105.9
2019-10 106.0
2019-11 106.8
2019-12 107.2
2020-01 105.2

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The turning-point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning-point indicator for the French economy remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Sept. 19 Oct. 19 Nov. 19 Dec. 19 Jan. 20
France 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9
Manufacturing 0.6 -0.1 0.6 0.3 0.7
Building construction 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9
Services 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.9
Wholesale trade 0.6 0.8 0.9
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.61
2010-02 0.53
2010-03 0.62
2010-04 0.83
2010-05 0.92
2010-06 0.81
2010-07 0.86
2010-08 0.99
2010-09 0.96
2010-10 0.98
2010-11 0.92
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.99
2011-02 0.99
2011-03 0.98
2011-04 0.89
2011-05 0.43
2011-06 0.65
2011-07 0.58
2011-08 -0.95
2011-09 -1.0
2011-10 -0.78
2011-11 -0.69
2011-12 -0.55
2012-01 -0.44
2012-02 -0.85
2012-03 0.64
2012-04 0.2
2012-05 -0.73
2012-06 -0.9
2012-07 -0.77
2012-08 -0.58
2012-09 -0.47
2012-10 -0.98
2012-11 -0.8
2012-12 -0.62
2013-01 -0.53
2013-02 -0.82
2013-03 -1.0
2013-04 -0.98
2013-05 -0.04
2013-06 0.41
2013-07 0.85
2013-08 0.99
2013-09 0.99
2013-10 0.81
2013-11 0.07
2013-12 0.38
2014-01 0.86
2014-02 0.75
2014-03 0.98
2014-04 0.63
2014-05 0.41
2014-06 0.29
2014-07 0.36
2014-08 0.33
2014-09 0.36
2014-10 -0.13
2014-11 0.14
2014-12 0.13
2015-01 0.01
2015-02 0.0
2015-03 0.4
2015-04 0.64
2015-05 0.67
2015-06 0.61
2015-07 0.74
2015-08 0.86
2015-09 0.71
2015-10 0.7
2015-11 0.64
2015-12 0.6
2016-01 0.88
2016-02 0.8
2016-03 0.71
2016-04 0.68
2016-05 0.73
2016-06 0.15
2016-07 0.39
2016-08 0.42
2016-09 0.86
2016-10 0.88
2016-11 0.79
2016-12 0.82
2017-01 0.73
2017-02 0.93
2017-03 0.4
2017-04 0.71
2017-05 0.63
2017-06 0.91
2017-07 0.88
2017-08 0.96
2017-09 0.94
2017-10 0.86
2017-11 0.83
2017-12 0.99
2018-01 0.92
2018-02 0.5
2018-03 0.66
2018-04 0.64
2018-05 0.6
2018-06 0.88
2018-07 0.75
2018-08 0.7
2018-09 0.73
2018-10 0.63
2018-11 0.76
2018-12 0.65
2019-01 0.87
2019-02 0.81
2019-03 0.93
2019-04 0.41
2019-05 0.97
2019-06 0.87
2019-07 0.8
2019-08 0.81
2019-09 0.89
2019-10 0.74
2019-11 0.83
2019-12 0.9
2020-01 0.89

Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

Revisions

Compared to their first estimates in December, the composite business climate indicator in manufacturing has been revised downwards by four points and that of French business climate has been revised downwards by one point. Conversely, the composite employment climate indicator has been revised upwards by one point. The business climate in wholesale trade in November 2019, bimonthly, has been revised upwards by one point. These revisions result mainly from the integration of late responses from companies. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 25 February 2020 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 25 February 2020 at 08:45 am


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