19 December 2019
N° 2019-334

In December 2019, the French business climate is stable and the employment climate has deteriorated slightlyBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - December 2019

In December 2019, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main market sectors, stands at 106, above its long-term mean (100).

Compared to the previous month, the business climate has gained two points in retail trade and one point in services. It is stable in manufacturing and in building construction. In all sectors, the business climate stands above its long-term average.

Informations rapides
No 334
Paru le : Paru le 19/12/2019
Prochaine parution le : 25/02/2020 at 08:45 - February 2020
Informations rapides  No 334 - December 2019

The French business climate is stable, above its long-term average

In December 2019, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main market sectors, stands at 106, above its long-term mean (100).

Compared to the previous month, the business climate has gained two points in retail trade and one point in services. It is stable in manufacturing and in building construction. In all sectors, the business climate stands above its long-term average.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.7
1998-02 110.0
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 110.9
1998-05 112.0
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.4
1998-08 111.6
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.0
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.3
1999-01 102.2
1999-02 102.2
1999-03 100.6
1999-04 101.4
1999-05 103.1
1999-06 102.6
1999-07 107.6
1999-08 110.5
1999-09 113.6
1999-10 115.8
1999-11 117.2
1999-12 118.6
2000-01 115.5
2000-02 116.0
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.6
2000-05 115.9
2000-06 117.5
2000-07 117.1
2000-08 117.7
2000-09 117.9
2000-10 116.5
2000-11 114.2
2000-12 113.7
2001-01 112.7
2001-02 112.6
2001-03 112.6
2001-04 107.4
2001-05 105.1
2001-06 104.1
2001-07 101.8
2001-08 100.5
2001-09 98.8
2001-10 93.9
2001-11 94.0
2001-12 94.6
2002-01 95.8
2002-02 96.4
2002-03 98.4
2002-04 101.7
2002-05 102.9
2002-06 101.9
2002-07 99.0
2002-08 98.3
2002-09 97.2
2002-10 95.5
2002-11 96.9
2002-12 99.5
2003-01 96.0
2003-02 95.0
2003-03 89.6
2003-04 87.3
2003-05 92.0
2003-06 92.1
2003-07 94.4
2003-08 95.3
2003-09 95.3
2003-10 96.3
2003-11 100.4
2003-12 101.8
2004-01 105.7
2004-02 104.8
2004-03 105.0
2004-04 105.9
2004-05 105.8
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.6
2004-08 106.7
2004-09 106.6
2004-10 107.6
2004-11 105.2
2004-12 106.5
2005-01 106.0
2005-02 106.2
2005-03 105.8
2005-04 105.0
2005-05 102.8
2005-06 103.9
2005-07 104.5
2005-08 104.4
2005-09 103.7
2005-10 106.6
2005-11 106.5
2005-12 107.8
2006-01 109.1
2006-02 107.2
2006-03 107.4
2006-04 108.1
2006-05 109.8
2006-06 109.2
2006-07 111.0
2006-08 111.2
2006-09 111.7
2006-10 111.6
2006-11 112.5
2006-12 110.9
2007-01 110.9
2007-02 112.6
2007-03 113.0
2007-04 113.7
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 115.2
2007-07 114.5
2007-08 113.3
2007-09 112.4
2007-10 111.7
2007-11 111.8
2007-12 111.4
2008-01 110.3
2008-02 108.8
2008-03 108.5
2008-04 105.7
2008-05 102.9
2008-06 100.0
2008-07 95.7
2008-08 94.2
2008-09 91.5
2008-10 82.6
2008-11 79.1
2008-12 75.4
2009-01 73.5
2009-02 71.1
2009-03 68.0
2009-04 68.9
2009-05 72.6
2009-06 75.5
2009-07 77.6
2009-08 81.5
2009-09 85.0
2009-10 87.6
2009-11 90.0
2009-12 90.6
2010-01 92.7
2010-02 93.2
2010-03 92.6
2010-04 96.9
2010-05 98.0
2010-06 97.6
2010-07 99.8
2010-08 102.1
2010-09 103.6
2010-10 104.7
2010-11 105.0
2010-12 106.7
2011-01 107.7
2011-02 108.5
2011-03 109.4
2011-04 109.2
2011-05 108.1
2011-06 108.4
2011-07 106.3
2011-08 101.0
2011-09 97.7
2011-10 96.3
2011-11 94.4
2011-12 93.0
2012-01 92.1
2012-02 92.0
2012-03 94.5
2012-04 95.2
2012-05 91.7
2012-06 90.6
2012-07 88.4
2012-08 87.8
2012-09 86.3
2012-10 84.2
2012-11 86.1
2012-12 86.7
2013-01 86.6
2013-02 86.6
2013-03 84.7
2013-04 83.1
2013-05 84.2
2013-06 85.3
2013-07 87.3
2013-08 90.5
2013-09 93.7
2013-10 93.4
2013-11 92.6
2013-12 92.5
2014-01 93.1
2014-02 93.0
2014-03 94.4
2014-04 94.2
2014-05 93.9
2014-06 92.8
2014-07 92.2
2014-08 90.9
2014-09 90.2
2014-10 90.3
2014-11 92.1
2014-12 92.3
2015-01 92.6
2015-02 93.4
2015-03 94.6
2015-04 95.7
2015-05 96.7
2015-06 97.5
2015-07 98.0
2015-08 99.6
2015-09 99.3
2015-10 100.3
2015-11 100.5
2015-12 98.9
2016-01 100.9
2016-02 99.9
2016-03 100.0
2016-04 100.0
2016-05 101.8
2016-06 100.1
2016-07 100.8
2016-08 100.4
2016-09 100.8
2016-10 101.1
2016-11 101.4
2016-12 103.8
2017-01 103.4
2017-02 103.9
2017-03 103.9
2017-04 104.1
2017-05 105.1
2017-06 106.7
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 108.5
2017-09 109.1
2017-10 109.0
2017-11 110.4
2017-12 111.4
2018-01 110.7
2018-02 109.7
2018-03 109.3
2018-04 108.5
2018-05 106.6
2018-06 106.5
2018-07 105.8
2018-08 105.2
2018-09 105.0
2018-10 103.9
2018-11 104.4
2018-12 101.5
2019-01 102.1
2019-02 103.1
2019-03 104.6
2019-04 105.3
2019-05 106.0
2019-06 106.2
2019-07 105.1
2019-08 105.3
2019-09 106.3
2019-10 105.4
2019-11 105.7
2019-12 105.8

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Aug. 19 Sept. 19 Oct. 19 Nov. 19 Dec. 19
Business climates
France 105 106 105 106 106
Manufacturing 103 102 99 102 102
Building construction 111 112 112 111 111
Services 105 106 106 106 107
Retail trade 100 105 105 106 108
Wholesale trade 106 105
Employment climate
Employment 105 106 106 107 106
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate has deteriorated slightly while staying at a fairly high level

In December 2019, the employment climate has deteriorated slightly. The indicator that summarises it has edged down by one point and has returned to its October level. At 106, it remains clearly above its long-term average. This drop is mainly due to a deterioration in expected employment in services except temporary work agency activities as well as in temporary work agencies.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 101.9
1998-02 103.7
1998-03 105.6
1998-04 107.3
1998-05 107.9
1998-06 109.0
1998-07 110.3
1998-08 108.5
1998-09 106.7
1998-10 105.7
1998-11 105.4
1998-12 104.7
1999-01 103.9
1999-02 105.4
1999-03 106.7
1999-04 108.2
1999-05 108.5
1999-06 109.0
1999-07 109.8
1999-08 112.3
1999-09 114.9
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.2
1999-12 118.7
2000-01 119.2
2000-02 117.1
2000-03 115.0
2000-04 113.0
2000-05 116.9
2000-06 120.7
2000-07 117.4
2000-08 119.2
2000-09 120.3
2000-10 120.5
2000-11 122.6
2000-12 121.0
2001-01 118.9
2001-02 119.8
2001-03 118.7
2001-04 117.6
2001-05 113.4
2001-06 111.4
2001-07 107.4
2001-08 107.9
2001-09 107.7
2001-10 108.8
2001-11 102.8
2001-12 105.1
2002-01 102.7
2002-02 100.7
2002-03 102.4
2002-04 107.0
2002-05 104.3
2002-06 102.7
2002-07 103.7
2002-08 101.2
2002-09 98.0
2002-10 94.2
2002-11 97.8
2002-12 96.5
2003-01 97.5
2003-02 95.7
2003-03 91.8
2003-04 90.3
2003-05 89.5
2003-06 92.2
2003-07 93.3
2003-08 94.0
2003-09 94.1
2003-10 94.8
2003-11 93.9
2003-12 96.9
2004-01 98.5
2004-02 97.2
2004-03 100.8
2004-04 101.1
2004-05 104.1
2004-06 100.9
2004-07 101.8
2004-08 101.8
2004-09 101.4
2004-10 103.0
2004-11 103.2
2004-12 102.0
2005-01 102.2
2005-02 102.0
2005-03 104.9
2005-04 102.2
2005-05 102.9
2005-06 102.2
2005-07 102.7
2005-08 103.4
2005-09 103.8
2005-10 104.1
2005-11 103.8
2005-12 103.0
2006-01 104.1
2006-02 104.0
2006-03 104.6
2006-04 107.3
2006-05 108.5
2006-06 110.7
2006-07 110.3
2006-08 109.5
2006-09 108.3
2006-10 109.3
2006-11 111.1
2006-12 111.8
2007-01 109.8
2007-02 112.0
2007-03 111.6
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 113.6
2007-07 111.7
2007-08 113.2
2007-09 114.0
2007-10 112.1
2007-11 113.8
2007-12 115.5
2008-01 114.7
2008-02 114.8
2008-03 113.0
2008-04 113.3
2008-05 108.6
2008-06 104.7
2008-07 105.7
2008-08 100.5
2008-09 99.2
2008-10 94.4
2008-11 86.9
2008-12 81.5
2009-01 78.7
2009-02 77.1
2009-03 70.8
2009-04 71.4
2009-05 70.4
2009-06 71.7
2009-07 75.8
2009-08 81.0
2009-09 80.1
2009-10 82.3
2009-11 84.8
2009-12 87.3
2010-01 88.8
2010-02 89.3
2010-03 92.1
2010-04 94.6
2010-05 96.5
2010-06 97.7
2010-07 98.1
2010-08 98.5
2010-09 100.1
2010-10 103.2
2010-11 104.3
2010-12 105.3
2011-01 103.4
2011-02 110.3
2011-03 109.1
2011-04 109.3
2011-05 111.1
2011-06 111.2
2011-07 109.5
2011-08 105.0
2011-09 103.1
2011-10 99.8
2011-11 100.0
2011-12 98.2
2012-01 96.7
2012-02 96.4
2012-03 98.0
2012-04 96.8
2012-05 93.9
2012-06 92.6
2012-07 91.0
2012-08 92.2
2012-09 90.0
2012-10 90.3
2012-11 88.7
2012-12 88.3
2013-01 91.1
2013-02 87.6
2013-03 86.6
2013-04 84.8
2013-05 84.5
2013-06 87.4
2013-07 88.6
2013-08 89.3
2013-09 90.8
2013-10 93.3
2013-11 91.8
2013-12 93.9
2014-01 94.2
2014-02 93.5
2014-03 94.4
2014-04 97.3
2014-05 96.1
2014-06 94.4
2014-07 94.8
2014-08 93.4
2014-09 93.6
2014-10 93.6
2014-11 93.4
2014-12 93.8
2015-01 92.8
2015-02 95.1
2015-03 94.3
2015-04 96.7
2015-05 96.8
2015-06 98.7
2015-07 99.3
2015-08 100.2
2015-09 99.8
2015-10 100.3
2015-11 101.3
2015-12 100.5
2016-01 101.7
2016-02 100.3
2016-03 99.1
2016-04 100.1
2016-05 102.0
2016-06 101.2
2016-07 104.2
2016-08 103.1
2016-09 104.7
2016-10 104.9
2016-11 105.0
2016-12 106.8
2017-01 105.4
2017-02 104.3
2017-03 107.4
2017-04 106.6
2017-05 107.2
2017-06 107.9
2017-07 107.3
2017-08 105.7
2017-09 106.9
2017-10 108.7
2017-11 108.5
2017-12 109.0
2018-01 109.4
2018-02 110.1
2018-03 109.7
2018-04 108.9
2018-05 109.1
2018-06 110.1
2018-07 108.4
2018-08 107.6
2018-09 107.3
2018-10 107.2
2018-11 105.4
2018-12 104.6
2019-01 105.1
2019-02 106.9
2019-03 106.9
2019-04 106.7
2019-05 104.6
2019-06 106.2
2019-07 106.1
2019-08 105.4
2019-09 105.9
2019-10 105.9
2019-11 107.0
2019-12 106.4

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The turning-point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning-point indicator for the French economy remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Aug. 19 Sept. 19 Oct. 19 Nov. 19 Dec. 19
France 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8
Manufacturing 0.7 0.6 -0.1 0.6 0.4
Building construction 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.1
Services 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 1,0
Wholesale trade - 0.6 - 0.6 -
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.61
2010-02 0.53
2010-03 0.62
2010-04 0.83
2010-05 0.92
2010-06 0.81
2010-07 0.86
2010-08 0.99
2010-09 0.96
2010-10 0.98
2010-11 0.92
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.99
2011-02 0.99
2011-03 0.98
2011-04 0.89
2011-05 0.43
2011-06 0.65
2011-07 0.58
2011-08 -0.95
2011-09 -1.0
2011-10 -0.78
2011-11 -0.69
2011-12 -0.55
2012-01 -0.44
2012-02 -0.85
2012-03 0.64
2012-04 0.2
2012-05 -0.73
2012-06 -0.9
2012-07 -0.77
2012-08 -0.58
2012-09 -0.47
2012-10 -0.98
2012-11 -0.8
2012-12 -0.62
2013-01 -0.53
2013-02 -0.82
2013-03 -1.0
2013-04 -0.98
2013-05 -0.04
2013-06 0.41
2013-07 0.85
2013-08 0.99
2013-09 0.99
2013-10 0.81
2013-11 0.07
2013-12 0.38
2014-01 0.86
2014-02 0.75
2014-03 0.98
2014-04 0.63
2014-05 0.41
2014-06 0.29
2014-07 0.36
2014-08 0.33
2014-09 0.36
2014-10 -0.13
2014-11 0.14
2014-12 0.13
2015-01 0.01
2015-02 0.0
2015-03 0.4
2015-04 0.64
2015-05 0.67
2015-06 0.61
2015-07 0.74
2015-08 0.86
2015-09 0.71
2015-10 0.7
2015-11 0.64
2015-12 0.6
2016-01 0.88
2016-02 0.8
2016-03 0.71
2016-04 0.68
2016-05 0.73
2016-06 0.15
2016-07 0.38
2016-08 0.41
2016-09 0.86
2016-10 0.88
2016-11 0.79
2016-12 0.81
2017-01 0.73
2017-02 0.93
2017-03 0.4
2017-04 0.71
2017-05 0.63
2017-06 0.91
2017-07 0.88
2017-08 0.96
2017-09 0.94
2017-10 0.86
2017-11 0.83
2017-12 0.99
2018-01 0.92
2018-02 0.5
2018-03 0.66
2018-04 0.64
2018-05 0.6
2018-06 0.88
2018-07 0.75
2018-08 0.7
2018-09 0.73
2018-10 0.63
2018-11 0.76
2018-12 0.65
2019-01 0.87
2019-02 0.81
2019-03 0.93
2019-04 0.41
2019-05 0.97
2019-06 0.87
2019-07 0.8
2019-08 0.81
2019-09 0.89
2019-10 0.74
2019-11 0.83
2019-12 0.8

Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

Revisions

Compared to their first estimates in the previous month, the composite business climate indicator in manufacturing in November 2019 has been revised upwards by two points and that of French business climate has been revised upwards by one point. Both the composite business climate indicator in retail trade and the employment climate have been revised downwards by one point. These revisions result mainly from the integration of late responses from companies, phenomenon accentuated this month by the unavailability of the platform for collecting business surveys for a few days in November. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 22 January 2020 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 22 January 2020 at 08:45 am


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