29 août 2019
N° 2019-221

In Q2 2019, GDP grew by +0.3%; households’ purchasing power decreased after significant increases and non-financial corporations’ profit margin grew againQuarterly national accounts - detailed figures - second quarter 2019

In Q2 2019, GDP in volume terms grew at the same pace as in the previous quarter: +0.3% (revised by +0.1% from the first estimate).

Household consumption expenditures decelerated slightly (+0.2% after +0.3%), while total gross fixed capital formation accelerated (GFCF: +0.9% after +0.5%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed 0.4 points to GDP growth, after 0.3 points in the previous quarter.

Informations rapides
No 221
Paru le : Paru le 29/08/2019
Prochaine parution le : 29/11/2019 at 08:45 - third quarter 2019
Informations rapides  No 221 - août 2019

In Q2 2019, GDP in volume terms grew at the same pace as in the previous quarter: +0.3% (revised by +0.1% from the first estimate).

Household consumption expenditures decelerated slightly (+0.2% after +0.3%), while total gross fixed capital formation accelerated (GFCF: +0.9% after +0.5%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes contributed 0.4 points to GDP growth, after 0.3 points in the previous quarter.

Imports curbed slightly (−0.2 after +1.1%) following the decline of oil purchases while exports remained stable (+0.0% after +0.1%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth: +0.1 points, after −0.3 points in the previous quarter. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.2 points after +0.3 points).

GDP and its main components

GDP and its main components ()
Consumption GFCF Inventory changes Net foreign trade GDP
2016-Q1 0.67 0.21 -0.35 0.09 0.6
2016-Q2 0.17 -0.03 -0.64 0.22 -0.3
2016-Q3 0.1 0.1 0.39 -0.36 0.2
2016-Q4 0.6 0.21 -0.43 0.21 0.6
2017-Q1 0.19 0.53 0.79 -0.7 0.8
2017-Q2 0.27 0.22 -0.54 0.76 0.7
2017-Q3 0.45 0.28 0.09 -0.14 0.7
2017-Q4 0.14 0.19 -0.04 0.44 0.7
2018-Q1 0.12 -0.01 0.01 0.09 0.2
2018-Q2 -0.09 0.19 0.17 -0.05 0.2
2018-Q3 0.25 0.23 -0.45 0.27 0.3
2018-Q4 0.31 0.14 -0.24 0.23 0.4
2019-Q1 0.18 0.11 0.31 -0.3 0.3
2019-Q2 0.2 0.21 -0.15 0.06 0.3

GDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE.

GDP and its main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2018 2019 (ovhg)
GDP 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.7 1.1
Imports -0.2 1.0 1.1 -0.2 1.2 1.8
Household consumption expenditure 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.9
General government’s consumption expenditure 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.7
GFCF 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.9 2.8 2.4
Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.9 3.9 2.9
Households 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.8
General government 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.0 2.4 3.1
Exports 0.6 1.8 0.1 0.0 3.5 1.9
Contributions:
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.3 1.2
Inventory changes -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1
Net foreign trade 0.3 0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.7 0.0
  • This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
  • Source: Insee

Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2018 2019 (ovhg)
Production of branches 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 2.0 1.5
Goods 0.5 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.6 0.7
Manufactured industry 0.5 0.2 0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.5
Construction 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 1.8 1.8
Market services 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 3.1 2.0
Non-market services 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.9
Household consumption 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.9
Food products 0.3 0.0 -1.1 -0.2 -1.4 -1.6
Energy 0.2 -0.4 0.9 0.9 -1.0 0.4
Engineered goods -0.3 -0.2 0.6 -0.5 0.7 0.2
Services 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.9 1.6
GFCF 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.9 2.8 2.4
Manufactured goods 1.4 -0.3 1.6 0.9 2.1 3.1
Construction 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.5 1.7
Market services 1.7 1.3 -0.3 1.1 4.9 2.7
  • Source: Insee

The purchasing power of households’ gross disposable income decreased slightly in Q2 2019

Households’ gross disposable income (GDI) decelerated in Q2 (+0.3% after +1.0%). Wages received by households decelerated (+0.2% after +1.3%) in the aftermath of the special bonuses paid by some companies in Q1. Social benefits in cash also slowed down (+0.3% after +1.0%) after the implementation of measures on the employment bonus in Q1. Social contributions paid by households started growing again (+0.4% after −0.3%) after the enactment of the exoneration of the contributions paid by employees on over-time. Taxes on income and wealth decelerated markedly in Q2 (+0.4% after +2.0%), the rebound in Q1 being linked to the decrease of the housing tax in late 2018.

Households’ consumption prices accelerated slightly (+0.4% after +0.2%) and the purchasing power of households’ GDI declined a little, after the previous quarter’s significant rise (−0.2% after +0.8%). When measured by consumption unit to bring it to an individual level, it also decreased but remained at a high level (−0.3% after +0.7%)

In Q2 2019, households’ consumption in volume terms increased (+0.2% after +0.3%) while their purchasing power decreased. As a consequence, households’ savings rate decreased: it stands at 14.9% after 15.3% in Q1 2019.

Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2018 2019 (ovhg)
HDI 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.3 2.7 2.9
HDI (purchasing power) 0.3 1.1 0.8 -0.2 1.2 1.9
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.2 1.0 0.7 -0.3 0.7 1.5
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.2 1.7
Saving rate (level) 14.2 14.8 15.3 14.9 14.2
Financial saving rate (level) 4.0 4.8 5.3 4.8 4.0
  • * cu: consumption unit
  • Source: Insee

Non-financial corporations’ profit ratio increased in Q2

In Q2 2019, non-financial corporations’ profit ratio kept growing to stand at 33.1% (after 32.6%). In Q1 the rise was due to the accumulation of the CICE payment for 2018 and to its transformation into a contribution exoneration in 2019, but it was moderated by the rise of wages which were momentarily energised by special bonuses. In Q2, wages rose less rapidly and the profit margin kept growing.

Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account (level (in percent), WDA-SA data)
2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2018
Profit share 31.1 31.5 32.6 33.1 31.2
Investment ratio 24.4 24.4 24.2 24.4 24.1
Savings ratio 23.1 22.3 24.0 24.6 22.6
Self-financing ratio 94.9 91.5 99.2 100.9 93.7
  • Source: Insee

In Q2, the general government deficit was slightly reduced

In Q2 2019, general government’s net borrowing decreased by 0.1 points: the deficit stood at 3.4% of the GDP after 3.5%. Revenues rebounded (+0.5% after −1.5%). Social contributions recovered after the decrease in employer contributions in the previous quarter. Taxes on income and wealth grew, while corporate tax decreased less than in the previous quarter. The slight deceleration of expenditures (+0.3% after +0.4%) is mostly due to social benefits which were dynamic in the previous quarter (with the revaluation of the employment bonus).

Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations (level, WDA-SA data)
2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2018
In billions of euros
Total expenditure 329.6 332.0 333.3 334.4 1318.8
Total receipts 313.0 317.0 312.3 314.0 1259.1
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -16.6 -15.1 -20.9 -20.3 -59.6
In % of GDP
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -2.8 -2.5 -3.5 -3.4 -2.5
  • Source: Insee

Revisions

The GDP growth estimate for Q2 2019 is revised upwards by 0.1 points to stand at +0.3%. This revision is due to the integration and revision of indicators, notably for the month of June, and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Encadré

To go further

Next publication: October 30, 2019 at 07:30 a.m.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)


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