27 août 2019
N° 2019-219

In August 2019, the French business climate is stable and the employment climate has slipped backBusiness climate indicator and turning point indicator - August 2019

In August 2019, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 105, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator has gained one point in manufacturing industry but has lost four points in retail trade. It is stable in services and in building construction. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

Informations rapides
No 219
Paru le : Paru le 27/08/2019
Prochaine parution le : 24/09/2019 at 08:45 - September 2019
Informations rapides  No 219 - août 2019

The French business climate is stable, above its long-term mean

In August 2019, the business climate is stable. The composite indicator, compiled from the answers of business managers in the main sectors, stands at 105, above its long-term mean (100). Compared to the previous survey, the business climate indicator has gained one point in manufacturing industry but has lost four points in retail trade. It is stable in services and in building construction. The business climate is above its long-term mean in all those sectors.

French business climate composite indicator

French business climate composite indicator
French business climate composite indicator
1998-01 108.7
1998-02 110.0
1998-03 112.9
1998-04 111.0
1998-05 112.0
1998-06 113.2
1998-07 112.4
1998-08 111.6
1998-09 109.5
1998-10 107.0
1998-11 105.1
1998-12 102.4
1999-01 102.3
1999-02 102.3
1999-03 100.6
1999-04 101.5
1999-05 103.2
1999-06 102.6
1999-07 107.6
1999-08 110.5
1999-09 113.6
1999-10 115.8
1999-11 117.2
1999-12 118.6
2000-01 115.5
2000-02 116.0
2000-03 116.8
2000-04 116.6
2000-05 115.9
2000-06 117.5
2000-07 117.1
2000-08 117.8
2000-09 117.9
2000-10 116.5
2000-11 114.3
2000-12 113.7
2001-01 112.7
2001-02 112.6
2001-03 112.7
2001-04 107.4
2001-05 105.1
2001-06 104.2
2001-07 101.9
2001-08 100.5
2001-09 98.8
2001-10 93.9
2001-11 94.1
2001-12 94.6
2002-01 95.9
2002-02 96.5
2002-03 98.5
2002-04 101.7
2002-05 103.0
2002-06 102.0
2002-07 99.1
2002-08 98.4
2002-09 97.3
2002-10 95.6
2002-11 97.0
2002-12 99.6
2003-01 96.0
2003-02 95.1
2003-03 89.7
2003-04 87.4
2003-05 92.1
2003-06 92.1
2003-07 94.5
2003-08 95.4
2003-09 95.4
2003-10 96.4
2003-11 100.5
2003-12 101.8
2004-01 105.8
2004-02 104.9
2004-03 105.0
2004-04 105.9
2004-05 105.8
2004-06 105.2
2004-07 106.6
2004-08 106.8
2004-09 106.6
2004-10 107.7
2004-11 105.3
2004-12 106.5
2005-01 106.1
2005-02 106.2
2005-03 105.8
2005-04 105.1
2005-05 102.8
2005-06 104.0
2005-07 104.6
2005-08 104.4
2005-09 103.7
2005-10 106.6
2005-11 106.6
2005-12 107.9
2006-01 109.2
2006-02 107.3
2006-03 107.4
2006-04 108.2
2006-05 109.8
2006-06 109.3
2006-07 111.0
2006-08 111.3
2006-09 111.7
2006-10 111.6
2006-11 112.5
2006-12 111.0
2007-01 110.9
2007-02 112.6
2007-03 113.1
2007-04 113.8
2007-05 114.2
2007-06 115.3
2007-07 114.6
2007-08 113.3
2007-09 112.5
2007-10 111.7
2007-11 111.9
2007-12 111.5
2008-01 110.3
2008-02 108.9
2008-03 108.6
2008-04 105.8
2008-05 103.0
2008-06 100.0
2008-07 95.7
2008-08 94.3
2008-09 91.6
2008-10 82.7
2008-11 79.2
2008-12 75.5
2009-01 73.6
2009-02 71.2
2009-03 68.2
2009-04 69.1
2009-05 72.7
2009-06 75.6
2009-07 77.7
2009-08 81.6
2009-09 85.1
2009-10 87.8
2009-11 90.1
2009-12 90.7
2010-01 92.8
2010-02 93.3
2010-03 92.7
2010-04 96.9
2010-05 98.0
2010-06 97.7
2010-07 99.9
2010-08 102.2
2010-09 103.7
2010-10 104.7
2010-11 105.0
2010-12 106.8
2011-01 107.8
2011-02 108.5
2011-03 109.5
2011-04 109.3
2011-05 108.2
2011-06 108.5
2011-07 106.3
2011-08 101.0
2011-09 97.8
2011-10 96.4
2011-11 94.4
2011-12 93.0
2012-01 92.2
2012-02 92.1
2012-03 94.6
2012-04 95.2
2012-05 91.8
2012-06 90.7
2012-07 88.5
2012-08 87.9
2012-09 86.4
2012-10 84.3
2012-11 86.2
2012-12 86.9
2013-01 86.7
2013-02 86.7
2013-03 84.8
2013-04 83.2
2013-05 84.3
2013-06 85.5
2013-07 87.4
2013-08 90.6
2013-09 93.8
2013-10 93.5
2013-11 92.7
2013-12 92.6
2014-01 93.2
2014-02 93.1
2014-03 94.5
2014-04 94.3
2014-05 94.0
2014-06 92.9
2014-07 92.3
2014-08 91.0
2014-09 90.3
2014-10 90.4
2014-11 92.2
2014-12 92.4
2015-01 92.7
2015-02 93.5
2015-03 94.7
2015-04 95.8
2015-05 96.8
2015-06 97.6
2015-07 98.1
2015-08 99.6
2015-09 99.4
2015-10 100.4
2015-11 100.5
2015-12 99.0
2016-01 100.9
2016-02 100.0
2016-03 100.1
2016-04 100.0
2016-05 101.9
2016-06 100.2
2016-07 100.9
2016-08 100.5
2016-09 100.9
2016-10 101.2
2016-11 101.5
2016-12 103.8
2017-01 103.4
2017-02 104.0
2017-03 104.0
2017-04 104.2
2017-05 105.1
2017-06 106.7
2017-07 107.5
2017-08 108.6
2017-09 109.1
2017-10 109.0
2017-11 110.4
2017-12 111.5
2018-01 110.7
2018-02 109.7
2018-03 109.4
2018-04 108.5
2018-05 106.7
2018-06 106.5
2018-07 105.8
2018-08 105.2
2018-09 105.1
2018-10 103.9
2018-11 104.5
2018-12 101.6
2019-01 102.1
2019-02 103.1
2019-03 104.7
2019-04 105.4
2019-05 106.1
2019-06 106.3
2019-07 105.1
2019-08 105.3

French business climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

Business and employment climates

Business and employment climates
Apr. 19 May 19 June 19 July 19 Aug. 19
Business climates
France 105 106 106 105 105
Manufacturing 102 104 102 101 102
Building construction 111 111 111 111 111
Services 106 106 107 105 105
Retail trade 106 104 104 105 101
Wholesale trade - 107 - 105 -
Employment climate
Employment 107 105 106 106 104
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

The employment climate is less favourable, though at a level which remains relatively high

In August 2019, the employment climate is less favourable after being stable in the previous month: the associated composite indicator has lost two points and stands at 104, at its lowest level since September 2016, nevertheless above its long-term average. This deterioration is mainly due to the strong decrease in the balance of opinion on past workforce size in retail trade.

French employment climate composite indicator

French employment climate composite indicator
French employment climate composite indicator
1998-01 102.0
1998-02 103.7
1998-03 105.7
1998-04 107.3
1998-05 108.0
1998-06 109.1
1998-07 110.4
1998-08 108.6
1998-09 106.7
1998-10 105.7
1998-11 105.4
1998-12 104.7
1999-01 104.0
1999-02 105.5
1999-03 106.8
1999-04 108.3
1999-05 108.5
1999-06 109.1
1999-07 109.8
1999-08 112.4
1999-09 115.0
1999-10 117.3
1999-11 118.2
1999-12 118.8
2000-01 119.2
2000-02 117.1
2000-03 115.0
2000-04 113.0
2000-05 116.9
2000-06 120.7
2000-07 117.4
2000-08 119.3
2000-09 120.3
2000-10 120.5
2000-11 122.7
2000-12 121.1
2001-01 118.9
2001-02 119.8
2001-03 118.7
2001-04 117.6
2001-05 113.4
2001-06 111.4
2001-07 107.5
2001-08 108.0
2001-09 107.8
2001-10 108.8
2001-11 102.9
2001-12 105.2
2002-01 102.7
2002-02 100.7
2002-03 102.5
2002-04 107.1
2002-05 104.3
2002-06 102.8
2002-07 103.7
2002-08 101.3
2002-09 98.1
2002-10 94.3
2002-11 97.9
2002-12 96.6
2003-01 97.6
2003-02 95.8
2003-03 91.9
2003-04 90.4
2003-05 89.6
2003-06 92.3
2003-07 93.4
2003-08 94.1
2003-09 94.2
2003-10 94.9
2003-11 94.0
2003-12 97.0
2004-01 98.6
2004-02 97.2
2004-03 100.9
2004-04 101.2
2004-05 104.2
2004-06 101.0
2004-07 101.9
2004-08 101.9
2004-09 101.5
2004-10 103.0
2004-11 103.3
2004-12 102.1
2005-01 102.3
2005-02 102.1
2005-03 105.0
2005-04 102.3
2005-05 102.9
2005-06 102.3
2005-07 102.8
2005-08 103.5
2005-09 103.9
2005-10 104.2
2005-11 103.8
2005-12 103.1
2006-01 104.2
2006-02 104.1
2006-03 104.7
2006-04 107.4
2006-05 108.6
2006-06 110.8
2006-07 110.4
2006-08 109.6
2006-09 108.3
2006-10 109.4
2006-11 111.2
2006-12 111.8
2007-01 109.8
2007-02 112.0
2007-03 111.6
2007-04 112.2
2007-05 114.1
2007-06 113.6
2007-07 111.7
2007-08 113.2
2007-09 114.1
2007-10 112.1
2007-11 113.8
2007-12 115.5
2008-01 114.7
2008-02 114.8
2008-03 113.0
2008-04 113.3
2008-05 108.6
2008-06 104.7
2008-07 105.7
2008-08 100.6
2008-09 99.3
2008-10 94.5
2008-11 87.0
2008-12 81.6
2009-01 78.8
2009-02 77.2
2009-03 71.0
2009-04 71.6
2009-05 70.6
2009-06 71.8
2009-07 76.0
2009-08 81.1
2009-09 80.3
2009-10 82.5
2009-11 84.9
2009-12 87.5
2010-01 89.0
2010-02 89.4
2010-03 92.2
2010-04 94.6
2010-05 96.6
2010-06 97.8
2010-07 98.1
2010-08 98.6
2010-09 100.2
2010-10 103.2
2010-11 104.4
2010-12 105.3
2011-01 103.5
2011-02 110.3
2011-03 109.2
2011-04 109.3
2011-05 111.1
2011-06 111.2
2011-07 109.5
2011-08 105.0
2011-09 103.2
2011-10 99.9
2011-11 100.1
2011-12 98.2
2012-01 96.8
2012-02 96.5
2012-03 98.1
2012-04 96.8
2012-05 94.0
2012-06 92.7
2012-07 91.1
2012-08 92.3
2012-09 90.1
2012-10 90.4
2012-11 88.8
2012-12 88.4
2013-01 91.2
2013-02 87.7
2013-03 86.8
2013-04 84.9
2013-05 84.6
2013-06 87.5
2013-07 88.7
2013-08 89.4
2013-09 90.9
2013-10 93.4
2013-11 91.9
2013-12 94.0
2014-01 94.3
2014-02 93.6
2014-03 94.5
2014-04 97.4
2014-05 96.2
2014-06 94.5
2014-07 94.9
2014-08 93.5
2014-09 93.7
2014-10 93.6
2014-11 93.4
2014-12 93.9
2015-01 92.9
2015-02 95.2
2015-03 94.4
2015-04 96.8
2015-05 96.9
2015-06 98.8
2015-07 99.4
2015-08 100.2
2015-09 99.9
2015-10 100.3
2015-11 101.4
2015-12 100.6
2016-01 101.8
2016-02 100.4
2016-03 99.2
2016-04 100.1
2016-05 102.0
2016-06 101.3
2016-07 104.2
2016-08 103.1
2016-09 104.8
2016-10 105.0
2016-11 105.1
2016-12 106.8
2017-01 105.4
2017-02 104.4
2017-03 107.5
2017-04 106.6
2017-05 107.2
2017-06 108.0
2017-07 107.4
2017-08 105.7
2017-09 107.0
2017-10 108.8
2017-11 108.6
2017-12 109.1
2018-01 109.5
2018-02 110.1
2018-03 109.8
2018-04 108.9
2018-05 109.1
2018-06 110.1
2018-07 108.3
2018-08 107.7
2018-09 107.4
2018-10 107.3
2018-11 105.5
2018-12 104.7
2019-01 105.1
2019-02 107.0
2019-03 107.0
2019-04 106.8
2019-05 104.6
2019-06 106.2
2019-07 105.9
2019-08 104.3

French employment climate composite indicator

  • Source: INSEE.

The turning point indicator points out a favourable short-term economic outlook

The turning point indicator for the French economy as a whole remains in the area indicating a favourable short-term economic outlook.

Turning point indicators

Turning point indicators
Apr. 19 May 19 June 19 July 19 Aug. 19
France 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0
Manufacturing -0.1 0.8 0.1 0.3 0.7
Building construction 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.9
Services 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7
Wholesale trade - 0.9 - 0.1 -
  • Source: INSEE, Business tendency surveys

Turning-point indicator

Turning-point indicator
Turning-point indicator
2010-01 0.63
2010-02 0.52
2010-03 0.61
2010-04 0.83
2010-05 0.92
2010-06 0.8
2010-07 0.86
2010-08 0.99
2010-09 0.96
2010-10 0.98
2010-11 0.92
2010-12 0.99
2011-01 0.99
2011-02 0.99
2011-03 0.98
2011-04 0.89
2011-05 0.43
2011-06 0.65
2011-07 0.58
2011-08 -0.95
2011-09 -1.0
2011-10 -0.78
2011-11 -0.69
2011-12 -0.55
2012-01 -0.44
2012-02 -0.85
2012-03 0.64
2012-04 0.2
2012-05 -0.73
2012-06 -0.9
2012-07 -0.77
2012-08 -0.58
2012-09 -0.47
2012-10 -0.98
2012-11 -0.8
2012-12 -0.62
2013-01 -0.53
2013-02 -0.82
2013-03 -1.0
2013-04 -0.98
2013-05 -0.04
2013-06 0.41
2013-07 0.85
2013-08 0.99
2013-09 0.99
2013-10 0.81
2013-11 0.07
2013-12 0.38
2014-01 0.86
2014-02 0.75
2014-03 0.98
2014-04 0.63
2014-05 0.41
2014-06 0.29
2014-07 0.36
2014-08 0.33
2014-09 0.36
2014-10 -0.13
2014-11 0.14
2014-12 0.13
2015-01 0.01
2015-02 0.0
2015-03 0.4
2015-04 0.64
2015-05 0.67
2015-06 0.61
2015-07 0.74
2015-08 0.86
2015-09 0.71
2015-10 0.7
2015-11 0.64
2015-12 0.6
2016-01 0.88
2016-02 0.8
2016-03 0.71
2016-04 0.68
2016-05 0.73
2016-06 0.15
2016-07 0.39
2016-08 0.42
2016-09 0.86
2016-10 0.88
2016-11 0.79
2016-12 0.82
2017-01 0.73
2017-02 0.93
2017-03 0.4
2017-04 0.71
2017-05 0.63
2017-06 0.91
2017-07 0.88
2017-08 0.96
2017-09 0.94
2017-10 0.86
2017-11 0.83
2017-12 0.99
2018-01 0.92
2018-02 0.5
2018-03 0.66
2018-04 0.64
2018-05 0.6
2018-06 0.88
2018-07 0.75
2018-08 0.7
2018-09 0.73
2018-10 0.63
2018-11 0.76
2018-12 0.65
2019-01 0.87
2019-02 0.81
2019-03 0.93
2019-04 0.41
2019-05 0.97
2019-06 0.87
2019-07 0.8
2019-08 0.96

Turning-point indicator

  • Note: close to +1 (resp. –1), the indicator shows a favourable business climate (resp. unfavourable). The uncertainty area is between –0.3 and +0.3.
  • Source: INSEE.

Revisions

Compared to their first estimate last month, the business climate indicator in services and the employment climate in July 2019 have been revised downwards by one point. These revisions result mainly from the integration of late answers from businesses. The other climate indicators are unchanged.

Encadré

For further information

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 24 September 2019 at 08:45 am

Documentation

Abbreviated Methodology (pdf, 130 Ko)

The business climate and turning point indicators summarise the information provided by the surveys in manufacturing, services, trade (retail and wholesale), and construction. The business climate is built from 26 balances of opinion from these surveys while the turning point indicator is built from 14 balances of opinion from surveys in manufacturing, services and construction. The employment indicator is based on the 10 balances of employment, past and expected, from the surveys in manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction.

The balances of opinion concerning employment in services that are used in the employment climate distinguish the services excluding temporary work employment sector from temporary work agencies. For the latter, the balances on past and expected workforce size are not weighted, unlike the other sectors.

Next issue: 24 September 2019 at 08:45 am


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