30 juillet 2019
N° 2019-202

French GDP rose by 0.2% in Q2 2019Quarterly national accounts - first estimate - second quarter 2019

In Q2 2019, GDP in volume terms decelerated slightly: +0.2% after +0.3%.

Household consumption expenditures decelerated (+0.2% after +0.4%), while total gross fixed capital formation accelerated sharply (GFCF: +0.9% after +0.5%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated slightly: it contributed 0.4 points to GDP growth, after 0.3 points in the previous quarter.

Informations rapides
No 202
Paru le : Paru le 30/07/2019
Prochaine parution le : 30/10/2019 at 07:30 - third quarter 2019
Informations rapides  No 202 - juillet 2019

In Q2 2019, GDP in volume terms decelerated slightly: +0.2% after +0.3%.

Household consumption expenditures decelerated (+0.2% after +0.4%), while total gross fixed capital formation accelerated sharply (GFCF: +0.9% after +0.5%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes accelerated slightly: it contributed 0.4 points to GDP growth, after 0.3 points in the previous quarter.

Imports remained almost stable in Q1 (+0.1% after +1.1%) and exports grew at the same pace than previously (+0.2%). All in all, foreign trade balance did not contribute to GDP growth: 0.0 points, after −0.3 points during the previous quarter. Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.2 points after +0.3 points).

GDP and its main components

GDP and its main components ()
Consumption GFCF Inventory changes Net foreign trade GDP
2016-Q1 0.67 0.21 -0.36 0.11 0.6
2016-Q2 0.17 -0.04 -0.65 0.23 -0.3
2016-Q3 0.09 0.1 0.42 -0.38 0.2
2016-Q4 0.61 0.21 -0.43 0.21 0.6
2017-Q1 0.19 0.53 0.78 -0.68 0.8
2017-Q2 0.28 0.21 -0.55 0.76 0.7
2017-Q3 0.45 0.28 0.12 -0.16 0.7
2017-Q4 0.14 0.19 -0.04 0.44 0.7
2018-Q1 0.13 0.0 -0.01 0.12 0.2
2018-Q2 -0.09 0.18 0.16 -0.06 0.2
2018-Q3 0.24 0.23 -0.4 0.24 0.3
2018-Q4 0.25 0.13 -0.22 0.23 0.4
2019-Q1 0.22 0.12 0.28 -0.3 0.3
2019-Q2 0.17 0.21 -0.15 0.01 0.2

GDP and its main components

  • Source: INSEE.

GDP and its main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
GDP and its main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2018 2019 (ovhg)
GDP 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.7 1.0
Imports -0.2 1.1 1.1 0.1 1.2 2.1
Household consumption expenditure 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.9
General government’s consumption expenditure 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7
GFCF 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.9 2.8 2.4
Of which non-financial corporations and unincorporated enterprises 1.5 0.8 0.7 1.2 3.9 3.3
Households 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.1 2.0 0.3
General government 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.8 2.4 2.6
Exports 0.6 1.8 0.2 0.2 3.5 2.1
Contributions:
Internal demand excluding inventory changes 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.3 1.2
Inventory changes -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1
Net foreign trade 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.7 0.0
  • This growth rate is seasonally and working-day adjusted; volumes are chain-linked previous-year-prices volumes.
  • Source: Insee

Total production kept increasing

Production of goods and services grew at almost the same pace as in the two previous quarters (+0.4% after +0.5% during three quarters). It was stable in goods (+0.0% after +0.5%), while it grew at the same pace in services (+0.5%).

Output in manufactured goods fell back this quarter (−0.4% after +0.5%), mainly because production of refineries (one of them being in maintenance) and in transport equipment fell back. Production in construction decelerated (+0.3% after +0.6%).

Production, consumption and GFCF: main components

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Production, consumption and GFCF: main components (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2018 2019 (ovhg)
Production of branches 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 2.0 1.5
Goods 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.8
Manufactured industry 0.6 0.2 0.5 -0.4 0.6 0.6
Construction 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.8 1.6
Market services 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 3.1 1.9
Non-market services 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7
Household consumption 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.9
Food products 0.3 0.0 -1.1 -0.2 -1.4 -1.6
Energy 0.3 -0.4 0.9 0.8 -1.0 0.4
Engineered goods -0.3 -0.3 0.7 -0.3 0.7 0.4
Services 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 1.9 1.5
GFCF 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.9 2.8 2.4
Manufactured goods 1.4 -0.3 1.7 1.3 2.1 3.5
Construction 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.5 1.7
Market services 1.7 1.2 -0.3 1.0 4.9 2.5
  • Source: Insee

Household consumption slowed down

Household consumption slowed down in Q2 2019 (+0.2% after +0.4%): consumption of goods remained flat (+0.0% after +0.1%) while consumption of services decelerated (+0.3% after +0.6%), due to a slow inexpenditure onaccommodation and food services.

Regarding goods, the decline in the expenditures on engineered goods (−0.3% after +0.7%) is linked to the fall in carpurchases. Expenditures on energy remained dynamic (+0.8% after +0.9%) driven by some below average temperatures in may after a mild winter. Finally, expenditures on food decreased at a slower pace than in the previous quarter (−0.2% after −1.1%).

Corporate investment accelerated slightly, household investment remained slack

In Q2 2019, total GFCF grew at a faster pacethan in the previous quarter (+0.9% after +0.5%). Corporate investment accelerated (+1.2% after +0.7%): spendings in information-communication and business services bounced back. Conversely, household investment barely increased (+0.1% after +0.1%).

Foreign trade balance did not contribute to GDP growth

Imports remained slack after a dynamic first quarter (+0.1% after +1.1%): equipment goods spendings compensated the decrease in energy expenditures. Exports grew at the same pace than in the previous quarter (+0.2% after +0.2%). All in all, foreign trade did not contribute to GDP growth after a negative contribution during the previous quarter (0.0 point after −0.3 points).

Changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth

In Q2 2019, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth: −0.2 points (after +0.3 points).

Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account

percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data
Households’ disposable income and ratios of households’ account (percentage change from previous period, working-day and seasonally adjusted data)
2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2018 2019 (ovhg)
HDI 0.7 1.4 1.1 2.7 2.8
HDI (purchasing power) 0.3 1.2 0.9 1.2 2.2
HDI by cu* (purchasing power) 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.8
Adjusted HDI (purchasing power) 0.3 1.0 0.8 1.2 1.8
Saving rate (level) 14.2 14.9 15.4 14.2
Financial saving rate (level) 3.9 4.8 5.4 4.0
  • * cu: consumption unit
  • Source: Insee

Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account

level (in percent), WDA-SA data
Ratios of non-financial corporations’s account (level (in percent), WDA-SA data)
2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2018
Profit share 31.2 31.5 32.6 31.2
Investment ratio 24.3 24.4 24.3 24.1
Savings ratio 23.1 22.3 24.1 22.6
Self-financing ratio 94.9 91.8 99.2 93.7
  • Source: Insee

Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations

level, WDA-SA data
Expenditure, receipts and net borrowing of public administrations (level, WDA-SA data)
2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2018
In billions of euros
Total expenditure 329.6 332.0 333.1 1318.8
Total receipts 313.2 316.4 311.6 1259.1
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -16.4 -15.6 -21.5 -59.6
In % of GDP
Net lending (+) or borrowing (–) -2.8 -2.6 -3.6 -2.5
  • Source: Insee

Revisions

The GDP growth estimate for Q1 2019 is confirmed at +0.3%. Slight revisions in different aggregates offset each other; they are mainly due to the revision of indicators and to the update of seasonal adjustment coefficients.

Encadré

To go further

Next publication : August 29, 2019 at 08:45 a.m.

Documentation

Methodology (pdf, 140 Ko)


: bureau-de-presse@insee.fr
: